Crypto World
Stifel predicts bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.
The race is on among analysts to forecast how far bitcoin could drop, with target prices dropping further every day. The latest to jump in is Stifel, a premier, full-service financial services firm headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old firm predict the bitcoin price could crash to as low as $38,000.
“Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They’re looking at straight line drawn across the low points of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin slumped 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. A line connecting those market bottoms slopes upward and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for the current slide.
Bitcoin peaked over $126,000 in October and has since crashed to nearly $70,000 revisiting levels last seen in November 2024.
The curios case of Benjamin Bitcoin
The Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy tied to the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
In the movie and the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button gets younger as everyone else ages. Bitcoin is like that: A fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC made it stronger — younger in the analysts’ terms — as the dollar weakened from regular money printing.
Now it’s fraying, like the kid version of Button, who looks 10 but acts 80, stuck playing piano for retirees.
Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025, the relationship has reversed. It now falls with the dollar. The Dollar Index has dropped nearly 1% this year, extending last year’s near 10% slide.
“Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and Global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, thus “aging backward” versus fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.
The behavior is compounded by bitcoin closely following Wall Street’s tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, surging on dovish pivots by the Federal Reserve and slumping on hawkish ones. Though the Fed cut interest rates in the final three meetings of 2025, those largely carried a hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in future.
That tone is ominous, the analysts said, especially as technology companies are borrowing more heavily, which has raised their borrowing costs. This could lead to financial tightening, hitting stock valuations and adding to the pain in the bitcoin market.
Crypto World
GlobalStake rolls out bitcoin yield gateway as institutions revisit BTC yield
Institutional attitudes toward bitcoin yield are beginning to shift and there is now renewed interest in BTC rewards after years of skepticism driven by smart-contract risk, leverage, and opaque strategies, GlobalStake co-founder Thomas Chaffee told CoinDesk on Thursday.
Products that allow users to earn a return on their bitcoin holdings often require wrapping BTC into protocols, involving smart contract risk or strategies that don’t scale, so institutions didn’t see “a risk-return profile that made sense,” according to Chaffee.
That reluctance is starting to change, Chaffee said, not because institutions suddenly want more risk, but because the types of strategies available to them have evolved. Rather than protocol-based yield or token incentives, allocators are increasingly gravitating toward fully collateralized, market-neutral approaches that resemble traditional financial strategies already familiar to hedge funds and treasuries, he said.
“The behavior change we’re seeing isn’t institutions chasing yield,” Chaffee said. “It’s institutions finally engaging once the strategies, controls, and infrastructure look like something they can actually deploy capital into at scale.”
The renewed interest comes after years of failed or short-lived attempts to generate yield on bitcoin, many of which unraveled during the 2022 market downturn as prominent lenders froze withdrawals and ultimately collapsed amid liquidity stress, most notably when crypto lending service Celsius Network indefinitely paused withdrawals and transfers citing “‘extreme market conditions’” in mid-2022 and later entered bankruptcy.
Chaffee is not the only one seeing renewed institutional interest in bitcoin yield. “People holding bitcoin, — whether on balance sheet or as investors — increasingly see it as a pot just sitting there,” Richard Green, director of Rootstock Institutional, told CoinDesk recently. “It can’t just sit there doing nothing; it needs to be adding yield.” Green said professional investors now want their digital assets to “work as hard as possible” within their risk mandates.
Chaffee explained that GlobalStake, which provides staking infrastructure across proof-of-stake networks, began hearing the same question repeatedly from clients over the past several years: whether similar institutional-grade yield opportunities existed for bitcoin.
GlobalStake unveiled its Bitcoin Yield Gateway on Thursday, a platform designed to aggregate multiple third-party bitcoin yield strategies behind a single onboarding, compliance, and integration layer.
The co-founder explained the company expects roughly $500 million in bitcoin to be allocated within three months. “We expect the bitcoin to be allocated during the gateway’s first-quarter roll-out period, sourced from a custodial partner based in Canada, demand generated by parties through our partner MG Stover, and our clients, which include family offices, digital asset treasuries (DATs), corporate treasuries, and hedge funds.”
Other firms are approaching the problem from the infrastructure layer. Babylon Labs, for example, is developing systems that allow native bitcoin to be used as non-custodial collateral across financial applications, an effort aimed at expanding BTC’s utility rather than generating yield directly.
