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Israel presses its military advantage

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This is an audio transcript of the Rachman Review podcast episode: ‘Israel presses its military advantage’

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Gideon Rachman
Hello and welcome to the Rachman Review. I’m Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times. This week’s podcast is about Iran, Israel and the risk of all-out war in the Middle East. My guest is Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House here in London. Israeli air strikes on Lebanon are continuing, and Iran has launched a major fusillade of ballistic missiles at Israel. So what are the calculations of all sides in this conflict? And can an all-out regional war still be avoided?

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Iran has launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. The weapons lit up the skies above Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and there were frequent explosions as they were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system.

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Gideon Rachman
Israel has vowed to strike back after Iran’s missile attacks. Iran said that if that happens, it too will strike back. So we’re well into the cycle of escalation and counter-escalation with major questions about the future American involvement in the conflict. I began my conversation with Sanam Vakil by asking if she thinks the cycle of escalation can be broken.

Sanam Vakil
It all depends on where, when and how Israel will respond to Iran’s strike. If Israel is targeted and doesn’t hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, as many are suggesting, or if Israel is careful not to hit Iranian oil facilities or too much infrastructure, there could be a climbdown. And I think that’s really where we need to look in order to understand where we’re going. If civilian areas are targeted, if densely populated parts of the country are being considered in response to Iran hitting Tel Aviv, which was certainly incredibly risky and designed to be not just provocative, but to inflict real harm and damage on Israel, I think we are in risk of serious confrontation that will be hard to walk back from.

And that’s also because Israel . . . but I think most of the world is looking for an opportunity to weaken the Islamic republic. Iran for decades now has been a destabilising regional actor. Of course, it’s got its advanced nuclear program. It has recently sent ballistic missiles alongside drones to Russia. And so this is being perhaps pitched as a historic opportunity to humble the Islamic republic.

Gideon Rachman
OK. We’ll get to whether that opportunity really exists in the moment. But what kind of considerations do you think Iran was making and is making now as it attempted to respond to the almost dismantlement of Hizbollah in Lebanon and the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran? How do you think they’ve been thinking about this?

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Sanam Vakil
Well, I think it’s important to understand Iran’s position over the past year. When the horrific attacks of October 7th took place, it’s very clear now that Iran was also surprised. Iran has been a patron and a supporter of the axis of resistance groups, Hamas, Hizbollah, the Houthis, popular mobilisation forces in Iraq, as well as backing Bashar al-Assad. But it doesn’t have the command and control of all of these groups. And recently, over the past four years, since the death of the IRGC commander, Qasem Soleimani, the management and co-ordination of the axis of resistance has become much more decentralised.

So in response to the Hamas attacks on October 7th, the axis led by Hizbollah actually, decided to make this an axis issue, not just a Hamas issue. And they piled in on October 8th and began to pressure Israel with attacks that have been ongoing for the past year. And I think what became clear for Tehran is that certainly Israel has two existential issues, a Palestinian issue that it might or might not choose to resolve, but it also has an Iran issue. And the case for taking down the axis of resistance and addressing its security crisis with Iran — which is tied to the axis of resistance — has been mounting and growing for the past year.

So it comes as no surprise, I think, to key individuals in Iran that Israel is trying — and has been quite successful — in decapitating the leadership of the axis of resistance from taking out all of the, you know, rank and file and top three layers of Hizbollah’s command, also targeting Iranian facilities quite precisely in Syria, hitting the Houthis back and showcasing the breadth of Israel’s capabilities. But ultimately, what this all foreshadows is that, perhaps is an Israeli strategy designed to also send some missiles back to Tehran and make it clear that it’s not just the tentacles of the octopus that need to be cut off, but also to paraphrase the Israeli terminology, the octopus’s head.

Gideon Rachman
What is the octopus itself thinking then? Because, you know, as you say, they’ve lost key leaders, in Qasem Soleimani. Their supreme leader Khamenei is very old. There’s a relatively inexperienced new president and then there’s always this question about how much does the Iranian military make decisions on its own? Who’s making the decisions?

