Major dollar pairs have shifted into a corrective rebound following the sharp sell-off seen last week. The current move is largely technical in nature, driven by profit-taking as markets await a heavy run of macroeconomic data due to be released over the coming trading sessions. Trading activity remains moderate, as participants prefer to scale back directional positions ahead of key data from the US and Canada that could provide a fresh impulse for the dollar.

Overall, the present dollar correction can be viewed as a short-term pullback after a strong move rather than a reversal of the broader trend. The next direction for USD/JPY and USD/CAD will largely depend on how the market responds to upcoming macroeconomic releases, which may either confirm the resilience of the recent dollar weakness or fuel a further recovery.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has corrected higher after last week’s sharp decline, reflecting a technical rebound from local lows. On the daily timeframe, a bullish harami pattern has formed, with its follow-through supporting a rise towards the 156.00 level. If the current upward momentum remains intact, a test of key resistance in the 156.60–156.80 area is possible. However, unfavourable news for the dollar could see the pair retreat back towards 154.80–155.30.

The following events may influence USD/JPY price action in the near term:

• today at 15:15 (GMT+2): US ADP non-farm employment change;
• today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US services PMI;
• tomorrow at 05:35 (GMT+2): Japan’s 30-year JGB auction.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is also showing a corrective recovery after its recent sharp decline. Technical analysis points to the potential for a retest of the 1.3700–1.3750 area, as a bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily chart. At the same time, a sustained move below 1.3600 could signal a resumption of the downtrend, with scope for a revisit of recent lows.

The following events may affect USD/CAD in the coming sessions:

• today at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada services PMI;
• today at 17:30 (GMT+2): US crude oil inventories;
• tomorrow at 19:25 (GMT+2): speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fresh outflow on Tuesday, pushing assets under management below the $100 billion threshold for the first time since April 2025. The decline followed $272 million in net redemptions, according to data from SoSoValue. The move comes as Bitcoin slid toward the mid-$70,000s amid a broad crypto market pullback, with the overall market capitalization retreating to about $2.64 trillion from roughly $3.11 trillion in the previous week, per CoinGecko. The setback underscores ongoing volatility in securitized exposure to the leading crypto asset, even as investors rotate into non-Bitcoin assets and altcoins show pockets of life.

The week’s sell-off was not uniform across the market. While BTC ETFs faced renewed outflows, funds tracking altcoins registered small inflows, signaling a divergence in investor appetite between securitized exposure to Bitcoin and exposure to other crypto assets. The broader backdrop remains one of macro- and risk-off pressure, with traders weighing the implications of ETF mechanics, regulatory signals, and shifting liquidity in a market still trying to find a steadier footing after a rapid rally and pullback.

Key takeaways

• Spot BTC ETF assets under management fell below $100 billion for the first time since April 2025, following $272 million in outflows.
• The broader crypto market cap dropped to $2.64 trillion from $3.11 trillion over the previous week, reflecting continued volatility.
• Altcoin ETFs saw modest inflows: Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) $14 million, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) $19.6 million, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) $1.2 million.
• Bitcoin trades below the ETF creation cost basis of $84,000, a dynamic that can constrain new ETF share creation and influence flows.
• Analysts emphasize that the ETF sell-off is unlikely to trigger a broad wave of liquidations, with some expecting a future shift toward direct on-chain trading by institutions.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. The combination of outflows from spot BTC ETFs and a BTC price dip contributed to a weaker near-term sentiment and potential pressure on related products.

Market context: The episode reflects ongoing volatility in ETF-related flows against a backdrop of risk-off trading, with investors differentiating between securitized exposure to Bitcoin and direct or non-BTC crypto exposure. The weekly retreat in market capitalization highlights continued sensitivity to macro cues and liquidity conditions in a market still adapting to higher interest-rate environments and evolving regulatory signals.

Why it matters

The current pattern—spot BTC ETF outflows alongside modest altcoin inflows—offers a nuanced read on institutional engagement with crypto assets. While the ETF structure provides regulated access to Bitcoin, the observed outflows suggest that some investors are rebalancing risk, seeking exposure through non-securitized channels, or waiting for clearer macro signals before increasing holdings in securitized products. The contrast with altcoins indicates that market participants still differentiate between asset classes within the crypto universe, allocating capital to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana when risk appetite allows.

Institutional participants, who historically have been more likely to use securitized products, are increasingly discussed in terms of a potential shift toward on-chain trading and direct asset ownership. That shift could reshape liquidity dynamics and pricing for both spot products and the ETFs that track them. The comments from industry insiders underscore a belief that the next phase of crypto institutional adoption may hinge less on holding securitized exposure and more on engaging with the underlying assets themselves, potentially driving deeper liquidity and new trading venues outside traditional funds.

The price action surrounding BTC—trading under the $74,000 mark while ETF creation remains suppressed by a higher cost basis—adds a layer of complexity for managers of passive crypto portfolios. Even as some investors trim exposure, others may view the current levels as a continuation of a broader re-pricing process that factors in regulatory clarity, macro liquidity, and the evolving competitive landscape among crypto investment vehicles.

