Iran is demanding the right to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition for reopening the vital waterway after its war with the United States and Israel.

The strait is a key route for global oil supplies, but analysts warn that charging ships would violate the long-standing principle of freedom of navigation under international law.

The United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea, in effect since 1994, guarantees the “innocent passage” of ships through straits that do not threaten coastal states.

Experts say allowing Iran to collect tolls could set a dangerous precedent.

“Freedom of navigation has always been recognized, including specifically in straits,” said Philippe Delebecque, a maritime law professor at Paris’ Sorbonne University.

He added that if Iran were allowed to charge tolls, other strategic waterways like the Strait of Gibraltar or the Strait of Malacca could face similar restrictions, potentially undermining international maritime order.

According to AP News, after the war began on February 28, Iran blocked the strait with attacks and threats, causing immediate shortages in Asia and higher gasoline prices in the US and Europe.

It then implemented a “tollbooth” scheme, requiring ships to detour around Larak Island and submit detailed information about their crew and cargo to intermediaries of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

At least two vessels reportedly paid $2 million in Chinese yuan for passage.

US Opposes Iran’s Hormuz Toll Plan

Iran’s 10-point proposal to end the war includes allowing itself and Oman to charge ships passing through the strait, with the funds earmarked for reconstruction, according to a regional official involved in the negotiations.

While the financial impact of tolls on global oil prices might be small—around $1 per barrel on a fully loaded tanker—experts warn about the geopolitical consequences.

An Iranian toll could enrich the Revolutionary Guards and encourage other countries to restrict navigation in their waters, including China in the Taiwan Strait.

US President Donald Trump has prioritized reopening the strait, but the White House opposes tolls, Inquirer reported.

Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, share the concern, fearing that Iranian control could limit oil exports.

The region has already had to shut down roughly 12 million barrels per day in crude production due to the blockade, and pipelines bypassing the strait are insufficient to replace lost shipments.

Julien Raynaut, head of the French Association of Maritime Law, said, “Not having ratified the convention doesn’t give Iran total freedom of action in the Strait of Hormuz. It remains subject to international law and notably this customary right of passage.”

Analysts argue that reopening the strait freely would stabilize energy prices, reduce the geopolitical windfall for Russia, and restore a measure of predictability to global trade.

Originally published on vcpost.com

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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump warned Wednesday that U.S. military forces will remain positioned around Iran and stand ready to resume combat operations if Tehran fails to fully comply with what he called the “real agreement” reached in a fragile two-week ceasefire, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional strikes threaten to unravel the delicate truce.

In a Truth Social post early Wednesday, Trump stated that all U.S. ships, aircraft and military personnel, along with additional ammunition and weaponry, would stay in place “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He added a stark warning: “If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

The comments came less than 24 hours after Trump announced the two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday evening, just hours before his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants. The agreement, which also involves Israel, was intended to pause more than a month of direct conflict that began in February 2026 and had escalated dramatically in recent weeks.

Trump had earlier escalated his rhetoric dramatically on Tuesday, warning that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran did not meet his demands. He later pulled back from immediate action after what he described as a “workable” 10-point proposal from Iran, though he later dismissed some media reports of the plan’s details as a “made up HOAX.”

The ceasefire is contingent on the safe and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies normally pass. Vessel traffic through the strait remained negligible as of Thursday morning, with shipping data showing hundreds of tankers still anchored or rerouted. Iranian media reported suspensions in tanker traffic, citing risks from possible sea mines and Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while the White House described such reports as “false.”

Iranian officials offered mixed signals. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf called negotiations with the U.S. “unreasonable” and accused Washington of violating several of Tehran’s conditions for ending the fighting. Iranian state media suggested Tehran might formalize new tolls on ships passing through the strait, a move the White House has opposed.

Despite the public friction, both sides claimed elements of victory. Trump described the pause as allowing time to finalize a longer-term peace agreement in the Middle East, while Iranian statements framed the ceasefire as a successful stand against U.S. and Israeli pressure. Vice President JD Vance echoed the president’s hard line, warning that failure to honor the deal would bring “serious consequences.”

