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Top shale boss says US ‘unusually vulnerable’ to Middle East oil shock

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US shale magnate Harold Hamm has accused the Biden administration of leaving the nation “unusually vulnerable” to a Middle East oil price shock by draining its strategic petroleum reserve, damaging domestic production and bungling foreign policy.

The Continental Resources founder told the Financial Times he was “very concerned” that Middle East conflict could disrupt global oil supplies while the US shale patch had been put in a “weakened condition”, unable to rapidly lift output.

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“They have drained the SPR, and refinery inventories are at their lowest in America [in years]. And you just never know when you need it. It’s kind of like having gas in your car,” said the billionaire shale boss.

“We are in an unusually vulnerable position . . . everybody is looking in the direction [of the Middle East] right now — and has been for the last four years — but we had a president that frankly wasn’t at home.”

While strategic reserves have been drawn down, commercial inventories of crude and petroleum have surged 25 per cent over the past decade. Officials have been replenishing SPR reserves since June 2023, which now stand 10 per cent higher since then, at 382mn barrels.

US oil and gas production has hit record highs under President Joe Biden, while crude and LNG exports have soared.

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Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said the US was in a better position now to weather supply disruptions than in the 1970s, when some Arab Opec members imposed an embargo on shipping crude to western countries that triggered a sudden price spike.

“We’ve battened down a lot of hatches,” he said, giving the US “limited industrial exposure to high crude prices”.

The comments from Hamm, a prominent donor to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s election drive, echo campaign trail comments from the former president, who has accused the Biden administration of a “war on American energy” and taking the US to the “brink of world war three”.

Hamm, a pioneer of the shale revolution, spoke to the FT shortly before Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, a response to Israel Defense Forces’ ground offensive against Hizbollah in southern Lebanon.

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The Iranian attack sent oil prices up 5 per cent to $75.40 on Tuesday, amid fears of a wider conflict in a region accounting for about a third of global oil production capacity.

Geopolitical analysts have warned any conflict involving Tehran could threaten Gulf oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint bordering Iran through which 20 per cent of the world’s crude supplies pass.

Further fuel price rises would be uncomfortable for the Biden administration and vice-president Kamala Harris, who is running for the White House with a pledge to drive down the cost of everyday goods.

US petrol prices average about $3.40 a gallon, down about a third from their price in mid-2022, when a surge in crude markets after Russia invaded Ukraine pushed up fuel costs.

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The White House began releasing oil from the SPR in 2021 — created in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s — ahead of the invasion in an attempt to keep down domestic petrol prices.

It released another 180mn barrels of oil from the reserve in 2022 after sanctions on Russia brought fears of supply disruptions.

The US has been buying back some of the oil but has 382mn barrels — about half of capacity — left in the SPR, enough to meet about 19 days of consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Line chart of Weekly stocks of crude oil in Strategic Petroleum Reserve, millions of barrels showing US emergency crude stockpiles are half full

Hamm also accused the Biden administration of trying to restrict US oil and gas investment by pursuing “short-sighted” policies including curbs on some drilling and a pause on new liquefied natural gas plants, compromising energy security at a time of mounting geopolitical risk.

“It’s very important that we don’t crash this industry any further than the administration has crashed it already,” said Hamm, adding that he expected Harris to maintain curbs on the industry if she won the election in November.

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A US official rejected Hamm’s criticisms of the Biden administration, saying the Washington played an active role in ensuring conflicts overseas had not damaged Americans.

“We’ve done this by accelerating the energy transition, on the one hand reducing fossil fuels demand in the process, and making strategic releases from the SPR,” the official said.

“People said this would break the market, but it didn’t. People then said we would have $100 oil this year, but we haven’t. People said we wouldn’t be able to fill up the SPR. But we are filling the SPR. We put a plan together in January of 2022 and we have stuck to it without deviation, despite all the dire predictions.”

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FT Crossword: Number 17,858

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FT Crossword: Number 17,858

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Major update after 100,000 state pensioners underpaid £10,000 each due to error

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Major update after 100,000 state pensioners underpaid £10,000 each due to error

A MAJOR update has been issued after tens of thousands of married female retirees were underpaid the state pension due to a government error.

The Parliamentary Ombudsman confirmed this week that it will launch a full investigation into the issue.

More than 100,000 women could have been underpaid state pension due to an error

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More than 100,000 women could have been underpaid state pension due to an errorCredit: Alamy

Failings in the old state pension system left potentially more than 100,000 married women without the payments they were due.

