ET Intelligence Group: A cursory look at the March 2026 quarter performance of the top IT players suggests steady momentum in new deal flows and resilient operating margins. What it masks, however, is a gradual weakening in sequential quarterly revenue growth driven by delayed project rollouts.

For instance, Infosys and HCL Technologies (HCLTech) reported their strongest three-year top line growth of 4.6% and 6% respectively in dollar terms for FY26. However, both posted a worse-than-expected sequential decline of 1.2% and 2.9% in fourth quarter revenue in that order. Analysts had anticipated a drop of under 1% in each case. At Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), annual revenue contracted 0.5% in FY26, marking its first ever decline since public listing in 2004.

AI disruption risk
Apart from the tapering in quarterly topline performance, another concern is that the top IT pack’s best multi-year annual revenue growth has now slipped to the mid-single-digit range. That makes the talks of deflation or cannibalisation of revenue by the ever-advancing capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) models and agents real. In that case, investors would want to find out whether the stock valuations of the IT exporters have been adjusted enough.The trailing price-earnings (P/E) multiples of the top IT companies including TCS, Infosys, HCLTech and Wipro have been gradually falling over the past decade. After staying in the mid-to-high 20s, the P/Es have now dropped to around 20 or lower. Can they fall further?

Weak guidance signals
The revenue forecasts by some of the companies may offer some cues. The FY27 guidance issued by Infosys and HCLTech and for the June quarter issued by Wipro looks less than encouraging. HCLTech guided 1.5-4.5% growth for services revenue, almost half of what the street was expecting. For Infosys too, the guidance of 1.5-3.5% revenue growth for FY27 was below the expectation of 3-5% growth. Wipro guided for either a flat revenue or a 2% drop on a sequential basis for the first quarter of FY27 amid slower project ramp ups.
To be sure, Infosys has historically chosen to err on the side of caution while issuing guidance. For instance, it had guided a 0-3% growth at the beginning of FY26, which was gradually revised to 3-3.5% growth by January 2026 and it eventually delivered 3.1% growth in constant currency. It will be too early to predict whether the company will be able to raise its FY27 forecast during subsequent quarters; that will depend upon the momentum in project rollouts and the pace of decision making by clients.In the short term, the IT stocks are expected to remain under pressure and may show an intermittent uptick, depending upon the extent of the weakness in rupee against the dollar.

Asian equities opened lower as concerns grew that US-Iran talks were making little progress toward de-escalating the Middle East conflict, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Oil rose.

Stocks in Asia dropped at the open, sending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.1%. While Wall Street gauges edged lower on Thursday, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% early Friday on optimism sparked by Intel Corp.’s earnings. The chipmaker jumped 19% in after-hours trading after its sales forecast topped expectations. Semiconductor stocks were outliers in the US session, climbing for a 17th consecutive day.

Souring risk appetite, global crude benchmark Brent opened 1.1% higher to $106.20 a barrel on Friday as geopolitical risks intensified. An index of the dollar held its gains from the prior session and is set for its best run this month. Treasuries held their losses made during the US session as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns.

Investors remained cautious as markets hinge on whether Iran tensions escalate or shift toward diplomacy. Traders will watch signals from Washington and Tehran, along with shipping flows, for clues on energy supply risks, with any Strait of Hormuz disruption likely to keep oil elevated and weigh on global economic growth.

“There’s a fair bit of uncertainty when it comes to diplomacy between the two sides,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Less comforting is the ongoing lack of clarity around the Strait of Hormuz. With no clear plan to reopen it, uncertainty remains elevated.”

The prospect of Iran agreeing to more in-person peace talks with the US is being hindered by President Donald Trump’s threats and brash social media posts, according to several officials with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts to end their war.
Late Thursday in the US, Trump said Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks. The move creates space to work on a long-term deal and removes a roadblock to ending the US war with Iran.Earlier, Trump ordered the US Navy to fire on any vessel laying mines in the strait, while adding Tehran wants a deal and talks are underway. Also, US forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean as the navy stepped up its blockade of the Islamic Republic’s shipping. Tehran continues to keep Hormuz effectively closed, preventing the passage of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil and fuel as well as other commercial traffic.

“As long as flows through the Strait remain restricted, the market keeps tightening and oil inventories keep falling, oil prices will remain supported,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

In Asia, the yen was flat early Friday after weakening against the dollar for a fourth session on Thursday.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact around the clock with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains on high alert over speculative moves that are keeping the yen weak.

