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Here’s what next as Anthropic’s most powerful AI model leaked via unsecured data cache

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Here's what next as Anthropic's most powerful AI model leaked via unsecured data cache

Anthropic is testing the most powerful AI model it has ever built, and the world wasn’t supposed to know yet.

A data leak reported by Fortune on Thursday revealed that the AI lab behind Claude has trained a new model called “Mythos,” which it internally describes as “by far the most powerful AI model we’ve ever developed.”

The model was discovered in a draft blog post left in an unsecured, publicly searchable data cache, alongside nearly 3,000 other unpublished assets, according to cybersecurity researchers who reviewed the material.

Anthropic confirmed the model’s existence after Fortune’s inquiry, calling it “a step change” in AI performance and “the most capable we’ve built to date.” The company said it is being trialed by “early access customers” and acknowledged that a “human error” in its content management system caused the leak.

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The draft blog post introduced a new model tier called “Capybara,” described as larger and more capable than Anthropic’s existing Opus models, which were previously its most powerful.

“Compared to our previous best model, Claude Opus 4.6, Capybara gets dramatically higher scores on tests of software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity, among others,” the draft said.

It’s the cybersecurity dimension that matters most for the crypto industry. The draft blog post said the model “poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks,” a framing that has direct implications for blockchain security, smart contract auditing, and the escalating arms race between attackers and defenders in DeFi.

This week alone, Ripple announced an AI-driven security overhaul for the XRP Ledger after an AI-assisted red team uncovered more than 10 vulnerabilities in its 13-year-old codebase. Ethereum launched a dedicated post-quantum security hub backed by eight years of research.

And the Resolv stablecoin lost its peg after an attacker exploited a minting contract with no oracle checks and single-key access control, the kind of infrastructure failure that more capable AI tools could potentially identify before an attacker does, or exploit faster than defenders can respond.

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For the AI token market, the leak raises a different question. Bittensor’s decentralized network recently released Covenant-72B, a model that competes with Meta’s Llama 2 70B, triggering a 90% rally in TAO and driving subnet tokens to a combined market cap of $1.47 billion.

A “step change” from a centralized lab like Anthropic resets the benchmark that decentralized AI projects need to match. The competitive distance between what a well-funded corporate lab can build and what a permissionless network can produce just got wider.

Anthropic said it is “being deliberate” about the model’s release given its capabilities. The draft blog noted the model is expensive to run and not yet ready for general availability. The company removed public access to the data cache after Fortune contacted it.

The leak itself is its own cautionary tale. A company building what it describes as an AI model with unprecedented cybersecurity capabilities left the announcement of that model in an unsecured, publicly searchable data store due to human error. The irony needs no elaboration.

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Goliath Mainnet Is Live: Onyx App Now Supports XCN Liquid Staking, Bridging, and Swaps

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Goliath mainnet is now live and fully integrated into the Onyx App for real-world DeFi use.
  • XCN liquid staking auto-accrues rewards, removing manual claims and boosting capital efficiency.
  • The native bridge enables seamless XCN transfers between Ethereum ERC-20 and Goliath networks.
  • Goliath runs on aBFT consensus, supporting payments, governance, healthcare, and supply chain use cases.

Goliath mainnet is now live and fully integrated into the Onyx App. The launch marks a major step forward for the Onyx ecosystem. Users can now access bridging, liquid staking, and swapping at app.onyx.org.

The XCN token retains its native Ethereum ERC-20 support alongside the new mainnet. This release brings production-ready consensus, staking, and cross-chain interoperability into real-world use for the first time.

Liquid Staking and Swapping Now Available Across the Network

The Onyx Protocol team announced liquid staking integration directly within the updated Onyx App. Users can stake XCN and maintain liquidity at the same time.

Rewards accumulate automatically through a cumulative index, removing the need for manual claims. When users unstake, they receive their XCN and accrued rewards in one transaction.

The swap feature currently supports XCN, ETH, and USDC on the mainnet. Swaps are accessible when the new network is selected within the app.

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This adds capital efficiency to the staking model already in place. The combined tools position the platform as a functional DeFi infrastructure layer.