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Sanam Vakil
Well, Iranian decision-making, particularly on security and foreign policy issues, takes place in an institution known as the Supreme National Security Council, which is composed of the new incoming president and members of his cabinet, alongside IRGC and military leaders, representatives from the Office of the Supreme Leader. Effectively, you have the heads of the formal and informal parts of government, and they put forward recommendations that are then taken forward by the supreme leader, approved or disapproved. Over the past few months since the killing of Ismail Haniyeh — the Hamas leader in Tehran — there has been a growing debate in these circles in Iran as to whether the regime should pursue strategic patience and play the long game or push back and stop what looks like a haemorrhaging and targeting of Iranian assets and personnel across the region. And for the past few months, effectively, those in favour of patience were prevailing. But it looks like the hardliners have won over the debate.

Gideon Rachman
So the hardliners have won, but presumably even they are aware of the risks to Iran. Do you think Iran has a game plan for what happens if, I think seems likely, Israel hits back? I mean, there’s a question of how and when. But let’s say Israel goes for a fairly maximalist response. How much does Iran have left in terms of escalation?

Sanam Vakil
Iran is in a very difficult and defensive position. It doesn’t have the military capacity and conventional capabilities to fight back against Israel that has a quantitative military edge across the entire Middle East. And we should remember that Israel has the full backing and support of the United States that has also mobilised additional forces into the region. So if there is a strategy, it’s very hard to see Iran hit back, I think, deliberately to save its reputation, to also show the axis that it does have skin in the game and try and reassert some red lines. It did say immediately after the attack was finished last night that that’s it for Tehran. But it’s very clear that this is not where it ends. Israel is certainly going to respond and make it clear that if Iran counter-responds to an Israeli attack, that this is gonna get very ugly.

Gideon Rachman
We talked about Iran’s weakness and obviously, Israel’s feeling confident and militant at the moment. But there must be risks for Israel as well. I mean, so far have knocked all these rockets down and the Iron Dome was working well. But these are ballistic missiles, hundreds of them coming at Israel. And the likelihood of one of them striking central Tel Aviv at some point must be fairly high.

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Sanam Vakil
Certainly. And Iran provided very little warning. And these ballistic missiles move extremely fast. It takes about 12 minutes, I’ve heard, for them to move from Tehran to Tel Aviv. So this was not like the attack that we saw in April where Iran telegraphed and telephoned everyone and sent very slow-moving surface-to-surface and cruise missiles and drones into Israel. They didn’t give too much warning and time for Centcom to create a joint command structure where other Arab states could also participate. I think we’re in a very difficult moment. And clearly Iran has decided that while maybe there is no strategic off-ramp, by responding, perhaps there is an avenue where there can be greater momentum and push for a ceasefire in some of the other frontiers. Perhaps Arab states can play a diplomatic role?

Gideon Rachman
Arab states? But they have terrible relations with the Arab states.

Sanam Vakil
They don’t have good relations with their neighbours. I think that’s very fair to say. But Iran today is less isolated than it was a number of years ago. It has restored diplomatic ties with almost all regional countries, and so there are now more interlocutors that can prevail upon Tehran, but also pass messages back and forth to bring down the temperature.

Gideon Rachman
And we mentioned obviously, the US plays an absolutely critical role in all this. And, you know, over the years there’s been speculation not just that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, but that America might. But, you know, I’m sure we’ve talked to many of the same people over the last year. It’s been pretty clear to me that the Biden administration does not want a major escalation in the Middle East, was urging Israel not to go full force after Hizbollah, but now we are where we are. Biden has come out saying they’re fully behind Israel. How do you think the Americans are seeing it? May they be coming around to the Israeli point of view that this actually is a unique opportunity to take out the axis of resistance, to strike a real blow at the Islamic republic?