Thomas Restout, CEO of institutional liquidity provider B2C2, offered a parallel view, noting that institutional ETF investors have shown resilience and patience even as flows wobble. He suggested that a substantial portion of assets could remain within ETFs, but the market is approaching a potential pivot point where some appetite could shift toward direct crypto trading. “The next level of transformation is institutions actually trading the crypto, rather than just using securitized ETFs,” Restout said recently on a Rulematch Spot On podcast. His comments point to a broader re-evaluation of how institutions allocate in crypto markets, with possible implications for liquidity provisioning and price discovery across the ecosystem.

What to watch next

• Next data release on spot BTC ETF AUM from SoSoValue and any observable shifts in creation or redemption activity.
• BTC price stabilization or further moves toward the $70k–$75k zone and how that interacts with ETF flow dynamics.
• Any regulatory updates or policy signals that could impact ETF structures or on-chain trading incentives.
• Evidence of institutional traders increasing direct exposure to crypto assets beyond securitized products.

Sources & verification

• SoSoValue data on spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management and outflows.
• CoinGecko market-cap data showing weekly changes in the global crypto sector.
• Reported inflows for altcoin ETFs: Ether, XRP, and Solana with metrics provided in the article.
• Nate Geraci’s X post discussing ETF asset retention within spot BTC ETFs.
• Thomas Restout’s comments on the Rulematch Spot On podcast regarding institutional adoption and on-chain trading.

Market reaction and key details

The market continues to grapple with the question of how institutions will allocate capital as crypto products evolve. While securitized exposure to Bitcoin remains a convenient entry point for many investors, outflows in the spot BTC ETF space highlight a cautious stance amid price volatility and a broad sell-off across risk assets. The modest inflows into Ether, XRP, and Solana indicate selective confidence in non-Bitcoin assets, suggesting investors are evaluating diversification opportunities within the crypto universe even as the largest asset experiences pressure.

Meanwhile, HASH and HYPE have declined the most over the past 24 hours after charting impressive gains lately.

Bitcoin’s adverse price actions as of late worsened yesterday when the asset tumbled to its lowest positions since early November 2024 at $73,000 before recovering by a few grand.

Most altcoins followed suit with enhanced volatility, but some, such as SOL, HYPE, and CC, have been hit harder than others.

BTC’s Latest Rollercoaster

It was just a week ago when the primary cryptocurrency challenged the $90,000 resistance ahead of the first FOMC meeting for the year. After it became official that the Fed won’t cut the rates again, BTC remained sluggish at first but started to decline in the following hours.

The escalating tension in the Middle East was also blamed for another crash that took place on Thursday when bitcoin plunged to $81,000. It bounced off to $84,000 on Friday but tumbled once again on Saturday, this time to under $75,000. Another recovery attempt followed on Monday, only to be rejected at $79,000.

Tuesday brought the latest crash, this time to a 15-month low of $73,000. It has rebounded since then to just over $76,000, but it’s still 3% down on the day. Moreover, it has lost 14% of its value weekly and a whopping 18% monthly.

Its market capitalization has plummeted to $1.525 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has declined to 57.3%.

SOL Below $100

Most larger-cap altcoins have felt the consequences of the violent market crash lately. Ethereum went from over $3,000 to $2,100 in the span of a week, before bouncing to $2,280 as of now. BNB is down to $760, while SOL has plummeted to under $100 after a 7% daily decline.

Even the recent high-flyer HYPE has retraced hard daily. The token is down by 11% to $33. CC and ZEC are also deep in the red, while XMR has gained the most from the larger caps.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has seen more than $70 billion erased in a day and is down to $2.65 trillion on CG.

Assets in spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs slipped below $100 billion on Tuesday following a fresh $272 million in outflows.

According to data from SoSoValue, the move marked the first time spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management have fallen below that level since April 2025, after peaking at about $168 billion in October

The drop came amid a broader crypto market sell-off, with Bitcoin sliding below $74,000 on Tuesday. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell from $3.11 trillion to $2.64 trillion over the past week, according to CoinGecko.

Altcoin funds secure modest inflows

The latest outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs followed a brief rebound in flows on Monday, when the products attracted $562 million in net inflows.

Still, Bitcoin funds resumed losses on Tuesday, pushing year-to-date outflows to almost $1.3 billion, coming in line with ongoing market volatility.

By contrast, ETFs tracking altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) recorded modest inflows of $14 million, $19.6 million and $1.2 million, respectively.

Is institutional adoption moving beyond ETFs?

The ongoing sell-off in Bitcoin ETFs comes as BTC trades below the ETF creation cost basis of $84,000, suggesting new ETF shares are being issued at a loss and placing pressure on fund flows.

Market observers say that the slump is unlikely to trigger further mass sell-offs in ETFs.

“My guess is vast majority of assets in spot BTC ETFs stay put regardless,” ETF analyst Nate Geraci wrote on X on Monday.

Thomas Restout, CEO of institutional liquidity provider B2C2, echoed the sentiment, noting that institutional ETF investors are generally resilient. Still, he hinted that a shift toward onchain trading may be underway.

Related: VistaShares launches Treasury ETF with options-based Bitcoin exposure

“The benefit of institutions coming in and buying ETFs is they’re far more resilient. They will sit on their views and positions for longer,” Restout said in a Rulematch Spot On podcast on Monday.

“I think the next level of transformation is institutions actually trading crypto, rather than just using securitized ETFs. We’re expecting the next wave of institutions to be the ones trading the underlying assets directly,” he noted.