Onyx Protocol confirmed the development on social media, stating that users can now access Goliath bridging, XCN liquid staking, and swaps at app.onyx.org.

The team also confirmed that XCN will remain the default Ethereum ERC-20 token alongside the new chain. This dual structure allows users to operate across both networks without disruption.

The staking model is built around modern DeFi standards. Capital efficiency remains central to the overall infrastructure design.

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Native Bridge Enables XCN Transfers Between Ethereum and Goliath

The native bridge now allows XCN transfers between Ethereum and the mainnet. Users can move assets across both chains through the Onyx App directly.

The bridge supports the ERC-20 standard on one end and the native asset on the other. This setup makes cross-chain activity more accessible for everyday users.

The network operates on asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerance, or aBFT, consensus. This architecture delivers high throughput, deterministic finality, and fair transaction ordering.

Tamper-proof execution is also built into the core design. These properties support use cases such as cross-border payments, healthcare audits, and supply chain verification.

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The team outlined the next development phase following the mainnet launch. Plans include expanding validator participation and enhancing cross-chain capabilities further.

Developer ecosystem growth and real-world application scaling are also on the roadmap. The project aims to serve mission-critical industries across multiple sectors.

With the network now operational, the Onyx ecosystem moves into a new phase of growth. Staking, bridging, and swapping are now consolidated within one platform.

Further updates are expected as the validator set expands. The XCN token continues to anchor the ecosystem across both Ethereum and Goliath.

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MSTR Stock Slides; Director Share Sale Signifies New Pressure

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Crypto Breaking News

Filing Details Emerge

The leakage indicated that Patten had exercised stock options that were awarded to him in 2016 and then sold the stocks. The filing indicated that Fidelity Broking Services was the one that transacted the transaction. Further, the sale seemed small in relation to the previous insider deals Several of the executives have sold shares in March, and this has raised concerns in the market. Phong Le, the chief executive, Andrew Kang, the head of finance, and the former executive, Wei Ming Shao, liquidated holdings. Also, there are executives who have made more than one deal in the same time.

Share issuance has been being followed by investors associated with the Bitcoin strategy of the company. The company has increased its capital base by way of equity offerings to expand its crypto assets. Therefore, the constant line of dilution has exerted pressure on the performance of the stock. The MicroStrategy shares have closed at the end of the last trading session, which was a sign of a general weakness in the market. The share fell by over four percent and settled around one hundred and thirty three dollars. In addition, the trading volumes remained lower than the average in the recent past.

Pre-market statistics indicated further decreases, as shares went down by approximately 2 per cent. The price got nearer to wiping out the gains realised earlier in the month. Therefore, the share has fallen drastically on an annual and yearly basis. Various companies have also reduced their price expectations in accordance with the recent trends. Citigroup, Bernstein and Mizuho analysts reduced forecasts. Nevertheless, one analyst had a higher long-term goal even with the type of near-term pressure.

Bitcoin Adds Pressure

The movement of prices of Bitcoin has also affected the stock direction of MicroStrategy. The cryptocurrency fell in the last session in the course of options expiry. Furthermore, the level of trading has gone up because the prices have been going in a narrow range. The world market has demonstrated signs of reduction of risks both in equities and in digital assets. This has been a contributing factor to the fall in the MicroStrategy shares in the recent past. Moreover, the mood of investors has not been optimistic due to the volatility that persists.

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Insider sales, analyst revisions, and Bitcoin weakness are still a pressure on the MicroStrategy stock. The recent revelation has contributed to the near-term performance issues. The stock is therefore under close observation as the market conditions change.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Is Bitcoin Price Finally Heading Below $60,000? Here’s What Technical Charts Show

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Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped roughly 9% since briefly touching $72,000 on March 25, erasing all 30-day gains and entering negative territory at -2.6% over the month. It is currently trading flat over the past 24 hours near $66,900.

The decline produced a bearish breakdown of a pattern on the 12-hour chart. However, a hidden bullish divergence suggests a short-term bounce is possible. Whether that bounce has enough fuel to clear the overhead supply depends on the on-chain data.

