Immigration Is A Major Concern In Mayoral Contests Eyed By Reform, New Poll Shows

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Stonehaven research shared exclusively with PoliticsHome found that the share of people in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire who see immigration as a ‘top issue’ is significantly higher than the national average (37 per cent).

Almost half (48 per cent) of people surveyed in Greater Lincolnshire named immigration as a top issue, while 44 of respondents in Hull and East Yorkshire said the same.

The results suggest that immigration is more likely to be seen as a major concern in these two new mayoral contests than in the 12 pre-existing mayoral areas.

The findings will likely reinforce expectations that Nigel Farage’s Reform will pose a significant threat to Labour and the Tories when these two new mayoral contests go to the polls for the first time at the 5 May local elections.

The right-wing party is expected to go head-to-head with Labour in Greater Lincolnshire where former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is its candidate, as well as push both Labour and the Conservatives close in Hull & East Yorkshire.

Stonehaven carried out the constituency-level MRP polling of 6,500 people in November and December and then grouped the findings to fit the combined authority areas. The consultancy had surveyed around 17,000 people since the 4 July General Election.

Up to now immigration — in particular small boat crossings and illegal migration — has been Reform’s biggest talking point. 

It helped the right-wing party do significant damage to the Conservatives at the July General Election and at the same time return five of its own MPs to the House of Commons.

The May local elections will be the first proper opportunity for Farage to demonstrate whether his party can expand its electoral threat by eating into support for Keir Starmer’s Labour.  

Luke Betham, Head of Data Science at Stonehaven, said: “Our research shows that Reform UK has a real chance of taking another political scalp in the upcoming mayoral elections. 

“Voters in the newly created Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire combined authorities have placed immigration at the top of their agenda, giving Farage’s party a significant opportunity.”

He added that if Reform does win in one of the contests, “it would mark the first time a combined authority has elected a non-Labour or Conservative mayor, proving that Farage’s party is a serious force on the national stage.”

Britain Elects’ Ben Walker told PoliticsHome Reform “could absolutely score some big wins” at the local elections as many of the seats up for grabs are in rural parts of the country where support for the right-wing party tends to be stronger.

Kim McGuinness, Labour Mayor of the North East, said her party needs to be “really clear” with voters about “the changes the Government is making” to tackle illegal migration.

“What we need is to be really pragmatic about immigration and pragmatic about the way that we talk about it, and to come up with proper, real, practical solutions, rather than three world slogans and the politics of division and hatred,” she said.

As part of its research, Stonehaven also asked people in these mayoral areas how they would vote at a general election.

In Greater Lincolnshire, it found the Tories on 32.8 per cent, closely followed by Reform on 27.7 per cent. Labour polled at 24.4 per cent.

In Hull and East Yorkshire, Starmer’s Labour came top with 30 per cent of the vote, with Reform very close behind at 29.5 per cent, while the Conservatives were on 25.8 per cent.

In Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, where Labour mayor Dr Nik Johnson is hoping to be re-elected in May, Stonehaven found the Tories leading Labour by 28.2 per cent to 23.7 per cent. Former Conservative MP Paul Bristow is running as the Tory candidate in this mayoral contest.

Concern about immigration is significantly lower in this mayoral battleground, however, with 35 per cent of people in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough saying it is a top issue.

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