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Gold Volatility Beats Bitcoin’s Risk Profile

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Bitcoin Volatility Index

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and brace yourself: markets are moving in ways few expected. One asset is swinging wildly, defying norms, while the other struggles to catch up. Traders and investors are watching closely as volatility reshapes familiar narratives, signaling that nothing is quite as it seems.

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Crypto News of the Day: Gold’s Volatility Surges Past Bitcoin Amid Historic Market Swings

Gold has overtaken Bitcoin amid market turbulence. Its recent price swings surpass even Bitcoin’s, highlighting a rare inversion in risk dynamics that few investors expected.

Data shows the 30-day volatility in gold surged to a new peak of 48.68, and stood at 41.04 as of this writing. Notably, this level was not tested since the 2008 financial crisis.

In comparison, Bitcoin’s volatility currently hovers around 39%, despite its reputation as a highly speculative asset.

Bitcoin Volatility Index
Bitcoin Volatility Index. Source: newhedge

The surge in gold volatility follows its sharpest plunge in more than a decade, including a single-session drop of nearly 10% from a peak of $5,600 to roughly $4,400 per ounce in Asian trading.

Since Bitcoin’s creation 17 years ago, gold has been more volatile only twice. The most recent was in May 2019 during a flare-up in trade tensions sparked by tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

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The wild swings in gold come amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty. As indicated in a recent US Crypto News publication, renewed fears of geopolitical instability, currency debasement, and questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence drove investors to pile into precious metals.

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Gold Rebounds $6 Trillion in Two Days, Leaving Bitcoin Behind

The recovery in gold has been equally dramatic, with XAU prices surging back above $5,000/oz, up 17% in just 48 hours.

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During the same period, gold added $4.74 trillion to its market capitalization, while silver gained $1 trillion. This brings the total growth in the precious metals market cap to nearly $6 trillion in two days.

“That’s over 4× Bitcoin’s market cap,” stated analyst Crypto Rover.

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The rebound reflects strong accumulation by institutional and high-net-worth investors, with consistent buying on every dip speaking volumes about who’s accumulating the precious metal, regardless of the noise.

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“Volatility shouldn’t surprise anyone here—it’s rare for an asset to absorb a hit like last week’s and then move straight back up without a few bumps. Gold remains severely under-owned, and this move has real legs as part of a much larger cycle,” said Otavio in a post.

Even amid volatility, gold has maintained its status as a safe-haven asset, up roughly 66% year-on-year, while Bitcoin remains down more than 20% over the same period.

The contrast mirrors how, in times of macroeconomic stress, traditional precious metals continue to command a premium in investor portfolios, outpacing even high-profile digital assets.

As geopolitical and monetary pressures persist, gold’s newfound volatility is likely to remain in focus, offering both risk and opportunity for traders seeking refuge from broader market swings.

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Chart of the Day

Gold Volatility Index. Source: TradingView

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company Close As of February 3 Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR) $133.26 $132.55 (-0.53%)
Coinbase (COIN) $179.66 $178.89 (-0.43%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) $21.98 $22.11 (+0.59%)
MARA Holdings (MARA) $9.05 $8.99 (-0.66%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT) $15.34 $15.32 (-0.13%)
Core Scientific (CORZ) $17.74 $17.65 (-0.51%)
Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

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Origins Network raises $8M to build modular AI chain with verifiable compute

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Crypto VC Funding Reaches $244M as Mesh Leads

Summary

  • Origins Network has raised $8 million in strategic funding to build a modular blockchain tailored for AI agents with verifiable computation.
  • The round includes Animoca Brands and other Web3 investors, with the project pitching a “Proof of Computation” design that separates heavy AI workloads from onchain verification.
  • Origins is already working with AWS, Tencent Cloud, and Alibaba Cloud, positioning itself at the intersection of crypto infrastructure and the fast‑growing agentic AI stack.

