Politics
Starmer says he’ll make tough decisions
The clock on the mantelpiece in the Cabinet Room ticks surprisingly loudly, marking every half-second. The moment prime ministers take their seat in the captain’s chair, time is running out.
Sir Keir Starmer wants you to believe he’s brave enough – and determined enough – to stare down the country’s long-term problems. Even if it means saying what was previously unsayable.
To have clean energy, more people will have to put up with pylons near their homes. To have more houses built, more of us will have to accept developments in the neighbourhood. His decision to take cash to help with fuel bills away from most pensioners fits into that category too.
For years, many politicians privately thought it was daft to give wealthy pensioners extra cash for their fuel bills – but it’s Sir Keir who’s now said that out loud.
He says he wants to crack down on the UK’s problems, and has a whopping majority to boot. But no government can do everything all at once.
Over the years I’ve heard the same list of “unsayables” from senior officials and politicians time and time again – issues that need fixing in the UK but aren’t ever confronted.
So what would insiders – both current and former – put on their list of issues that are still unsayable for this new government?
When it comes to health, in almost the same breath as promising to overhaul the NHS, Sir Keir says that fixing the care of the most vulnerable and elderly – the most difficult thing – will have to wait.
It was the Tories’ plan to cap social care costs, and Labour were going to stick to it. They’ve now ditched it.
Many politicians accept privately that you don’t have much hope of sorting out the NHS properly if you haven’t made major moves to improve the social care system.
Successive governments have dangled, then dropped reform. It’s no one party’s fault. It’s no one politician’s fault.
But with an ageing population and many years of pressure on public spending the problem has only become more acute. Labour has nodded sagely at the urgency of the issue. But a fundamental overhaul is on pause for now.
Another issue affecting the older generation comes up often too: the triple lock. It’s the guarantee that the state pension goes up each year by either 2.5%, inflation, or earnings growth – whichever is the highest figure.
“It’s not at all good for the country, but it is good politics,” a very senior opposition politician told me, even giggling at how wrong-headed it was in their view.
Labour had little political choice in the election but to commit to it too.
You’ll have heard Sir Keir saying repeatedly in the last few days that the winter fuel allowance cut will be offset because the triple lock, introduced by the Tories, is still in place.
You can see the political appeal to always protecting pensioners’ incomes, as one former official said, but it “bakes in rising spending with an ageing population, so, unless you suddenly get brave about tax, you have no answer.”
In other words, as there are more and more pensioners, more and more people will be guaranteed a certain hike in their income from the taxpayer.
Whether you think that’s right and proper or think, like many politicians, that it is asking for trouble, it comes with a hefty price tag that’s only growing.
Multiple sources also mentioned the serious quandary over university fees and numbers.
Millions more young people have gone to university in recent decades. For many of them, and many families, it’s been life-changing.
But it’s no secret that many institutions are struggling for cash, some even said to be on the verge of going under.
No politician would want to tell a family or a young person that they shouldn’t be allowed to attend. But as one former senior official put it bluntly, “fees need to go up or they need to find alternative money.“
Another Whitehall figure suggested the question politicians aren’t willing to ask is: should so many people go?
Though “vote for us, and we won’t help you get to university” won’t be on any leaflets any time soon.
Then, there is tax.
I’ve encountered a whole range of views on whether it’s fair to tax wealth and income so differently. Does the business tax system still work? (Not really, it’s claimed.) Shouldn’t it all be much simpler anyway? (Probably, most say.)
But also, what no politician wants to say out loud in public – but many in Westminster regularly say in private – is how wildly out of date the council tax system is, based as it is on property values from 1991.
You read that right. The size of your council tax bill, in England and Scotland, is based on what your flat or house was worth 33 years ago.
You don’t need me to tell you that property values have changed an awful lot since then, and not in a uniform way. The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies says it means the tax is “out of date, regressive, and distorted”, creating unfairness between households, and councils too.