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Sanam Vakil
I think this is a really concerning moment, not just for the limited US engagement and the metastasising conflicts in the region, but also for regional states as well, who are deeply concerned that the US seems relatively absent, preoccupied obviously with its own election and domestic problems. And President Biden has taken an approach which has been very clear to defend Israel’s security and clearly will not put any further handcuffs on Israel in advance of this US election. The war in Gaza has already caused enough upheaval on US campuses, and clearly Middle East politics have become very partisan in the US on both sides. And so they don’t want this conflict to be a cause for Kamala Harris to lose this election, for example.

But I think we’re in a real existential moment, because if Israel does decide to hit some nuclear facilities, this is where the war will get out of hand, I would imagine, and Iran will escalate. And Iran has made it very clear that if certain infrastructure, from its oil refineries, let alone its nuclear program, are targeted, Iran will export the conflict beyond Iran and not just hit US bases, I would imagine, in Syria and Iraq, but also target its neighbours, Gulf Arab infrastructure as a way of pressuring the US as well as other countries.

Gideon Rachman
Wouldn’t that kind of be signing their own death warrant? If they attack the US directly or they attack the Saudis, then all these countries will say, well, now we have carte blanche to go after the Islamic republic.

Sanam Vakil
I’m with you. It is a death warrant. And that’s why we’re in this dangerous cycle and it doesn’t seem we have any off-ramps. There is a lot of talk taking place on social media, in the media by political leaders also, that seem to be indulging this war footing from Israel without thinking about the consequences.

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Gideon Rachman
So what are the consequences? Because I guess, you know, if I were an Israeli, I’ll say, well, the consequence we’re talking about is the overthrow of this regime that none of us like anyway. So that’s good, isn’t it?

Sanam Vakil
I wish it was so simple, Gideon. The last time the international community supported the overthrow of a regime, it didn’t work very well. And 21 years on, from that war, the US is in a very different place. It’s diminished. It has domestic demands and priorities. I think it’s unrealistic for us to get behind this notion of regime change. I can’t imagine western states supporting this in today’s climate. I also can’t imagine regional states supporting this in this climate. So I think we have to have the courage to say that regime change is not on offer. What is on offer? If there’s going to be a cycle of escalation, it has to lead to a cycle of de-escalation. And that’s gonna require clear red lines, deterrence and negotiation, not regime change. Regime change for what? For whom? By whom? It seems really lofty and unrealistic.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah, and in fact, now we’re talking, I remember, I think correctly, that Phil Gordon — who is Harris’s national security adviser — wrote a book with the subtitle The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East. So there are Americans who’ve lived through the experiences of Iraq, Afghanistan, etc, and who, at least in theory, are resistant to this notion of regime change. But one sort of feels the train’s rolling a bit towards a very radical attempt to take down the Islamic republic.

Sanam Vakil
I would just say one additional point, that there is clear dissatisfaction, opposition across Iran towards its leadership. We’ve seen that through so many rounds of very fierce and powerful protests from within Iranian society that is organic. There is a legitimacy crisis and Iran’s leadership know it. But wars bring out complicated narratives and complicated emotions. And there is a scenario where Iranian people will rally around the flag in the same way that Lebanese people who are seeing their country face another war with Israel, another occupation by Israel, potentially long-term, who dislike Hizbollah, who see Hizbollah as a destructive destabilising force within the Lebanese system, are fiercely nationalistic in this moment. And that’s important to also consider.

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Gideon Rachman
One other major development in a week of incredibly dramatic developments was the death of Hassan Nasrallah, killed by the Israelis. How much can Hizbollah, do you think, function without its long-standing leader?

Sanam Vakil
The death of Hassan Nasrallah is hugely significant. I think he provided a lot of moral but also symbolic leadership for Hizbollah for a number of decades now. And he was particularly close to the Iranian leadership and particularly close to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. That closeness shouldn’t be underestimated because actually, after the death of Qasem Soleimani as well, Hizbollah took an even more important role for Iran’s management of the axis of resistance. Hizbollah was the partner and the co-ordinator in chief in bringing the groups together and coordinating operations around the region.