Origins Network has secured $8 million in strategic financing to build a modular blockchain purpose‑built for AI agents, betting that verifiable compute will be the missing trust layer for the next wave of autonomous systems. The round, announced on March 23, 2026, features Animoca Brands alongside TBV, Candaq, Castrum Istanbul and Coinvestor Ventures, with the team describing the cap table as a blend of Web3, AI and cloud‑native backers.

In a statement, Origins said it wants to make AI “auditable, not mystical,” arguing that users should be able to check how an AI agent arrived at a result rather than accepting black‑box outputs. To do that, the network introduces Proof of Computation (PoC), a design where heavy AI inference runs offchain on GPU‑rich infrastructure, while succinct proofs of that work are verified and settled onchain. “We’re not trying to turn a blockchain into a data center,” the team said. “We’re turning blockchains into verifiers of AI behavior.”

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Under the PoC model, AI agents submit their workloads to an offchain execution layer — which can tap infrastructure from partners like AWS, Tencent Cloud, and Alibaba Cloud — and then post cryptographic evidence of the computation back to Origins’ chain. That lets applications prove that a model actually ran a given prompt or data pipeline, without forcing every full node to re‑execute the underlying workload. The project frames this as a middle path between fully centralized AI APIs and heavyweight “AI on L1” experiments that risk clogging general‑purpose chains.

The broader context is a funding wave into modular AI blockchains. In 2024, 0G Labs raised $35 million at pre‑seed to build a modular AI data availability layer, arguing that “core infrastructure needs to be built” before today’s centralized AI stacks can plug into Web3. More recently, networks like Hemi have raised eight‑figure rounds to connect Bitcoin and Ethereum as modular execution and settlement layers, a sign that investors are comfortable backing deep, technical infrastructure plays rather than just consumer apps. Origins is effectively aiming to do the same at the AI layer, but with a tight focus on verifiable agentic workloads.

Lead backer Animoca Brands has spent years assembling one of the broadest Web3 portfolios, with over 600 investments spanning gaming, NFTs, and infrastructure. Its chairman, Yat Siu, has often argued that Web3’s real unlock is “digital property rights at internet scale,” and Origins fits neatly into that thesis by trying to make AI‑generated outputs ownable and auditable rather than ephemeral. In a recent interview, Siu described Animoca as “a gateway to the utility tokens of Web3” — as opposed to pure memecoins — and said the firm is now backing infrastructure that brings institutional‑grade transparency and accountability into crypto.

For crypto markets, the bet is simple but ambitious: if AI agents are going to manage portfolios, underwrite loans, or trade on decentralized exchanges, they’ll need a chain where their decisions can be inspected and, if necessary, challenged. Origins Network wants to be that chain.

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Apple (AAPL) Stock Rises as Maps App Prepares to Launch Search Advertising

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Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Key Highlights

  • Apple is set to unveil advertising capabilities within its Maps application, with a formal reveal potentially happening before month’s end
  • The advertising model mirrors Google Maps’ approach, enabling companies to purchase priority placement for specific search queries
  • The feature is slated to debut in Maps during summer months, accessible on iPhone, additional Apple hardware, and web platforms
  • Apple’s services division currently generates north of $100 billion annually, representing over 25% of the company’s overall revenue
  • The European Commission determined Apple Maps doesn’t qualify for stringent Digital Markets Act regulations given its limited European market share

Apple is preparing to integrate advertising into its Maps platform, based on a Monday report from Bloomberg. The official announcement may arrive within the next few weeks.

The advertising framework will function similarly to Google Maps’ existing system. Companies will compete through bidding on relevant keywords — for instance, a dining establishment might purchase the term “sushi” — with the winning bidder’s location featured prominently when users conduct related searches.

The advertising functionality is anticipated to launch within Maps by summer’s end. Users will encounter these sponsored listings across iPhone devices, other Apple products, and web-based versions of the service.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)

This development represents a predictable evolution for the company. Apple has been systematically expanding its advertising operations. In late 2024, the tech giant introduced additional advertising positions within App Store search functionality and announced intentions to broaden advertising opportunities through 2026. Maps has reportedly been considered as the next expansion target in internal discussions.

