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Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election’s ‘October surprise’

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For the past year, the Biden administration has struggled to prevent a regional war in the Middle East, fearing that it might draw in the US or wreak havoc on the world economy.

This policy is now very close to failing. For the second time this year, Iran has fired missiles at Israel, and the US has helped Israel to shoot the missiles down. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has promised that there will be “severe consequences” for Iran and has said that the US will “work with Israel” to ensure that this is the case. That sounds ominously like a threat of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran.

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In April, Israel was persuaded to limit its retaliation to a level that the Iranians could tacitly accept — and the tit-for-tat exchange stopped. This time around, it seems much less likely that the exchange of blows between Iran and Israel can be prevented from escalating further.

Israel has just launched a second front in its war with its regional enemies, with a ground incursion into Lebanon that follows up on the devastating blows it has already landed on Hizbollah, the Iran-backed militant force. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu clearly feels that it has its enemies on the run. It may want to hit back hard at Iran, hoping to do lasting damage to the Islamic republic and perhaps to its feared nuclear programme.

The Iranians will certainly have understood the risks of Israeli counter-escalation, and some in Tehran may fear that they are walking into a trap by once again firing missiles at Israel. But failing to respond to Israel’s attacks on Hizbollah — which follow the assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, in Tehran — will also have seemed like a serious risk for Iran.

The grim logic of war and deterrence suggests that a power that is unable to defend its friends, or to respond to attacks in its capital, looks weak. And weakness potentially invites further attacks, while also leading to a loss of influence and prestige.

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Behind its tough talk, the White House may still be urging Israel to calibrate its response and to not hit back so hard that Iran feels compelled to up the ante again. After pulling out of Afghanistan, the Biden administration has no desire to be dragged into another conflict in the Middle East.

With Israeli forces already fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the Netanyahu government may have its own reasons not to escalate the direct conflict with Iran right now. But if the Israelis decide that they do want to take much tougher direct action, they have already shown that they are perfectly happy to ignore the Biden administration’s calls for restraint. The White House may hope that by working with Israel, it can exercise more influence over the strength and nature of the Israeli response.

The US had been urging Israel for many months not to launch an assault on Hizbollah. After Israel opened hostilities last month, the Biden administration joined the UK, France and others in urging an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It was ignored once again. 

The Netanyahu government’s readiness simply to ignore the wishes of its closest ally and security guarantor stems from a paradox at the heart of US policy. The Biden administration can and does urge Israel to show restraint in Gaza and Lebanon. But it will also always protect Israel from the consequences of escalation, citing the overarching commitment to defend it from Iran and its other regional enemies.

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As a result, the Israeli government understands that defying the Biden administration is almost risk-free. Indeed, there could even be some benefits if it draws the US into deploying its military might against Iran.

The chances of America refusing to back Israel in a crisis — always slight — are further minimised by the fact that the US presidential election is little more than a month away. Kamala Harris has flirted with taking a tougher line with Netanyahu on Gaza. But she will also want to appear tough and fully supportive of Israel at a time of danger. And she cannot risk appearing to be soft on Iran, with which the US has its own long history of antagonism, dating back to the hostage crisis of 1979-81.

Nonetheless, the current perilous situation could be bad news for Harris. Donald Trump likes to claim that the world was at peace during his presidency, but that the “weakness” of the Biden administration has led to wars in Europe and the Middle East. This latest escalation suits his narrative perfectly.

Every time there is a presidential election in America, there is speculation about a possible “October surprise” that upturns the race with only weeks left before the vote. Israel and Iran have just delivered this election’s October surprise, and Trump may be the beneficiary.

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gideon.rachman@ft.com

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Louvre Hotels Group to offer 1,000 more keys in Saudi Arabia by 2027

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Louvre Hotels Group to offer 1,000 more keys in Saudi Arabia by 2027

Louvre Hotels Group has announced plans to launch 1,000 additional keys in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia within the next three years

Continue reading Louvre Hotels Group to offer 1,000 more keys in Saudi Arabia by 2027 at Business Traveller.