The fragile truce faces multiple challenges. Israel has continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran views as a violation of the broader de-escalation spirit. Reports of new drone and missile activity in the Gulf region emerged shortly after the ceasefire announcement, though it remained unclear whether they breached the terms.

Background to the Escalation

The conflict intensified after U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian facilities earlier in 2026. Trump repeatedly framed the military campaign as highly successful, claiming U.S. forces had “met and exceeded all military objectives” and left Iran’s capabilities “substantially degraded.”

The Strait of Hormuz became the central flashpoint. When Iran restricted traffic in response to the strikes, global oil prices spiked before easing on ceasefire news. Major shipping companies have diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope or explored limited alternative pipelines, but full resumption of normal flows depends on verifiable safe passage.

Trump has emphasized that U.S. forces will not withdraw until compliance is assured. “We are helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” he posted, adding that “there will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.”

International reactions have been cautious. Allies including the United Kingdom have offered to assist with reopening the strait, while analysts warn that any misstep could rapidly reignite direct hostilities. Some legal experts previously raised concerns that threats to destroy civilian infrastructure could violate international law, though the White House has denied plans involving nuclear weapons or indiscriminate attacks.

Market and Global Impact

Oil prices showed modest volatility Wednesday, with Brent crude rising more than 2% after earlier sharp declines on ceasefire hopes. Energy traders remain wary, monitoring both Hormuz traffic and any signs of renewed Iranian restrictions.

The ceasefire has also affected broader regional dynamics. Lebanon continues to see Israeli strikes, straining the agreement’s scope. Gulf Arab states have expressed relief at the pause but remain concerned about long-term stability and potential Iranian retaliation through proxies.

What Comes Next

The two-week window is intended to allow negotiations, possibly beginning in Islamabad, to solidify a more permanent arrangement. Trump has signaled optimism about a “definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East,” while maintaining maximum military pressure as leverage.

Critics, including some Democrats in Congress and international observers, have condemned the apocalyptic tone of Trump’s earlier statements. Supporters argue the tough approach forced Iran to the table after weeks of escalation.

For now, the situation remains fluid. Shipping companies await clear guidance on safe transit, naval forces stay on high alert, and diplomats work behind the scenes to prevent the ceasefire from collapsing within its first days.

Trump’s latest warning serves as a reminder that while the immediate threat of wider war has receded, the path to lasting de-escalation is narrow and heavily conditioned on verifiable compliance — particularly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Any perceived violation, whether real or perceived, could trigger the renewed “shootin’” the president has promised would be unprecedented in scale.

As the ceasefire enters its second day, global markets, energy security and millions of lives in the region hang in the balance. The coming weeks will test whether the fragile agreement can hold or whether the region slides back into open conflict.

AUGUSTA, Ga.— Scottie Scheffler arrives at Augusta National as the clear betting favorite to claim his third green jacket Thursday when the 90th Masters Tournament begins, but defending champion Rory McIlroy’s bid for back-to-back titles adds drama to a star-studded field packed with major winners and in-form challengers.

Scheffler, the world No. 1, opened as the +510 to +550 favorite across major sportsbooks, according to FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM lines released in the final hours before Thursday’s 7:40 a.m. ET tee times. The 29-year-old Texan has won the Masters in each of the last two even-numbered years — 2022 and 2024 — and enters this week as the game’s most consistent performer despite a recent lull that saw him finish no better than 12th in three straight starts.

Yet oddsmakers and models still give him the edge. SportsLine’s simulation, which has correctly picked 16 major winners including the past four Masters, projects Scheffler among the top contenders after running 10,000 tournament scenarios. His ball-striking remains elite, and Augusta National’s firm-and-fast conditions expected this week play to his strengths off the tee and with the irons.

McIlroy, 36, returns as the first player since Tiger Woods in 2001-02 with a realistic shot at consecutive green jackets. The Northern Irishman completed the career Grand Slam with a dramatic playoff victory over Justin Rose in 2025. For the first time in 18 Masters appearances, he arrives without the weight of chasing that elusive final major. His recent form has been mixed — a T-46 at the Players Championship and a withdrawal at the Arnold Palmer Invitational — but his Augusta history (14 cuts made) and motivation could prove decisive.