Apple’s services category — encompassing the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud storage, and Apple TV+ — now produces over $100 billion in yearly revenue. This represents more than one-quarter of the company’s total income, a significant increase from less than 10% ten years prior.

European Regulatory Clearance

Apple received favorable regulatory news recently. The European Commission opted against applying stringent Digital Markets Act requirements to Apple Maps, acknowledging the application’s comparatively modest footprint in European markets versus rival services.

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This determination removes a possible obstacle for launching an advertising product in Maps without encountering DMA-related complications in one of Apple’s most important geographic regions.

Upcoming Announcement Opportunities

Apple’s yearly Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is scheduled for June 8–12. The opening keynote presentation on June 8 at 1 p.m. EST typically showcases software innovations and product launches. This event would provide an ideal platform to officially announce the Maps advertising initiative.

AAPL shares advanced approximately 1.5% during Monday’s trading session. Analysts currently maintain an average price target of $304.66 for the stock, suggesting potential upside of roughly 21% from present trading levels.

Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL, derived from 14 Buy recommendations, nine Hold ratings, and one Sell rating issued during the previous three months.

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Ethereum Price Prediction: Valhalla Awaits as Bitmine Staked More?

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Cardano (ADA) is currently engaged in a high-stakes price standoff as we await a decisive breakout in a bullish prediction.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has staked over $200 million worth of ETH in a massive vote of confidence for the protocol, even as Ethereum price prediction faces a critical test at the $2,000 support level.

Just days ago, Bitmine executed a transaction locking 94,670 ETH worth approximately $204 million, bringing their total staked holdings to an impressive 3,142,291 ETH.

According to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence, this move represents one of the largest recent staking inflows from a publicly listed firm. The market data is telling: despite four consecutive days of losses earlier in the week, Ethereum is stabilizing.

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Trading at above $2,100 at press time, the asset posted a healthy gain of 2.4%. This institutional accumulation during a period of fear suggests smart money is positioning for a supply shock.

Are we witnessing a bottom formation, or is the bearish pressure too heavy?

Ethereum Price Prediction: Can Ethereum Defense Hold $2,000 Support?

Ethereum’s technical structure currently hinges on the $2,000 psychological barrier, a level that has acted as a pivot point throughout Q1 2026. While year-to-date performance shows a 31.1% decline, the asset has maintained an 7.7% gain over the last 30 days, indicating long-term resilience.

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Cardano (ADA) is currently engaged in a high-stakes price standoff as we await a decisive breakout in a bullish prediction.
ETH USD, TradingView

Technical indicators paint a conflicted picture. On short timeframes, 24 of 28 indicators signal bearish conditions, yet long-dated moving averages (MA100, MA200) continue to register buy signals. The RSI sits near 50, revealing a market in equilibrium, neither overbought nor oversold.

  • Bull Case: If ETH reclaims the $2,378 resistance (R1 pivot), it opens the path toward the $2,785 annual average projected by CoinCodex.
  • Bear Case: A breakdown below the immediate support of $1,822.28 could trigger a cascading sell-off toward the $1,647 downside resistance.

Despite the short-term noise, macro forecasts remain aggressively bullish. Standard Chartered has released a forecast predicting that ETH could hit $7,500 by year-end 2026. However, for traders seeking immediate alpha, Ethereum’s current low-volatility grind may offer limited short-term upside compared to emerging infrastructure plays.

Discover: The Best New Crypto

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Infrastructure Rotation as ETH Stalls

While Ethereum battles for stability at established valuations, capital is beginning to rotate into high-performance Layer 2 solutions that promise aggressive growth multiples. Investors are increasingly looking toward the Bitcoin ecosystem for the next wave of programmable liquidity.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is capitalizing on this shift by launching the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 integrated with the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). This architecture solves Bitcoin’s critical latency issues, delivering sub-second finality while leveraging Bitcoin’s native security layer. The market response has been immediate and high-volume.