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Comparing tax to Mafia ‘pizzu’ was inappropriate

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

The comparison that your FT Money columnist Moira O’Neill draws between the Mafia “pizzu” and tax is inappropriate and wrong (“Should you ‘fill to the max’ on tax-free allowances?”, Opinion, FT Money, FT Weekend, September 21).

Pizzu is an illegal payment extracted by organised crime groups, through threats of violence or intimidation, in exchange for “protection”. Taxation, on the other hand, is at the core of the social contract between the state and its citizens and is based on governance and accountability.

In modern democracies, taxes are legally enforced contributions to fund public services such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, defence and social welfare. Transparency and accountability mechanisms exist to prevent misuse of tax revenues.

The level of taxation — and public expenditure — depends on voters’ preferences, and tax rates and spending are typically decided by elected representatives. Citizens can vote, engage in protest, or influence policy to change how taxes are levied or spent.

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Some societies may prefer, for instance, to restrict the range of public services in exchange for a lower level of taxation and let services such as healthcare to be mostly privately funded.

Modern democracies began with the citizens’ demand to have a say on how much they pay and to no longer be burdened with taxes decided elsewhere — no more taxation without representation.

Taxes are often perceived as unfair, but drawing a comparison with the pizzu confuses purposes, context and legality — or lack of it. Above all, it overlooks the fundamental role of democracy, governance, law, and the provision of public services and collective goods that taxes support.

Paola Subacchi
Professor of Economics, Sciences Po, Paris and Essential Economics, London W1, UK

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Letter: Politicians are ‘Fachidioten’

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Just a small feedback on Janan Ganesh’s piece on “The end of the popular politician” (Opinion, September 26).

It may well be that a spoilt vote reflects a general dissatisfaction with politicians. But I would rather say that voters can’t be fooled so easily any more. The requirements of a politician have not changed much for at least half a century. Almost by definition, politicians of western democracies are amateurs. Even worse, politicians refuse to raise the standards of their profession.

Singapore is a pretty good example of how professional politicians can do a much better job than their western “amateur” counterparts. Or let me use a word from my German mother tongue — Fachidiot — which means a one-track specialised idiot, who is an expert in his or her field but takes a blinkered approach to multi-faceted problems, what you might call an expert idiot. That describes our politicians.

What the west needs is minimum standards for politicians, which are generally accepted for the profession. When an employer searches for a medical doctor, why would we look for qualifications fitting a carpenter?

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We demand licences for drivers, lawyers, doctors and many other professions. By contrast, any idiot can be a politician!

Matthias Abold
Chumphon, Thailand

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Critique of Streeting’s diagnosis for the NHS

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Wes Streeting’s comments to the FT Weekend Festival on suggested remedies for our ailing and failing NHS (Report, September 7) made good sense yet seemed short-sighted.

Apart from an essential question of how will his mooted expansion and tightening of services be funded and supported, there seem serious limitations in Streeting’s understanding of many aspects of healthcare. In brief, the health secretary’s suggestions may be effective for procedurally curable conditions (treatment-based), but are often unsuitable for those many problems that cannot be decisively fixed (the care-based).

Streeting (and many other health pundits) are correct in their championing of more and better technologies to deliver speedier and better impersonal treatments.

Yet, in fact, the bulk of NHS consultations are not of this kind. Most treatments are “people-work”, where any science or technology is skilfully subordinated to attuned understandings of personal experience, relationship and meaning. This is pastoral healthcare.

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The kind of technologies that are now so indispensable to — say — the highly efficient tracing, tracking and treating certain malignant diseases, are often less than helpful in dealing — say — with a rebelliously recalcitrant and chaotic adolescent diabetic, or an embitteredly grieving widow who turns to drink.

For all its inconsistencies and technological primitiveness, our erstwhile NHS was often able to provide pastoral healthcare far more readily.

This was due largely to a system that encouraged personal bonds and understandings — for example, small local GP practices with personal lists, hospital consultant-led firms with designated wards and support teams.

