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Institutions’ bitcoin positioning lacks conviction; CPI, Iran talks might help

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Ticker image (CoinDesk)
Ticker image (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin’s price may have rallied almost 7% since Sunday, but conviction remains weak, with the recovery stalling near $72,000 ahead of key binary risks, including Friday’s U.S. inflation report and U.S.-Iran truce talks this weekend.

The cautious approach is evident in the options market, where institutions continue to chase upside via calls, the derivative contracts that allow traders to bet on gains of the underlying asset.

According to QCP Capital, options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) show demand for the $45 call expiring in May. That means traders expect IBIT’s price to rise above that level from the present $40. Bitcoin options on Deribit have seen similar flows, with the $80,000 call emerging as the most popular bet. Still, demand for puts, which offer downside protection, persists.

“IBIT options showed sustained open interest in the May 45 call, holding above 80k+ contracts through the week, while downside hedging remained in place via puts and long-dated protection. The combination reflects a market participating in upside, but not abandoning hedges,” the Singapore-based trading firm, which is one of the world’s largest crypto market makers, said in an email.

The sticky demand for protection against declines is also revealed in options skew, which measures the price differential between calls and puts, and remains negative across all time frames. That indicates a lingering bias for put options.

“The skew picture is clear: institutions are buying downside protection and selling upside calls. After the Iran war headlines, some of the tail risk has been priced out, so skew has eased, but the underlying flow remains firmly one-directional. Demand for puts, supply of calls,” Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, a principal trading firm specializing in digital asset derivatives, told CoinDesk.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for March is expected to show a marked increase in annualized inflation to well over 3%, led primarily by rising energy prices.

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That shouldn’t come as a surprise, given that the Iran war led to a sharp surge in oil and gasoline prices worldwide. Still, markets may see volatility if the core figure, which excludes food and energy, blows past the annualized 2.7% estimate. That would further cement the case for Fed rate increases, potentially weighing on risk assets such as BTC.

Beyond CPI, the weekend meeting between Iranian and U.S. delegates in Pakistan holds the key to financial market stability. BTC’s rally will likely accelerate if they find a way to end the war and normalize oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The first cues could come through Hyperliquid-listed oil perpetual futures. Stay alert!

What’s trending

Today’s signal

Swings in the MOVE index since June 2025. (TradingView)

The chart shows swings in the ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE), which reflects volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.

Sharp spikes in the index indicate rising uncertainty around inflation, interest rates or macro shocks. Treasury notes anchor the global finance and collateral and credit creation. Hence, increased turbulence in U.S. bonds often coincides with tighter financial conditions and broader risk-off sentiment spilling into equities, credit, and crypto markets.

The index popped in March, rising to 115% from 73% only to drop back to 74% this month. It showed that the world’s most important bond market is calm again, a green signal for crypto bulls.

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Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today .

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Premarket data (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

Ethereum Flashes Bullish Signal Not Seen Since 2022 on Binance Futures

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ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio

Ethereum’s (ETH) Taker Buy-Sell Ratio on Binance is flashing a signal not seen in nearly three years. The monthly average has climbed to around 1.016 and has held above 1 for several consecutive days.

The shift suggests that market-buy orders are outpacing sells on Binance’s ETH perpetual contracts, a signal CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged as “early stages of a more constructive trend.”

Why Derivatives Data Matters More For ETH

For context, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio tracks the balance between market buy and sell volumes on perpetual contracts. A reading above 1 means aggressive buyers are outpacing sellers.

What stands out now is the monthly average holding above 1 for multiple consecutive days.

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“This reflects a progressive return of buyer dominance on perpetual markets, suggesting the early stages of a more constructive trend,” the analyst said. “This therefore marks a constructive development for Ethereum, not seen since 2023.”

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ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio
ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio. Source: X/Darkfost

The signal carries added weight because futures activity on Binance now dwarfs spot trading. The exchange’s spot-to-futures volume ratio recently fell to 0.13, meaning roughly $7 in futures changes hands for every $1 in actual ETH buying.

That imbalance makes derivatives positioning the primary driver of short-term price action. Moreover, Binance accounts for approximately 37% of global ETH open interest. According to the analyst, this dominance makes it a key venue for assessing derivatives positioning.

Notably, the ratio’s move above 1 has been incremental rather than sudden. The analyst considers this pattern healthier than a sharp spike, which tends to create overleveraged positioning and trigger cascading liquidations.

The development comes despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, suggesting early-stage structural improvement in ETH sentiment. However, the derivatives-heavy market structure still poses risks. A futures-led rally without matching spot demand could amplify volatility if positions unwind quickly.

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The post Ethereum Flashes Bullish Signal Not Seen Since 2022 on Binance Futures appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Heads Toward New Local Highs As US CPI Brushes Off Gas-Price Surge

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Bitcoin Heads Toward New Local Highs As US CPI Brushes Off Gas-Price Surge

Bitcoin (BTC) tagged $73,000 following Friday’s Wall Street open as crucial US inflation numbers came in below expectations.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin edges higher as US CPI data remains slightly below market expectations.

  • Gasoline prices see a historic surge within the CPI release.

  • Bitcoin traders plan out key resistance levels overhead.

BTC price seeks new local highs after CPI

Data from TradingView showed BTC price eyeing new multi-week highs as markets digested the March print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This was the week’s key macro data release, and the first CPI report to reflect the impact of the US and Israel war in Iran.

Gasoline prices jumped over 21% month-on-month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed, but overall CPI finished 0.1% lower than markets’ expectations.

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“Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment,” an official news release read. 

“The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase.”

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the gas-price CPI jump was the largest monthly gain since 1967. The energy increase, it added in a further post on X, was the largest since 2005.

With the resulting mixed picture of inflationary forces, US stocks were mostly flat at the open, while BTC price action also avoided major moves up or down.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Markets, however, had no hope for the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates — a conclusion already in place on the back of Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index release, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Bitcoin traders draw the next resistance zones

Among Bitcoin market participants, there was modest reason for optimism over the short-term price outlook.

Related: Bitcoin analysis sees $55K BTC price ‘iron bottom’ by December 2026

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In their latest X analysis, trader JDK Analysis flagged BTC/USD acting within a narrowing wedge — a topic of debate since February.

“If price makes another attempt at the current key high, the reaction there will be critical!” they wrote in accompanying commentary.

BTC/USD perpetual contract eight-hour chart. Source: JDK Analysis/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile eyed exchange order-book liquidity below $74,000.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a copycat signal from Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) that began to echo the end of the 2022 bear market.

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