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The project has already raised more than $32 million in its ongoing presale. Currently priced at $0.0136, the token offers an arguably low entry point relative to established L2s with a 66% APY staking rewards.

The protocol distinguishes itself with a Decentralized Canonical Bridge, allowing seamless BTC transfers into a high-speed smart contract environment faster than Solana itself.

For traders fatigued by Ethereum’s slow chop around $2,150, Bitcoin Hyper presents a “high beta” infrastructure play (early stage, higher risk, higher potential reward).

Check out the Bitcoin Hyper Presale

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The post Ethereum Price Prediction: Valhalla Awaits as Bitmine Staked More? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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TRUMP Crypto Still The Play? Can Memecoins Still Run During Iran War?

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The Official TRUMP crypto price is currently trading at $3.26, a 2.5% gain today, as the asset struggles to find a floor.

The Official TRUMP crypto price is currently trading at $3.26, a 2.5% gain today, as the asset struggles to find a floor. This price action follows a dramatic reversal where the token surrendered nearly the entirety of a 49.65% rally that peaked on March 13, leaving bulls trapped at higher levels.

The token now sits precariously 20% above its all-time low of $2.73. On-chain data is painting a specifically bearish picture; exchange balance metrics from Glassnode indicate that sellers remain firmly in control of the order book. During the mid-March volatility, balances on exchanges surged from 15 million to approximately 41 million, suggesting a rush to liquidate that has yet to fully abate.

While political headlines often drive sentiment in this sector, the technical reality points to exhausted demand. The market appears to be pricing in further downside risk unless a significant catalyst emerges to absorb the excess supply, especially after Iran denies any talk with the U.S.

Can TRUMP Crypto Hold the $2.60 Floor Amidst Sell Pressure?

The immediate technical structure for TRUMP is defined by a massive supply overhang. The spike of roughly 26 million tokens deposited to exchanges near the $4.00 mark represents approximately $104 million in sell-side positioning at the peak. While balances have since stabilized near 18.5 million, this level remains elevated compared to March lows.

Is the bottom in? The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) offers a conflicting narrative. The indicator fell to -0.26 in early March before recovering to near zero by March 13, coinciding with the rally. However, the subsequent price collapse suggests that this recovery was a “dead cat bounce” rather than a genuine accumulation.

The Official TRUMP crypto price is currently trading at $3.26, a 2.5% gain today, as the asset struggles to find a floor.
TRUMP USD, GeckoTerminal

Conversely, a reclamation of the $3.50 level on high volume would be required to invalidate the current bearish thesis. Until then, the stabilized but elevated exchange balances act as a latent threat, ready to cap any relief rallies.

Discover: The Best New Crypto

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Infrastructure Utility as PolitiFi Tokens Stumble

While political finance (PolitiFi) tokens like TRUMP struggle with sell-the-news price action, smart money appears to be rotating into infrastructure plays that offer utility beyond speculation. The current capital flight from volatile meme-based assets is finding a home in Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a project attempting to solve Bitcoin’s scalability trilemma.

Bitcoin Hyper distinguishes itself as the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 to integrate the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). This architecture aims to deliver settlement speeds faster than Solana itself while anchoring security to the Bitcoin network.

The market response has been quantitatively significant; the project has raised more than $32 million in its presale phase, defying broader market consolidation. Currently priced at $0.013, $HYPER offers a high 36% APY staking program that incentivizes long-term holding, a stark contrast to the rapid turnover seen in political tokens.

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While presales carry inherent vesting risks, the $32 million raise suggests strong institutional interest in bringing programmable smart contracts to the Bitcoin ecosystem. For traders fatigued by TRUMP’s volatility, this represents a fundamental hedge.

Research Bitcoin Hyper Presale Here

The post TRUMP Crypto Still The Play? Can Memecoins Still Run During Iran War? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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NovaBay Rebrands as ‘Stablecoin Development Corporation’ With Nearly 9% of SKY Supply

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SKY Chart

The company, which generated less than $10 million in revenue last year selling eyecare products, raised $134 million to bet entirely on the Sky protocol’s governance token.

