TLDR

• BTC escaped a bear pennant formation, climbing to a six-week peak of $73,300
• Key resistance territory identified by Glassnode sits in the $78,000-$80,000 range
• Prediction markets on Polymarket now show 26% probability of BTC hitting $80,000 this month
• Institutional Bitcoin ETF buyers accumulated 3,350 BTC valued at $240 million on Friday alone
• Geopolitical developments including U.S.-Iran détente and improving macro sentiment drove BTC up almost 9% weekly

Bitcoin surged beyond the $73,000 threshold on Friday, touching a six-week peak at $73,300 following a decisive breakout from what technical analysts had identified as a bear pennant formation on daily timeframes. The advance occurred alongside elevated trading volumes, suggesting genuine buying conviction rather than thin market manipulation.

The cryptocurrency pierced through the pennant’s upper boundary near $70,000, delivering a 7% single-session gain. During this advance, BTC successfully recaptured multiple significant moving average levels, notably the 200-week exponential moving average positioned at $68,350 and the 50-day exponential moving average sitting at $70,580.

Technicians have also spotted a symmetrical triangle developing on daily charts. Should this pattern complete its typical trajectory, the projected upside target reaches approximately $87,000—representing roughly 20% appreciation from current pricing. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index displays bullish divergence, indicating momentum has been gradually accumulating throughout the previous two months.

The immediate technical obstacle for Bitcoin sits at the 100-day exponential moving average hovering near $75,400. Failure to overcome this barrier could compromise the strength of the present breakout attempt.

What Onchain Data Says About $80K

Glassnode analytics establishes a more defined upper boundary for the near-term advance. The analytics firm’s risk assessment tools highlight substantial resistance clustering between the true market mean around $78,000 and the short-term holder acquisition cost basis approximating $80,000.

“Any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain report.

Their Entity-Adjusted URPD metrics indicate BTC has penetrated a comparatively sparse zone spanning $72,000 to $82,000, featuring diminished supply overhead throughout that corridor. Nevertheless, over 1.3 million BTC were accumulated within the $82,000-$85,000 band, potentially establishing a formidable ceiling.

Market observer Ali Charts highlighted on X that $75,300 functions as a “magnet” for Bitcoin pricing, observing substantial liquidity concentration positioned just beyond $72,000. He suggested a movement toward $75,300 might eliminate approximately $80 million in short positions, potentially initiating a liquidation cascade.

ETF Demand and Macro Backdrop

Regarding institutional participation, Bitcoin Archive documented on X that spot Bitcoin ETF products absorbed 3,350 BTC worth $240 million during a single trading session. These investment vehicles collectively control 721,090 BTC, representing approximately $56.75 billion in aggregate value.

Broader macroeconomic circumstances also turned favorable for Bitcoin’s trajectory this week. Diplomatic progress toward a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement lifted risk-sensitive assets across markets, propelling BTC toward a weekly appreciation approaching 9%—marking its strongest weekly performance since October 2025.

March Consumer Price Index data registered 3.3%, primarily attributable to a substantial 10.9% spike in energy sector costs. Core inflation measurements, however, advanced merely 0.2% month-over-month.

On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, participants currently assign a 26% probability to BTC achieving $80,000 during April, representing a 5% increase over the preceding 24 hours. Meanwhile, the likelihood of reaching $75,000 stands at 76%.

Bitcoin ETF products maintained holdings of 721,090 BTC valued at $56.75 billion as of Friday’s close.

TLDR:

• Japan lifted Rapidus backing to $16.3B as its 2nm AI chip production deadline remains fixed for 2027.
• New funds support Fujitsu-linked design work and strengthen Japan’s domestic AI semiconductor stack.
• Hokkaido foundry progress cleared ministry review, unlocking another ¥631.5B in state support.
• The Rapidus plan ties AI compute growth to supply chain security and sovereign chip production.

Japan has added another ¥631.5 billion to Rapidus, deepening one of the world’s largest state-backed semiconductor bets. 

The new funding lifts total public support to ¥2.6 trillion, or about $16.3 billion, through March 2027. Rapidus remains central to Tokyo’s effort to rebuild domestic 2nm chip production for AI workloads and advanced computing. 

The move also tightens Japan’s broader technology push around supply chain resilience and sovereign semiconductor capacity.

Rapidus AI chip funding accelerates Japan’s 2nm roadmap

According to Bloomberg, the latest capital will support Rapidus’ development work tied to Fujitsu, one of the startup’s earliest targeted customers.

The Economy Ministry said an external committee reviewed the Hokkaido foundry and approved its technical progress before the subsidy release.

Rapidus, launched in 2022, is building out a domestic 2nm manufacturing line with technology cooperation from IBM. The company still targets mass production in 2027.

The project also carries backing from major Japanese corporates, including Toyota, Sony, and SoftBank, reinforcing its strategic importance beyond pure commercial returns.

Tokyo’s funding pace shows how AI infrastructure demand now overlaps with national industrial policy. Advanced nodes increasingly underpin cloud compute, robotics, and high-performance AI inference.

