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Trump Reloads as Oil Price Claws Back From a 19% Ceasefire Crash

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Brent crude futures dropped 19.24% on April 8 after the US-Iran ceasefire removed the war premium from oil price in a single session. Then violations, and a loaded threat from Trump, pulled it 8.45% back up.

The whiplash created the widest two-day range since the conflict began in February. Meanwhile, a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart and a short-covering pattern in open interest suggest the bounce may have more room to run. Whether oil price reclaims $100 or rolls back toward $90 depends on which force wins between diplomacy and escalation.

A 19% Drop, an 8% Bounce, and a President Who Says the Guns Stay Loaded

Brent crude futures fell from roughly $111 on April 7 to a low of $90.34 on April 8, a 19.24% single-day decline triggered by the Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire. The market priced in an end to the Strait of Hormuz disruption within hours.

That pricing lasted less than a day. Gulf nations reported attacks during the first 24 hours of the truce, and Iran attached conditions to its commitment to reopen the strait. Oil price responded immediately, bouncing 8.45% from the low as the ceasefire’s credibility crumbled.

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Then Trump weighed in. Late on April 8, the President posted on Truth Social that all US military assets, including ships, aircraft, and personnel, will remain in place around Iran until a final agreement is fully complied with. He added that if compliance fails, the response would come back “bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

Beneath the geopolitical whiplash, the daily chart carries a technical signal. Between March 10 and April 8, Brent crude made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring the speed of price changes, made a lower low. This is a hidden bullish divergence, a signal that the underlying uptrend may continue despite the surface-level chaos.

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Brent Crude RSI Divergence
Brent Crude RSI Divergence: TradingView

Open interest tells a similar story. Since late March, open interest has been declining during price rallies, a pattern consistent with short covering rather than fresh buying. The previous rallies between March 2-9 and March 19 onward both coincided with falling open interest. The current bounce fits the same template.

Brent Crude OI Short Covering
Brent Crude OI Short Covering: TradingView

The technical signals lean bullish. But technical signals in a war-driven market need confirmation from positioning data. The options market provides that next layer.

BNO Options Still Lean Bullish but Hedging Activity Rises

The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) put-call ratio, which compares bearish put options to bullish call options, shows that bulls still dominate but with slightly less conviction than before the crash.

On April 6, before the ceasefire, the volume ratio sat at 0.15 and the open interest ratio at 0.29. Both readings were extremely bullish, meaning call activity outpaced puts by a wide margin. By April 8, after the crash and bounce, the volume ratio had doubled to 0.32 while the open interest ratio edged down to 0.27.

BNO Put-Call Ratio
BNO Put-Call Ratio: Barchart

The doubling of the volume ratio suggests some traders added hedges via puts after the 19% drop. However, 0.32 remains well below 1.0, meaning calls still dominate puts by roughly 3 to 1. The open interest ratio dipping from 0.29 to 0.27 also hints that some long positions may have been liquidated during the crash.

Implied volatility sits at 90.58% with an IV percentile of 91%, meaning options are pricing in more turbulence ahead. The market expects more large moves. The direction of those moves depends on whether the ceasefire holds or fractures further.

With the RSI divergence, short covering, and options positioning all leaning bullish, the oil price chart becomes the final decider.

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Oil Price Levels That Determine the Next Move

Brent crude trades at $96.86 inside an ascending channel that has been intact since late February. The April 8 crash touched the lower trendline near $90.34 and the 50-day EMA at $89.81. Both held. The channel survived its deepest test since formation.

The key level on the upside is $100.45 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This zone aligns closely with the 20-day EMA at $100.29. The last time oil price properly reclaimed the 20-day EMA was January 8, and the rally that followed did not lose steam until the ceasefire announcement. A daily close above $100.45 would signal that the bounce has graduated from short covering to renewed trend strength and could push prices toward $112.34 at the 0.618 level and $120.82 at the 0.786 level.

On the downside, $93.08 at the 0.236 level is the first support. Below that, $90.34 at the April 8 low is the floor. A break below $90 would take Brent outside the ascending channel, turning the structure from bullish to neutral. That would expose $81.18.

Oil Price Analysis
Oil Price Analysis: TradingView

The broader implications extend beyond oil. If Brent reclaims $100 and pushes higher, the petrodollar effect strengthens as oil-importing nations need more dollars to pay for crude. A stronger dollar would pressure gold, silver, and risk assets including crypto. If oil falls below $90 on a successful ceasefire, the reverse could play out.

$100.45 separates a 20-day EMA reclaim with a path back toward $112.34 from a failed bounce that retests $90 and the channel’s lower boundary.