So his death is a massive blow. Certainly, I think the organisation had prepared for scenarios where he might have been killed along the way. I think the bigger challenge though is that his death comes alongside the killing of three layers of Hizbollah’s leadership. Certainly, there will be a long list of people who will fill shoes of those that have been killed, but they’re untested, they’re unknown and perhaps more ideological than Nasrallah himself. Believe it or not, he was seen to be relatively pragmatic after being the leader of Hizbollah for so long. So this is what’s dangerous about this moment.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah. Let’s finish in the moment on Lebanon. We shouldn’t forget because that’s where the actual war is currently going on, as well as Gaza. But thinking of other things that might happen in this military conflict, sort of regime change, etc. Because Iran doesn’t have great options. But one of the things they’ve discussed over the years is shutting down the oil flows from the west. And are they capable of doing that, at least for a while, because that would obviously disrupt energy markets and cause the petrol price to soar just ahead of the US presidential election?

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Sanam Vakil
I mean, there are, I think, a number of scenarios on offer and we’re going to hear a lot of them trotted out over the coming days. But attacks on ships, you know, that’s certainly been under way, led by the Houthis in the Red Sea. I think attacks on infrastructure across the region, oil refineries and the like, pipelines, desalination plants, any kind of infrastructure can be targeted by Iran, but also by the axis of resistance. And it’s important to remember that the axis of resistance is down. It’s certainly degraded, but it hasn’t been destroyed, not in Gaza, not in Lebanon and not in other parts of the Middle East just yet.

Gideon Rachman
Israel is currently at war in Lebanon and in Gaza. Looking at the Lebanese conflict, there are already, according to Lebanese government, you know, thousands of people dead, a million people displaced. Do we have any sense of how that can be put back together again? I mean, is there any possibility that this is, as the Israelis say, a limited ground incursion and that they will feel they’ve done enough damage to Hizbollah and they’ll pull out?

Sanam Vakil
I’m not terribly optimistic, unfortunately. I think there was a moment of opportunity as Israel was foreshadowing a ground invasion and Nasrallah was killed for the Lebanese government to showcase unity, elect a president — they’ve had a caretaker government for quite some time — and try and rebuild a state that hasn’t been cohesive or operational and lobby the international community for a ceasefire.

Instead, I think we’re in a bit of a rinse and repeat moment. I’m deeply worried that what Israel is trying to execute in Lebanon will look to a certain degree like what we’ve seen in Gaza. Mind you, there’s only supposedly one battalion in, but that Israel will occupy a good portion of southern Lebanon, obviously with the aim of achieving UN Security Council Resolution 1701, creating a buffer zone and making sure all threats are pushed back to the Litani river. But that would mean the long-term Israeli presence in another country, breaches of sovereignty and, of course, deep political and economic damage. Let’s not forget the huge loss of life, displacement for Lebanese citizens that nobody is really discussing.

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Gideon Rachman
Yeah. And the other thing that people have stopped discussing for a moment is Gaza, which presumably, the conflict continues there will be at a slightly lower intensity, but it’s not over yet by any means, is it?

Sanam Vakil
Absolutely. We are at the tragic one-year milestone of the Hamas attacks and the war. And nobody is talking about Gaza, which I think is really troubling and scary because there we have seen millions displaced, again, 41,000 people killed by official count, and no plan, no discussion of a ceasefire, let alone what comes next. Arab states are trying to get ahead of it, trying to reinvigorate some discussion. The Jordanian president last Friday at the UN again tried to challenge Israel to think about the future, dangling the promise of regional integration and the promise of peace in the region, if and only if they could consider the prospect of Palestinians and Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu spoke at the United Nations and didn’t mention the word Palestine once, and I think that is striking. And that in itself is the problem. Israel has not achieved security through a military conflict. And over and over again, decade after decade, it has proven its military prowess. It has quantitative military edge. But what it doesn’t have is security. And that can only be granted through negotiations, through a peace process, through investment in another way of thinking. And that still hasn’t come to light one year on.

