Following Labour’s general election victory in July 2024, the party has been clear it wishes to kickstart economic growth, but to do that it “needs to encourage more investment”.

This is what Parmenion chief investment officer Peter Dalgliesh told Money Marketing while discussing the upcoming Budget on 30 October.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves background as a supply side economist “means she is always focused on investment”, Dalgliesh said.

Reeves used to be an economist at the Bank of England, where she worked on the central bank’s Japan desk. She also worked for HBOS, a UK banking and insurance company owned by Lloyds Banking Group.

However, in regards to the rumours circulating Labour could raise money through extra wealth taxes, Dalgliesh added: “If you put taxes up on those who can afford to invest, you will score an own goal.”

He is still optimistic looking forward though, due to wage growth and rising property prices.

Dalgliesh also feels the UK is a “pretty resilient country” irrespective of what is announced by Reeves on 30 October.

As a whole, from an investment point of view, he feels the UK is an “interesting market at this point in the cycle”.

He has seen in recent surveys that financial advisers want to increase exposure to the UK. Additionally, the Bank of America releases a quarterly survey that showed institutional managers wish to do the same.

Dalgliesh also touched on the ongoing pensions review launched by Labour, which he hopes will result in the minimum of auto-enrolment to be raised and that UK pension funds will start to invest in “our own market”, the UK.

He said France, Italy, US and Australia all do this, but the UK is an “anomaly”.

Still, Dalgliesh is “sympathetic” for the new government as he believes everyone got a “bit ahead of themselves in our anticipation” following the general election result.

“Let’s see what happens when they take their time.”

Good morning and welcome to your Morning Briefing for Wednesday 2 October 2024. To get this in your inbox every morning click here.

Labour wants growth but ‘you need investment’

Following Labour’s general election victory in July 2024, the party has been clear it wishes to kickstart economic growth, but to do that it “needs to encourage more investment”.

This is what Parmenion chief investment officer Peter Dalgliesh told Money Marketing while discussing the upcoming Budget on 30 October.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves background as a supply side economist “means she is always focused on investment”, Dalgliesh said. However, in regards to the rumours circulating Labour could raise money through extra wealth taxes, Dalgliesh added: “If you put taxes up on those who can afford to invest, you will score an own goal.”

Advice firms making dangerous mistakes with AI choices

There’s no escaping artificial intelligence (AI), with many new solutions on the market for advisers, writes TCC Group and Recordsure chief executive Joe Norburn.

But among the myriad messages, it’s rarely clear what type of AI is being promoted and whether it is suited to your needs.

There are two main types of AI today (Predictive AI and Generative AI) and it’s important to distinguish which one is being offered to you.

Before you commit, you must really consider what you want the tech to do for you.

In Conversation With… Jo Wall: From corporate climb to joyful wealth

Join Kimberley Dondo in conversation with Jo Wall, founder of Joyful Wealth, who shares her inspiring journey to becoming a successful entrepreneur with the help of the Verve Foundation’s incubator programme. Discover how Wall launched her own firm and how she believes financial advice and coaching can empower clients.

Quote Of The Day

A subdued tone has hit trading as markets brace for further repercussions from the Middle East crisis. The FTSE 100 has headed higher in early trade, partly because of its defensive nature, helped by strength in energy stocks as oil prices continue their march upwards

– Hargreaves Lansdown head of money and markets Susannah Streeter comments on the mood in markets amid fresh geo-political risk after Iran’s strikes on Israel

In Other News

Amundi has launched the Quantitative Global Absolute Return Bond fund. The fund invests across a range of global fixed-income segments using a quantitative absolute return approach, “seeking to achieve a positive return in all types of market conditions over the recommended holding period”.

The fund also aims to achieve an ESG score greater than its investment universe and is classified an Article 8 Fund under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR).

The fund is managed by Lionel Pigeon, portfolio manager within Amundi’s global fixed-income team.

The investment process is based on a quantitative multi-factor approach, investing in all the asset classes available in the Fixed Income universe.

Amundi said: “In the current climate marked by higher inflation and rising rates, investors are increasingly drawn to fixed-income ‘absolute return’ strategies. Rising rates negatively impact bond-market returns and create distinct opportunities for long/short, absolute return strategies.

“The fund aims to generate positive risk-adjusted returns above the cash rate, independently of broader market movements, making it an attractive proposition for investors seeking to mitigate risks and/or complement a fixed-income benchmarked portfolio.”