“Rory has the carrot of history dangling in front of him now,” one analyst noted in pre-tournament previews. Only three players — Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Woods — have won back-to-back Masters in the modern era. McIlroy sits at +1,200 to +1,300, making him a live underdog in what many are calling the deepest field in years.

Right behind Scheffler in the odds are two LIV Golf standouts who have dominated headlines. Bryson DeChambeau, fresh off back-to-back LIV victories, has climbed to +1,000 to +1,050 and is the public’s favorite bet at several books, becoming BetMGM’s largest liability. The 2020 U.S. Open champion has posted top-six finishes in each of the past two Masters and appears to have finally solved Augusta’s puzzle after years of public frustration with the layout.

Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, checks in at +900 to +1,000. The Spaniard has answered early doubts about his post-LIV form with four top-15 major finishes in his last five starts and multiple LIV top-fives this season. He remains a proven major closer at Augusta.

Xander Schauffele (+1,500), Ludvig Åberg (+1,600 to +1,700), Cameron Young (+2,200) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2,200) round out the top tier of contenders. Schauffele’s major pedigree and consistent top-10s at Augusta make him a safe top-five play, while Åberg’s runner-up finish in 2024 and T-7 last year keep him in the conversation despite a recent dip that included four missed cuts in eight major starts.

Fleetwood, ranked No. 4 in the latest Official World Golf Ranking, offers value according to the SportsLine model. The Englishman has five top-25 Masters finishes in eight tries, including a T-3 in 2024, and enters the week with strong form: four top-10s in five 2026 starts. His driving accuracy and approach play could shine if the greens remain lightning-quick.

Other notable names include 2021 champion Hideki Matsuyama (+2,700), three-time major winner Brooks Koepka (+4,500) and 2018 champion Patrick Reed (+3,500). First-time major hopefuls such as Robert MacIntyre (+2,700) and Min Woo Lee (+3,000) add intrigue, though history favors experience at Augusta.

Current Official World Golf Rankings released this week reinforce the depth: Scheffler leads, followed by McIlroy, Young, Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. The top 10 includes several players who have won or contended at majors recently.

Augusta National’s setup this year features the traditional fast fairways and lightning-quick greens that reward precision. Practice rounds revealed firm conditions that could punish wayward drives and demand pinpoint iron play into the par-5s. Chairman Fred Ridley addressed the field Wednesday, emphasizing the course’s timeless challenge amid evolving player power.

Weather forecasts call for mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 70s, ideal for scoring but potentially treacherous if winds pick up on the weekend.

Betting trends show heavy action on Scheffler (nearly 10 percent of tickets and 17 percent of dollars at BetMGM) despite his longest pre-tournament odds since 2023. DeChambeau and Koepka have drawn public money, while longer shots like Akshay Bhatia have seen odds shorten dramatically.

Experts remain split. Some see Scheffler’s pedigree and course knowledge as unbeatable; others point to McIlroy’s emotional lift from the 2025 win or DeChambeau’s red-hot putter. The Athletic’s Big Board ranks Scheffler first, McIlroy second, DeChambeau third, Schauffele fourth and Rahm fifth, citing each player’s recent strokes-gained metrics and Augusta-specific success.

ESPN’s panel and Golf Channel analysts highlighted the “wide-open” nature of the event, with multiple players capable of posting the week’s low score. Yet the consensus leans Scheffler unless his recent inconsistency resurfaces under Sunday pressure.

A Scheffler victory would mark his third Masters title and cement his status as the game’s dominant force. A McIlroy repeat would etch his name alongside golf’s immortals. Either outcome — or a surprise from the likes of Fleetwood or Fitzpatrick — would cap a compelling week at the year’s first major.

As the opening round begins under the towering pines of Augusta National, one thing is certain: the 2026 Masters promises fireworks, with Scheffler the man to beat and McIlroy the story everyone will be watching. (Word count: 1,012)