Gideon Rachman
And in fact, if anything, it seems to be going the other way. I mean, the peace party in Israel or suddenly the two-state solution party is more or less collapsed, doesn’t it?

Sanam Vakil
Yes, there is no discussion. At least openly, in the public domain, about a two-state solution. There is no discussion about a solution. And that’s shocking but important to lay out there. Israel is one year on addressing its security, and Netanyahu has tried to rehabilitate himself and in fact, he has to a certain degree. And he’s brought more parties into his coalition. And he looks like he’s personally on stronger footing.

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But is Israel more secure today? I think not. That can only be achieved not through the barrel of a gun or through missiles as wars are executed today. Again, that can only happen through the hard work at a negotiating table and acknowledging that they have a domestic Palestinian security crisis that needs to be resolved. It’s worthwhile noting that there was an attack in Jaffa on Tuesday in Israel where Israeli citizens were killed. And this is not going away. You can degrade and decapitate Hizbollah. You can kill Hamas’s leadership. What you’re not doing is closing down the conflicts, addressing the structural challenges across the region that would give people hope, avenue for a better political future, economic prosperity. And that comes through self-determination, and that comes through the empowerment of people on the ground, not through a militarisation of conflict.

Gideon Rachman
Last question, though. I don’t think the US government would really disagree with what you just laid out. That more or less is their position, and yet they seem curiously powerless for the world’s sole superpower. I mean, it’s Israel that’s driving events, really, not the Biden administration.

Sanam Vakil
I think that most governments theoretically agree with this scenario. The reality is, of course, that it’s very hard to impose these solutions on your partners and allies. The US, of course, is less influential or unwilling to be more influential in this moment, as we previously discussed. But I think that political settlements are hard to achieve. Hard to achieve in four-year electoral cycles. They require strategy, they require investment, they require partnership and sustained co-operation. And that’s hard to sell, I think, in the west, in the UK, in Europe and in the United States. Everyone is looking to Washington, hoping that the next US president will take a bigger role, will take the lead in trying to solve some of these conflicts. But I don’t think that Washington alone can bear that burden. We have seen the US pull back and reprioritise, and it’s calling on its allies and partners to share the burden. And I think that the time is now for burden sharing.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Gideon Rachman
That was Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, ending this edition of the Rachman Review. Thanks for listening and please join me again next week.

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Business

Meet Machado-Muñoz – Madrid’s hottest new design duo

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It’s a sleepy August morning when I meet husband-and-wife design duo Mafalda Muñoz and Gonzalo Machado at their gallery Machado-Muñoz in Madrid’s Justicia, the fashionable barrio with a similar feel to Manhattan’s West Village. 

Muñoz and Machado met as teenagers in Madrid. Together for 16 years, they have been married for 11 and are parents to two children. They share a passion for design that was nurtured throughout their childhoods: Muñoz’s late father Paco established his design firm Casa & Jardin in 1951 (at its zenith it utilised the skills of more than 300 artisans) and eight years later founded the furniture company Darro. Many consider him to be the founder of modern Spanish design.

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A work by British sculptor Rebecca Warren (far left), a CMS Editions plaster coffee table and Audoux Minet armchairs in the gallery
A work by British sculptor Rebecca Warren (far left), a CMS Editions plaster coffee table and Audoux Minet armchairs in the gallery © Giulio Ghirardi
Muñoz’s father, designer Paco Muñoz, in the 1980s
Muñoz’s father, designer Paco Muñoz, in the 1980s

The gallery opened in May with a soft-launch party: it’s what Muñoz calls “an evolution” of the gallery of the same name the pair launched 10 years ago with a focus on contemporary design. The couple have a close, almost symbiotic connection, and there’s also a lot of laughter. “We are together on everything,” says Muñoz. “My parents used to work together too, so it was kind of natural.” The original gallery was about to move to a new city space when the Covid-19 pandemic struck and it was forced to close. But this did not stall the couple’s creative output, and their interior-design business Casa Muñoz has continued to thrive. Among its projects are the apartment of Spanish model Eugenia Silva, an Ibiza townhouse, the restaurant at the Fondation Beyeler art museum in Switzerland and the Casa Taberna hotel and restaurant in Pedraza, Spain, which is run by Muñoz’s half-sister, Samantha Vallejo-Nágera. 