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These women have been contacted and informed that a “detailed investigation” has begun into this group of complaints.

If successful, the Government could be forced to hand out hundreds of millions of pounds in state pension arrears to all of the women who missed out.

This could include thousands of women who died without ever being paid the correct pension.

Read more on the state pension

Former Pensions Minister Sir Steve Webb criticised the previous system, calling it “archaic and sexist”.

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“This is a major milestone in a long-running campaign for justice for thousands of married women,” he said.

“The fact that they did not know this was needed indicates a system which let them down and has cost them in many cases thousands of pounds through no fault of their own.”

These women did not ignore official correspondence and would clearly have made a claim had they realised it was needed one their husband retired, he added. 

Sir Steve estimates that some of these women will have lost out by £10,000 or more in the period since their husband retired.

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How did the error happen?

Prior to a rule change in March 2008 married women could claim the state pension at age 60.

What are the different types of pensions?

This was initially awarded purely based on their own National Insurance record, which showed how many years they had made contributions.

If they had spent time at home raising a family or had other gaps in their employment history then their state pension could be very low.

For many, this could be as little as 25% of the full basic pension.

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But when their husband claimed his state pension married women could get an increase in the amount they would receive.

If their husband had made enough contributions then the amount of state pension they would receive could increase to as much as 60% of the full basic pension.

How does the state pension work?

AT the moment the current state pension is paid to both men and women from age 66 – but it’s due to rise to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046.

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The state pension is a recurring payment from the government most Brits start getting when they reach State Pension age.

But not everyone gets the same amount, and you are awarded depending on your National Insurance record.

For most pensioners, it forms only part of their retirement income, as they could have other pots from a workplace pension, earning and savings. 

The new state pension is based on people’s National Insurance records.

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Workers must have 35 qualifying years of National Insurance to get the maximum amount of the new state pension.

You earn National Insurance qualifying years through work, or by getting credits, for instance when you are looking after children and claiming child benefit.

If you have gaps, you can top up your record by paying in voluntary National Insurance contributions. 

To get the old, full basic state pension, you will need 30 years of contributions or credits. 

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You will need at least 10 years on your NI record to get any state pension. 

But this uplift only happened if they made a further state pension application once their husband retired.

Tens of thousands of married women assumed that because they had already applied for the state pension they would be paid the correct amount.

Those who did not make a second claim would remain on the low pension indefinitely.

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If they found out about the potential uplift later they could only backdate their claim by one year, leaving them thousands of pounds out of pocket.

In cases seen by Sir Steve Webb some women potentially missed out on more than a decade of increased pension payments.

More shockingly still, many women were only notified of what they needed to do to claim if their husband ticked a box on his state pension pack.

Doing so would mean that two state pension claims forms were sent to him, one of which was to be given to his wife.

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Failure of the husband to tick the box or to pass on the form to his wife would mean that she missed out.

Meanwhile, she could also be unfairly penalised if the DWP only sent one form rather than two.

When did the rule change?

The system was changed in March 2008 so that married women received a state pension uplift automatically without needing to make a further claim.

But women who had made a claim before 2008 did not benefit from the rule change.

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During the investigation, the Ombudsman will ask the Department for Work and Pensions for all of the information available to married women when the letters were sent.

It will then share its preliminary findings with the DWP and those making a claim before it reaches a final recommendation.

What can I do about it?

You can contact the DWP directly and query whether you have been affected.

Another option is to use an online tool or advice site to see whether they can help.

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An online tool launched by Sir Steve Webb on behalf of actuarial firm LCP can help married women check if they might be affected.

You can then contact the pension service to get your state pension entitlement reviewed.

What are state pension errors?

STEVE Webb, partner at LCP and former Pensions Minister, explains what state pension errors are and how they can occur:

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The way state pensions are worked out is so complicated that many thousands of people have been paid the wrong amount for years without even realising it.  

The amount of retirement pension you get usually depends on your National Insurance (NI) record. 

One big source of errors has been cases where NI records have been incorrect, particularly for years spent at home with children. 

This is a system known as ‘Home Responsibilities Protection’.

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Alternatively, particularly for older pensioners, the amount you get can depend on the NI contributions made by your spouse. 

Errors have arisen where the Government has failed to adjust the pensions of married women when their husbands retired or failed to increase pensions when someone was bereaved and lost a husband or wife.

Although the Government has spent years trying to fix these problems, there are still many thousands of people – many of them older women – on the wrong pension.