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is changing its name to Stablecoin Development Corporation and its NYSE American ticker to SDEV, effective April 3, the company announced Monday. The rebrand completes a pivot from wound care to crypto that began with a $134 million private placement in January.

As of March 16, the company held approximately 2.06 billion SKY tokens — roughly 8.78% of the total supply of the Sky protocol’s governance token. SKY is currently trading at around $0.07, according to Coingecko, implying the position is worth roughly $144 million. The token is up 10% over the past month.

SKY Chart
SKY Chart

The Deal

The January private placement drew capital from R01 Fund LP, Framework Ventures, Tether Investments, and Sky Frontier Foundation. As part of the transaction, the company received approximately 943.6 million SKY tokens valued at around $58 million, along with $25 million in cash and $51 million in stablecoins. Since closing, it has spent an additional $70.7 million acquiring roughly 1.09 billion SKY on the open market at an average price of about $0.065.

The company has staked the majority of its holdings and reported cumulative staking rewards of approximately 26.6 million SKY.

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The strategy mirrors Michael Saylor’s playbook of using a public equity vehicle to offer leveraged exposure to a single crypto asset. CEO Michael Kazley framed the approach around stablecoins broadly, calling them “the most compelling structural opportunity in digital finance.”

The bet comes at a pivotal moment for the Sky ecosystem.

Sky’s TVL has surged 38% this month to $7.52 billion, making it the fourth-largest DeFi protocol. The growth has been fueled by Sky’s fixed 3.75% savings rate exceeding yields on major lending platforms like Aave and Morpho in a risk-off environment.

“Honestly, it’s the classic story of how Sky, just like Maker used to, always does better in bear markets because it’s just focused on a solid product that can be trusted to be stable and deliver good returns,” Sky founder Rune Christensen told The Defiant.

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NovaBay describes itself as an “on-chain holding company” focused on “long-duration participation in protocol-aligned digital asset ecosystems.”

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Bitcoin Pullback Puts Focus on Infrastructure Plays as Bitcoin Hyper Presale Tops $32M

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🚀

The weekend Bitcoin price drop has pushed some traders toward Bitcoin ecosystem infrastructure rather than away from the market altogether. After geopolitical tensions in the Middle East knocked BTC from above $70,000 to as low as $67,360, attention has turned to projects positioning for longer-term Bitcoin utility, including Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), which has now raised over $32 million in its presale.

The move came after President Trump issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its energy infrastructure. The waterway, which typically carries about 20% of global oil supply, has been largely closed to commercial shipping since late February.

Oil reacted sharply. WTI crude climbed to nearly $101 per barrel, Brent moved above $113, and the United States Oil Fund jumped past $123 in pre-market trading, adding to inflation concerns across global markets.

Bitcoin sold off as the headlines hit, with long liquidations accelerating the decline before BTC recovered to around $68,000. Even so, some investors are using the pullback to rotate into Bitcoin bets focused on infrastructure, particularly projects promising broader on-chain utility during the next market cycle.

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The latest escalation followed renewed friction around key shipping routes. After weeks of disruption that drove oil benchmarks above $100, President Trump posted on Truth Social that if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday evening, the US would target the country’s power plants, “starting with the biggest one first.”

Iran responded with threats against energy infrastructure across the Gulf, deepening the standoff and prompting a broader risk-off reaction.

Bitcoin felt that pressure almost immediately. Having held above $70,000, BTC fell roughly 3% on Saturday and triggered more than $240 million in liquidations within hours, sending the price to levels not seen since early March.

Still, market participants watching the longer cycle are treating the move as a macro-driven shakeout rather than a change in Bitcoin’s structural trajectory. A widely shared X post from Documenting Saylor pointed to historical cycle behavior showing Bitcoin advancing from $19,000 to $126,000 in prior runs.

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That same view has supported projections for a potential $200,000 target as the current bull market develops. In that context, short-term volatility has strengthened interest in infrastructure that could expand what Bitcoin holders can do with their assets beyond simple holding.