There is no appetite in government to take a big look at the system. New Labour had a go, then backed away from any major changes.
One source claimed it was “wonkish” to believe reform was a priority, and it wouldn’t necessarily raise any extra cash that might be useful for the Treasury coffers.
But many sources reckon a revaluation is incredibly overdue, and has to take place.
There’s another whole list of anomalies in the status quo, that governments would never design now if you started with a blank page. But they haven’t got the bandwidth or desire to sort them out.
Fourty-three different police forces in England and Wales? “It’s mad,” says one insider. A maze of different types of local government – “baffling”, says another.
Then there are absolutely toxic political questions that most hardly even dare to whisper. Insiders wonder, can the model of the NHS survive for ever with an ageing population? Is it the right thing to subsidise the steel industry while it staggers on?
There are clear consequences of ignoring an unsayable.
For years, politicians didn’t want to say out loud that if you locked up more people (popular), you would also have to build more prisons (unpopular), or they would burst.
Now, the new government has been pushed to do something unpalatable – early releases on a big scale – because the unsayable went unsaid.
How far ministers will now go in being honest about any longer-term solutions for prisons? Watch this space.
This government believes that focusing on short-term politics – which create new long-term problems – is “unforgiveable”. And it seems that genuinely, ministers want to get to grips with problems that have been building up in the country for many, many years.
Yet, there is of course a limit to what they can do.
One senior figure acknowledged, “an enormous majority gives a massive advantage which is political stability – that means you can do difficult things.”
But addressing many of those long term problems is hard without a willingness or ability to spend a lot more cash, or take money away from other parts of the state.
It’s “much easier when you have the money of Thatcher 1983-87 and Blair 2001-2007”, one former official suggests.
When public finances are in trouble, they continue, “maybe it’s the right call to try to get growth first”, rather than ending up with more stubborn problems in a second term.
They remark acidly: “In a post-ideological age, no governments want to tackle these issues. The last one had 14 years to do so and didn’t.”
But if we are to believe this government’s proclamations that they really want to pursue long-term solutions for the country’s ills, perhaps more of the unsayables will need to be said out loud.
Sir Keir Starmer is making the case that ignoring problems in the long term is part of the reason for what has gone wrong.
But when he vowed to do the “difficult things now”, the reality for any prime minister is that the list of difficult things can never be complete.
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Politics
Why Britain can’t just return migrants to France
Ahead of the start of the party’s conference, Reform UK’s MPs have been repeating their claim that migrants who are intercepted while crossing the English Channel can just be taken back to France.
It’s part of the party’s four point plan to “stop the boats”.
Both the party’s leader Nigel Farage and party chairman Richard Tice have claimed that the UK is legally entitled to do this.
But BBC Verify has found no evidence that this is the case.
What did they say?
Earlier this month, Richard Tice tweeted: “Starmer needs to explain why he does not have leadership & courage to use 1982 UN Convention of Law at Sea to pick up & take back”.
On 19 September, Nigel Farage told BBC Radio Kent that part of Reform’s plan for migrants crossing the Channel in small boats would be to “take them back to France”.
In June, he said on Question Time: “We’ll pick them up in the Channel and take them back” to France.
He said he would use the Royal Marines to do this, if necessary.
But it is not clear how Reform could do this without breaching international law.
What does the law say?
According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR Convention), states are allowed to pick people up from boats if they are “found at sea in danger of being lost“.
But these laws do not allow them to be taken to another state without that country agreeing.
In fact, Article 19 of UNCLOS says that if a “foreign ship” enters another country’s territorial waters it will “be considered to be prejudicial to the peace” if “it engages in the loading or unloading of any… person contrary to the immigration laws” of that country.
BBC Verify spoke to two experts in maritime law.
James M. Turner KC, a shipping lawyer at Quadrant Chambers, told us: “The French would have to grant express permission for UK vessels to carry rescued people through their territorial waters and to leave them ashore in France”.
