TLDR

• Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has turned positive over the past 30 days.
• More Bitcoin is now being held by investors for the long term rather than being sold.
• The change in supply comes from coins aging past six months and entering the long-term holder category.
• Despite the price dropping below $70,000, long-term holders have increased their supply by 308,000 BTC.
• Currently, 29% of long-term holder supply is in loss, which is still below past cycle bottom levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a shift in long-term holder supply over the past month. Data indicate that investors are holding onto their assets, with long-term supply rising in recent weeks. Despite recent price challenges, this trend shows a change in investor behavior.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure Despite Increased Long-Term Holdings

On April 6, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $70,000 mark but was unable to sustain this price level, dropping to around $68,000. Despite the downward price action, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has flipped positive over the past 30 days. This increase stems from coins transitioning from short-term to long-term holdings as they age past six months.

The rise in long-term holder supply marks a shift in the market, as more Bitcoin is now being retained in wallets. This trend reflects a decision by investors to hold rather than sell their coins. Data from analyst Darkfost confirms this, highlighting a jump from -674,000 BTC to a positive +308,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This shift indicates a growing number of investors holding onto their Bitcoin.

Data Suggests a Long-Term Holding Trend

The increase in Bitcoin’s long-term supply comes from coins that have not been moved for over six months. Darkfost clarified that this data does not necessarily reflect new buying, but rather coins that have simply aged into the long-term holder category. These coins have remained untouched for a significant period, reflecting a preference for holding rather than selling.

According to the analyst, this shift in behavior is notable, as it signals a growing inclination to retain Bitcoin even during periods of low spot demand. Historically, similar changes in long-term holder supply have preceded price increases, although Darkfost cautioned that it is too early to confirm a lasting trend. The current data suggests that more investors are making the choice to hold Bitcoin in anticipation of future gains.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss Still Below Past Cycle Levels

Although long-term holder supply is increasing, a significant portion of this supply remains in loss. At present, 29% of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is in the red. This figure is still well below previous market cycle bottoms, where losses reached 44% to 53%. This suggests that Bitcoin’s market has not yet reached its lowest point, despite the rise in long-term holder supply.

Market analysts, including Ardi, have noted that similar loss levels in previous years, 2015, 2018, and 2022, marked the bottom of market cycles.

While the current loss percentage remains lower, it continues to rise, signaling that Bitcoin may be heading towards new lows. This increase in long-term holders could potentially influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory, but investors remain cautious as the market adjusts.

The US politics news today midterm election Georgia Trump test is live: polls opened this morning in the deeply conservative Georgia-14 district that Marjorie Taylor Greene vacated, where Republican Clay Fuller faces Democrat Shawn Harris in a runoff that analysts say could be the clearest early signal yet of whether the Iran war is beginning to hurt Republicans’ electoral standing.

The US politics news today midterm election Georgia Trump dynamic arrived at its most visible test yet when polls opened this morning in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, a stretch of northwest Georgia that runs across 10 counties from suburban Atlanta to Tennessee. Bloomberg reported the race as a direct test of Trump’s standing with his own base amid the Iran war, with Harris, a retired Army brigadier general, running against Trump-endorsed district attorney Clay Fuller in the runoff to replace MTG.

The district is the most Republican-leaning congressional seat in Georgia, according to the Cook Political Report. Trump carried it by 37 points in 2024. Harris won the March 10 all-party primary with 37% against 17 candidates — 12 of whom were Republicans — a result that rattled enough people in Washington that Trump posted a personal appeal Monday night: “I am asking all Republicans, America First Patriots, and MAGA Warriors, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for a fantastic Candidate, Clay Fuller.”

Harris has positioned gas prices as his closing argument. “When they go to the polls, they will have to stop at the pump, and that’ll be the last thing they think about before they go and vote,” he told Fox News. “And they’re going to say, ‘You know what, Shawn Harris is the only one that’s talking about bringing down costs.’” National gas prices now average $4.14 per gallon, up from $2.98 before the war began.

Harris has also used his military background to credibly challenge the war. “We will win this war militarily. However, if we don’t watch it and be clear with the American people, based on these gas prices and diesel prices, we could actually lose this war politically,” he said.

Fuller’s counter: “The voters in Georgia-14 support the president in this endeavor.” He has described himself as a “MAGA warrior” and called voters ready to support the district’s continued representation under Trump’s agenda.

What the Margin Will Tell November’s Candidates

Even a Harris loss by a small margin would carry significant information for both parties. As one analyst noted, the key question is “the margin by which he loses, and whether or not it’s narrower compared to 2024” — and whether Harris can demonstrate that Democratic infrastructure built during the special election translates into broader midterm momentum in Georgia.

The stakes for crypto policy are real as well. As crypto.news reported, the Fairshake crypto super PAC has $116 million set aside for the 2026 midterms, targeting congressional races where candidates’ positions on digital asset legislation will shape November’s outcomes. A House that shifts Democratic in November would significantly change the calculus for the CLARITY Act. As crypto.news noted, Democrats may have little incentive to accelerate crypto legislation if they believe they can regain House control — and tonight’s result in Georgia-14 will be the first data point on whether that scenario is becoming more credible.