In other corners of the market, gold opened little changed on Friday after declining in its previous session. Elsewhere, Bitcoin was steady, trading at around $78,000.

While markets have whipsawed on geopolitical risks, corporate profits have remained strong. Nearly 80% of the US equity benchmark’s firms have beaten first-quarter earnings estimates so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While volatility increased with the onset of the Iran conflict, financial markets have proven relatively resilient, noted Adam Hetts and Oliver Blackbourn at Janus Henderson.

“Investors coalesced around the critical assumption that hostilities and the associated disruptions to the global economy would be short lived,” they said. “Our sentiment and positioning indicators showed drawdowns within several market segments reaching capitulation territory and could therefore represent attractive entry points.”

As the 2026 NFL Draft is set to kick off, Fanatics and the NFL announced an exclusive, multi-year partnership where the global sports platform will be the league’s official on-site retail partner at marquee events like the one set for Thursday night in Pittsburgh. 

Fanatics will be bringing its on-site retail expertise to marquee global events, including the Super Bowl, NFL Kickoff, NFL International Games, NFL Flag Championships, NFL Scouting Combine and the Pro Bowl Games. 

This marks the first time both sides have come together to impact on-location retail at the Super Bowl and NFL Draft, the latter of which seeing a fun activation for all fans watching their favorite teams draft the future over the next three days. 

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Fanatics will be operating more than 10 retail locations throughout the draft footprint in Pittsburgh, headlined by a massive, 13,000-square-foot NFL Shop flagship tent. The footprint will also include satellite trailers, stadium concourse locations and more all conveniently located throughout the North Shore of Pittsburgh, which includes Acrisure Stadium and Point State Park. 

There will be more than 250 products from brands like Nike, New Era, Mitchell & ness, Topps, ’47, Homage, Yeti and many more as part of Fanatics’ on-location retail system with the league. 

‘NFL REDZONE’ HOST SCOTT HANSON PREDICTS WILD FIRST ROUND OF THE NFL DRAFT

And even better, for the first time ever, fans at the draft will be able to order a special jersey for any first-round pick moments after that player is selected, with jerseys produced entirely on-site. The jerseys will feature a 2026 NFL Draft patch, the player’s name and the number one on the back – just like the ones they will receive on stage. 

“As the NFL has grown into a year-round, global event leader, Fanatics has established itself as the perfect partner to meet consumer demand for the best merchandise possible,” Casey Collins, NFL Senior Vice President of Consumer Products and Licensing, said in a statement. “We look forward to working in lockstep with Fanatics to deliver every fan a world-class retail experience during the League’s biggest moments.” 

Fanatics’ expanded partnership with the NFL taps into the global sports platform’s merchandising and operational capabilities, while also showcasing its creativity with the retail footprint at these key events each year. 

For example, exclusive and unique collaborations and capsule collections were created for the NFL Draft, focusing on the rich history of Pittsburgh. The “Bridge to Greatness” is a Fanatics curated assortment of premium workwear-inspired T-shirts, hoodies, quarter-zips, and coaches jackets in black-on-black and Pittsburgh’s black and gold colorways, which will be available exclusively onsite for the draft. Pittsburgh-based artist Jeremy Raymer will also be hosting a live art activation, creating one-of-one pieces for the collection. 

Mitchell & Ness also created a Mac Miller tribute collection for the late Pittsburgh music icon, which includes jerseys, T-shirts, hoodies and hats. From Homage’s tributes to the beloved Primanti Brothers and Mr. Rogers institutions, to designer John Geiger’s collaborations with Fanatics and New Era, the draft will have it all for those in the great city of Pittsburgh as well as those traveling to witness their rookie selections become a part of their team in person. 

“Fanatics and the NFL have built a truly collaborative, cross-functional business together, and this partnership is a testament to that growth and a look to the future,” Gary Gertzog, Fanatics President of Business Affairs, said in a statement. “The League is reaching more fans across more countries each year, and we believe that our global scale and expertise in merchandising and retail operations set us up perfectly to super-serve the fan experience across these coveted, marquee sports moments.”

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Fanatics was already the official e-commerce partner of the NFL, but this partnership significantly expands their work together, impacting the millions of fans in the States and beyond to deliver an unparalleled fan experience during football’s greatest events. 

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