If you have always thought that your pension seems low, then it is worth contacting the Pensions Service to ask them to check, especially if you spent time at home raising children or if you were widowed and your pension didn’t change when your spouse died.

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Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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The man behind Japan’s $170bn bid to prop up the yen

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The man behind Japan's $170bn bid to prop up the yen

For several years, Masato Kanda hardly slept.

“Three hours a night is an exaggeration,” he laughs as he speaks to the BBC from Tokyo.

“I slept for three hours consecutively before being woken up but I then went back to bed, so if you add them up, I got a bit more.”

So why was this 59 year-old bureaucrat’s schedule so punishing?

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Until the end of July, he was Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, the country’s top currency diplomat, or yen czar.

Key to the role was fending off currency market speculators that could trigger turmoil in one of the world’s largest economies.

Historically, authorities intervened to weaken the value of the Japanese currency. A weak yen is good for exporters like Toyota and Sony as it makes goods cheaper for overseas buyers.

But when the yen plummeted during Mr Kanda’s time in office it increased the cost of importing essential items like food and fuel, causing a cost of living crisis in a country more used to seeing prices fall rather than rise.

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In his three years in the role, the value of the yen against the US dollar weakened by more than 45%.

To control the yen’s slide, Mr Kanda unleashed an estimated 25 trillion yen ($173bn) to support the currency, marking Japan’s first such intervention in almost a quarter of a century.

“The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are very clear. They intervene not at a particular level of the currency, but they intervene when market volatility is too much,” says economist Jesper Koll.

Japan now finds itself on the US Treasury’s watchlist of potential currency manipulators.

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But Mr Kanda argues that what he did was not market manipulation.

“Markets should move based on fundamentals but occasionally they fluctuate excessively because of speculation, and they don’t reflect fundamentals which don’t change overnight,” he says.

“When it affects ordinary consumers who have to buy food or fuel, that is when we intervened.”

While countries like the US and UK can raise interest rates to boost the value of their currencies, Japan had for years been unable to put up the cost of borrowing due to the weakness of its economy.

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Professor Seijiro Takeshita of the University of Shizuoka says Japan had no other option other than to intervene in the currency markets.

“It is not the right thing to do, but in my opinion it is the only thing they can do.”

The irony is that the yen’s value jumped in recent months without Mr Kanda or his successor lifting a finger after the Bank of Japan surprised the markets with a rate hike, and the country got a new prime minister.

So was the $170bn bid to prop up the yen a waste of money?

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No, says Mr Kanda and points out that his interventions actually made a profit although he emphasises that it was never a goal.

On whether or not his actions were ultimately successful he says: “It is not up to me to evaluate, but many say our exchange management stopped the excessive level of speculation.”

Markets or historians should be the final judges, he adds.

After decades of economic stagnation, Mr Kanda also sounds an optimistic note about Japan’s prospects.

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“We are finally seeing investments and wages rising, and we have a chance to go back to a normal market economy,” he says.

A more surprising legacy for this “humble public servant” is him becoming a star on the internet after Japanese social media users celebrated his ability to surprise financial markets with a series of AI generated dancing videos.

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Pension fund pooling model is a ‘paradigm shift’ for UK property

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Pension fund pooling model is a ‘paradigm shift’ for UK property

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OpenAI feels competitors breathing down its neck

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Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella expressed a common view in the tech industry when he said recently that large language models, the engines behind the generative AI boom, are becoming “more of a commodity”.

With a handful of leading model-builders vying for bragging rights with each new iteration of their AI, it is becoming hard to separate OpenAI’s latest GPT from Anthropic’s Claude or Google’s Gemini. 

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That makes it all the more notable that Nadella’s Microsoft has just lined up behind OpenAI’s latest funding round, boosting its valuation to $150bn. Will this moment be looked back on as the peak of generative AI mania?

Valuing any fast-growing tech company in a new market is notoriously difficult. But the extent to which generative AI has transformed the tech landscape and the speed of OpenAI’s emergence have left investors groping for yardsticks and historical comparisons.

First, consider what it has built. ChatGPT, launched nearly two years ago, became a hit consumer brand almost overnight and now claims 250mn users a week. The $20 monthly subscription fee paid by a small minority has lifted its annualised revenue to $3.6bn.

OpenAI could also be on the way to becoming a wider tech platform. Many other companies have integrated its AI into their own products and services. The tools it is building to make its technology more useful in the business world have given it a rare opening in the enterprise market.