The fund invests mainly in highly liquid derivatives to implement the factors, while the cash is invested in money market instruments and high-quality short-term bonds, resulting in a lower liquidity risk.

US dockworkers strike, halting half the nation’s ocean shipping (Reuters)

Ben Wallace to join defence-focused investment firm (Financial Times)

Vance softens tone as Walz seizes on election claims at debate (Bloomberg)

Did You See?

Brooks Macdonald’s new group chief executive Andrea Montague officially began her role yesterday (1 October).

The company confirmed in a short statement that Montague has received regulatory approval.

She was appointed in June following the retirement of CEO Andrew Shepherd after 22 years with the firm.

Montague joined the company as a chief finance officer in 2023. Previous roles include group chief risk officer at Aviva and senior roles at Standard Life and Royal London Group.

Montague, who grew up in Belfast, studied languages at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh. Her formative years were spent at PwC, where she qualified as a chartered accountant.

Momodou Musa Touray has the full story.

THOUSANDS of households on low incomes could be missing out on a £150 one-off payment to help with energy bills this winter.

The Park Homes Warm Home Discount is available to families who live in mobile homes.

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Applications for the scheme have opened today, Wednesday, October 2, with the fund operated by charity group Charis Grants.

It differs from the Warm Home Discount for households in England and Wales who automatically get a £150 boost into their account if they are on certain benefits.

This scheme has been specifically made for those living in parked homes who miss out on help by not having a direct account with their energy supplier.

A parked home is a type of mobile that is lived in all year round.

Residents are often elderly, retired and have restricted incomes.

Unlike the Warm Home Discount, which is paid for by the government, this scheme is funded by Ofgem and energy suppliers.

Jonathan Hunt, director of the charity, said that people living in park homes have historically missed out on “much-needed financial support”.

“The importance of the scheme to these households cannot be overstated.”

It comes as the number of people supported by the Park Homes Warm Home discount grew to more than 5,000 last year,

Charis hopes that the number of households to benefit could reach more than 6,000 this year.

Who qualifies for a payment?

You could be eligible for the scheme if you or someone in your household receives one of the following:

• Pension Credit
• Income-related Employment & Support Allowance
• Income-based Job Seekers Allowance
• Income Support
• Universal Credit showing an earned income between £0 and £1,665 a month
• Child Tax Credit by virtue of an award based on an annual income not exceeding £19,978
• Working Tax Credit by virtue of an award based on an annual income not exceeding £19,978
• Housing Benefit (or Housing element if receiving Universal Credit)

You will also receive the cash if you are not receiving any of these benefits but the total gross annual income across everyone living in your house is below £19,978.

How do I apply and how will I be paid?

Only people living in mobile homes can apply for the Park Homes Warm Home Discount.

You have to apply on the Charis Grants website.

You’ll need to provide details of the benefits you receive, plus income details for other members of your household.

You must also have a valid email address so you can receive the decision outcome and any requests for information.

To receive the cash you will also need to share your bank account details, as shown on either your bank card, bank passbook or account statement.

If you are struggling with your application you can call the Charis support team on 01733 797543. 

If your application is successful, a payment of £150 will be made directly into your bank or building society account by March 31, 2025.

Applications open today October, 2 and the scheme will close by the end of March.

What other support is out there?

A number of energy firms have support for struggling customers.

Many gas and energy suppliers offer grants and schemes for customers who are struggling.

For example, British Gas has a fund open to pre-payment meter and credit customers who have found themselves in debt worth up to £1,700.

The Individual and Families Fund was first set up in 2021 to help households struggling with energy debt.

This scheme’s support is available to British Gas and non-British Gas customers.

However, if your provider is Ovo Energy, E.ON Next, EDF Energy, Scottish Power, Octopus Energy or Utilita it asks your go to them for assistance first.

You can check out your eligibility for the scheme here.

Elsewhere, EDF has a customer support fund which on average wipes £1,250 off customers’ bills. 

It is available to vulnerable customers experiencing hardship. 

Turn2Us also has an online tool which checks your elibiglty for over 1,400 grants.

The Sun recently published an article on all the bill help worth over £5,000 which you can check out here.

There’s no escaping artificial intelligence (AI), with many new solutions on the market for advisers.

