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Trump’s CFTC Shields His Family’s Prediction Market Partners From Prosecution

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a motion Wednesday seeking a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order against Arizona’s enforcement of state gambling laws on prediction markets.

The motion escalates an already historic conflict. The agency sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois last week, marking the first time in its 50-year history that it has sued a state.

Federal Power Play With Family Ties

CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig framed the injunction request as a defense of federal authority, noting that the CFTC will vigorously defend its exclusive authority over prediction markets.

“The agency won’t stand for intimidation by states seeking to nullify federal law,” wrote Selig in a post.

It follows a motion in Arizona that builds on a recent filing against States that use criminal and gambling laws to interfere with CFTC-regulated prediction markets.

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Arizona’s decision to weaponize preempted state criminal law against companies that comply with a comprehensive federal regime sets a dangerous precedent… The CFTC is committed to vigorously defending its exclusive authority over prediction markets,” read an excerpt in the press release, citing Selig.

Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi in March, alleging illegal gambling and unauthorized election wagering.

The CFTC argues that prediction markets fall under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which grants the agency exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts.

However, the platforms the CFTC is defending carry significant financial ties to the Trump family.

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Donald Trump Jr. serves as a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi and sits on Polymarket’s advisory board. His venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, invested millions into Polymarket in August 2025.

Crypto.com, Robinhood, and the Conflict Question

The connections extend further. Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) partnered with Crypto.com to build Truth Predict, a prediction market platform for Truth Social.

Crypto.com has donated at least $35 million to MAGA Inc., Trump’s primary Super PAC.

Robinhood announced Monday it will serve as the brokerage and initial trustee for Trump Accounts. All four companies received cease-and-desist letters from the states the CFTC is now suing.

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Georgia State University professor Todd Phillips told NPR the federal suits go beyond advocacy. He described them as an attempt to tilt the scales in favor of prediction markets.

Connecticut Attorney General William Tong pushed back, calling prediction market contracts plainly unlicensed illegal gambling and pledging to defend state consumer protection laws.

The Ninth Circuit will hear oral arguments on April 16 in a consolidated case involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com.

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That ruling could determine whether prediction markets operate under one federal framework or face state-by-state restrictions.

The post Trump’s CFTC Shields His Family’s Prediction Market Partners From Prosecution appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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StarkWare Researcher Publishes Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transaction Scheme

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StarkWare Researcher Publishes Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transaction Scheme

The QSB scheme uses only existing Bitcoin consensus rules, sidestepping the network’s contentious upgrade process.

A researcher at StarkWare has published an open-source scheme for making Bitcoin transactions resistant to quantum computing attacks using only the network’s existing consensus rules — requiring no softfork, no protocol upgrade, and no community-wide coordination.

The project, called Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB), was released on GitHub by Avihu Levy, StarkWare’s chief product officer and a leading Bitcoin researcher at the firm who previously co-authored ColliderScript, a protocol for enabling stateful computation on Bitcoin without consensus changes. Levy also co-authored BIP-360, the quantum-resistant address proposal that was merged into Bitcoin’s official BIP repository in February — a proposal that, unlike QSB, would require a softfork.

“StarkWare has some of the best hackers on the planet,” Eric Wall, co-founder of Taproot Wizards and board member of the Starknet Foundation, wrote on X. “It is beautiful to see when hackers use their powers for good.”

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QSB builds on Binohash, a transaction introspection technique developed by BitVM creator Robin Linus of ZeroSync and Stanford University that was demonstrated on Bitcoin mainnet in February.

No Softfork Required

The no-softfork distinction is what sets QSB apart. Most paths to hardening Bitcoin against quantum attacks, including BIP-360 and hash-based signature schemes like SPHINCS+, require protocol-level changes that must navigate Bitcoin’s notoriously slow and contentious governance process.

That governance bottleneck is increasingly seen as the real vulnerability. A Google Quantum AI paper published March 30 concluded that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve cryptography could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — a roughly 20-fold reduction from prior estimates. The paper warned that a sufficiently advanced machine could derive a private key from an exposed public key in about nine minutes, narrowly inside Bitcoin’s 10-minute block window. Google itself has set a 2029 deadline to migrate its own authentication services to post-quantum cryptography.

QSB sidesteps the governance question entirely. The scheme operates within Bitcoin’s tightest legacy script constraints — 201 opcodes and a 10,000-byte script limit — and can be used by anyone willing to pay roughly $75 to $150 in cloud GPU compute and submit their transaction directly to a miner via a service like MARA’s Slipstream.

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StarkWare has been at the center of Bitcoin’s quantum-defense efforts. Co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson has argued that Bitcoin must begin responding to the quantum threat now.