Head and Shoulders Breaks Down on the 12-Hour Chart

The 12-hour BTC price chart shows a head and shoulders pattern that has been developing since late February. The neckline sat near $67,700, and the breakdown happened on March 27.

BTC Head and Shoulders Breakdown
BTC Head and Shoulders Breakdown: TradingView

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

On paper, the pattern’s measured move points to a 12% correction from the neckline. If realized, that would push Bitcoin price below the $60,000 psychological mark, targeting the $59,400 zone.

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However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, offers a counter-reading. Between February 28 and March 27, the price formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low.

That hidden bullish divergence, which typically hints at trend continuation rather than reversal, has already produced a 1.87% bounce from the recent low.

RSI Hidden Bullish Divergence
RSI Hidden Bullish Divergence: TradingView

The divergence suggests the floor near $65,000 may hold temporarily. However, the bounce faces a wall of supply directly overhead, and the whales who would normally push through it are not providing enough conviction.

Over 6% of Supply Sits Between $66,900 and $69,400

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), a Glassnode metric that maps the price at which Bitcoin’s current supply was last transacted, reveals three dense clusters directly above the current price.

At $66,900 (close to the current price), roughly 2.37% of the total supply last changed hands. At $68,100, another 1.96% sits. And at $69,400, a further 1.96%. Combined, approximately 6.29% of the BTC supply is concentrated in a $2,500 range just above where Bitcoin trades now.

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BTC UTXO Realized Price Distribution
BTC UTXO Realized Price Distribution: Glassnode

These clusters act as resistance because holders who bought at those prices and are currently sitting near breakeven tend to sell into any bounce to exit at minimal loss.

Whale behavior confirms how alarming these Bitcoin supply zones are currently. The largest cohort holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC reduced their stash from 675,200 to 670,000 on March 24, a 5,200 BTC drop.

The mid-tier cohort (10,000 to 100,000) dipped and recovered, ending roughly flat at 2.25 million. Only the smallest whale tier (1,000 to 10,000) added marginally, rising from 4.21 million to 4.22 million.

BTC Whale Cohort Balances
BTC Whale Cohort Balances: Santiment

The net effect across all three cohorts is a marginal addition of roughly 4,800 BTC. However, the conviction picture is weaker than that number suggests.

The biggest wallets, which carry the most market-moving weight, reduced exposure by 5,200 BTC. The smallest tier’s 10,000 BTC addition does not offset that in terms of directional influence, because large-holder distribution historically precedes further weakness, while smaller-tier accumulation often reflects dip-buying that gets absorbed by overhead supply.

That means any bounce from the hidden bullish divergence is likely to stall within the $66,900 to $69,400 range (the supply warning we highlighted earlier).

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Bitcoin Price Forecast and the $66,600 Line

The most immediate deciding level for Bitcoin is $66,600. Holding above it means the immediate supply cluster has not yet triggered mass selling, yet. A bounce from here could push toward $68,700 and the $70,000 psychological level.

However, $70,000 would require clearing all three supply clusters. Given the weak whale conviction, any bounce under $70,000 remains at risk of another sell wave. The bearish structure only weakens above $72,000, the right shoulder high.

On the downside, losing $66,600 opens the path to $65,200 and $63,300. Below that, the head-and-shoulders measured move of roughly 12% targets the $59,400 zone, pushing Bitcoin below $60,000 for the first time since the February lows.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, $66,600 separates a shallow bounce toward $69,400 from a measured move breakdown below $60,000.

The post Is Bitcoin Price Finally Heading Below $60,000? Here’s What Technical Charts Show appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Outperforms Inflation 97% of the Time, Says Bitmine CEO Tom Lee

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin has outperformed inflation 97% of the time, far exceeding gold’s 56% performance.
  • Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may drive investor interest toward Bitcoin.
  • Ethereum’s adoption by Wall Street and AI systems could increase its long-term value.
  • Bitmine’s Ethereum holdings, staking, and venture investments position it for institutional growth.

Bitmine CEO Tom Lee emphasized Bitcoin’s performance against inflation at the Futu Investment Exhibition. He stated that since its creation, Bitcoin has outperformed inflation 97% of the time, compared to gold’s 56%.