But among the myriad messages, it’s rarely clear what type of AI is being promoted and whether it is suited to your needs.

There are two main types of AI today and it’s important to distinguish which one is being offered to you.

Before you commit, you must really consider what you want the tech to do for you.

Predictive AI

Often considered ‘traditional’ AI, this class of machine learning is trained to recognise patterns in data, text or speech.

Humans (data-annotation specialists) manually mark up data records with what they mean, and data scientists feed this training data into a ‘model’ – a statistical engine they have designed, usually based on some form of neural network technology.

Generative AI is only useful when a human is iteratively interacting and checking every response

This model is then used on new, previously unseen, data to predict what it should be labelled as.

Predictive AI can be used to distinguish whether a picture is a cat or a dog, or if a sentence concerns a client’s financial objectives, their emergency funds or their attitude to risk.

It can be made very accurate and, more importantly, it can be tested as to its accuracy. Its results are repeatable and any biases in its training can be removed.

In short, predictive AI is very good if the time is taken to train it well.

Generative AI

This is the ‘new’ AI – like ChatGPT, or at least the underlying GPT models from OpenAI, Facebook, Mistral, Baidu, Anthropic, Google and others.

You’ll often see these models described as large language models – or LLMs – although that’s a misused coinage, as there are many LLMs in the predictive AI family.

When buying any AI product, be explicit about what you want it for and ask each vendor to explain why their method is best suited to that

The clue to the purpose of generative AI is in the name. This class of AI is designed to generate new data, such as pictures, prose or speech.

It has no capability to understand or analyse your data, merely creating new content based on instructions or prompts. For example, if given an instruction like ‘draw me a parrot’ or ‘write a poem about the sea’ it will do so.

In simple terms, it does this by generating a likely start word from a limited random selection, picking a good next word that is statistically likely, then a third word and so on.

It doesn’t know what it is saying. It simply churns out a sequence of words statistically related to the prompt provided, based on what it has seen before – the data the GPT vendors have trained it on, mostly large portions of the internet.

So, generative AI is good at creating content, whereas predictive AI is good at identifying content.

The confusion

Many vendors are promoting generative AI that appears to understand or identify content.

In reality, they are first performing a simple search into your content to try and find relevant information, then using the first few search results within their GPT query prompt in order to formulate an answer.

It’s rarely clear what type of AI is being promoted and whether it is suited to your needs

Vendors use generative AI as a shortcut to painstakingly labelling data and training a predictive AI model suited to your needs.

The problem with this is that the search request itself is automatically generated, then only a handful of findings are used in generating an answer. The answer is then based on the standard GPT method of statistically generating one word at a time.

That’s plenty of opportunities for errors to creep in, inconsistencies to arise and even hallucinations to appear. In short, you can’t rely on the outcomes (not verified by a human) if you want to use this information for any kind of decision making.

Generative AI is only useful when a human is iteratively interacting and checking every response, such as in a chat or search application.

If you need reliable AI that will consistently identify relevant content or what it means, there is no shortcut to using predictive AI, especially if you want to limit the need for humans to check every answer.

When buying any AI product, be explicit about what you want to use it for and ensure you ask each vendor to explain why their chosen method is best suited to that and, most importantly, how they can guarantee its accuracy and data reliability.

Joe Norburn is chief executive at TCC Group and Recordsure

THE EXACT date five Cineworld sites will shutter for good has been revealed.

Its sites across Glasgow Parkhead, Bedford, Loughborough, Yate and Swindon Regent Circus will close in just a matter of days.

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However, Cineworld Hinckley will be saved.

According to a report in The Mirror, the five sites will shut for good on these exact dates:

• Glasgow Parkhead (closing October 6)
• Bedford (closing October 6)
• Swindon Regent Circus (closing October 6)
• Loughborough (closing October 13)
• Yate (closing October 13)

Bosses at the troubled entertainment group announced the closures back in July, but the move needed to be approved by the courts first.

It forms part of a major restructuring plan to keep the company’s head above water.

Just yesterday, a judge gave the go-ahead for £16million to be injected into Cineworld’s four companies which form the business.

The cash came from the business’s parent company, with an extra £35million to also be made available.

Its four companies. Cine-UK Ltd, Cineworld Cinemas Ltd, Cineworld Cinema Properties Ltd and Cineworld Estates Ltd, will also negotiate leases for their 101 sites across the UK.