A Raymond Subes armchair and a 1930s Danish vitirine, in which are Verre d’Onge handblown vases
A Raymond Subes armchair and a 1930s Danish vitrine, in which are Verre d’Onge handblown vases © Giulio Ghirardi
BL001 light by Michael Anastassiades, flanked by 1980s sculptures by Moisès Villèlia
BL001 light by Michael Anastassiades, flanked by 1980s sculptures by Moisès Villèlia © Giulio Ghirardi

Reopening the gallery after a five-year hiatus has allowed the pair to reflect on their singular perspective. “We feel more mature now,” says Muñoz. Machado adds: “At the time, we were fascinated with the contemporary design world. We wanted to give a voice to Spanish design. Now we want to be without restriction.” The curation at their space spans 20th-century classical design, antiquities, art and objets. “We feel that this is the kind of gallery we would like to visit. A place where you can be amused by an artefact, an artwork or a piece of furniture,” says Machado. “It’s more about our point of view on the arts.” 

That viewpoint has garnered an illustrious following. “Gonzalo and Mafalda have an extraordinary sense of taste and definitive style, whether related to their work, their home or how they entertain guests,” says Marta Ortega Pérez, the non-executive chair of Inditex, Zara’s parent company, who is a friend of the couple. “I never fail to be blown away by their exquisite personal touch and encyclopedic knowledge of art, furniture and all aspects related to interiors, as well as their individualistic flair.”

Darro furniture in an Ibiza townhouse
Darro furniture in an Ibiza townhouse © Giulio Ghirardi

This flair is evident as we walk through the gallery, a peaceful, inspiring but very comfortable space. We sink into woven cord Audoux Minet armchairs to appreciate the Machado- and Muñoz-designed furniture, placed beside both originals and re-editions by Paco Muñoz. Beside us is a vintage Danish cabinet displaying handblown glass orbs and a simple lamp, which catches my eye. Muñoz explains its provenance: “It’s a very important lamp by Paul Dupré-Lafon that was designed for Hermès. It’s one of the few with the original parchment lampshade.” The couple see the gallery as a platform to source furnishings for their interiors projects. Muñoz continues: “We can buy things for the gallery that we can later use.” 

The front half of the gallery is dedicated to rotating exhibitions. Currently displayed is the hand-carved work of Moisès Villèlia, the late Catalan sculptor known for experimenting with bamboo, and lighting by London-based designer Michael Anastassiades. His limited-edition piece from the Cheerfully Optimistic About the Future exhibition at the ICA in Milan works harmoniously with Villèlia’s mobile sculptures. “It’s different uses of the same material and we felt they work together incredibly well,” Muñoz explains.

Pieces by Catalan sculptor Moisès Villèlia flank a doorway in the gallery
Pieces by Catalan sculptor Moisès Villèlia flank a doorway in the gallery © Giulio Ghirardi
A sconce by French sculptor Philippe Anthonioz, a work (behind glass) by the Spanish textile artist Aurèlia Muñoz and, beneath it, a revolving bookcase by Claudio Salocchi
A sconce by French sculptor Philippe Anthonioz, a work (behind glass) by the Spanish textile artist Aurèlia Muñoz and, beneath it, a revolving bookcase by Claudio Salocchi © Giulio Ghirardi

Anastassiades refers to the pair as “passionate, absolute perfectionists”. Recalling his first meeting with them in 2015 when he was invited to participate in their inaugural exhibition, he says: “I knew from the start that what they intended to deliver was going to be of exceptional standard. We have continued to work together ever since.”