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Hims & Hers (HIMS) Stock Plummets 39% Amid GLP-1 Strategy Shift and Margin Pressure

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HIMS Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • In March 2026, Hims & Hers transitioned away from compounded semaglutide to FDA-approved branded GLP-1 medications
  • Bank of America reduced its HIMS price target to $21 from $23 while maintaining a Neutral stance
  • Analysts project GLP-1 EBITDA contributions may decline by 50% compared to last year
  • Amazon Pharmacy launched Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 medication Foundayo, intensifying market competition
  • Year-to-date, HIMS shares have plunged approximately 39%, hovering near $20

In a significant strategic shift this March, Hims & Hers abandoned its compounded semaglutide offerings in favor of FDA-sanctioned branded GLP-1 treatments. Management positioned this decision as transforming the company into “the largest global consumer health platform for access to more affordable, approved medications.”


HIMS Stock Card
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS

This strategic reversal came after settling legal proceedings with Novo Nordisk. The resolution required Hims & Hers to distribute Novo Nordisk’s authorized GLP-1 medications instead of less expensive compounded alternatives.

Investors have responded harshly to these developments. HIMS shares have plummeted nearly 39% year-to-date through Wednesday, currently trading in the vicinity of $20.

BofA Securities analyst Allen Lutz reduced his price objective on HIMS this week from $23 down to $21. The analyst maintained his Neutral stance, pointing to valuation compression among comparable companies and anticipated near-term profitability headwinds.

Lutz’s forecast suggests 2026 EBITDA could land approximately 20% beneath current Wall Street expectations. His analysis indicates GLP-1-related EBITDA contributions might decline by up to 50% compared to the previous year.

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Neverthstanding the conservative perspective, Lutz indicated his research team holds “slightly more optimistic” views regarding the company’s overseas expansion strategy. He further observed that the $149 monthly branded GLP-1 subscription plan might eventually deliver margins comparable to compounded options, contingent upon subscriber migration rates.

Subscriber Migration Rates Will Determine Success

BofA Securities projects that Hims & Hers might successfully transition between 40% and 50% of current subscribers to branded medication plans, while maintaining 5% to 10% on compounded alternatives. This conversion scenario would produce approximately $60 million to $90 million in GLP-1 revenues each quarter.

The telehealth platform is simultaneously pursuing international market opportunities. Management targets growing this division beyond $1 billion in annual revenue within a three-year timeframe, achieving mid-teens organic compound annual growth rates. Bank of America’s research into the Eucalyptus platform indicates approximately 90% of revenues will derive from branded GLP-1 distribution at roughly 40% gross profit margins.

Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps offered a more bullish assessment. She maintained her Buy recommendation, contending that the Novo Nordisk collaboration represents a “long-term tailwind” for the business. Ripps believes current valuations fail to recognize the value of the company’s telehealth infrastructure, customer base, and broadening treatment offerings.

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Amazon Intensifies Competition With Foundayo Launch

Competitive dynamics became more challenging Thursday when Amazon Pharmacy revealed plans to distribute Eli Lilly’s recently authorized oral GLP-1 medication, Foundayo, featuring same-day delivery options. HIMS shares dipped 0.5% following this announcement. Novo Nordisk declined 1.5%.

Foundayo represents a once-daily oral therapy designed for adults managing obesity or overweight conditions with related health complications. Pricing begins at $25 monthly with insurance coverage, or $149 monthly for self-pay patients.

Amazon will provide same-day delivery across nearly 3,000 metropolitan areas, with plans to extend coverage to 4,500 locations before year-end. The e-commerce giant disclosed it has distributed GLP-1 medications since 2021, with customers saving over $200 million through automated coupon programs, where GLP-1 treatments represent the largest savings category.

Wall Street consensus on HIMS currently stands at Moderate Buy, based on four Buy ratings and 10 Hold ratings issued during the past three months. The mean price target of $26.36 suggests potential upside of approximately 36% from present trading levels.

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Bitcoin (BTC) trades flat as index declines

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-09: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1982.06, down 0.6% (-12.51) since 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

One of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-09: vertical

Leaders: ICP (+1.5%) and BTC (+0.0%).

Laggards: AAVE (-3.6%) and XLM (-2.7%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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ADA could dip lower under broader market pressure

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Cardano bullish PA
Cardano bullish PA

Key takeaways

  • ADA is down 3% and is now trading around $0.2512 per coin.
  • The bearish performance could see ADA slip below the $0.2400 support level.

Cardano (ADA) faces renewed selling pressure as bullish interest fades

Cardano (ADA) continues to face significant selling pressure, with the cryptocurrency extending its 4% loss from Wednesday, falling to the $0.2500 at the time of writing on Thursday. 

The decline has been driven by intense long liquidations in ADA futures over the last 24 hours, signaling a diminishing bullish sentiment among traders. For a potential recovery, Cardano must reclaim the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2672.