Crypto World
Alphabet Beats Expectations as AI Spending Risks Take Center Stage
Editor’s note: Alphabet has reported a strong fourth quarter, beating market expectations on both revenue and earnings, driven by continued resilience in advertising and a sharp acceleration in Google Cloud profitability. While headline growth remains solid, the results have refocused investor attention on the scale of Alphabet’s capital expenditure, particularly its aggressive push into artificial intelligence. With AI adoption expanding rapidly across platforms like Gemini, the key question is no longer demand, but whether and when that usage can be translated into sustainable revenue and returns for shareholders.
Key points
- Alphabet’s Q4 revenue rose 18% year on year, with earnings exceeding expectations.
- Google Cloud revenue jumped 48% to USD 17.7 billion, with operating income more than doubling.
- Advertising revenue remained resilient, growing 14% year on year.
- Capital expenditure reached USD 91.5 billion in the quarter, with 2026 guidance set at USD 175–185 billion.
- Gemini has surpassed 750 million monthly users, highlighting rapid AI adoption.
Why this matters
Alphabet’s results underline a broader shift across Big Tech, where profitability in core businesses is increasingly funding massive AI investment cycles. For investors, the tension lies between long-term strategic positioning and near-term pressure on free cash flow and margins. For the wider digital economy, Alphabet’s spending signals how central AI infrastructure has become to future competitiveness, influencing cloud markets, enterprise adoption, and the pace at which AI moves from experimentation to monetised products.
What to watch next
- How Alphabet manages capital expenditure discipline relative to revenue growth.
- Signals around AI monetisation beyond user growth metrics.
- Cloud margin trends as investment intensity remains elevated.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 05, 2026: Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported a solid fourth quarter, with revenue rising 18% year on year and earnings surpassing market expectations, underpinned by resilient performance across its core businesses.
Google’s advertising segment continued to show strength, with advertising revenue up 14% year on year. Google Cloud was the standout performer, posting revenue growth of 48% to USD 17.7 billion and delivering operating income of USD 5.3 billion—more than double the figure recorded in the same period last year.

Commenting on the results, Zavier Wong, Market Analyst at eToro, said that while Alphabet’s headline numbers were encouraging, investor attention has shifted toward the scale and execution risk of the company’s capital expenditure plans.
During the quarter alone, Alphabet spent USD 91.5 billion and has guided for capital expenditures of USD 175–185 billion in 2026—well above market expectations. From a shareholder perspective, this level of spending materially reduces free cash flow in the near term, with returns on AI investments yet to be proven at scale.
Alphabet is effectively asking investors to be patient and trust that artificial intelligence will evolve into a significant revenue driver.
While the company has little choice but to invest heavily to remain competitive with rivals such as Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI, the timeline for meaningful AI monetisation remains uncertain.
AI adoption is clearly accelerating, with Alphabet’s Gemini platform surpassing 750 million monthly users.
However, the gap between usage and monetisation remains wide, and prolonged delays in converting AI engagement into revenue could weigh on margins and earnings.
Wong added that although AI spending has so far been viewed as necessary and largely justified, Alphabet’s latest guidance represents a material escalation. “This marks one of the most significant risks we’ve seen so far in the current AI investment cycle,” he noted.
Media Contact:
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Crypto World
Will XRP Plunge Below $1 in February? ChatGPT Reassesses After Ripple’s Crash
The last time we asked ChatGPT this question, it was rather dismissive. Now, its answers were significantly less optimistic.
The price moves from precisely a month ago could hardly have anticipated what happened in the following 30 days. XRP, for example, skyrocketed by 30% at the time to $2.40 amid growing ETF inflows.
The subsequent rejection and correction, though, were brutal. After several consecutive leg downs, the culmination, at least for now, transpired earlier today when it plunged below $1.40 and now struggles at $1.35. As such, we decided to revisit a painful question for ChatGPT.
Below $1 Now?
CryptoPotato first asked this question over the weekend when the landscape around Ripple and its native token was not as grim. XRP traded at around $1.60 after its most recent crash, but it seemed as if it had bottomed. Perhaps that’s why most AIs agreed that the chances for a drop beneath $1.00 in February were quite slim at the time.