Lee highlighted that this consistency makes Bitcoin a reliable store of value, attracting institutional attention, especially as the crypto winter shows signs of ending.

Bitcoin’s Inflation Resilience and Market Context

According to Lee, macroeconomic conditions are shaping investor behavior. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices may slow global growth while benefiting the U.S. economy.

This environment encourages capital allocation to assets correlated with technology and growth, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s long-term track record as an inflation hedge reinforces its appeal. Lee noted that gold, historically seen as a safe haven, has underperformed in comparison, creating a shift in institutional preferences. During the event, Tom Lee highlighted, “Bitcoin outperforms traditional inflation hedges over decades.”

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Ethereum’s performance was also discussed, showing patterns similar to past market bottoms in the S&P 500. Analysis of Ethereum’s realized price suggests undervaluation relative to historical recovery points. Lee pointed out that these conditions may support renewed investor interest in crypto markets overall.

Investor behavior is responding to these signals. Reduced sell-side pressure, growing on-chain activity, and improved market sentiment suggest digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, are positioned for potential recovery and broader adoption.

Ethereum Prospects and Bitmine’s Strategy

Lee outlined Ethereum’s emerging role in traditional finance. Wall Street adoption is a primary factor driving future value.

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Tokenization allows continuous trading, increased collateral mobility, and more efficient financial processes. Ethereum is viewed as the standard platform enabling these transformations.

AI developments also strengthen Ethereum’s potential. Agentic systems require decentralized identities and instant settlement, which blockchain networks can provide.

Ethereum’s smart accounts are being adapted to support autonomous applications. A tweet during the discussion noted, “Ethereum is preparing for AI and decentralized financial integration.”

Bitmine itself is strategically positioned to leverage these trends. The company maintains significant Ethereum holdings, high trading volumes, and pursues yield-generating strategies. Its Maven initiative focuses on large-scale staking to increase institutional returns.

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Investments in ventures like Beast Industries and Orbs, which link to projects such as Worldcoin, further expand Bitmine’s market reach.

Ethereum price targets range from $12,000 to over $62,000, potentially translating to Bitmine share prices between $500 and $1,500, reinforcing the company’s growth prospects.

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Crypto’s future is bright in the context of AI’s assault on SaaS, says Kraken-backed SPAC

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Crypto's future is bright in the context of AI's assault on SaaS, says Kraken-backed SPAC

Don’t be fooled by the prolonged crypto bear market, the industry remains a sound investment and less at risk from replacement by AI than traditional software as a service (SaaS) operations, according to Ravi Tanuku, CEO of KRAKacquisition Corp. (KRAKU), a blank check company backed by U.S. crypto exchange Kraken.

The company, a Nasdaq-listed special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) sponsored by Kraken with venture firms Natural Capital and Tribe Capital, closed its $345 million IPO in January, and is now ready to explore deals with crypto-native firms valued between $2 billion and $10 billion, Tanuku said in an interview.

This might sound ironic, given that Kraken’s parent Payward only this month delayed its much-anticipated IPO as crypto markets collapsed: The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is on track for a sixth straight monthly drop. Tanuku declined to comment on Kraken’s IPO plans, but said he sees things like stablecoins and payments as the next best story after AI, and crypto as a clear survivor amid the total disruption hitting SaaS companies, which traditionally formed part of the IPO pipeline.

Saas’ very existence now seems to be under threat from rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and the potential for machines to write code — one of many areas of skilled labor that could be undone by AI.

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“If you were a SaaS company and you wanted to go public and you didn’t go public, you have a bigger problem now, which is whether or not you have an answer for AI,” Tanuku said in an interview. “That’s not like crypto or bitcoin going from 70k to 80k. It’s a more existential, longer-term question that is much harder to shake.”

So if the money that’s not being invested in AI isn’t going to SaaS, does that mean crypto’s next up? Not really, Tanuku said. But it does mean investors are looking for other places to deploy.

“What I would say is the digital-asset thematic is probably one of the stronger secular stories in the market after AI … AI is the best story. Nobody’s going to deny that,” he said.