We cannot now, of course, exactly replicate those times, but we can re-view them, take and replant their more vital “cuttings” into our now humanly impoverished and troubled NHS.

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Will this new government have the wisdom and courage to do this?

Dr David Zigmond
Executive Committee, Doctors for the NHS, London N8, UK

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Rove Hotels and IRTH Group to launch Rove Home branded residences in Dubai Marina

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Rove Hotels and IRTH Group to launch Rove Home branded residences in Dubai Marina

Rove Hotels has announced that it will be collaborating with IRTH Group to launch the Rove Home Dubai Marina, a new residential development in the heart of Dubai Marina. Marking an exciting new chapter for the dynamic UAE-based brand, the new development promises a unique style and innovative spirit for a fresh, vibrant take on modern living.

Rove Home Dubai Marina will be offering buyers the chance to secure an off-plan property in this highly coveted neighbourhood.

Continue reading Rove Hotels and IRTH Group to launch Rove Home branded residences in Dubai Marina at Business Traveller.

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Mexico’s first female president takes power with pledge of continuity

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Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, took office promising continuity with her predecessor and hitting back at critics who fear the country is sliding away from multi-party democracy.

Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor, has sweeping powers to change the constitution after a landslide election victory but will be limited by the political confines laid out by her mentor, outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

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In a firm speech to lawmakers, Latin American presidents and US first lady Jill Biden on Tuesday, Sheinbaum praised López Obrador and pledged to maintain his social policies while emphasising women’s rights, green energy and new passenger railways.

She also hit back at criticism that her government would continue López Obrador’s erosion of democratic norms.

“Anyone who says there will be authoritarianism is lying,” she said in the lower house after her swearing-in. “We are democrats, human rights will be respected.”

Sheinbaum takes office as swaths of the country are living under the control of organised crime, an already-weak economy is slowing and Mexicans are grappling with a sharp deterioration in public healthcare.

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The ruling party Morena has consolidated power over the past six years, including holding two-thirds of governorships and congress, while López Obrador has weakened checks on presidential power.

Sheinbaum’s technical style and background as an energy academic have led some to believe she will make a break from her populist predecessor. But her inaugural address signalled continuity, which could trouble critics and opposition figures who fear she will maintain López Obrador’s policies to defund, attack and eliminate Mexico’s independent institutions.

“There’s nothing that indicates a change in . . . how power is exercised,” said opposition lawmaker Claudia Ruiz Massieu. “The coming years are going to be very complicated for those of us who don’t agree with the regime.”

The country’s polarised politics were evident on the streets of the capital on Tuesday. Hundreds marched against a controversial overhaul of the judiciary, while tens of thousands of Morena supporters, buoyed by the party’s social programmes and rising wages, filled the main square, waving flags and chanting for the outgoing leader.

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“This is history in the making . . . as women, we’re counting on her to give us all her support, just like the president [López Obrador] did,” said Graciela Hernández, 62, who came out to support Sheinbaum.

Sheinbaum is a longtime activist who grew up in leftwing intellectual circles. On Monday, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro told media she used to be a member of M-19, the urban leftist-nationalist guerrilla group to which he also belonged. A spokesperson for Sheinbaum did not respond to a request for comment.

The incoming president inherits Mexico’s largest budget deficit since the 1980s. Sheinbaum has said she would be fiscally responsible and maintain a “reasonable” debt level but has also promised new social programmes and significant public infrastructure investment.

“The fiscal situation is not what she painted, there will have to be significant cuts,” said Luis Rubio, chair of the independent México Evalúa think-tank. “She’ll have to move away from [López Obrador], and I think that’s the moment in which politically it’s going to be very complicated.”

Sheinbaum has also promised to present a national energy plan in the coming days with ambitious renewables targets, though how she will reconcile those goals with her commitment to state dominance of the sector is unclear.

Lacking López Obrador’s charisma and facing a mounting list of challenges, Sheinbaum will not have long to flesh out her plans.

“Her strengths are not in politicking or narrative building, so she’ll have to deliver,” Rubio said.

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