However, that perceived bottom gave in during the current trading week, as mentioned above. Consequently, we asked ChatGPT whether its view on the matter will change now.
The AI’s short answer was yes, as the probability of such a drop is “meaningfully higher now than it was when XRP was at $1.60-$1.70.” At the time, the token still traded above major structural support, and the broader market hadn’t rolled over so decisively. There was no confirmed breakdown of higher-timeframe levels, and the sentiment wasn’t entirely bearish.
A lot changed in the following several days, though. Momentum has accelerated to the downside as XRP sold off aggressively, “slicing through intermediate supports and failing to hold rebounds.” Additionally, February has just started, and there’s too much time for such a drop to occur if the overall conditions do not improve rapidly.
Dip or Breakdown?
Given the current circumstances, ChatGPT believes that the probability of XRP remaining above $1.00 in February is around 40%. It expects that there will be some consolidation and choppy trading after such heightened volatility and declines.
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However, it also noted that there’s a 35-40% chance of a liquidity sweep to just under $1.00 in the next few weeks. It would be prompted by a fast sell-off, resulting in a panic wick, before a sharp rebound. This scenario, it added now, has become “very real.”
It still dismissed the possibility of a full-on breakdown below $1.00, saying the percentages are around 15-20% now. Although this scenario appears least likely for ChatGPT, it still acknowledged that it had gone from negligible (over the weekend) to quite possible (now).
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Crypto World
XRP Sentiment Beats Bitcoin and Ethereum Despite Price Drop
TLDR
- XRP sentiment beats BTC and ETH even as price drops and sell pressure rises
- Strong XRP optimism clashes with losses and heavy exchange inflows
- XRP mood surges above rivals while on-chain data signals weakness
XRP shows stronger trader sentiment than major rivals even as prices slide across the crypto market. Recent analytics place XRP well above Bitcoin and Ethereum on social mood indicators. Price action and on-chain signals still reflect pressure, and momentum remains uneven.
XRP Sentiment and Market Structure
Santiment data ranks XRP with a Positive/Negative sentiment score far above competing large-cap assets. The reading stands above Ethereum and Bitcoin even after a notable weekly decline. Yet XRP lost more value than both peers during the same period.
The price fell over six percent during the past week, and losses exceeded market averages. However, social platforms continue to reflect higher confidence around XRP than other major tokens. This divergence creates tension between sentiment readings and real trading behavior.
On-chain metrics add pressure because unrealized losses now outweigh profits across many wallets. Glassnode data shows XRP approaching levels associated with capitulation cycles in past downturns. Meanwhile, loss-heavy transactions dominate flows, and panic selling continues to outpace profitable exits.
Bitcoin Holds Preference During Market Weakness
Bitcoin sentiment trails XRP, yet market structure still favors Bitcoin during broad risk-off conditions. The Altcoin Season Index places the market firmly inside a Bitcoin-dominated phase. Traders prefer relative stability, and capital rotates toward larger assets during stress.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently printed one of its lowest readings in months. That score signals strong fear, and it reflects hesitation across the wider crypto environment. Such conditions often appear near short-term bottoms, yet volatility remains elevated.
Market commentators note that weakness has persisted for several weeks across major tokens. Some analysts frame the period as an extended cooling phase after earlier rallies. Even so, Bitcoin continues to anchor liquidity, and it attracts defensive positioning during uncertainty.
Ethereum Tracks Broader Risk Sentiment
Ethereum sentiment sits between Bitcoin and XRP, yet it fails to match XRP’s social strength. Weekly performance shows Ethereum declining close to five percent alongside Bitcoin. This parallel movement confirms Ethereum’s alignment with overall market direction.
Network activity remains steady, yet speculative appetite has cooled across decentralized finance segments. Lower transaction enthusiasm reflects reduced risk tolerance, and capital rotates toward safer positions. Ethereum mirrors that caution because traders scale back aggressive exposure.
Exchange flows across major assets show rising balances that often precede additional selling pressure. XRP recorded significant inflows, and Ethereum followed a similar exchange pattern. Unless buying activity returns, both assets may struggle to establish firm support levels.
Crypto World
Vitalik Buterin Offloads Nearly $6.6M in ETH Amid Price Decline
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has sold a significant amount of his personal ETH holdings over the past several days.
