Connect with us

Business

Bank of England warns of ‘future stress’ from hedge fund bets against US Treasuries

Published

on

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

The Bank of England has warned of rising “vulnerabilities” in the financial system stemming from increased bets by hedge funds against US government bonds, which reached a record high of $1tn in recent months.

The BoE said on Wednesday that if hedge funds unwound these “short” positions it would have “the potential to amplify the transmission of a future stress”. These short bets are often part of so-called basis trades, where hedge funds aim to profit from small discrepancies between prices of US Treasuries and futures contracts linked to them.

Advertisement

A period of volatility in global financial markets in August “illustrates the potential vulnerabilities in market-based finance to amplify shocks”, the BoE said in a report on the September meeting of its financial policy committee.

“While there was evidence that investor deleveraging had amplified price moves, it did not spill over or materially affect the functioning of core markets,” it said.

However, the central bank warned: “It might have done so if subsequent economic news had not been positive or deleveraging had been more significant or broad based.” It added that valuations remained “stretched”, leaving markets “susceptible to a sharp correction”.

There is potential for volatility in US Treasury markets — which act as a benchmark for funding costs worldwide — after the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates aggressively last month and as the country prepares for a closely fought presidential election.

Advertisement

The BoE said its survey of 55 financial market participants over the summer found they believed geopolitical turmoil and cyber attacks were the biggest risks to UK financial stability. More than 90 per cent identified geopolitical events as a risk, while 80 per cent cited cyber risks.

Officials are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on financial markets, including energy markets.

The BoE said “the current period of elevated geopolitical risk and uncertainty . . . could place further pressure on sovereign debt levels and borrowing costs”. It added that high public debt levels in major economies could have consequences for UK financial stability.

The net short positioning of hedge funds in US Treasury futures markets hit a new high of $1tn in recent months, up from a previous peak of $875bn. “Relative to the size of the US treasury market, this was larger than the previous high reached in 2019,” the BoE said.

Advertisement

A rapid deleveraging of these short positions could be triggered by a number of factors, including “if repo market functioning were to deteriorate materially; if counterparty credit risk were to increase; or if investors in the basis trade were to take losses on their positions”.

The BoE said the UK economic environment had improved and credit conditions had eased after it started to cut interest rates in August. But it warned that “pockets of vulnerability among highly leveraged corporates” remained, including at private equity-owned companies.

Lower interest rates had eased the pressure on UK households, the BoE said, particularly the fifth of mortgage holders on floating rates. This will also reduce the extra cost for the 1.4mn households that will need to refinance fixed-rate mortgages in the next year from over £200 per month last year to £150 per month.

BoE officials also discussed how increased use of artificial intelligence and machine learning could affect financial stability. Warning that AI-based trading algorithms could lead to “increasingly correlated trading strategies”, it announced plans to publish an assessment of the main risks from AI and how it will monitor them in the first half of next year.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

Map of adult insect’s brain offers clues on neurological diseases

Published

on

Stay informed with free updates

An international scientific team has built the first map of an adult insect’s brain, offering a potential breakthrough for our understanding of how the organ works and why it is harmed by neurological diseases.

The project plotted the full 149 metres of biological wiring that make up a fruit fly’s poppy seed-sized brain and govern the organism’s life. It promises to boost knowledge of the human brain since the two species’ organs share many common features, including genes linked to neurological conditions that afflict billions of people worldwide.

Advertisement

One of the major questions we’re addressing is how the wiring of the brain, its neurons and connections can give rise to animal behaviour,” said Mala Murthy, co-lead of the FlyWire research consortium and a professor of neuroscience at Princeton University. “Flies are an important model system for neuroscience, since their brains solve many of the same problems we do.”

Diagram explaining the operation of neurons in animal nervous systems

The venture, published in Nature on Wednesday, had parallels to the Human Genome Project, which was concluded in 2003, researchers said. That sequencing mission has helped power many discoveries about disease.  

FlyWire aimed to chart a “connectome” — a set of possible pathways for information to flow between the neuron cells that make up the brain and the synapses linking them. Researchers sliced up the brain of the Drosophila fruit fly into more than 7,000 sections, analysed them using powerful microscopes and rendered the results as a 3D image.  

