Science & Environment
Markets watch for dangers of further escalation
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024
Amir Cohen | Reuters
Israel’s government has vowed a severe response to Iran’s unprecedented missile barrage into Tel Aviv, leaving the Middle East on edge as fears rise over a possible all-out war between the two long-time foes.
On Tuesday evening, Iran launched roughly 180 ballistic missiles at several sites across Israel, an attack Tehran said came in response to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah the week prior.
Israeli authorities say there were no casualties as a result of the offensive, and that most of the strikes were intercepted. But the event marked a turning point in a series of escalatory tit-for-tat moves, as Tehran appeared adamant to re-set deterrence and prove to Israel that it could — and would — attack at a time of its choosing.
Markets are now braced for what could follow a likely Israeli retaliation against Iran. Defense stocks are rallying — and long-subdued oil prices may also be set for increases, as industry watchers now see a real threat to crude supplies.
As much as 4% of global oil supply is at risk as oil infrastructure in Iran — one of OPEC’s largest crude producers — could become a target for Israel.
Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2.5% climb. The December delivery contract of global benchmark Brent was trading at $75.37 per barrel at 10:30 a.m. in London, while front-month November U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.68% to $71.70 per barrel.
“I think this focus might be on Israel, but the focus should really be on Iran, and whether there will be attacks on regional infrastructure. That really is the one event that we are looking for, and which could determine a more dangerous path for stock markets, for risk assets in general,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for the British Isles and Asia at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“We know, looking at the acts of war since the 1940s, that those which create an oil crisis [and] a prolonged increase in oil prices are the ones which have a long-lasting impact on stock markets.”
She added that so far, there is “no indication” of that.
Oil infrastructure ‘tempting targets for Israel’
Lewis Sage-Passant, an adjunct professor of intelligence at Sciences Po in Paris, described energy markets as jittery, as investors watch for Israel’s next moves.
“Iran depends on a handful of ‘chokepoint’ export terminals, such as Khark island, which will be tempting targets for Israel,” Sage-Passant said. “Energy sector teams seem nervous about an escalating tit-for-tat of strikes against regional infrastructure. Even without direct targeting, much of the world’s oil infrastructure sits under these missile’s flight paths, so naturally everyone is very nervous.”
Following the Tuesday attack, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned of severe consequences for Iran, saying that the U.S. would staunchly support Israel. But Washington’s efforts to de-escalate and prevent a region-wide conflict have clearly failed, according to Roger Zakheim, a former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary and director of the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington.
Iran’s attack and the subsequent Israeli response “may result in impact on oil, energy markets, certainly aviation, and I think certainly the defense sector … Investments in missile defense and ammunition, those companies that manufacture and produce those systems, for sure are going to be impacted by what’s playing out in the Middle East,” he said.
Immediately following the Iranian strikes, U.S. defense stocks hit record highs. Their European counterparts also ticked higher on Wednesday morning on the rising conflict risks, with Saab and BAE Systems adding 2.2%. Thales and Rheinmetall both rose more than 1.3%.
“Israelis now will respond, not only in kind, but do what is necessary to restore deterrence,” Zakheim added.
Deterrence, or full-blown war?
Questions remain whether a strong Israeli response would restore deterrence or trigger further escalation from Iran and tip the nations into a full-blown war. In a statement following the country’s missile salvos, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.”
Aside from geographical choke points in the oil market, “there are plenty of facilities on [the] Iranian side and also [on the ] Israeli side that could all be targeted in terms of critical infrastructure,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president at SVB Energy, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“That infrastructure is all connected,” she said, stressing that the sheer size of Iran means “it is impossible to somehow secure all of it.”
Some market watchers are warning oil could hit $100 per barrel.
Vakhshouri expressed doubts over such a forecast, noting that geopolitical events often only affect oil prices temporarily. The extent and duration of any market impact “depends on where the destruction would be and how much oil is going to be taken off the market,” she said.
“Definitely, prices will have an upward trend. [But] the other thing is that the market is focusing on huge uncertainty on both sides … [whether] it’s the demand side or the geopolitical side.”
A longer-term issue underpinning oil prices is the broader global demand picture. Brent crude hit a 33-month low in mid-September and had hovered around $70 per barrel until Iran’s missile attack on Israel, based on slowing global demand and abundant supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers.
“So it’s very interesting moment now,” Vakhshouri said. “We have the prices being resilient due to the fear of low demand in the market, but also the geopolitical factor is real. Any side could really push the market, and we have seen just in the past few days, how the prices go up and down, depending on how the sentiments are triggered in the market.”
Science & Environment
Fly brain sheds light on human thought process
They can walk, hover and the males can even sing love songs to woo mates – all this with a brain that’s tinier than a pinhead.