Summary
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has sold nearly 3,000 ETH worth about $6.6 million, according to on-chain data shared by Lookonchain, with sales reported to be ongoing.
- The transactions follow Buterin’s disclosure that he has set aside 16,384 ETH to fund long-term open-source and infrastructure projects, easing concerns of an abrupt sell-off.
According to blockchain analytics shared by Lookonchain, Vitalik has offloaded 2,961.5 Ethereum (ETH), worth approximately $6.6 million, at an average price of around $2,228 per ETH. The selling is reported to be ongoing.
Lookonchain’s alert on X highlighted the on-chain movements from an address publicly associated with Vitalik, noting multiple smaller swap transactions likely routed through decentralized protocols to limit market impact.
This activity has coincided with increased market volatility. Ethereum was trading at $2,075 at press time, down 7.5% over the past 24 hours. ETH price has recently traded lower, and sales by major holders can influence short-term sentiment among traders.
Sales by founders and early contributors tend to draw heightened scrutiny in crypto markets, as they are often viewed as confidence signals rather than routine liquidity events. While the amount sold represents a small fraction of Ethereum’s total supply, on-chain transparency means such moves are immediately visible and widely discussed.
Vitalik Buterin’s ETH sales linked to planned long-term funding
The recent ETH sales are not an isolated or abrupt decision. Last week, Buterin publicly announced that he had set aside 16,384 ETH from his personal holdings, roughly $44–$45 million at current prices, to support long-term initiatives.
In a detailed post on X, Buterin said the allocation is part of his broader vision to fund open-source, secure, and verifiable technology, including infrastructure and public-goods research. The disclosure has led some market participants to view the recent sales as part of a planned funding strategy rather than a sudden sell-off.
Crypto World
Ethereum price slips further as Vitalik Buterin dumps $6.6M ETH
- Ethereum price drops to $2,127 amid market weakness and high volatility.
- Vitalik Buterin sells $6.6M ETH, part of planned funding moves.
- Key support at $2,007, with resistance targets at $2,133 and $2,274.
Ethereum (ETH) is under pressure as the cryptocurrency continues to face a significant pullback.
The price of ETH has dropped to $2,098.91, down 5.6% in the last 24 hours.

This decline is part of a broader downtrend, with Ethereum losing around 28% over the past week and nearly 34% over the past three months.
Trading volume, however, remained elevated at $54.5 billion in the last 24 hours, highlighting strong market activity despite the falling prices.
Vitalik Buterin’s ETH trades
Adding to the market concerns, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has sold millions in ETH.
Reports indicate that wallets linked to Buterin moved roughly 2,961.5 ETH, valued at approximately $6.6 million at the time of sale.
vitalik.eth(@VitalikButerin) is dumping $ETH fast!
Over the past 3 days, Vitalik has sold 2,961.5 $ETH($6.6M) at an average price of $2,228 — and the selling is still ongoing.https://t.co/Q9G1lEsdiP pic.twitter.com/C1vBn5UimJ
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 5, 2026
These transactions attracted attention due to the timing of the Ethereum downturn.
Additional reports highlight a separate $29 million ETH transfer, part of a planned reallocation by Buterin.
The movement included converting ETH to wrapped ETH (wETH) and sending smaller amounts to his Kanro charity, which focuses on biotechnology and infectious disease research.
Analysts stress that these transfers are likely strategic funding moves, not panic selling.
Nevertheless, the market has interpreted these large movements as bearish signals.
ETH price analysis
Ethereum has been under pressure due to broader crypto market weakness.
The 24-hour price range for ETH is currently $2,077.42 to $2,258.21, reflecting volatility and uncertainty.
Ethereum’s market capitalisation stands at $257 billion, with a circulating supply of 120.6 million ETH.
The cryptocurrency is still down 57% from its all-time high of $4,946.05 in August 2025.
Despite the decline, Ethereum remains a major player in the crypto ecosystem, with investors closely monitoring large wallet movements.
Ethereum price forecast
Traders are watching key levels for signs of market direction.
The first support level to monitor is $2,007.
If ETH fails to hold this level, it could drop further to the next support at $1,800.
On the upside, $2,133 is the initial resistance level.
A sustained break above this could push Ethereum toward $2,274, with the third resistance at $2,396.
Analysts like CoinLore suggest that maintaining a price above the $2,007 support is critical for any potential recovery.