The raw diagram was then annotated to identify thousands of different characteristic cell types, in what one scientist described as like adding features such as street names and business opening hours to a Google map. The project used crowdsourcing to assemble “citizen scientists” to ease a proof-reading burden that would have taken one person an estimated 33 years to complete.

The resulting Drosophila connectome of about 140,000 neurons and 50mn synaptic connections is available to researchers for free online. Scientists have already begun looking at how the parts of the brain structure might relate to functions such as walking, tasting and seeing.

Advertisement

“If we can truly understand how any brain functions, it’s bound to tell us something about all brains,” said Sebastian Seung, another co-author on the Nature papers and a Princeton professor. “It’s fair to say that this past decade has seen revolutionary progress in understanding the fly brain.”

All 139,255 brain cells in the brain of an adult fruit fly. Activity within these cells drives an entire organism, from sensory perception to decision making and control of actions, such as flying. They are connected by over 50mn synaptic connections.
All 139,255 brain cells in the brain of an adult fruit fly. Activity within these cells drives the entire organism, from sensory perception to decision making and control of actions © Tyler Sloan for FlyWire, Princeton University (Dorkenwald et al., Nature, 2024)

The connectome offers a “ground truth” that could help power research into neurological diseases, said John Ngai, a co-author and director of the BRAIN initiative at the US National Institutes of Health.

More than 40 per cent of the global population suffered nervous system problems such as stroke, dementia and migraine in 2021, according to research published in March.

“Having this map in hand is necessary — but not sufficient,” Ngai said. “It will really allow us to ask better questions and more precise questions.”

A separate project has begun to map the brain of a mouse, estimated to be a million times larger than that of a baby fruit fly’s. The human brain represents an even tougher challenge: it contains more than 80bn neurons and 100tn connections.

Advertisement

The genome analogy suggests how future work on brain structures could overcome FlyWire’s limitations, such as its lack of data on non-synaptic ways neurons communicate, said Anita Devineni, an Emory University assistant professor. As with the genome work, development of better brain maps will drive progress in areas such as artificial intelligence algorithms.

In a commentary published in Nature, Devineni said FlyWire had “driven technological and conceptual advances that will facilitate the reconstruction and interpretation of future connectomes in Drosophila and other species”.

Illustration by Ian Bott

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Money

Reassured and Confused.com partner on life-insurance offering

Published

on

Reassured and Confused.com partner on life-insurance offering

Insurance broker Reassured has partnered with owners of Confused.com, RVU, on life-insurance offering.

The partnership offers RVU consumers the ability to compare and switch across a range of utilities and financial services products.

It will see RVU brands using Reassured’s services to support customers in comparing life-insurance cover from a wide range of leading insurers, both on an advised and non-advised basis.

RVU owns several comparison site brands, including Money.co.uk and Uswitch, and plans to expand further in the life-insurance market.

Advertisement

Reassured is the UK’s largest life-insurance broker and specialises in arranging life insurance for people across the country. It has helped protect over 1.5 million families over the last 15 years.

Mark Townsend, Reassured chief executive, said: “The RVU brands are huge household names in our industry, and we are delighted that they have chosen Reassured to power its life-insurance offering.

“Now, customers of Confused.com, Money.co.uk and Uswitch can utilise our digital and offline expertise to get the life-insurance cover they need. This deal is a win-win for both RVU and Reassured, and we look forward to working alongside such an established and well-respected company for many years to come.”

Steve Dukes, Confused.com chief executive, added: “Reassured’s commitment to being a consumer-focused organisation was a big attraction for us, as well as their deep expertise in the sector.

Advertisement

“Giving our customers the best experience is at the very core of what we do. And with this partnership, we’re able to utilise Reassured’s expertise alongside our own experience in the industry to help our customers get the right cover for their needs.”

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Stellantis is skidding into unknown territory

Published

on

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

When stuck in traffic, it is best to avoid erratic stop-start driving. That is a lesson Stellantis is learning the hard way.