Now for the first time scientists researching the brain of a fly have identified the position, shape and connections of every single one of its 130,000 cells and 50 million connections.
It’s the most detailed analysis of the brain of an adult animal ever produced.
One leading brain specialist independent of the new research described the breakthrough as a “huge leap” in our understanding of our own brains.
One of the research leaders said it would shed new light into “the mechanism of thought”.
Dr Gregory Jefferis, of the Medical Research Council’s Laboratory of Molecular Biology (LMB) in Cambridge told BBC News that currently we have no idea how the network of brain cells in each of our heads enables us to interact with each other and the world around us.
“What are the connections? How do the signals flow through the system that can let us process the information to recognise your face, that lets you hear my voice and turn these words into electrical signals?
“The mapping of the fly brain is really remarkable and will help us get a real grasp of how our own brains work.”
We have a million times as many brain cells, or neurons, than the fruit fly which was studied. So how can the wiring diagram of an insect brain help scientists learn how we think?
The images the scientists have produced, which have been published in the journal Nature, show a tangle of wiring that is as beautiful as it is complex.
Its shape and structure holds the key to explaining how such a tiny organ can carry out so many powerful computational tasks. Developing a computer the size of a poppy seed capable of all these tasks is way beyond the ability of modern science.
Dr Mala Murthy, another of the project’s co-leaders, from Princeton University, said the new wiring diagram, known scientifically as a connectome, would be “transformative for neuroscientists”.
“It will help researchers trying to better understand how a healthy brain works. In the future we hope that it will be possible to compare what happens when things go wrong in our brains.”
That is a view backed by Dr Lucia Prieto Godolo, a group leader in brain research at the Francis Crick Institute in London, who is independent of the research team.
“Researchers have completed the connectomes of a simple worm which has 300 wires and a maggot which has three thousand, but having a complete connectome of something with 130,000 wires is an amazing technical feat which paves the way for finding the connectomes for larger brains such as the mouse and maybe in several decades our own.”
The researchers have been able to identify separate circuits for many individual functions and show how they are connected.
The wires involved with movement for example are at the base of the brain, whereas those for processing vision are towards the side. There are many more neurons involved in the latter because seeing requires much more computational power.
While scientists already knew about the separate circuits they did not know how they were connected together.
Why are flies so difficult to swat?
Other researchers are already using the circuit diagrams, for example to work out why flies are so difficult to swat.
The vision circuits detect which direction your rolled up newspaper is coming from, and they pass on the signal to the fly’s legs.
But crucially, they send a stronger jumping signal to the legs facing away from the object of their imminent demise. So you could say they jump away without even having to think – literally faster than the speed of thought.
This finding may explain why we lumbering humans seldom squash flies.
The wiring diagram was made by slicing up a fly brain using what is essentially a microscopic cheese grater, photographing each of the 7,000 slices and digitally putting them altogether. Then the Princeton team applied artificial intelligence to extract the shapes and connections of all the neurons. But the AI wasn’t perfect – the researchers still had to fix over three million mistakes by hand.
This in itself was a technical tour de force, but the job was only half done. The map on its own was meaningless unless there was a description of what each wire was supposed to do, according to Dr Philipp Schlegel, who is also from the Medical Research Council’s Laboratory of Molecular Biology.
“This data is a bit like Google Maps but for brains: the raw wiring diagram between neurons is like knowing which structures correspond to streets and buildings.
“Describing the neurons is like adding the names for streets and towns, business opening times, phone numbers, reviews, etc. to the map. You need both for it to be really useful.”
The fly connectome is available to any scientist that wants to use it to guide their research. Dr Schlegel believes that the world of neuroscience will see “an avalanche of discoveries in the next couple of years” thanks to this new map.
A human brain is so much larger than the fly’s, and we don’t yet have the technology to capture all the information about its wiring.
But the researchers believe that perhaps in 30 years it may be possible to have a human connectome. The fly brain, they say, is a start of a new, deeper understanding of how our own minds work.
The research has been conducted by a large international collaboration of scientists, called the FlyWire Consortium.
Science & Environment
Crude oil jumps nearly 3% as Israel vows ‘painful’ response to Iran missile attack
U.S. crude oil rose nearly 3% on Wednesday as traders fear Israel could target Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for a ballistic missile attack.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, vowed late Tuesday that Israel will exact a “painful” response against Iran. Danon’s threat came hours after the Islamic Republic launched around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
Here are Wednesday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $71.86 per barrel, up $2.03, or 2.91%. Year to date, U.S. crude has gained less than 1%.