Conversely, breaking below this level could accelerate selling pressure and test lower price floors.
In conclusion, Ethereum faces a challenging period as both founder wallet activity and broader market trends weigh on the price.
Traders should pay close attention to the support and resistance levels, as these will likely guide short-term movements in ETH.
Crypto World
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 21 million supply cap won’t help stop the selloff: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
With bitcoin’s bear market raging and the price dropping to the lowest since November 2024, its core pitch, a hard cap of 21 million supply, faces fresh skepticism.
Some observers say that alternative investment vehicles like ETFs, cash-settled futures and options and other services like prime-broker lending have diluted that scarcity appeal. These tools let investors access bitcoin without owning the real thing, creating a “synthetic supply” that floods the market.
“Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce, and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market. This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin,” veteran analyst and writer of The Kendall Report, Bob Kendall, wrote on X.
Gold, silver, oil and equities saw a similar structural change with the debut of alternative investment vehicles, Kendall wrote. In 2023, CoinDesk highlighted how financialization of BTC creates paper claims that mimic abundance in a market defined by raw scarcity.
This is also why investors should tread carefully with onchain metrics like the “percentage of illiquid supply,” because these don’t account for massive “paper supply” from ETFs and futures that dilute the 21 million cap.
In the market, bitcoin lost even more ground, falling below $70,000 for the first time in more than a year.
According to veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt, the selloff has all the hallmarks of campaign selling, or coordinated selling by institutions and large traders rather than retail capitulation. Brandt is not sure at what level or when the decline will halt.
Most observers expect a slide to under $60,000 while firms like Stifel fear a more profound decline to $38,000, given the strengthening correlation with tech stocks, which have also taken a beating lately.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE remains the only consistent hideout. The token is up 11% on the year, while BTC is down nearly 19%. One other interesting token is TRX, which is down just 2%, outperforming the broader market possibly, on the back of dip buying by treasury firm Tron Inc.
In traditional markets, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, the VIX index, is revisiting January highs above 20.00, signaling risk aversion. U.S. Treasury market action suggests expectations for a smaller Fed balance sheet. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Feb. 5: Zilliqa to undergo its hardfork enabling Cancun.
- Macro
- Feb. 5, 2 p.m.: Mexico interest-rate decision (Prev. 7%)
- Feb, 5, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for the period ending Feb. 4
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 5: Bullish (BLSH), pre-market, $0.15
- Feb. 5: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$18.64
- Feb. 5: IREN Limited (IREN), post-market, -$0.18
- Feb. 5: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, -$0.02
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Feb. 5: PancakeSwap to host an ask me anything (AMA) session with Arbitrum.
- Feb. 5: Olympus to host a community call with a live Q&A session.
- Feb. 5: Aster to host an AMA session with its CEO.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- No major launches scheduled.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $71,467.00 (24hrs: -6.52%)
- ETH is up 0.24% at $2,130.50 (24hrs: -5.93%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.68% at 2,077.53 (24hrs: -7.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps at 3.01%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0008% (0.8793% annualized) on Binance

- DXY is up 0.29% at 97.90
- Gold futures are down 1.22% at $4,890.20
- Silver futures are down 7.55% at $78.02
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.88% at 53,818.04
- Hang Seng closed up 0.14% at 26,885.24
- FTSE is down 0.43% at 10,357.59
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.36% at 5,949.05
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.53% at 49,501.30
- S&P 500 closed down 0.51% at 6,882.72
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.51% at 22,904.58
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.56% at 32,571.55
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.89% at 3,653.05
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.8 bps at 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,904.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.14% at 25,033.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.25% at 49,466.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.26% (-0.39%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02981 (1.56%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.02
- Total fees: 3.22 BTC / $240,320
- CME Futures Open Interest: 114,080 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.6 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.77%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily price swings in decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
- HYPE’s price has surged past the trend line that characterizes the decline from September highs.