The broader market sentiment remains mixed, as the US-Iran ceasefire risks being undermined by Israel’s ongoing missile strikes on Lebanon. While Cardano futures initially saw some bullish interest following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement, this has since diminished.

Data from CoinGlass reveals that liquidated ADA derivatives positions over the past 24 hours totaled $602,370, with $544,540 coming from long liquidations, indicating a significant wipeout of bullish positions. This liquidation pressure has contributed to an 6% drop in ADA futures Open Interest (OI), which now stands at $412.36 million.

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Furthermore, the OI-weighted funding rate dropped to -0.0045% on Thursday, indicating that traders are increasingly shifting towards short positions.

ADA could dip below the $0.2400 support level

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient following the recent day. ADA is currently trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Momentum indicators only hint at tentative stabilization rather than a clear bullish shift. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a marginally positive reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53 hovers just above the neutral midline level.

ADA/USD 4H Chart

If the selloff continues, ADA could slip towards the March 29 low at $0.2328, with the February 6 low at $0.2205 providing further support.

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On the flip side, if the bulls regain control, they would encounter initial resistance at the 50-day EMA around $0.2673. A daily close above this barrier would ease the immediate bearish tone and open the way toward the $0.2991 resistance level.

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XRP Ripple Just Outpaced Bitcoin in Weekly ETP Inflows: Is $120 Million a Sign Institutions Are Loading Up?

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XRP Ripple Just Outpaced Bitcoin in Weekly ETP Inflows: Is $120 Million a Sign Institutions Are Loading Up?

Ripple XRP recorded $120 million in weekly ETP inflows for the period ending April 7, 2026 – its strongest weekly haul since mid-December 2025 and the single largest contributor to global crypto ETP inflows that week, according to CoinShares data.

Total global crypto ETP inflows for the week hit $224 million, rebounding sharply from a prior $414 million outflow.

XRP’s $120 million slice outpaced Bitcoin’s $107 million and Solana’s $35 million, accounting for over 50% of the entire market’s weekly intake.

Source: TKL

The core question now: is institutional investment in XRP building a permanent structural position, or is this a single-week rotation that evaporates on the next macro shock?

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Ripple XRP Price Outlook: Can XRP Break $1.50 as Institutional Money Arrives?

Ripple XRP was trading in the $1.35–$1.40 range during the inflow week, posting a 5–6% weekly gain partially driven by US-Iran ceasefire optimism. The recovery looks constructive on the surface. Dig into the chart structure and the picture is considerably more complicated.

The 3-day chart is showing a death cross – the 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA. That same pattern preceded a 54% price collapse in January 2026.

Source: Tradingview

RSI sits near 44 on the daily, not yet oversold but well below the 50 neutral line, reflecting a market still in damage-control mode rather than recovery mode.

Key support levels sit at $1.28, $1.18, and $1.05 – the last being a major structural floor from the pre-ETF launch period. On the resistance side, XRP faces a descending trendline from early March capping near $1.48, with $1.65 and $1.85 as the next meaningful ceilings if that line breaks with volume.

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Derivatives open interest has been declining alongside the price recovery, which signals thin conviction behind the bounce – institutions buying ETPs aren’t the same as leveraged longs pushing spot price.

A clean breakout above $1.48 with sustained daily volume opens the door to $1.65, with $1.85 as the macro target if broader crypto sentiment flips.

For us, the invalidation is simple: a close below $1.28 on the daily reopens the path to sub-$1.10 and calls the entire inflow thesis into question. Prior price analysis on the $119.6M inflow week flagged this same trendline resistance as the decisive level.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Resistance

XRP’s institutional setup is real. But at a market cap north of $75 billion, the math on asymmetric returns gets harder to ignore.

A 10x from current levels requires XRP to reach a market cap larger than Bitcoin’s current valuation – that’s not a trade, that’s a thesis that needs decades and dominant global payment rail adoption to validate.

Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) is currently in presale, targeting early-mover upside in the Bitcoin yield infrastructure layer – a sector drawing serious institutional attention as US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $471.3 million in a single week.

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The presale has raised $32 million to date, with the current token price at $0.0093 and staking APY running at 86% annualized for early participants.

The core technical differentiator: Bitcoin Hyper operates as a Bitcoin-native Layer 2 executing smart contracts with BTC as the settlement asset – bypassing the wrapped-token credit risk that plagues existing BTC DeFi infrastructure. That’s a specific, verifiable architecture claim in a space full of vague interoperability promises.

For traders watching XRP’s institutional flows but frustrated by the price-action disconnect, the asymmetry argument is straightforward: ETP inflows into large-cap assets move sentiment; early presale positioning in infrastructure plays moves portfolios.

Research Bitcoin Hyper here before the presale window closes.