So what sort of crypto native opportunities is KRAK looking at, and does it include much in the way of AI crossover?

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Tanuku said he’s looking at areas where crypto and AI naturally intersect. He mentioned the well-documented excitement over AI agentic commerce, and also raised the possibility of tokenization assisting in feeding AI’s growth.

“I’m curious if somebody doesn’t start to float tokens to figure out how to finance some of this infrastructure, because the build-out is so expensive, there might be interesting ways to provide people yield and returns in a tokenized manner,” Tanuku said.

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Rising XRP Whales Tighten Risk-Reward, Foreshadow Price Move

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Crypto Breaking News

XRP’s risk-adjusted performance turned modestly positive on March 26, marking a shift after months of flat-to-negative readings. A 30-day average return of 0.00063 accompanies a Sharpe ratio of 0.0267, suggesting that current gains are modest but still outpaced by risk. On-chain data shows persistent accumulation by large holders, implying underlying demand even as price action remains subdued.

Analysts point to a broader pattern: on-chain buying and a slowly improving risk profile could set the stage for a steadier path higher, even if price upside remains constrained in the near term.

Key takeaways

  • The XRP Sharpe ratio moved into positive territory for the first time in months on March 26, supported by a 30-day average return of 0.00063.
  • Whale activity has remained firm, with CryptoQuant data showing XRP inflows averaging about $9 million per day over the last 30 days, continuing a pronounced accumulation phase that began in late February.
  • Open interest surged 14.8% in the 24 hours to March 26, signaling renewed trader participation, alongside repeated long-liquidation spikes above $2 million in recent sessions.
  • XRP’s price structure has shifted to a bearish bias: the asset invalidated its previously bullish ascending triangle and shed about 13.63% over ten days, with near-term support at $1.27 and a yearly low near $1.11 in focus.
  • Past patterns suggest that prolonged accumulation can precede stronger upside, as seen in Q2 2025 when accumulation preceded a rally to a $3.65 high on July 18, 2025; watchers will want to see if the current phase leads to a similar outcome.

Positive risk-adjusted returns amid on-chain demand

CryptoQuant-derived data indicate that XRP’s improved risk-adjusted profile aligns with a pickup in trading activity. Arab Chain, in a CryptoQuant quicktake, framed the recent Sharpe ratio improvement as part of a gradual rebalancing that could limit downside for holders. However, the analyst cautioned that a return to negative territory would signal renewed volatility and fading momentum.

“If the indicator falls back into negative territory, it could signal a return of volatility and weakening momentum.”

While the short-term signals point to hedged risk, the long-run picture suggests a more constructive tilt if accumulation continues. The last substantial accumulation wave in Q2 2025 culminated in XRP’s expansion rally to an all-time high of $3.65 on July 18, 2025, underscoring how inflows can precede meaningful upside in subsequent months.

Whale flows and market momentum

On-chain trackers show that XRP whale inflows have remained robust, with the 30-day moving average holding around $9 million per day. The sustained demand has persisted since February 27, marking the longest accumulation stretch in months and echoing a broader pattern seen during prior cycles when whales stepped in ahead of bigger price moves.

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That trend matters for investors because it points to durable demand that could underpin market returns even if price volatility remains elevated. The question for traders is whether this accumulation translates into sustained upside or simply supports a slower drift higher as macro and liquidity conditions evolve.

Open interest and near-term technicals

Open interest figures reinforce a market where risk is being actively recycled. CryptoQuant data show a 14.8% rise in 24-hour open interest on March 26, the strongest such move since March 4, reflecting renewed participation from long and short positions and a pattern of consecutive long liquidations—$2.5 million on March 18, roughly $2.45 million on March 21, and about $2.15 million on March 26.

From a price-structure perspective, XRP has broken from a bullish ascending triangle, and the prior ten-day slide of around 13.6% points to a bearish bias in the near term. If the current dynamic persists, traders will likely test support around $1.27, with a deeper look toward the yearly low near $1.11 in the weeks ahead.

The combination of a positive risk-adjusted metric and steady whale inflows paints a nuanced picture: a market where demand is accumulating even as prices wobble, potentially laying a groundwork for a more durable move if buyers sustain their activity.