Ainhoa Campàs Velasco, a maritime law expert from the University of Southampton, said migrants could not be returned to French shores, “unilaterally, and without prior agreement with France”.
There is no such agreement between the UK and France.
The two countries agreed a joint action plan in 2019, which does provide for cooperation, but it does not allow one country to bring people rescued in the English Channel to the other country’s ports.
Richard Tice has repeatedly claimed that he had been advised it would be legal, but we have had no response to requests to see that advice.
We asked both the Home Office and the French authorities whether the UK would be legally entitled to pick people up and return them to France, but they would not comment.
There was one occasion in July when a British Border Force vessel was called to assist a French search and rescue operation off the coast of Gravelines in northern France.
The British vessel, together with the French ship involved, both took the people they had rescued Calais.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed that had been an operational decision taken at the time and was not a change of policy.
In 2021, the UK government considered turning back small boats intercepted in the English Channel but the plan never went ahead.
Is Belgium doing this?
On 3 September, Richard Tice said about his policy of taking people intercepted in small boats straight back to France: “We know it’s legal because the Belgian authorities have done it.”
BBC Verify spoke to the Belgian police when the claim was first made in May, and they confirmed that they have intercepted small boats, treating them “as a rescue operation”.
But they said these boats very rarely cross to the UK from the Belgian coast because of the distance to the UK and strong currents which make the crossing very dangerous.
We put the claim that the Belgian authorities have taken migrants back to France to the Federal Police in Belgium and they told us “this is not correct”.
Politics
Unite to push for winter fuel payments vote at Labour conference
Unite, one of Labour’s trade union backers, will try to force a vote on reversing the government’s cuts to the winter fuel allowance at the party’s conference in Liverpool.
The union has submitted a motion calling for “a vision where pensioners are not the first to face a new wave of cuts”.
It also urges the government to introduce a wealth tax and to end self-imposed rules which prevent borrowing to invest.
Despite criticism from opposition parties and unease among his own MPs, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defended his cut in winter fuel payments, saying “tough decisions” are needed “to stabilise the economy”.
He has also said that the impact on the 10 million pensioners losing out will be softened by a 4% increase in the state pension, due next April.
From this autumn, older people in England and Wales not on pension credit or other means-tested benefits will not get the payments, worth between £100 – £300.
Unite’s motion says that “workers and communities voted for change – a better future, not just better management and not cuts to the winter fuel allowance”.
It adds that the country should not “turn back to failed austerity”.
Mick Whelan, head of the train drivers’ Aslef union and chair of the group of Labour-backing unions said he would vote against the cut.
Speaking to Political Thinking with Nick Robinson, he said the unions would be asking the government to “change their minds”.
Asked about the relationship between unions and the government, he said: “There’ll be times when we’ll be applauding… and there’ll be other times where, as tradition, we’ll be firm but critical friends.”
Unite is understood to be confident that its motion will be put to a vote at Labour’s annual conference, which opens in Liverpool on Sunday 22 September.
Under conference rules, delegates get to vote for the topics they want to discuss. Members of the Conference Arrangements Committee, delegates and party staff then agree the wording of a final motion to be voted on.
Any vote would be non-binding, but a result that criticises government policy could embarrass the party leadership.
Unite traditionally backs Labour, but has been very critical of Sir Keir’s leadership and last year its general secretary, Sharon Graham, warned the party there were “no blank cheques”.
In 2019, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, the union donated £3m to Labour. This year it did not give anything to the central party’s campaign.
The union also refused to endorse the party’s election manifesto, saying it did not go far enough on protecting workers’ rights, and jobs in the oil and gas industry.
Labour’s annual conference will be its first since the party’s landslide victory in July’s general election.
Politics
Trump says Fed’s rate cut was ‘political move’
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, in Uniondale, New York, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Thursday the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by half of a percentage point was “a political move.”