“What I’m looking at is the improvement compared to 2024,” one Georgia political analyst told MS NOW. “That improvement suggests enthusiasm among Democrats that could be a harbinger going into the November midterm elections.”

The bitcoin price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today tells a familiar story: BTC briefly reclaimed $70,000 on Monday ceasefire hopes before retreating to the $68,000 range on Tuesday as Iran rejected the deal and Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline drew closer, with ETH, SOL, and XRP all posting losses of 2% to 4%.

The bitcoin (BTC) price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today is being driven entirely by geopolitics. Bitcoin pulled back to around $68,228 on Tuesday morning after Monday’s brief touch of $70,200, as Iran formally rejected the US-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump confirmed his 8 PM ET strike deadline remained in force. The crypto market cap fell roughly 2% to $2.42 trillion as traders positioned defensively heading into the evening.

Ethereum dropped 2.9% to $2,090. Solana fell 3.8% to $79.44. XRP slid 3.3% to $1.31. The pattern is the same one that has played out across six weeks of this conflict: a de-escalation headline sparks a rally, Iran rejects the terms, and the gains get erased within hours.

The one data point bucking the bearish narrative is spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Monday’s $471 million in inflows marked the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February, according to Bloomberg. Binance Research found this month that Bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, turned strongly negative after the launch of spot ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are treating dips as accumulation opportunities regardless of short-term price moves.

As crypto.news reported, a confirmed agreement tonight could open the door to a move toward $75,000, as easing tensions would support risk appetite across financial markets. Failure to reach a deal points in the other direction, with $66,500 identified as the key support zone and, below that, a Glassnode-flagged negative gamma setup that leaves BTC exposed to a faster move toward $60,000.

The Two Scenarios Traders Are Pricing

“This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning getting caught offsides,” said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. “Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market. Once ceasefire headlines hit, that positioning had to unwind.”

The six-week trading range of $65,000 to $73,000 that has defined Bitcoin during the Iran war remains intact. Breaking above it requires either a genuine ceasefire or a significant improvement in the macro backdrop — neither of which looks imminent at press time.

What the Fed Overlay Adds

Oil above $111 per barrel means inflation expectations remain elevated, which reduces the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. The market currently prices in little near-term Fed movement. Bitcoin, which performs best in easing liquidity environments, is caught between institutional accumulation demand and a macro backdrop that keeps capital defensive. That tension is precisely why BTC has held its war range rather than breaking either way.

As crypto.news noted, the Strait of Hormuz situation is the single most important variable. Tonight’s 8 PM ET deadline is the clearest binary event Bitcoin has faced in the six weeks since the war began.

Iran’s hashrate has plummeted over the past quarter amid an ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, though the war itself has not dragged down global hashrate, according to a new report from Hashrate Index.

Iran has lost roughly 7 exahashes per second (EH/s) quarter-over-quarter, said Ian Philpot, marketing director at Luxor Technology, in a report published Monday. The country’s hashrate now sits at about 2 EH/s according to the Hashrate Index heatmap.

Philpot noted that while the regional conflict clearly impacted Iran, it could have triggered a ripple effect for neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman, yet so far, neither has been affected.  

“The impact was contained to Iran; neighboring UAE and Oman remained stable. The global hashrate at ~1,000 EH/s persists because no single region has enough capacity to threaten network continuity. Regional disruptions redistribute hashrate rather than destroy it,” he said.

The Middle East conflict escalated in February after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, which has led to retaliatory strikes from both sides. A deal for a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Iran is estimated to have 427,000 active Bitcoin (BTC) mining rigs.

Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. They validate and record all Bitcoin transactions into new blocks. The more miners participate, the higher the hashrate, which helps secure the network.

Global hashrate down due to Bitcoin price slump

The 30-day simple moving average network global hashrate declined from 1,066 EH/s in Q1 to around 1,004 EH/s in Q2, a 5.8% quarter-over-quarter decline that Philpot attributed to a slump in Bitcoin prices. 

Miners earn Bitcoin for each block they solve, but with prices down, those rewards do not always cover the cost of running their rigs.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, set in October, pushing hash prices to record lows. Philpot said mining profitability, not energy costs or regulatory policy, is the primary driver of today’s geographic shifts in hashrate.

“At these levels, older-generation equipment, 25+ J/TH efficiency, operates at negative gross margins, forcing shutdown. We estimate 252 EH/s of marginal capacity sits offline—most legacy hardware already retired,” he added.

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“This pattern is cyclical. Mining profitability drives machine deployment and retirement more than energy costs or regulatory frameworks. Geographic shifts observed in Q1 and Q2 reflect operators testing which regions can sustain operations once the down-cycle ends and hashprice normalizes.”

Top three countries control 65.6% of the global hashrate

The US holds the largest share of global hashrate at over 37%, followed by Russia at around 17% and China at 12%, according to the Hashrate Index heatmap.

Philpot said the hashrate among the largest players is roughly flat, however the composition is changing, with legacy equipment forced offline and modern hardware deployed selectively to regions where it can remain profitable long term.

“Growth is characterized by deployment of modern hardware alongside retirement of legacy equipment. Canada shows similar dynamics: slight quarter-over-quarter pullback but positive year-over-year growth, reflecting optimization rather than exodus,” he added.

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