The European carmaker is suffering from the ills affecting the entire auto sector. Sluggish vehicle sales, competition from Chinese operators and the uncertain trajectory of the transition to electric vehicles have resulted in a slew of warnings, from the likes of Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen. On top of that, Stellantis has managed to fall into a US pothole that is largely of its own making, which was behind this week’s massive profit warning.

Advertisement

Its problem is that, in the favourable post-Covid landscape — in which demand for vehicles outstripped supply — it pressed the accelerator much too hard. It raised prices and cut less profitable models, leading to record North American operating margins of more than 16 per cent in 2022, according to S&P Capital IQ, almost double General Motors’ in the same period.

Line chart of Share price, € showing Stellantis shares have crashed

That strategy crashed into a wall. Consumers cut its market share from 13 per cent to 8 per cent since Covid, according to Harald Hendrikse from Citigroup, resulting in a massive build-up in wholesaler inventories. Efforts to clear this, by cutting prices and lowering production, explain much of Stellantis’s profit warning. It will barely break even in North America, its biggest profit pool, in the second half of the year. Free cash flow, which was expected to be positive, will swing to a €5bn to €10bn loss.

That leaves Stellantis lacking any pitch to investors. Capital returns must now be under review. Worse still, it looks like the group’s sector-leading profitability — which briefly made it a market darling — was simply unsustainable. As many a consumer business has found, focusing on costs at the expense of sales is a recipe for fleeting success and lasting distress.

Stellantis’s road back will be long and winding. Rebuilding market share is a laborious process involving new models and brand investment. The alternative — cutting brands and capacity — is painful. Unsurprisingly, rumours about a merger with France’s Renault (which Stellantis denied in February) have resurfaced in the Italian press.

Investors may also be concerned about the size of the problem that the company managed to accumulate before it slammed on the brakes. Trust in the group’s highly regarded boss, Carlos Tavares, has been hit. With his contract expiring in 2026, Stellantis has begun its search for his successor.

Advertisement

With Stellantis, on about three times forward earnings, trading roughly in line with European rivals such as VW and Renault, it is not clear why anyone would climb aboard its recovery trip now.

camilla.palladino@ft.com

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Money

State pension warning as 340,000 face silent tax raid next year

Published

on

State pension warning as 340,000 face silent tax raid next year

TENS of thousands of retirees are set to pay tax on their state pension for the first time next year.

It is expected that around 340,000 pensioners will be told that they need to pay tax when the state pension rises by £460 in 2025.

340,000 pensioners will need to pay tax on their income for the first time

1

340,000 pensioners will need to pay tax on their income for the first time

Letters from the taxman will land on doorsteps for the first time next April, when the new tax year starts.

Advertisement

This is due to the triple lock, which means the payment made to those aged 66 and over rises every April by the highest out of inflation, the average UK wage increase or 2.5%.

Wages rose by 4% between May and July this year and experts suggest this figure will be the deciding factor in how much the state pension will rise by next year.

With tax thresholds frozen until 2028, this increase will drag around 340,000 pensioners into paying tax for the first time, it has been warned.

Read more on the state pension

This is because the total annual amount of income they receive will be more than their personal allowance.

Advertisement

The allowance is the amount of money you can earn before you have to pay tax on your income.

Under the current rules, this is up to £12,570 each tax year.

Over the next few weeks HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) is writing to 560,000 customers as part of its “simple assessment” process, which will calculate who needs to pay what tax.

It was previously expected that around 140,000 pensioners would receive a letter for the first time this year.

Advertisement

But because of the suspected increase in the state pension, 340,000 people are now likely to get one.

Can you get free cash to help with the cost of living?

Sir Steve Webb, the former pensions minister, told The Sun: “Whilst pensioners benefit from an above inflation increase in 2025, some of the increase will be clawed back through taxation for more and more pensioners.

“This comes on top of the loss of winter fuel payments for most. Taking account of rising energy bills on top of all these changes, by next April, not many pensioners will feel better off overall.”

Previously all pensioners received a Winter Fuel Payment of up to £300 each year to help cover the cost of energy bills.