Japan’s semiconductor strategy targets AI supply chain security

The additional subsidy also supports design-related work involving Fujitsu and IBM Japan through NEDO programs.

That expands the project from fabrication into a fuller domestic semiconductor design stack, a critical step for AI chip independence.

Japan’s push comes as governments seek alternatives to concentrated foundry exposure in Taiwan and South Korea. For Tokyo, the Rapidus buildout doubles as economic security policy.

The 2nm target places Rapidus directly in competition with leading global foundries serving AI chip demand, where process leadership determines power efficiency and model performance.

For crypto markets, the development matters because AI data-center expansion increasingly overlaps with GPU supply, mining hardware innovation, and tokenized compute infrastructure.

As Bloomberg reported, the latest review focused on execution milestones at the Hokkaido site, where Tokyo wants proof the 2027 manufacturing deadline remains on track.

TLDR:

• Arizona must pause criminal charges against CFTC-regulated prediction markets after the federal TRO order.
• The CFTC says federal law grants exclusive authority over event contracts and market enforcement.
• Connecticut and Illinois now face similar federal lawsuits over state prediction market restrictions.
• The ruling strengthens legal momentum for federally supervised crypto-linked trading platforms.

A federal judge in Arizona temporarily halted the state’s criminal case against federally regulated prediction markets on Friday. The order came after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked the court to stop Arizona’s enforcement push. 

The ruling preserves the status quo while a broader federal preemption fight moves forward. It also sharpens the legal divide between state gambling rules and federal event contract oversight.

CFTC Arizona TRO Freezes State Prediction Markets Charges

The U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona granted the temporary restraining order on April 10. The court barred Arizona from continuing criminal proceedings against CFTC-regulated designated contract markets.

According to the CFTC filing, the agency moved earlier this week for emergency relief. That motion followed its original complaint seeking to block Arizona from enforcing state law.

The dispute centers on whether federal law preempts state gambling and criminal statutes. The CFTC argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive authority over event contracts.

Chairman Michael S. Selig said the order keeps the legal status quo intact while the court reviews jurisdictional questions. The agency also tied the case to broader concerns around state interference in federally supervised markets.

Arizona became the first state to pursue criminal counts tied to prediction market listings, including contracts offered by Kalshi. The restraining order now pauses that path, at least temporarily.

Federal Prediction Markets Fight Expands Beyond Arizona

The Arizona action forms part of a wider CFTC legal campaign. Last week, the agency filed related complaints against Connecticut and Illinois.

Those cases seek declaratory judgments confirming exclusive federal control over event contracts. The CFTC also wants permanent injunctions blocking states from enforcing overlapping laws.

The timing matters for crypto-linked prediction markets as well. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi increasingly overlap with digital asset users, stablecoin settlement, and onchain market infrastructure.

Recent court decisions have already strengthened the federal side. Earlier this week, an appeals court blocked New Jersey from shutting down Kalshi’s sports markets.

Friday’s Arizona TRO adds another legal marker in the same direction. For traders and exchanges, the immediate effect is procedural, but the broader question remains federal control over fast-growing prediction markets.

TLDR:

• Artemis stablecoin factor posted 83.6% annualized returns with minimal dependence on Bitcoin direction.
• The strategy gained 6.8% monthly across BTC down months, showing resilience during crypto market weakness.
• Mid-cap chains including Polygon and Sei generated 84% of total stablecoin factor returns over five years.
• Stablecoin flows remained Artemis’ least-correlated alpha factor with only 6.1% variance overlap.

Stablecoin flows are emerging as one of crypto’s clearest signals for layer-1 market rotation. 

New research from Artemis shows capital moving through stablecoins consistently preceded stronger relative returns across major chains. The firm’s five-year backtest found the strategy remained largely detached from broad crypto market direction. 

Results also showed the factor produced gains during months when Bitcoin posted losses.

Stablecoin Flows Predict L1 Returns Across Market Cycles

Artemis said its weekly rebalanced long-short factor generated a 1.67 Sharpe ratio over five years. The model delivered an annualized return of 83.6% during the test period.

The same backtest recorded a maximum drawdown of 43.9%. A volatility-targeted overlay lowered drawdown to 31.9% while reducing Sharpe to 1.17.

The data pointed to minimal dependence on Bitcoin’s broader trend. Artemis reported a market beta of -0.03 and an R² of 0.1%.

That structure became more visible during weaker crypto conditions. Across 30 BTC-negative months, the factor returned 6.8% monthly while Bitcoin fell 10.9%.

Artemis also measured annualized alpha at 73.8% after controlling for market exposure. The reported t-statistic reached 3.31 with significance at the 1% level.

The firm noted the strategy’s out-of-sample Sharpe estimate still held at 0.96 after applying a degrees-of-freedom haircut. That kept stablecoin flows among its strongest market-neutral crypto signals.

Mid-Cap Chains Drive Stablecoin Factor Alpha

Most of the gains came from the long side of the book. Artemis said 84% of returns originated from long exposure to chains attracting positive stablecoin inflows.