- The breakout indicates that the path of least resistance is to the higher side and shifts focus to resistance at $50.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $168.62 (-6.14%), -1.51% at $166.07 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $55.05 (-1.98%), -1.25% at $54.36
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.16 (-8.28%), -1.49% at $19.86
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $27.20 (-1.59%), -0.51% at $27.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.28 (-8.51%), -1.81% at $8.13
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (-7.82%), -1.34% at $13.95
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.15 (-8.96%), +0.37% at $16.21
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.22 (-10.04%), -1.47% at $10.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.29 (-11.06%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.70 (+2.20%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.09 (-3.13%), -3.24% at $124.91
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.59 (-13.20%), -6.74% at $0.55
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.08 (-7.57%), -2.54% at $6.90
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.36 (-12.26%), -2.21% at $1.33
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.06 (-7.83%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$544.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.73 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$79.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.94 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.92 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Miners are being squeezed as bitcoin’s $70,000 price fails to cover $87,000 production costs (CoinDesk): Bitcoin is now some 20% below its estimated average production cost, increasing financial pressure across the the crypto mining industry.
Precious metals, oil slide as global tensions ease; copper down (Reuters): Prices of commodities from silver and gold to crude oil and copper dived on Thursday as global tensions eased after talks between China and the U.S., which is also set to sit down with Iran.
Trillion-dollar tech wipeout ensnares all stocks in AI’s path (Bloomberg): Hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off the value of stocks, bonds and loans of companies big and small across Silicon Valley, with software stocks at the epicenter.
Crypto World
Private credit meltdown fears: Why BondBloxx isn’t worried

BondBloxx ETFs has been making a big bet in private credit.
Even with Wall Street fears of an impending meltdown in the space, the firm’s co-founder and chief operating officer is confident private credit is a sensible way for investors to pursue income.
“What you’re seeing in the press… maybe a fund of one manager and one manager’s assets [are] being marked down, and that’s going to happen. There may be a concentration in that manager’s approach or in the loans and the companies that are in their fund,” Joanna Gallegos told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Gallegos, who’s the former head of global ETF strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, contends BondBloxx’s approach to private credit protects investors because it’s designed to give “immense diversification.”
“Because of the way it’s [BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM)] structured, you’re getting exposure to almost over 7,000 of those loans,” she said. “It gives you a pure play to private credit because 80% of the exposure in that product is private credit. And I think there’s been a lot of discussion about other vehicles and ETFs that there may not be 100% private credit.”
The firm launched its BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF in December 2024 — promoting it as the first-ever ETF that offers investors direct exposure to private credit.
As of Wednesday’s market close, FactSet reports the fund is up 7% since its inception and up 2% over the past three months.
‘There’s good reason to look at private credit’
Gallegos finds the yield generated by private credit is still attractive.
“That’s a good reason to look at private credit. The reality is that more companies are private than they used to,” said Gallegos, who added that the fund spreads exposure across many loans and managers rather than relying on a single manager or a concentrated pool of credits.
In the same “ETF Edge” interview, Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn said he didn’t see broad stress across credit markets right now, too.
“Credit spreads are still on multi-decades lows, whether it’s high yield or investment grade,” the firm’s senior ETF and technical strategist said.
However, a “credit event” is on his watch list.
“If any of this private credit in the illiquid space starts to leak into other areas of the financial system… that would be my kind of a glaring sign of risk I think that’s out there. Quite frankly, everything else so far seems all right,” Sohn said. “Banks are still okay. The consumer seems all right. But I think it would be some sort of credit then out of left field that leaks into other areas that we’re not maybe focused on.”
Crypto World
Bitcoin ETFs Slide Further as Daily Outflows Hit $545M
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exchange-traded funds extended losses on Wednesday as the spot price hovered near the $70,000 threshold, underscoring ongoing headwinds across digital-asset markets. SoSoValue data show spot Bitcoin ETFs posting $545 million in outflows for the session, contributing to a negative weekly cadence of about $255 million. Year-to-date inflows have totaled roughly $3.5 billion, yet redemptions in the same period reached $5.4 billion, leaving net outflows of about $1.8 billion and total assets under management near $93.5 billion.
Key takeaways
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $545 million in daily outflows, extending a weekly net drain of approximately $255 million.
- Year-to-date, cumulative inflows stand around $3.5 billion, but redemptions total about $5.4 billion, yielding a net negative of roughly $1.8 billion.
- Total assets under management for spot BTC ETFs sit near $93.5 billion.
- Broader market breadth has deteriorated, with the overall crypto market capitalization down about 20% year-to-date to around $2.5 trillion per CoinGecko.