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Bitcoin Hyper pitches next-cycle utility with SVM-based Layer 2 roadmap


That is where Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) has been gaining traction. The project is being positioned as a Bitcoin Layer 2 designed to improve transaction speed, lower costs, and widen the range of applications available to BTC users.

According to the project, Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) uses the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) to support near-instant transactions and low fees while maintaining security links to Bitcoin’s base layer. Once mainnet is live, users are expected to be able to bridge BTC to the network in a trustless manner and use it across decentralized apps, payments, and staking systems that are difficult to build directly on Bitcoin mainnet.

For investors looking at credibility signals, fundraising has been one of the clearest markers so far. The presale has raised more than $32 million, suggesting sustained demand for Bitcoin-focused infrastructure exposure rather than purely directional BTC trades.

The HYPER token sits at the center of that model. It has a total supply of 21 billion and is intended to be used for fees, governance, and access to network features. The project also says its distribution structure is designed to avoid insider favoritism.

HYPER is currently priced at $0.0136774 in presale. Buyers can also stake tokens at 36% APY while waiting for full mainnet deployment. With the token price scheduled to rise again in a few hours under the project’s preset pricing structure, the sale has continued to draw attention from buyers seeking exposure to Bitcoin infrastructure ahead of the next phase of the market.

Accessing the HYPER sale


Investors looking to join can go to the official Bitcoin Hyper website, connect a wallet, and buy HYPER using SOL, ETH, BNB, USDC, or USDT. Bank card purchases are also supported.

Some participants have been using Best Wallet’s app for mobile purchases. The app is available on the Apple App Store and Google Play, and also supports the project’s “Buy and Stake” option.

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At the current presale price of $0.0136774 and with staking rewards at 36% APY, the project is positioning itself as an accessible way to build exposure to Bitcoin Hyper while the broader market remains volatile.

For updates, follow Bitcoin Hyper on X and join the project’s Telegram group.

Visit Bitcoin Hyper.

The post Bitcoin Pullback Puts Focus on Infrastructure Plays as Bitcoin Hyper Presale Tops $32M appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Volume in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post

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Volume in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump's market-turning post

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

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At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

The timing of the earlier volume spikes across both equities and crude caught the attention of traders, particularly given the absence of an obvious catalyst at the moment they occurred.

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Early-morning futures markets are typically less liquid, which can make short bursts of buying and selling more noticeable than during regular trading hours. Still, the trades raised some eyebrows because whoever purchased a large amount of stock futures and sold or shorted crude futures at that moment made a lot of money just minutes later.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CME Group didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Algorithmic and macro-driven strategies can also generate rapid flows across asset classes without a single identifiable catalyst in early trading.

— With assistance from CNBC’s Fred Imbert.

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Senate Bill Targets Sports-Betting Ban on Crypto Prediction Markets

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Crypto Breaking News

A bipartisan effort in Washington is gearing up to curb the use of CFTC-regulated prediction markets for sports betting and casino-style contracts, intensifying a broader regulatory push around these platforms. The move comes as lawmakers weigh how to balance potential innovation with consumer protection and state gaming prerogatives.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are expected to unveil a measure on Monday that would bar listing sports bets and other casino-style contracts on prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The authors of the bill argue that such activities should be governed at the state level rather than under federal oversight. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” Curtis told the WSJ.

In a related development, Schiff has already introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual death. The bill text was released on March 10, and represents a more targeted expansion of the same policy impulse that informs the forthcoming bipartisan measure.

For readers tracking the broader regulatory arc, the evolving stance toward prediction markets intersects with renewed insider-trading concerns amid geopolitical volatility and a growing appetite in Congress to constrain markets tied to volatile events.