“It really is a political move. Most people thought it was going to be half of that number, which probably would have been the right thing to do,” Trump said in an interview with Newsmax.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kicked off what is expected to be a series of interest rate cuts with an unusually large half-percentage-point reduction.
Trump said last month that U.S. presidents should have a say over decisions made by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed chair and the other six members of its board of governors are nominated by the president, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The Fed enjoys substantial operational independence to make policy decisions that wield tremendous influence over the direction of the world’s largest economy and global asset markets.
Politics
Sue Gray’s salary isn’t the problem – it’s the backstage power struggle Starmer cannot afford | Simon Jenkins
The most remarkable feature of the Sue Gray saga is not how much the Downing Street chief of staff earns, but how little Britain’s prime minister does. Keir Starmer gets just £166,786, which is about £3,000 less than Gray. But then she gets less than many permanent secretaries, not to mention the consultants and lawyers Whitehall is crawling with these days. Besides, as we are tired of hearing, Starmer gets dazzling benefits in kind.
A second feature of the saga is its mess. Just 12 weeks into the rosy dawn of a new Labour era, Downing Street is enmeshed in a spat more typical of a regime on its last legs. Starmer has spent his time in office telling Britons they face a shambles, requiring a clampdown on public spending. The new army of special advisers – approximately 70-strong – is duly being paid a relative pittance, but one that has been fixed by a boss who decided to take a thumping pay rise. To put it mildly, this suggests poor political judgment. As one insider joked, Gray is the only pensioner likely to do better under Labour.
Fixing the machinery of Downing Street is the first crucial job of a new prime minister. Starmer has hit the ground stumbling. It is customary for those closest to the leader’s ear to be a circle of trusted friends ready to act as his alter ego. This was true back in the days of Thatcher and certainly of Tony Blair. When Blair came to power, his senior aide Jonathan Powell said to expect “a change from a feudal system of barons to a more Napoleonic system”. What he meant was a downgrading of the traditional civil service hierarchy, one of permanent secretaries with the cabinet secretary at their head. Instead, government was conducted more informally, from “the sofa”, as Kenneth Clarke dismissively described it.
This had benefits. Under Thatcher, the civil service acted initially as a brake on change, but she eventually gathered loyalists round her and bent the system to her will. Although she still listened to advice, as when in 1988 she did a U-turn on NHS privatisation. Under Blair, media management from the sofa overwhelmed policy. Foreign Office advice on Iraq was suppressed, and Blair made his greatest mistake with the invasion of that country. Since then, the balance in Downing Street between politicians and officials has become ever more informal and sometimes fractious. It reached its nadir under Boris Johnson and his maverick aide Dominic Cummings.
A measure of the disruption was that internal pressure succeeded in evicting Cummings, but when dissent occurred under Liz Truss, it was politics that evicted the head of the Treasury, Tom Scholar. In the case of Gray, it seems that an early victim of her boisterous style will be the cabinet secretary, Simon Case. She is already reported as controlling access to security briefings, appointing close allies as civil servants and pushing her pet building projects. This may be fine if you can keep it secret, but not if those round you keep leaking.
Gray was a civil servant who became a political adviser. They are different professions. Civil servants have spent their careers working together, with Downing Street and the Cabinet Office at the peak. They are supposedly discreet suppliers of truth to power. Political advisers are rarely used to big organisations. They are mostly the beneficiaries of party patronage, thinktanks and the murky world of lobbying. Some fit in; others do not.
The most recent grit in this machine has come from the growth of the No 10 Policy Unit, staffed by special advisers. Its proclaimed purpose is to keep Whitehall to the manifesto straight and narrow. But it inevitably cuts across similar units in departments, also staffed by advisers. It was war between the two top units – and Cummings’ reported desire to have Treasury advisers dismissed – that forced Johnson’s chancellor Sajid Javid to resign. So critical is this relationship in the realm of economic policy, that Starmer’s No 10 unit has apparently been downgraded. It will reportedly be just “a point of contact” on economic policy, “more like the nervous system than the brain”. We await the outcome with interest.