How It Works

Standard Bitcoin transactions use a digital signature scheme called ECDSA to prove ownership of funds. A quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could reverse-engineer that signature process, deriving private keys from public keys and stealing coins.

QSB swaps out the security model. Instead of relying on the mathematical hardness of elliptic curves — which quantum computers can break — it relies on the hardness of reversing hash functions, which they cannot. The scheme forces a would-be spender to solve a computationally expensive hash puzzle that binds the transaction to a specific set of parameters. Any attempt to alter the transaction invalidates the puzzle solution, requiring the attacker to redo the work from scratch.

The result is roughly 118 bits of security against Shor’s algorithm, compared to effectively zero for standard Bitcoin transactions in a post-quantum world.

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Early Stage

The project remains a work in progress. The GPU pinning search — the first of three phases required to construct a quantum-safe transaction — has been successfully tested, finding a valid result after roughly six hours across eight Nvidia RTX PRO 6000 GPUs. But the digest search and on-chain broadcast have not yet been completed end-to-end.

There are practical constraints as well. The transactions exceed default relay policy limits and must be submitted directly to miners. The locking script must be placed as a bare output because it exceeds P2SH’s 520-byte redeem script limit.

Still, the release demonstrates that a degree of quantum resistance is achievable on Bitcoin today — for anyone willing to bear the cost — without waiting for the community to agree on a softfork.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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ETH Price Eyes $2.5K As Data Points To Undervalued Conditions

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ETH Price Eyes $2.5K As Data Points To Undervalued Conditions

Ether (ETH) may be on the path to retesting $2,500 if the current rally above $2,150 and the bullish spot and futures market volumes pushing prices higher are sustained.

Ether is also supported by a key macro indicator that places the altcoin in a rare undervaluation zone not seen since 2022. The data points to fading selling pressure and the early stages of an accumulation process for Ether.

ETH price structure strengthens above $2,150

Ether’s daily chart shows bulls leading the charge after a 6.33% rally pushed the price above the $2,150 resistance. ETH now eyes a retest of its March highs near $2,385, with further upside toward the $2,475–$2,635 fair-value gap acting as a price magnet for bulls.

Repeat retests of $2,150 over the past two months suggest weakening resistance, as buyers continue stepping in at higher levels.

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ETH/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Charts show ETH market structure improving and the current volumes being largely spot market driven. On the four-hour chart, ETH maintains higher lows while attempting to break into the $2,250–$2,300 range.

The aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has remained elevated in April at 184,500 ETH, reflecting sustained spot demand.

ETH spot CVD, futures CVD, open interest and funding rate. Source: Velo.chart

The futures CVD has also trended gradually upward to 4.36 million ETH, suggesting that derivatives traders are beginning to support, rather than lead, the move.

The funding rate remains positive at 0.0052, indicating a long bias, and the open interest near 4.75 million ETH is still range-bound, signaling limited leverage.

Data shows ETH is in a controlled accumulation phase, marginally led by spot demand, though a stronger breakout would likely require an expansion in futures positioning.

Related: Ethereum stablecoin supply hits $180B all-time high: Token Terminal

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Macro index shows ETH in a “rare” undervalued zone

Ether may be nearing a macro bottom according to the Capriole Macro Index Oscillator with a reading at -2.42. This puts Ether in a rare undervalued zone historically linked with capitulation and trend reversals.

The indicator tracks investment behavior, cycle positioning, and onchain data, with deeply negative values often signaling seller exhaustion.

Previous signals highlight the metric’s reliability. In June to July 2022, ETH bottomed near $1,000–$1,200 when the indicator fell to -2.2. In October to November 2023, a drop to -1 aligned with ETH’s price breaking out after a drop to $1,500.

In April 2025, another negative reading marked a local bottom near $1,500, setting the stage for a rally above $4,000.

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Macro Index Oscillator for ETH. Source: Capriole Investments

The current setup mirrors prior capitulation phases. ETH has fallen from highs near $4,800 to $2,100, while the oscillator sits near cycle lows.

With ETH now in a rare undervalued zone, the downside risk appears limited relative to the upside potential. However, the confirmation would come with a reclaim of the $2,400–$2,500 level and a move back toward zero for the macro indicator.

Analyst crypto sunmoon noted that the ETH taker buy/sell ratio has been trending upward for four to five months.

Combined with the current drawdown, the structure resembles the setup preceding the April to May 2025 rally, suggesting a similar recovery phase may be forming.

Ether taker buy-sell ratio on all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Three reasons why Ether traders expect ETH to hold above $1.8K