Mid-cap networks dominated the return profile. Polygon, Mantle, Optimism, BSC, and Sei contributed 84% of total factor returns.

The research also showed limited overlap with Artemis’ broader factor suite. Maximum pairwise correlation across the stack measured only 0.16.

Even after spanning regression against all other factors, the stablecoin signal retained a 2.54 t-statistic. Artemis said just 6.1% of variance overlapped with other models.

Performance also stayed resilient through distinct market phases. The factor returned 262% in 2021, 47% in 2022, and 315% in 2025.

Its only negative year came in 2024 with a 13% decline. Artemis linked that period to stagnant aggregate stablecoin supply growth before recovery resumed.

TLDR:

• Microsoft found the EngageLab SDK bug could expose private wallet data across 30M Android installs globally.
• The flaw abused Android intents to grant hostile apps persistent read and write provider permissions.
• EngageLab fixed the issue in v5.2.1 by changing MTCommonActivity to non-exported status.
• Google Play removed affected wallet apps, while Android added safeguards for already installed versions.

Microsoft has disclosed a severe Android SDK vulnerability that placed more than 30 million crypto wallet installs at risk. The flaw affected EngageLab’s widely used EngageSDK, which many wallet apps used for push messaging features. 

According to Microsoft’s security research, the issue enabled malicious apps on the same device to bypass sandbox protections. Google Play has since removed all identified apps using the vulnerable SDK versions.

EngageLab Android SDK Flaw Exposed Crypto Wallet Attack Surface

Microsoft said the issue centered on an exported Android activity called MTCommonActivity. 

The component was automatically added during manifest merging after developers imported the SDK. Because it appeared post-build, many teams likely missed it during review. That left production APKs open to hidden risk.

The vulnerable flow began when the activity received an external intent. Its onCreate() and onNewIntent() callbacks both routed data into processIntent(). 

That method extracted a URI string and forwarded it deeper into the SDK logic. The chain eventually rebuilt and launched a new intent.

Microsoft’s write-up noted the critical failure happened in a helper method. Instead of returning a safe implicit intent, it returned an explicitly targeted one. That changed Android’s normal resolution path and let hostile apps redirect execution. 

In practice, the vulnerable wallet app launched the malicious payload with its own privileges.

The risk worsened because the SDK used Android’s URI_ALLOW_UNSAFE flag. That allowed persistent read and write URI permissions inside the redirected intent. 

A malicious app could then gain access to non-exported content providers. From there, sensitive wallet files, credentials, and user data became reachable.

Microsoft Patch Timeline and Android Wallet Mitigation Guidance

Microsoft Security Vulnerability Research first identified the flaw in EngageSDK version 4.5.4 in April 2025. It then notified EngageLab under coordinated disclosure rules. 

The Android Security Team also received the report because affected apps were live on Google Play. The fix arrived months later in version 5.2.1 on November 3, 2025.

In the patched release, EngageLab changed the vulnerable activity to non-exported. That single change blocks outside apps from invoking the component directly. Microsoft said it currently has no evidence of in-the-wild exploitation. Still, it urged developers to update immediately.

The report stressed that third-party SDKs can silently expand wallet attack surfaces. 

Crypto apps face elevated stakes because they often store keys, credentials, and financial identifiers. Even minor upstream library flaws can ripple across millions of devices. This case pushed total exposure above 50 million installs when non-wallet apps were included.

Microsoft also said Android added automatic protections for previously installed vulnerable apps. Those mitigations reduce risk while developers migrate to the fixed SDK. 

The company urged teams to inspect merged manifests after every dependency update. That review can catch exported components before release.

XRP (XRP) has been in an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and onchain indicators at levels that previously coincided with macro bottoms.

Data from TradingView reveals that the relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, the most oversold level since October 2025. 

Such low levels in the daily RSI have marked market bottoms for the ratio, ultimately leading to 65% to 345% XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin as seen late 2024 and 2025.

The chart above also shows that the XRP/BTC pair is trading within a long consolidation range, which has previously acted as a strong launching pad for the ratio.

The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this zone was in June 2025. It marked the beginning of a 61% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.

Other instances shown by the yellow bars in the chart reinforce the reliability of this level in marking macro bottoms for XRP/BTC. 

MVRV Z-Score suggests XRP price is bottoming

XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms.

This indicates that most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and signalling potential downside exhaustion. Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022 and 2024 before major rallies.

Note that the last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024 coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rally, with the XRP/USD pair rising 500% to a multi-year high above $3. 

Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is currently at $1.14, coinciding with a 15-month low reached on Feb. 6.

These onchain metrics suggest that XRP is undervalued and may continue the ongoing recovery, potentially rising toward $1.70 or higher. 

XRP price must hold above $1.30 

Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. 

“$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb’26,” trader ChiefraT said in an X post on Friday, adding:

“If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”

The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price.

Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is. 

If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would be in a free-fall toward the measured target of the bear flag at $0.80, or 41% below the current price.

As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control.