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Key takeaways

  • Lawmakers are preparing a bipartisan bill to bar CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing sports betting and casino-style contracts, signaling a potential tightening of federal oversight.
  • Senator John Curtis frames the move as protecting state sovereignty over gambling policy, while Senator Schiff’s DEATH BETS Act targets contracts linked to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual death.
  • Sports-related contracts dominate activity on prediction-market platforms, with Dune data showing nearly half of Polymarket’s weekly notional volume and a substantial majority for Kalshi stemming from sports bets.
  • CFTC activity is ramping up, including a staff advisory classifying event contracts as a financial asset class and an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that could reshape how the CEA applies to these markets.
  • Judicial and regulatory developments across Ohio and Nevada illustrate ongoing friction between federal authority and state gambling laws, creating a rapidly shifting risk landscape for operators and users.

Bipartisan bid targets prediction markets

The forthcoming bill, described by sources as a bipartisan initiative, would bar listing sports betting and “casino-style” contracts on prediction markets that fall under CFTC regulation. If enacted, the proposal would add a significant federal constraint at a moment when prediction-market platforms are expanding offerings beyond traditional politics and current events into entertainment and sports-oriented contracts. The aim, as outlined by Curtis, is to keep certain activities within state purview while reducing exposure to what lawmakers view as harmful or addictive products.

The DEATH BETS Act, introduced by Schiff, takes a similarly restrictive stance but with a focused scope on contracts tied to deadly human events. The combination of these measures underscores a broader shift in how policymakers are approaching the intersection of prediction markets, risk, and public policy. Schiff’s office released the bill text, and the proposal is expected to shape conversations around the future of these markets in the federal legislative agenda.

Regulatory push broadens beyond Congress

Beyond proposed legislation, the regulatory climate for prediction markets has intensified in recent weeks. The CFTC, which oversees designated contract markets (DCMs) like Polymarket and Kalshi, issued a staff advisory on March 12 that classifies event contracts as a “financial asset class.” In parallel, the agency released an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit input on how the Commodity Exchange Act should apply to prediction markets, signaling a potential overhaul of the regulatory framework governing these platforms.

These moves come amid a broader debate over federal versus state authority in the sector. While CFTC Chair Michael Seligman has argued that prediction markets fall under federal jurisdiction, lower courts have started to scrutinize that claim. An Ohio court ruling in early March found that Kalshi had not shown the CEA would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports-gambling laws or that its contracts fell under the CFTC’s exclusive domain. Separately, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering sports, election, and entertainment event contracts for 14 days, citing the likelihood of violating state gambling statutes.

The regulatory climate thus blends rulemaking, judicial testing of preemption, and legislative action, creating a complex backdrop for operators as they navigate product design, compliance, and potential market exits or pivots. Kalshi and Polymarket remain under CFTC oversight as DCMS, but the ongoing legal and policy struggle injects a notable degree of uncertainty for market participants.

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Sports markets drive trading volume and attention

Despite the policy spotlight, the economics of prediction markets continue to be driven by fast-moving event contracts—particularly in sports. Data from Dune Analytics highlights how sports bets dominate activity on major platforms. Polymarket’s weekly notional volume was heavily skewed toward sports contracts, accounting for about 47.7% of the week’s notional volume, while Kalshi’s sports-related contracts represented roughly 78.8% of its weekly activity. In raw figures, sports betting contributed approximately $1.2 billion in weekly notional trading for Polymarket and about $2.6 billion for Kalshi.

For investors and users, that concentration matters. A regulatory clampdown that constrains sports-related products could materially reduce liquidity, alter price discovery, and shift user interest toward other categories or away from prediction markets altogether. Operators might respond by adjusting product lines, tightening risk controls, or seeking additional state-level licenses to preserve some degree of activity within a more defined legal perimeter.

State and federal lines sharpened by courts and regulators

The tension between federal supervision and state-level gaming law has sharpened as courts weigh in on the reach of the CEA and the CFTC’s jurisdiction. The Ohio ruling suggested that federal preemption may not be as certain in practice as asserted in some regulatory circles, while Nevada’s temporary injunction against Kalshi underscores how state regulators can effectively pause or limit activity that touches local gambling statutes. These rulings do not settle the policy debate, but they do provide a glimpse into how turning points in law and regulation could shape the trajectory of prediction markets in the United States.

