Bitcoin ($BTC) is still following a local downward trend, and has now lost 13%, equal to $11,000, since the last all-time high of $108,000. Can $BTC now start to recover, or is there more downside to come?
Market sentiment losing momentum
Market sentiment is losing its optimistic momentum over the last week as $BTC continues to track downwards after attaining the all-time high of $108,000. Having reached as low as $92,000 last Friday, it is to be wondered if this local downtrend will continue.
MicroStrategy makes customary Monday buy announcement
On the demand side, MicroStrategy bought again on Monday, as has become the norm over the last several weeks. The company bought $561 million worth, equivalent to 5,262 BTC.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experience third straight day of outflows
However, this needs to be balanced against the recent sales of Bitcoin by the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The third straight trading day of selling saw a net outflow from the ETFs of 2.38K BTC, making that a total of nearly 12K BTC in net outflow over this three day period.
$BTC following classic breakdown pattern
Source: TradingView
In the 4-hour time frame the $BTC price is following a classic breakdown move. The price fell out of the ascending channel and retested its bottom trendline, before continuing down to perhaps hit the measured move at around $89,600. This would be just below the ascending trendline which bisects the last bull market double top.
$BTC respecting multiple year ascending trendline
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart view for $BTC shows how the price is currently respecting the aforementioned ascending trendline. A confirmed break below this would at least interrupt this upward trend, and perhaps augur a return to the major bull market support at $70,000.
The Aroon indicator below is one of the top chart indicators but is not seen as frequently as moving averages, RSI, or MACD et al. The Aroon indicator measures trend strength and indicates potential reversals.
Basically, as long as the Aroon Up indicator line is above the Aroon Down indicator line, the trend is up, and when the opposite occurs the trend is down.
Currently the jaws between the two indicators are wide apart. A dip for the Aroon Up indicator line down to 70.00 and below would perhaps be the time for some concern. As things stand, this indicator is still looking bullish.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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