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The post XRP Ripple Just Outpaced Bitcoin in Weekly ETP Inflows: Is $120 Million a Sign Institutions Are Loading Up? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Enjin surges 45% as volume and open interest hit multi-month highs

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Sui price bullish
Sui price bullish

Key takeaways

  • ENJ is one of the best performers in the crypto market, up 45% in the last 24 hours.
  • The rally could allow ENJ to surge towards $0.045 in the near term. 

Enjin Coin (ENJ) continues to rally

Enjin Coin (ENJ) extends its gains, holding steady above $0.035 on Thursday following a remarkable 45% price increase in the last 24 hours. 

This bullish momentum is underpinned by both on-chain and derivatives data, with a positive technical outlook suggesting that ENJ may continue its upward trend in the near future.

Data obtained from Santiment shows that Enjin Coin’s ecosystem trading volume surged to $216.97 million on Thursday, marking the highest trading volume since April 2025. 

Meanwhile, CoinGlass data shows that ENJ’s futures Open Interest (OI) reached a new record of $74.68 million on Thursday, up significantly from $19.82 million on Tuesday. A rising OI indicates fresh capital entering the market, which could further propel the coin’s price upward.

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Despite the rally, traders remain cautious as some early signs of buyer fatigue begin to surface. According to CryptoQuant, there is a rise in retail activity, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. 

Furthermore, sell-side dominance in both the spot and futures markets may point to potential bearish pressure, signaling that the current rally could face resistance in the near term.

ENJ eyes further gains after 45% increase

The ENJ/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient thanks to the 45% rally. The rally has lifted ENJ price back above the short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), leaving only the 200-day EMA at $0.035 as immediate overhead resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reads 70, indicating a bullish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram turning strongly positive reinforces growing upside momentum.

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ENJ/USD 4H Chart

If the rally persists, initial resistance is seen at the 200-day EMA at $0.035. If the daily candle closes above this level, it could extend its rally towards the $0.051 resistance level, followed by $0.066 and $0.082 zones. 

However, if the bears regain control, ENJ would likely face the initial support at $0.031. The 100-day EMA at $0.024 and the 50-day EMA at $0.022, together with the lower horizontal level at $0.019, form a deeper demand zone that could also prove to be bouncing support levels in the near term.

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Crypto Exchanges Vie for TradFi Commodities Market, Pricing Gaps Remain

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Crypto Exchanges Vie for TradFi Commodities Market, Pricing Gaps Remain

Cryptocurrency exchanges are taking a growing market share from traditional finance (TradFi) trading venues through tokenized commodities products, but the mainstream adoption of tokenized precious metals remains limited by pricing and liquidity issues.

Silver perpetuals have reached about 40% of the equivalent volume of the Comex Silver (SI) Contract at their peak, the world’s largest silver futures market, which accounts for over 70% of global exchange-traded silver futures volume, according to a Thursday report from Binance Research.

During March and April, tokenized silver accounted for 14.90% and 14.98% of the Comex’s volume, respectively, up from just 1.37% in January.

The growth suggests crypto exchanges are capturing more demand for round-the-clock exposure to traditional assets, particularly in metals-linked perpetuals, but analysts at Kaiko said liquidity depth and price formation still pose major obstacles to wider adoption among traditional investors.

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Average Aggregated TradFi-Perps Volume to The Primary Futures Equivalents on Traditional Exchanges. Source: Binance Research

Crypto TradFi perps need reliable pricing, strong liquidity

Tokenized commodities offer 24/7 trading, which can create vulnerabilities compared to TradFi gold and silver futures, where the holiday and weekend close create “natural circuit breakers that actually protect market quality,” Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen told Cointelegraph.

This exposes tokenized commodities to degraded order book debt, widened spreads and less reference pricing from closed traditional venues.

Legacy commodities offerings avoid these issues through centralized clearing, consolidated liquidity, standardized contracts and “coordinated operating hours that prevent liquidity deserts,” Fraussen said, adding that crypto needs “better chain abstraction and unified liquidity aggregation” to compete with TradFi.

Related: NYSE taps Securitize for 24/7 tokenized securities platform

Despite the infrastructure concerns, tokenized gold perps have surpassed the gold futures trading volumes of several regional commodity exchanges, a trend seeing monthly acceleration, according to Binance Research.

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Figure 3: Average Aggregated Volume of Gold-Perps to Gold Futures in Regional Exchanges, in March

Binance Research also said gold perpetuals outpaced several regional commodity exchanges in March, reaching 401% compared to gold futures trading on the Japanese energy commodities futures exchange TOCOM, 228% of India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and 216% of the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX).

Binance attributed part of this growth to “market-moving events” that routinely occur on weekends, which would leave investors exposed to gap risks through traditional venues operating under regular trading hours.

Magazine: Can Robinhood or Kraken’s tokenized stocks ever be truly decentralized?