Meanwhile, the CFTC’s latest moves—namely the advisory and the open docket for public feedback—signal that the agency intends to be a central actor in shaping what is permissible. Market participants should monitor how the agency balances innovation with consumer protections and how courts continue to interpret the relationship between federal regulation and state gambling laws.

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What happens next and why it matters

The unfolding story has clear implications for traders, developers, and investors in the prediction-market space. If Congress passes a bill restricting sports betting and casino-style contracts on CFTC-regulated markets, liquidity and product breadth could shrink, potentially pushing users toward state-regulated venues or other platforms with narrower offerings. Conversely, continued regulatory and judicial caution could preserve a larger role for prediction markets in information markets, research, and hedging across political and non-political events, albeit under tighter rules.

As lawmakers prepare to introduce the bipartisan measure and as CFTC rulemaking and court decisions proceed, industry participants should brace for a period of continued policy flux. The outcome will likely influence capital flows, platform strategies, and the pace at which prediction markets evolve from novelty to established financial infrastructure.

Readers should watch the forthcoming bill’s language, committee actions, and any amendments, alongside the CFTC’s rulemaking timetable and related court decisions. The convergence of policy, law, and market dynamics in the coming months will help define the operating landscape for prediction markets in the United States.

In the meantime, the market’s sensitivity to regulatory signals remains high, and investors should prepare for shifts in liquidity and product offerings as the regulatory framework takes clearer shape.

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Bitcoin Traders Warn BTC Price Bear Market Is Set to Resume Toward $46K

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to close the week above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on Sunday put it at risk of another downward leg over the coming weeks or months.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin price signals “structural weakness” with failure to close week above a key trend line.

  • Analysts say the next breakdown clears path for another sell-off toward $46,000.

  • The $47,000 level features as a deep structural support for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin price weakness sparks sub-$50,000 targets

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading at $71,190, or 6% higher than its intraday low of $67,300.

The pair had failed to produce a weekly close above the 200-weekly EMA on Sunday, currently at $68,300, suggesting that last week’s relief rally to $76,000 was a possible bull trap.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

There is evidence of profit-taking every time Bitcoin rises to key accumulation levels, and commenting on the current market setup, many traders warned that any downside could snowball quickly.

Related: Bitcoin risks 50% drop as BTC’s positive correlation with US stocks grows

“$BTC broke down from the rising wedge over the weekend,” said analyst Jelle in a Monday post on X, adding:

“Consolidate here for a day or two, and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking.”

The analyst was referring to the area between the local low of $65,500 and the range low of $59,930 reached on Feb. 6.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Jelle

“BTC has lost the EMA50 once again, and the global crisis feels more insecure today than it did 2 weeks ago,” fellow analyst Stockmoney Lizards said in the latest Bitcoin analysis on X.

Combined with the technical weakness, “it looks like we could be revisiting the sub-$60K area,” the analyst added.

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“Bitcoin is getting close to taking that next leg lower into the mid-$40Ks,” analyst Michael J. Kramer said, referring to the measured target of a bear flag around $46,600.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Michael J. Kramer

These targets echo prediction market traders, who price in a 70% chance that Bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026, while placing the odds of a drop below $45,000 at 46%. 

“Deep structural” support for BTC is at $47,000

Bitcoin is trading near the 200-week EMA at $68,300, coinciding with the realized price of the “largest holder cohort (100-1K BTC),” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

“As long as the price holds above $68K, the largest cohort remains near its cost basis and maintains a more resilient position,” Adler Jr. said in a Bitcoin analysis on Monday, adding:

“A move below this level would signal deteriorating structure and increase the likelihood of a more nervous reaction from large holders.”

Bitcoin realized price balance of 10-100 vs 100-1K. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, the realized price of the 10-100 BTC holder cohort sits notably lower around $46,700, forming a “deep structural threshold that would become meaningful only in the event of a full-scale deterioration in market regime,” the analyst added.