- Brent December contract: $75.50 per barrel, up $1.94, or 2.64%. Year to date, the global benchmark is down about 2%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0113 per gallon, up 2.27%. Year to date, gasoline is down nearly 5%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.984 per thousand cubic feet, up 3.04%. Year to date, gas is up nearly 19%.
“The next turn in this retaliation spiral may very well involve oil – via the degrading of Iran’s oil capacity or Iran’s proxies attacking oil and gas shipping from the Persian Gulf,” Piper Sandler analysts told clients in a Wednesday note. Israel might take aim at Iran’s oil industry to hit Tehran’s income and degrade its ability wage war, they said.
The geopolitical risk premium, however, should remain moderate given high spare oil capacity globally and the fact that there have been limited actual production disruptions, Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby told clients Wednesday.
OPEC+ is planning to increase oil production in December, and U.S. output has been set records. Demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, has also been soft this year.
Science & Environment
Time to walk away from the net zero fantasy
Andrew Forrest, chairman of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Australian mining tycoon Andrew Forrest, founder and executive chairman of Fortescue, says it is time for the world to walk away from the “proven fantasy” of net zero emissions by 2050 and to embrace “real zero” by 2040 instead.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday, Forrest called on business executives and politicians reluctant to make the changes necessary to avert the worst of what the climate crisis has in store to make way for leaders willing to take on the decarbonization challenge.
Fortescue, which is the world’s fourth-largest iron ore miner, has outlined plans to stop burning fossil fuels across its Australian iron ore operations by the end of the decade — and urged other hard-to-abate companies to follow suit.
“All those leaders who say to me, say to the world, say to their kids, ‘oh you know we can’t do it, my company can’t do it, I can’t do it, you don’t understand we can’t actually do it,’” Forrest said in an exclusive interview.
“What they are really saying is that you can’t do it. And I’m saying to each of those chief executives and those political leaders who use the words ‘I can’t,’ OK, what about you get off the stage and let on a young girl or wiser leader who can. Someone with a bit of ticker because the technology is there,” he continued.
“We know the world can go real zero 2040 and I’m reaching out to the business people and politicians across our planet to say it is time now to walk away from this proven fantasy [of] net zero 2050 and adopt real zero 2040,” Forrest said. “We can, we must, let’s do it.”
Net zero refers to the goal of achieving a state of balance between the carbon emitted into the atmosphere and the carbon removed from it.
More than 140 countries, including major polluters such as the U.S., India and the European Union, have adopted plans to reach net zero.
A hydrogen-powered haul truck, right, at the Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. Christmas Creek mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, Australia, on Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
To meet the critically important warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a target ascribed in the landmark Paris Agreement, global carbon emissions should reach net zero by around the middle of the century, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit non-profit.
For high-income nations, such as the U.S., it means reaching net zero by 2050 or earlier, while for low-income countries, it can mean achieving net zero by the 2050s or 2060s.
What is ‘real zero’?
“Real zero is the ability of this planet to use the technology it has right now. It’s evolving and it’s getting better very quickly, but to use the technology we have right now to stop burning all fossil fuels by 2040,” Forrest said.
“If we did that by 2030, we’ve got a 50:50 chance of avoiding the worst ravages of global warming — that’s not going to happen. Fortescue is going to make it happen. We’re a huge industrial company, massive polluter, we’ll go real zero. We’ll stop burning all fossil fuels easily this decade, not next, this decade,” he added.
“And we’re saying to the world, if you want to hold that planetary boundary to a future which is inheritable, tolerable for your kids then we must go real zero. We must stop burning fossil fuels by 2040,” Forrest said.
A worker walks in the Green Hub area of the Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. Christmas Creek mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, Australia, on Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Scientists have repeatedly pushed for rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to stop global average temperatures rising.
These calls have continued through an alarming run of temperature records that have put the planet firmly on course to notch its hottest year in human history in 2024.
Extreme temperatures are fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.
Science & Environment
Yale’s Stephen Roach warns of global volatility, ‘whipsawed’ markets
01 October 2024, Israel, Tel Aviv: Missiles launched from Iran are seen in the sky over Tel Aviv.
Ilia Yefimovich/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Markets are in danger of being “whipsawed” by the combination of regional conflict in the Middle East and rising unemployment in the United States, says Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center.
The conflict in the Middle East escalated on Tuesday, with Iran launching a ballistic missile attack on Israel after its killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.
Most Asian markets fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, as investors fretted over rising tensions in the Middle East.
“The markets really will not know where to turn,” Roach said, adding that conflicts in the Middle East are adding to inflationary risks at a time when global central banks are starting to ease monetary policy.
“We are likely to see significant increases in volatility and markets that really are whipped back and forth dramatically,” Roach told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Oil market impact
The Israel Defense Forces said its troops had started launching new strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in response to Iran’s missile attack Tuesday night.