It is easy to adapt Tolstoy and say that every unhappy Downing Street is unhappy in its own way. But unhappiness starts at the top. Starmer must now support Gray to the hilt. She must at least have her own colleagues loyal to her – and to her confidences. At the same time, prime ministers have clearly strayed too far in the direction of Blair’s Napoleon. Second opinions must get through to a leader making decisions, even if the civil service must ultimately obey and deliver. Dissent should not take the current form of media leaks and disloyal gossip.
There has to be virtue in a well-established architecture of public administration. So much of this has now broken down. That is why there must be a tilt back to the tradition of a formalised and articulate civil service, with the cabinet secretary at its apex. The satire Yes Minister portrayed civil servants as subjecting the ambition of ministers to pragmatic reality. It had its virtues, and the civil servants did not always win. It is worth a repeat.
Politics
Biden Fed Jay Powell meeting Oval Office
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell (left) meets with President Joe Biden in the Oval Office on May 31, 2022.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
President Joe Biden on Thursday said he had “never once spoken” to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell while he was president.
But the pair, joined by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, met in the Oval Office on May 31, 2022 to discuss inflation, photos and videos from the meeting show.
The president made the inaccurate claim during remarks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., the day after the Fed announced a decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Touting his own respect for the independence of the central bank, Biden said “By the way, I’ve never once spoken to the chairman of the Fed since I became president.”
Asked about the apparently inaccurate recollection by a reporter at Thursday’s White House press briefing, Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jared Bernstein said Biden had been referring only to discussions about interest rates.
“The president was saying that he has not spoken to Chair Powell about interest rates,” said Bernstein. “He did not pressure Powell and has never done so.”
But the error undercut Biden’s critique of Republican former President Donald Trump, who has threatened to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve if he is elected to a second term.
“Unlike my predecessor, I respect the Federal Reserve’s independence as they pursue its mandate to bring inflation down. That independence has served the country well,” Biden said Thursday.
“It would also do enormous damage to our economy that independence was ever lost.”
Even in his 2022 Oval Office meeting with Powell, Biden stressed the importance of the Fed’s independence in addressing inflation.
“My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed. Respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden said at the time. “My job as president is not to not only nominate highly qualified individuals for that institution, but to give them the space they need to do their job.”
Trump, the Republican nominee for president, said in August that presidents should “have at least [a] say” about the Fed’s decisions on interest rates.
“Yeah, I feel that strongly,” Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago press conference on Aug. 8.
“I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.”
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that Trump advisors were putting together a plan that would inject Trump into the Fed’s interest rate decision-making process, if the Republican returns to the White House in January.
Politics
With a lust for freebies and hobbled by infighting, Labour look like the Tories 2.0 | John Crace
During the last election campaign it was hard to escape the impression that, whatever his other faults, Rishi Sunak just wasn’t very good at politics. The charge sheet included getting drenched announcing the election and leaving D-day veterans on the beaches. And insisting that black was white: that he was stopping the boats, that the economy was in good shape, that the Tories were on course for victory.
Just a couple of months later, it very much feels like Keir Starmer and Labour are saying: “Hold my beer.” Keen to prove that they, too, are amateurs at the political PR game. It’s almost as if there is something about being in government that makes fools of everyone. Though few would have imagined that Labour could manage it quite so quickly. A period of grace would have been more fitting.
Take the freebies. And Keir has. The Arsenal tickets. The Taylor Swift tickets. The suits. The designer glasses. The clothes for his wife. Starmer’s big shtick was that he was going to do politics differently. The antidote to Tory corruption and scandal. A man who could be trusted. He was one of us. So why put himself in a position where you can so easily be criticised by the rightwing press?