- Investor behavior appears cautiously resolute: about 6% of ETF assets have exited, while a heavyweight ETF issuer’s exposure has retreated from a peak near $100 billion to around $60 billion.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, $IBIT
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Negative. The ongoing outflows from BTC ETFs and a broader market pullback contributed to downside pressure, with the crypto market cap retreating roughly 20% YTD.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Market participants have, on balance, remained invested through the current downturn, suggesting a cautious, patient stance rather than aggressive repositioning.
Market context: ETF flows continue to reflect a liquidity-constrained environment and a shift in risk appetite as macro signals and regulatory developments influence investor decisions in crypto assets.
Why it matters
The ongoing pressure on Bitcoin ETFs matters because these products are among the most liquid conduits to gain regulated exposure to digital assets. The persistent outflows indicate a dissonance between investor expectations for ETF-driven liquidity and the prevailing risk-off sentiment that has cooled appetite for risk assets. While inflows remain in positive territory for the year, the magnitude of redemptions underscores the fragility of demand in a challenging macro backdrop.
Industry analysts have observed a paradox: despite the outflows, the cohort of ETF holders has largely stayed put. In comments cited by market watchers, some analysts described the BTC ETF ecosystem as resilient in the face of volatility, with a relatively small portion of assets exiting funds. The dynamics at play point to a nuanced landscape where big-name issuers, like the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), have seen their asset bases retreat from peak levels yet still maintain a substantial footprint. This juxtaposition—scarcity of new inflows against a backdrop of stubborn existing holders—speaks to the complexity of crypto-asset exposure via regulated wrappers in a volatile market regime.
Altcoin funds, meanwhile, delivered a mixed signal. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETFs registered meaningful outflows, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) funds drew modest inflows and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) saw small withdrawals. These patterns illustrate that capital is not uniformly fleeing all digital-asset exposures; rather, it is rebalancing within the broader lattice of crypto instruments as traders reassess risk, duration, and yield prospects in a high-stakes environment.
As discussed by several market observers, the sector’s longer-term trajectory will hinge on how regulatory and policy signaling evolves, and whether large institutions can sustain long-hold strategies through drawdowns. The cumulative inflows for spot BTC ETFs—neatly summarized at around $54.8 billion since inception, and just a shade below the prior peak of $62.9 billion—reflect a tempered but persistent demand for regulated crypto exposure despite periodic bouts of stress. The narrative remains one of guarded optimism: potential upside for ETF products if risk sentiment improves, tempered by the reality that macro headwinds and competition from non-regulated venues continue to pressure flows.
In context, Bitcoin’s price dynamics remain a critical influence on ETF behavior. If the market sustains a move back toward prior highs, ETF inflows could accelerate, reinforcing a favorable feedback loop for price discovery. However, negative signals—whether from macro data, regulatory developments, or a renewed round of capital outflows—could precipitate further reductions in new fund subscriptions and redemptions from existing positions. Investors and issuers alike will be watching closely how the balance between demand for regulated crypto exposure and risk-off sentiment evolves in the weeks ahead.
What to watch next
- Upcoming spot BTC ETF flow data releases to gauge whether the current outflows persist or reverse in the next reporting window.
- Regulatory and product announcements from major issuers (including IBIT) that could affect investor demand for exchange-traded crypto exposure.
- BTC price action relative to the $70,000 level and its potential impact on ETF inflows and selling pressure.
- Altcoin ETF flow trajectories, with attention to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana funds, over the near term.
- Analysts’ updates on market breadth and investor behavior in the wake of ongoing macro volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Sources & verification
- SoSoValue data on spot BTC ETF flows for the cited session and weekly period.
- CoinGecko metrics documenting the approximate 20% year-to-date decline in total crypto market capitalization to around $2.5 trillion.
- Public comments from James Seyffart on ETF inflows versus peak inflows in the BTC ETF space.
- Eric Balchunas commentary on investor behavior within BTC ETFs and the IBIT asset trajectory.