It remains to be seen whether there will be lasting effects on inflation, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander, adding that the oil market will be “affected more significantly” if the tension escalates.
Iran is the third-largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping out nearly four million barrels of oil per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Oil prices had jumped over 5% after the missile strike before tapering to a 2% climb.
Outlook for interest rates
The Israeli response to Iran’s attacks “might throw the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut off track,” said Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The U.S. Federal Reserve projected cutting interest rates by another half point over the next two policy meetings this year, according to the central bank’s so-called dot plot from the September meeting.
Traders are also looking to U.S. payroll data on Friday for more indications on the state of the economy after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s jumbo rate cut in September. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to accelerate the easing cycle to achieve a soft landing.
The unemployment rate in September is expected to come in at 4.2%, according to data of a Reuters poll on LSEG, unchanged from the August figure. The unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July, a dramatic rise from the five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.
Another factor that could affect the Fed’s rate-cutting pace is how long dockworkers’ strikes at the U.S. East and Gulf coasts will last, Tay said.
Dockworkers at ports stretching from Maine to Texas have gone on a large-scale strike over disputes on wages and threats from automation. It’s expected to disrupt global supply chains and has halted the flow of nearly half of the country’s ocean shipping, Reuters reported.
“Any disruption of the port, any work stoppage at the port is going to have a very significant economic consequence and very quickly,” said Peter Tirschwell of S&P Global Market Intelligence, warning that “the longer this goes on, the quicker the economic damage will mount.”
Science & Environment
Soft landing hit by minor turbulence
Dockworkers strike at the Bayport Container Terminal in Seabrook, Texas, on October 1, 2024.
Mark Felix | Afp | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
U.S. stocks shaken as Hong Kong market rallies
U.S. stocks fell on fears over growing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 slipped 0.93%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.53%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index popped around 5%, propelled by the year’s strongest rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese property stocks.
Escalating Middle East conflict
Prices of WTI and Brent oil rose around 1.6% during Asian trading hours as conflict escalated in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Israel began a ground offensive in Lebanon and Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel. Analysts told CNBC there’s a chance Israel will hit Iran’s oil infrastructure, which could cause oil to spike to more than $100 a barrel.
Widespread effect of port strike
Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association started striking Tuesday, halting activity at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, which stretch from Maine to Texas. If the strike drags on, global supply chains and the economy could take a beating. That runs the risk of causing inflation to flare up again.
Risk-off on crypto
Amid this cautious atmosphere, investors pulled back from cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,407.21, down from nearly $66,000 on Sunday. Crypto-related companies also struggled on Tuesday. Coinbase tumbled 7.4% and fell around 1% in extended trading.
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The bottom line
Just when the coast appeared clear, geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain snarl-ups threaten to turn the soft-landing trajectory into a bumpy one.
Port workers along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast started striking Tuesday. At a port in the New York-New Jersey area, around 100,000 shipping containers “are literally in limbo in the port,” said New York Governor Kathy Hochul.
“A disruption of a week or two will create some backlogs but the broader consequences will be minimal,” said Adam Kamins, economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Should the work stoppage go on for longer, however, “you’re running into businesses that have real shortages and, yeah, they’ll absolutely have to raise those prices,” said Christopher Ball, economics professor at Quinnipiac University.
(Fans of Rao’s pasta sauce need not fear, for now. Piper Sandler wrote that Campbell Soup, which bought Rao’s earlier this year, “has healthy levels of inventory on hand.”)
Meanwhile, oil prices spiked as markets feared Iran, a member of OPEC, would be dragged into a larger conflict in the Middle East. Higher oil prices pose a risk to inflation resurging, or at least slowing less than everyone is hoping for.
With those fears and uncertainties swirling, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, climbed to 19.3 on Tuesday. It closed at 15.4 a week ago. Major U.S. indexes fell, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq suffering the most as megacaps like Tesla, Nvidia and Apple dropped.
It’s just the first days of the port strike and flare-up in Middle East tensions, however. The classic safe-haven trades, like bonds, gold and the U.S. dollar, aren’t showing up in the prices of those assets yet, noted CNBC’s Steve Liesman.
The best-case scenario would be that recent events are just minor turbulence on the way to a soft landing.
– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Fred Imbert, Lori Ann LaRocco, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring and Brian Evans contributed to this story.
Science & Environment
Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.
Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.
“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”
These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.
Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.
Oil prices year-to-date
Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.
The attack came on the heels of Israel‘s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.
Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.
As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase.
Bob McNally
President of Rapidan Energy Group
Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.
Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
New phase of the war?
Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.
“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”
“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.
Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.
These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.
Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption, said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.
Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.
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