If you want to set yourself up as a model of propriety then you can’t start making exceptions. Especially not so early on. A couple of years in and people may not notice so much. You have to be above reproach. Yes, it might be a loss not to go to the football. And you might resent having to buy a few more suits for yourself. But that all rather goes with the job. Being prime minister may be a career highlight for a politician but you have to take the downsides.
Perhaps Starmer has been too honest for his own good. Maybe he should have been more like Boris Johnson. Keir has made himself accountable by listing his freebies in detail. We know exactly where all the money went. With Boris we are largely in the dark. He took whopping gifts from all sorts of undesirables and we aren’t entirely sure of the details. Being prime minister was a licence for Boris to cash in. No one expected any different from him. He never pretended to be on the side of the angels.
Then there is the question of Sue Gray’s pay. You could say that someone should have suggested that Sue drop £4,000 in salary just for appearances. So she earned less than the prime minister. Maybe throw in a clothes allowance and an events expense account to make up the difference. No one will notice. Surely. I guess she is a tough negotiator. One of the reasons she was made chief of staff.
But all this is not really the point. The issue is why the Labour party is indulging in open feuds with itself by leaking the story in the first place. We were promised a government of service and yet it already appears to be totally dysfunctional. It’s as if Starmer has taken the Tories as his role model. How did it come to this that half of the No 10 top team hate the other half? And vice versa. Couldn’t someone have just got in a therapist? Or at the very least established a workplace culture where people talked to one another? Or – and here’s a thought – pay junior staff the proper rate?
Still, Keir isn’t entirely a slow learner. There’s a tradition that prime ministers do a round of regional radio stations on the Thursday before a party conference. But after the last two years, when Liz Truss and Sunak had an hour they would rather forget, Starmer decided to reset the format to pre-recorded outings where he hoped there would be less room for disaster. All the interviews would be released at 5pm when he hoped no one would be watching.
So it was left to the business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, to do the morning media round. An experience he would rather forget. Reynolds comes across as a decent man but too much more of this and he will find himself Labour’s answer to Mel Stride. The minister who gets to do the rubbish jobs that no one else will. In future, on days like this, I am sure he will learn to put his phone on mute and not take calls from the No 10 comms team. It’s early days, I suppose.
On Times Radio, Aasmah Mir cut to the chase. Why did Starmer accept so many freebies? Reynolds forgot to engage his brain. It was like this, he said. Politicians get invited to events all the time and it would be rude not to go. It was the way people tried to engage with decision makers. Sure thing. That’s why it was vital for Boris Johnson to accept a freebie to Evgeny Lebedev’s party in Italy. And a Taylor Swift concert is a prerequisite for stopping the winter fuel allowance.
It very much sounded as if he was talking about the perks of the job, said Mir. Oh no, replied Reynolds. Far from it. Perish the thought. Just that politicians worked extremely hard and deserved a little downtime. Especially if they didn’t have to pay for it. The thought occurred that if Starmer was desperate to see Arsenal he could have afforded the cost of a seat with the corporates. It was just strange that all these dazzling freebies were never offered to the rest of us.
Over on Sky, Kay Burley was outraged by the size of Sue Gray’s salary. One wonders what Burley’s wedge is. I’m not sure she would get out of bed for £170,000. She would consider that an insult. But I’m sure that’s not the point. Even so, Reynolds still couldn’t think straight. Why not just say that Dominic Cummings and other Downing Street heads of staff would have been on a similar sort of salary if you allowed for inflation. The same people outraged now were not outraged then. It could just be that £170,000 is the going rate for the job and that it is the prime minister who is underpaid. A thought.
So the nonsense will continue into the Labour party conference starting this weekend. And Labour really doen’t have anyone to blame but itself. Freebies and staff pay should have been headed off ages ago. And maybe it doesn’t matter if we have a government that is bad at politics if it gets the big calls right. After all, the chances are we’ll be talking about something else in a month’s time. Head down and onwards and sideways.
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