As we continue our tour, Muñoz pauses at a re-edition of her father’s stainless-steel shelves. Paco Muñoz’s legacy, an archive of more than 20,000 designs, is a frequent source of inspiration. They also have plans to relaunch the brand Darro in its entirety in the near future. Several of the craftspeople who made her father’s furniture now make the couple’s bespoke furniture. “The upholsterer we currently work with made my cradle,” Muñoz says.

The gallery’s façade
The gallery’s façade © Giulio Ghirardi

With the studio and gallery, the pair’s output is prolific: they juggle 10 or so interior projects at any one time. Their time is split between two offices, one in Madrid and the other in Gstaad, Switzerland. And they keep expanding their interests. They are currently working with Belgian lighting brand Authentage on a line of architectural lights. “And we want to do faucets next,” says Machado, hinting they also have interior work in the pipeline from Madison Avenue to Madrid. 

The duo, however, bring their own talents to each project. Muñoz is a skilled interior architect, while Machado, who also studied interior design, is a successful photographer who honed his skills as an assistant for Mario Testino before establishing a career shooting editorial for magazines. He acts as the studio’s creative visualiser. “Gonzalo has special vision,” says Muñoz. “It’s super-intuitive and very impressive.”

“I’m always framing. It’s a disease,” laughs Machado, who enjoys work assignments but finds photographing his own work “torture”. His perfectionism means he sometimes refuses to release the images. Thankfully, Muñoz is more than understanding: “We think precision is one of the most important things when you create.” 

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Abrdn Adviser hires chief technology and product officer

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Abrdn Adviser hires chief technology and product officer

Abrdn Adviser has today (3 October) announced the appointment of Derek Smith to the newly created role of chief technology & product officer.

The CTPO role will bring together Abrdn Adviser’s technology and product teams.

Smith will be responsible for executing the technology strategy and ensuring the continuous enhancement and scalability of the Abrdn Adviser business.

He will join in November from Morningstar Wealth, where he is currently chief technology officer, a role he has held for the past two years.

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His previous roles include head of engineering at Virgin Money and Lloyds Banking Group.

Smith’s appointment follows a busy few weeks on the recruitment front for Abrdn Adviser.

Last month, it announced that industry veteran Verona Kenny will join as chief distribution officer and Louise Williams as chief financial officer.

Abrdn Adviser CEO, Noel Butwell, said: “Our ambition is to deliver a market-leading proposition with exceptional client service and we’ve set out to create the best senior leadership team in the market to achieve this.

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“Technology is a critical enabler in realising our goals and aligning to continuously evolving customer needs, and Derek brings a wealth of experience to the role of chief technology & product officer.

“He will lead the implementation of our strategy and next phases of platform upgrades as we embark on our next stage of growth and evolution during a period of disruption and digital transformation in the market.”

Smith added: “I am thrilled to join Abrdn Adviser at such a pivotal time.

“My passion lies in leading the creation of innovative digital solutions and journeys that empower financial advisers to deliver high-quality, personalised service to their clients.

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“Together, we will build solutions with service excellence and interconnectivity at their heart, supporting advisers to navigate and thrive in the ever-evolving financial landscape with confidence.”

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I visited the underwhelming ‘magic bench’ that’s now a 5-star tourist attraction – to see what all the fuss was about

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The 'Magic Bench' is located by Bewl Water and is tucked next to the bushes

TOURIST attraction owners and hoteliers break their backs to get spotless reviews online, often go above and beyond to please demanding customers.

But it turns out all you really have to do is…. nothing. Because there’s a place in Wadhurst, East Sussex, with a faultless run of five-star reviews – called simply the ‘Magic Bench’.

The 'Magic Bench' is located by Bewl Water and is tucked next to the bushes

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The ‘Magic Bench’ is located by Bewl Water and is tucked next to the bushesCredit: Katrina Turrill
The bench doesn't look too special, slightly weathered, but it's in a prime spot for viewing the water

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The bench doesn’t look too special, slightly weathered, but it’s in a prime spot for viewing the waterCredit: Katrina Turrill

The pictures online show an ordinary-looking bench, a memorial one, and one that’s perhaps seen better days.