Advertisement

But in July the government said that the payment, which is not taxable, would only be made to those on low incomes who claim certain benefits.

How does the state pension work?

AT the moment the current state pension is paid to both men and women from age 66 – but it’s due to rise to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046.

The state pension is a recurring payment from the government most Brits start getting when they reach State Pension age.

Advertisement

But not everyone gets the same amount, and you are awarded depending on your National Insurance record.

For most pensioners, it forms only part of their retirement income, as they could have other pots from a workplace pension, earning and savings. 

The new state pension is based on people’s National Insurance records.

Workers must have 35 qualifying years of National Insurance to get the maximum amount of the new state pension.

Advertisement

You earn National Insurance qualifying years through work, or by getting credits, for instance when you are looking after children and claiming child benefit.

If you have gaps, you can top up your record by paying in voluntary National Insurance contributions. 

To get the old, full basic state pension, you will need 30 years of contributions or credits. 

You will need at least 10 years on your NI record to get any state pension. 

Advertisement

These include Pension Credit, Universal Credit, income-related Employment and Support Allowance, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance, Income Support, Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit.

To be eligible you needed to be receiving a benefit during the qualifying week of September 16-22.

Meanwhile, yesterday the energy price cap increased by 10%, adding £149 a year to the average household bill.

Between October 1 and December 31 the energy price cap is set at £1,717 for a typical household which has a dual fuel tariff and pays by direct debit.

Advertisement

The increase will pile further pressure onto pensioners who are struggling to make ends meet this winter.

How will the tax be paid?

HMRC has said that the letters it is sending to pensioners will include detailed calculations of any tax due on the income they receive in the 2023-24 tax year.

Pensioners will need to pay this tax through a Simple Assessment tax bill.

What is the Winter Fuel Payment?

Advertisement

Consumer reporter Sam Walker explains all you need to know about the payment.

The Winter Fuel Payment is an annual tax-free benefit designed to help cover the cost of heating through the colder months.

Most who are eligible receive the payment automatically.

Those who qualify are usually told via a letter sent in October or November each year.

If you do meet the criteria but don’t automatically get the Winter Fuel Payment, you will have to apply on the government’s website.

Advertisement

You’ll qualify for a Winter Fuel Payment this winter if:

  • you were born on or before September 23, 1958
  • you lived in the UK for at least one day during the week of September 16 to 22, 2024, known as the “qualifying week”
  • you receive Pension Credit, Universal Credit, ESA, JSA, Income Support, Child Tax Credit or Working Tax Credit

If you did not live in the UK during the qualifying week, you might still get the payment if both the following apply:

  • you live in Switzerland or a EEA country
  • you have a “genuine and sufficient” link with the UK social security system, such as having lived or worked in the UK and having a family in the UK

But there are exclusions – you can’t get the payment if you live in Cyprus, France, Gibraltar, Greece, Malta, Portugal or Spain.

This is because the average winter temperature is higher than the warmest region of the UK.

You will also not qualify if you:

  • are in hospital getting free treatment for more than a year
  • need permission to enter the UK and your granted leave states that you can not claim public funds
  • were in prison for the whole “qualifying week”
  • lived in a care home for the whole time between 26 June to 24 September 2023, and got Pension Credit, Income Support, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance or income-related Employment and Support Allowance

Payments are usually made between November and December, with some made up until the end of January the following year.

This can be paid online, by bank transfer or by cheque.

Advertisement

If you get a letter after October 31, 2024 for the last tax year you must pay it within three months of the date you received it.

There is also an option to pay in instalments, so long as you pay the full amount by the deadline.

There is an online guide to the Simple Assessment for pensioners which provides more information for those who receive a demand.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Advertisement

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

Source link

Continue Reading

Travel

Edinburgh Airport announces check-in hall revamp

Published

on

Edinburgh Airport announces check-in hall revamp

The £5.8 million project will include new self-service machines and digital wayfinding, as well as the reconfiguration of check-in desks to improve passenger flow

Continue reading Edinburgh Airport announces check-in hall revamp at Business Traveller.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

James Cleverly gains momentum after Tory leadership speeches

Published

on

James Cleverly has bolstered his chances in the Conservative leadership race after his plea to his party to be “more normal” received a warm welcome from delegates in Birmingham, as the four candidates made keynote speeches at the party conference. 