Bitcoin ETFs in retreat as spot flows remain negative and risk appetite dampens
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exchange-traded funds continue to retreat as the spot market trades near pivotal levels, highlighting how a risk-off stance is shaping fund flows. The latest data show spot BTC ETFs registering a $545 million outflow on a single session, intensifying a broader weekly draw of roughly $255 million. While year-to-date inflows have totaled around $3.5 billion, redemptions have climbed to about $5.4 billion, resulting in a net negative of nearly $1.8 billion and an assets-under-management tally around $93.5 billion. This backdrop mirrors a wider contraction in crypto liquidity, with the total market cap down about 20% year-to-date to roughly $2.5 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
Among the ETF universe, investor behavior has shown a blend of caution and resolve. The data imply that a small minority has exited positions—approximate turnover sits near 6% of total assets—while the bulk of holders remain invested despite repeated bouts of price volatility. The dynamics at play are further illustrated by the performance of the iShares Bitcoin ETF (EXCHANGE: IBIT), which has seen its assets retreat from a recent peak close to $100 billion to around $60 billion as risk sentiment waxes and wanes. As one Bloomberg analyst noted, the scale of inflows during the peak period was substantial, and the current retreat does not erase the earlier strength of demand for regulated exposure.
Against this backdrop, altcoin funds have shown a mixed complexion. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETFs posted outflows of roughly $79.5 million, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) funds attracted about $4.8 million in net inflows. Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) ETFs also faced outflows, totaling around $6.7 million. The divergence within the altcoin cohort underscores the sophisticated nature of investor preference in a risk-off environment, where different narratives and fundamental updates across projects can drive uneven demand for ETF wrappers and direct exposure alike.
For investors and market watchers, the BTC ETF story remains a barometer of wider liquidity conditions and the pace at which regulated vehicles can deliver accessible exposure to a volatile asset class. The narrative will likely hinge on whether macro conditions improve enough to spur new inflows, or whether the market’s risk-off tilt persists, dampening appetite for crypto risk assets across the board.
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Crypto World
Tron extends USDT lead over Ethereum as TRX price decouples from network boom
Tron tightens its USDT lead over Ethereum as network activity and BTC reserve plans climb, yet TRX price lags, retracing into a multi‑month consolidation range.
Summary
- Tron’s share of USDT supply has grown, with on-chain data showing rising active addresses and record weekly transaction volumes tied to stablecoin usage.
- Justin Sun has signaled plans to increase Tron’s Bitcoin reserves, echoing Binance’s $1 billion SAFU conversion toward BTC as both networks tilt their treasuries to Bitcoin.
- Despite stronger fundamentals, TRX has retraced recent gains and is back in its late‑2025 consolidation zone, with price action tracking broader market conditions more than network growth.
The Tron network has surpassed Ethereum in stablecoin supply, marking a shift in the competitive landscape between the two blockchain platforms that have competed for USDT dominance in recent years.
USDT stablecoin supply on Tron has risen significantly, giving it a larger share of the USDT supply than Ethereum, according to data from DeFiLlama.
The increased USDT liquidity on Tron reflects the network’s faster and cheaper transaction capabilities compared to competing platforms. The growth corresponds with key network performance metrics, according to blockchain analytics data.
Tron on the radar
Address activity on the Tron network has surged alongside the rise in USDT supply. Active addresses maintained an upward trend over recent years and accelerated in recent weeks, with weekly active addresses rising sharply during this period, according to DeFiLlama data.
Transaction activity has followed a similar pattern. The Tron network recently recorded its highest weekly transaction volume, while the network’s stablecoin count reached a new historic high during the same week. Industry analysts have attributed the robust network growth to stablecoin transaction activity.
Tron has been accumulating Bitcoin reserves and may execute another large purchase, according to public statements. Binance recently announced plans to convert part of its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) into Bitcoin. Tron founder Justin Sun has indicated plans for a similar move, though the exact amount of Bitcoin currently held by Tron remains undisclosed.
Despite positive network activity and Bitcoin acquisition plans, Tron’s native cryptocurrency TRX has not experienced corresponding price gains. TRX began January with an upward price movement but has since retraced most gains, experiencing a decline over recent weeks.
The TRX token was not in oversold territory despite the price drop, according to technical indicators. The retracement brought the token back to the consolidation zone where it traded between November and December of the previous year. The TRX price movement has shown limited correlation with Tron network activity, with the cryptocurrency’s performance appearing to track broader market conditions rather than network-specific demand.
Long-term price charts indicate a natural retracement following a parabolic price movement from November 2022 to August 2025, according to market data.
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