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Looking ahead, buyers will want to see whether the positive risk-adjusted read holds and whether whale demand remains steady. The next critical junctures to watch include whether XRP can sustain levels above near-term support and whether accumulation pulses continue to shape the risk landscape in the coming weeks.

Past patterns offer a useful lens: the accumulation phase seen in Q2 2025 preceded a rally to an all-time high later that year, suggesting that continued demand could precede stronger upside if sustained by shifting market dynamics.

Looking ahead, traders will watch if the positive risk-adjusted reads endure and whether whale accumulation remains steady; a sustained move higher will depend on whether demand translates into durable upside beyond the near-term support.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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MetaComp Upgrades StableX for AI-Driven Hybrid Finance

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Crypto Breaking News

Key Insights

  • MetaComp launches AI-driven StableX upgrade to unify compliance, payments, and digital asset operations
  • VisionX engine strengthens AML/CFT with multi-layer analytics and near-zero false clean rates
  • AgentX and KYA enable regulated AI automation across payments, treasury, and compliance workflows

Singapore-based MetaComp has introduced major upgrades to its StableX Network, aiming to strengthen compliance, payments, and wealth management across fiat and stablecoin systems. The move positions StableX as a compliance-first platform designed to bridge traditional finance and digital assets.

The upgrade integrates three core components: VisionX Engine, AgentX AI layer, and the KYA governance framework, focused on enabling regulated, AI-driven financial infrastructure.

VisionX Engine Enhances AML/CFT Monitoring

The Web2.5 VisionX Engine delivers multi-layered risk monitoring across identity, behavior, and network levels. Identity screening combines traditional KYC data with Web3 wallet intelligence, while behavioral analysis detects transaction anomalies.

Network screening highlights the concealed counterparty risks, offering a closer supervision of the flow of transactions. MetaComp said parallel screening across four blockchain analytics providers reduces false clean rates from around 25% to near zero.

The system supports both cross-border payments and digital asset transactions, allowing institutions to maintain compliance with global AML/CFT requirements.

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AgentX Powers AI Financial Execution

AgentX serves as the platform’s AI execution layer, enabling autonomous financial operations. AI agents can handle transactions, detect risks and perform operations on fiat and crypto systems.

The layer enables AI-to-AI communication, enabling automated processes in the payment, treasury and compliance operations. The most important characteristics are real-time transaction intelligence, wallet screening, compliance integration, and a modular and protocol-agnostic infrastructure.

The initial implementation, Agentic KYT, is concerned with the monitoring of transactions as an AML/CFT compliance, which expands the automation of regulation.

KYA Framework Governs AI Activity

The KYA (Know Your Agent) framework provides a regulatory mechanism over AI agents in financial systems. It ensures that AI-based processes are auditable and compliant with regulatory standards.

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MetaComp observed that Singapore Model AI Governance Framework is consistent with the given framework, and it helps to responsibly deploy agentic AI in financial services.

AI-Native Automation and Expansion Plans

Together, AgentX and KYA enable AI-native financial automation, allowing intelligent agents to independently manage payments, treasury, and compliance while remaining regulated.

The upgrade is after the $35 million Pre-A round at MetaComp. The company will increase the penetration of StableX in the Asian, Middle East, African and Latin American markets to attract the use by institutions.

MetaComp also published a whitepaper called Cross-Border Payments for SMEs: Voices in ASEAN and the Rise of Stablecoins, which states that the stablecoin is increasingly becoming an important part of enhancing the efficiency of payment.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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How AI Agents Can Reshape Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

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How AI Agents Can Reshape Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets aggregate human judgment in theory, but some of their consistent trading opportunities may end up captured by systems that move faster than any person can.

Arbitrage opportunities can show up as brief mispricings, from outcomes that temporarily fail to sum up to 100%, to short delays in how quickly markets react to new information.

Rodrigo Coelho, CEO of Edge & Node, said bots are already scanning hundreds of markets per second, a role that increasingly overlaps with more advanced AI-driven agents.

“Capturing those opportunities requires monitoring thousands of markets and executing trades almost instantly, which is why they’re largely dominated by automated systems,” Coelho told Cointelegraph.