Robert Jenrick, who won more votes from MPs during early voting in the contest, saw his immigration-heavy pitch fail to hold the room, as each contender made back-to-back addresses on Wednesday.

“I was going to vote for Robert Jenrick but I’ve changed my mind,” said Jackie Rance, a Tory member from Berkshire. “James Cleverly was honest and statesmanlike.”

The race to succeed Rishi Sunak was thrown wide open by a four-day event that has seen Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch stoke controversy, while Cleverly put in a popular performance and Tom Tugendhat remained the outsider. 

Advertisement

Cleverly, who came joint third in the second round of voting in the contest, clinched the biggest standing ovation in the auditorium, marking a strong end to the gathering during which he moved into second place in the betting markets, overtaking Badenoch.

A former foreign secretary and home secretary who has also been party chair, Cleverly emphasised his experience and said it was not the time for an “apprentice” to lead the Tories.

He kicked off with an apology, telling the party faithful he was “sorry on behalf of the parliamentary party — who let you down” and warned: “We have to be better, much better.”

The task ahead for the Conservatives was selling the party “with a smile”, he said, arguing: “Let’s be enthusiastic, relatable, positive, optimistic.” He also urged the party to “be more normal”.

Advertisement

Invoking former US president Ronald Reagan, Cleverly said the Tories should follow his lead in cutting taxes, slashing regulation, boosting military spending and winning a landslide. He finished his speech with a riff on one of the Republican’s best-known lines, vowing it could be “morning once again” in Britain.

Jenrick, who has topped the ballot in both rounds of voting by MPs to date, focused heavily on migration in his speech. 

He vowed to quit the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it in UK law with a new British bill of rights if he came to power, as he vowed to “secure our border”. 

Unveiling a five-point plan, Jenrick said he would reject mass migration, focus on cheap and reliable energy, get Britain building again, cut the size of the state and build a more united country.

Advertisement

Doubts rose as to whether his early momentum had stalled, however, as observers suggested he failed to hold the room. 

Tory MP Jesse Norman launched a surprising attack on Jenrick’s performance, branding his speech “lazy, mendacious, simplistic tripe”. 

Badenoch, who had been the favourite going into the contest, won strong applause for a speech in which she said she would “always fight leftwing nonsense”, declared herself a “net zero sceptic” and spelt out how she had challenged views around transgender issues.

She styled herself as a hard-talking truth-teller and said she would deliver tough messages to her party. Her programme for government would start from “first principles” to unpick the legacy of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, which she said persisted in the UK.

Advertisement

She said she would make Labour chancellor Rachel Reeves “wriggle” and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer “sweat”, adding: “We are going to have some fun.”

As candidates seek to attract support of Tory MPs ahead of the next rounds of voting next week — when the field will be whittled down to two, with members voting in the run-off — her campaign also unveiled former cabinet minister Sir David Davis as a new senior MP supporter after her address.

Tugendhat, widely viewed as the outsider, pledged to restore “patriotism and purpose” to the Conservative party, as he said he would focus on delivery rather than ideology.

Focusing heavily on his military career, which he said had fostered his leadership skills, he vowed: “I will serve our country, I will lead with conviction, I will act decisively.” 

A centrist Tory who has tacked rightward in the race, he repeated his pledge to cap net inward legal migration at 100,000 a year and called for tax cuts, simpler planning rules and a reduction in excess regulation. He said his mission was to deliver “prosperity and happiness” to the public.

Cleverly was deemed by many Tory activists to be the big winner of this week’s conference, with a widespread view that Jenrick’s speech had been a disappointment and that he was losing ground.

David Turner from South Shropshire said: “I thought Cleverly did really well. Jenrick didn’t hold the room.” 

Advertisement

Cleverly “came out of the week as the strongest one,” agreed Oliver Bramley, 23. He said Cleverly had a good presence, looked prime ministerial and eschewed “culture war” rhetoric.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2024 WordupNews.com