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It is tempting to draw parallels with earlier hot start-ups, such as Google. When the search company’s stock market value first hit $150bn, in 2006, it was not the clear winner in search that it went on to become, with less than half the market. Its $10bn in revenue that year was similar to the $11bn OpenAI is reported to project for next year.

But it is here that the comparisons break down, and the scale of the challenge ahead for OpenAI becomes more apparent. Google was already churning out cash in 2006. OpenAI, without a functional business model, is on track to burn through more than $5bn of cash this year, with little prospect of stemming the flow in the short term.

Along with the sharply escalating expense of training ever-larger models, the considerable computing power needed to respond to users’ prompts will continue to weigh heavily on margins as it grows. Nor does it seem to be able to use pricing as a weapon. Although it has brought down prices rapidly to match greater efficiencies in responding to queries, the costs of querying for other LLMs that are available through the main cloud services have fallen pretty much in parallel.

That points to OpenAI’s biggest challenge: the lack of deep moats around its business, and the intense competition it faces.

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On the consumer side, Meta said last week that 500mn people are now looking at its Meta.AI at least once a month, a sign of the vast, captive markets available to OpenAI’s Big Tech rivals. Google and Meta also have ready-made advertising businesses, which have proved to be the best route to monetising large-scale digital audiences.

ChatGPT can point to a favoured position on the iPhone, thanks to a deal with Apple. But Apple is only making the chatbot available through its Siri assistant, and even then only for handling questions that are beyond the current capabilities of its own AI models — hardly a recipe for long-term success as OpenAI tries to cement its early consumer gains.

Competition on the enterprise side is also growing fast. Close ally Microsoft is diversifying away from its early reliance on OpenAI, while the capabilities of open source AI models have advanced rapidly, making them viable alternatives. Meta’s Llama hasn’t yet become “the Linux of AI”, as Mark Zuckerberg suggested last week, but the risk of commodification that Nadella warned about looms large.

At this point, it is worth remembering that generative AI is still in its infancy, and that the vast resources being poured into the technology could still hold big surprises and bring considerable unanticipated disruption.

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OpenAI’s latest models hint at the potential. Its voice-powered GPT-4o has been credited with breaking new ground in naturalistic voice interaction, potentially opening up new consumer markets to AI. And it claims its GPT-o1 is the first model capable of breaking a complex problem down and reasoning its way to a solution. That could point to a future where AI models themselves take on more of the work in a business application, sucking value out of traditional software as they become more central to working life.

It is impossible to tell how far capabilities like these will advance and whether OpenAI can maintain a meaningful edge in model-building. But with the most powerful companies in tech closing fast, investors backing the group at $150bn will need a strong stomach.

richard.waters@ft.com

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Warning to drivers as fuel prices set to soar if conflict in Middle East continues to escalate

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Warning to drivers as fuel prices set to soar if conflict in Middle East continues to escalate

FUEL prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalates, drivers were warned last night.

The cost of oil climbed by around five per cent in just two days to $76 per barrel, as Israel vowed to retaliate against Iranian missile strikes.

Drivers have been warned that petrol prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalates

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Drivers have been warned that petrol prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalatesCredit: Alamy

One option open to the Israeli military is to hit Iran’s oil refineries — which despite western sanctions still supply many countries worldwide.

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Analysts said a major escalation could take the oil price to $100 a barrel — driving up pump costs for motorists.

The warning comes at a time when petrol prices here have been falling.

They were down 6.5p a litre in September, putting £3.60 back into drivers’ pockets every time they fill up a 55-litre tank.

Petrol is now 134.9p a litre and diesel 139.5p — marking one of the biggest price drops in 24 years, the RAC says.

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A second threat to prices is the Budget on October 30.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to decide whether to keep the current fuel duty freeze, as well as a 5p reduction brought in by the Tories.

The Sun’s Keep It Down campaign has saved drivers £90billion in tax over 14 years.

AA boss Edmund King said: “Global oil prices tend to increase with any geo-political uncertainty.

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“The Government should avoid the temptation to hike fuel duty in the Budget as drivers and industry would face a double hit.”

Iran has exposed it’s hand after 180-missile blitz says expert

Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at City Index, said: “The extent of Israel’s response to Iran will influence how much geopolitical risk markets factor in. Crude oil could rise another $5 in the next few days if we see further escalation in the conflict.”

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, warned a major escalation in tensions could push oil prices to $100 a barrel.

And David Oxley, of Capital Economics, said such a rise could add 13p to the cost of a litre.

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About a fifth of global oil comes from the Gulf region.

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