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That makes prediction markets a natural next step for AI-driven systems built to exploit short-lived pricing gaps without human input.

AI agents can target brief gaps in prediction markets. Source: Rohan Paul

Arbitrage mechanics in prediction markets

Bitcoin and crypto prices haven’t been performing well recently, with BitMine’s Tom Lee calling the current sentiment a “mini-crypto winter.” Meanwhile, prediction markets have emerged as venues where users can bet to profit independently of broader economic conditions.

The rise of prediction markets has also seen opportunities such as what Coelho calls “latency arbitrage,” which rely on short windows too narrow for humans to manually target. He told Cointelegraph:

If there’s even a few-second delay between an event happening and the market updating, bots scan for that and place bets on the correct outcome. For that window, they have a 100% guaranteed win.”

A recent study found that Polymarket exhibits frequent pricing inconsistencies, allowing traders to construct arbitrage positions. These opportunities arise both within individual markets, where probabilities don’t sum to 100%, and across related markets with inconsistent pricing. The researchers estimated that roughly $40 million has been extracted from these inefficiencies.

Academic researchers present their findings at the International Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies. Source: CyLab/YouTube

Prediction markets are still nascent, but their technology has been improving as well. For example, Polymarket recently introduced taker fees to increase trading costs. Outcomes aren’t finalized immediately, making these strategies less reliable and not always profitable.

AI agents could amplify market manipulation risks

Aside from arbitrage, AI agents could increasingly take over activity in prediction markets, raising concerns that automated systems may replicate the same behaviors seen from humans. They are trained on human activity, after all. 

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Coelho pointed out that large players can influence outcomes by placing sizable bets on one side, and that more advanced agents could exploit similar dynamics at scale.

“If you have a large pool of money and the market is thin, you can bet on one side and sway the market, like we saw in the election when some French guy put in like [$45 million] on Donald Trump winning,” he said.

Polymarket’s open interest was highest around October and early November of 2024, during the US elections, according to Dune Analytics data. Following a sharp initial decline, it has continued to surge in popularity, with politics leading as the most popular topic, followed by sports and crypto.

Polymarket’s open interest is nearing 2024 election levels. Source: datadashboards/Dune Analytics

Related: Federal regulation looms as 11 states go after prediction markets

Pranav Maheshwari, engineer at Edge & Node, said the rapid improvement of AI agents alongside prediction markets makes such risks more urgent and called for guardrails.

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“Up until now, AI agents have medium capability and we give them a lot of permissions. With this medium capability, they have already started acting autonomously,” Maheshwari told Cointelegraph.

But in the future, AI agents will have really high capabilities. When it has really high capabilities as humans, you have to restrict their permissions.”

From execution bots to AI-driven systems

Trading itself is undergoing a shift, as automation moves from simple execution bots to more advanced, AI-assisted systems capable of identifying and acting on opportunities in real time.

The systems currently used to exploit market inefficiencies remain largely rule-based, but the tools behind them are evolving.

Archie Chaudhury, CEO of LayerLens, said most retail participants are not using AI agents directly, relying instead on chatbot interfaces like ChatGPT or Gemini for research, while more advanced users are beginning to experiment with automation.

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“Some of us simply use coding agents such as Claude Code to create automated bots or algorithms for executing trades, while others take it a step further, using autonomous tools such as OpenClaw to enable the automatic execution of trades and other policies,” he told Cointelegraph.

Related: Do Super Bowl ads predict a bubble? Dot-coms, crypto and now AI

As AI literacy among retail traders rises, agents could broaden access to strategies that were previously limited to institutions, according to Chaudhury. However, this does not eliminate competition, and large institutions are already using AI, though not always publicly.

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He added that existing large language model architectures are well suited to interpreting structured financial data, which could lower the technical barrier for building trading systems that would have previously required specialized quantitative expertise.

The same dynamics are already visible across crypto markets, where arbitrage increasingly depends on automation rather than human judgment. As these systems evolve, the edge is shifting execution speed. Those leaning on AI and automation have a clear edge over those that don’t.

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