But bizarrely, it has five stars on Google and gleaming reviews spanning back three years.

Is this a targeted campaign by a bunch of locals or an in-joke among mates? Quite possibly, but three years is an impressive length of time to keep a campaign going.

Someone who visited this year wrote: “The most magical bench I’ve ever sat upon. Beautiful view, lovely serene setting and magic all round!”

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They visited on a weekday, experienced no wait time, but did recommend reservation.

Other visitors wrote: “If sitting is your thing, then this bench is a must.”

Also: “A wonderful place! An absolutely magical view over the lake! The highlight in the UK.”

And: “Believe the hype! Truly magical!”

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Baffled by such positive words, I had to go check out the bench for myself, to see if it truly was magical or just an online hoax.

I live in a village named one of the best places to live in the UK

The bench can be found by Bewl Water – a location attraction which is a great place for walks or water activities.

The best way I found to get to the bench was to park at The Old Vine pub and to follow the track there leading down to the reservoir.

The walk takes about 20 minutes, and once you reach the circular track that goes around the water and start walking anti-clockwise, you’ll find a small opening between the bushes and trees.

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It was easy to find and a welcome sight after a tricky walk down in wellies.

I took a seat and waited to see if some ethereal feeling came over me.

It didn’t.

But with no other benches nearby, and after a fast-paced walk down to find it, it was a great place to perch and rest and admire the view.

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The bench is tucked in close to the bushes, so feels very much secluded.

And the view is amazing overlooking the still stretch of water, with nothing but the sound of birds and the wind rustling through the leaves…

Maybe this is what everyone meant when they described the bench as “magic”.

Whether the online reviews are a joke or actually real I think is yet to be determined.

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Nonetheless, if you’re looking for some beautiful walks and cosy pubs to warm up in this Autumn, I definitely recommend visiting Wadhurst – named ‘Best Place to live in the UK’ by The Sunday Times last year.

Equally great places near Wadhurst to visit

Tunbridge Wells

A 17 minute drive away from Wadhurst is Tunbridge Wells – the closest big town if you’re looking for more shops and restaurants. The Pantiles walkway is an iconic feature in the town, famous for its Georgian architecture and independent shops and restaurants.

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Hastings

Not far away is the seaside town of Hastings. You can hop on the train at Wadhurst and it’s at the end of the line (about 30 minutes away). Hastings’ medieval Old Town is a main attraction, with its narrow streets, antique shops, boutiques and cafes. The beach is pebbly, but the perfect place to sit down and enjoy some fish and chips.

Bodiam

Less than half an hour away is Bodiam, a small village but with a rather large castle. The castle is owned by the National Trust, and it another good place to head for an Autumn walk. If you’re looking for a bite to eat, there’s the Castle Inn across the road or The Hub @ Quarry Farm, which has the Kent & East Sussex Railway nearby. 

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The bench offers incredible views of the water at Bewl Water and is a lovely quiet spot

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The bench offers incredible views of the water at Bewl Water and is a lovely quiet spotCredit: Katrina Turrill
The bench is definitely a welcome place to rest after a long walk

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The bench is definitely a welcome place to rest after a long walkCredit: Katrina Turrill

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Conservatives should pick James Cleverly. Here’s why they won’t

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Good morning. The answer to who the Conservatives should pick as their leader is, I think, screamingly obvious.

There’s one candidate in the race who has held two of the great offices of state, is one of the few politicians of either party to emerge from the Home Office with his reputation as a competent administrator and effective secretary of state unscathed; has shown an ability to get through tough media rounds under a series of leaders; has throughout this leadership campaign correctly identified that the first thing the Conservative party needs to fix is that too often it sounds weird, angry and unpleasant; and recognises that the party first of all needs to start sounding as if it likes the country it seeks to govern.

There’s one candidate who more than any other is singled out by politicians outside the Conservative party as the one they think would pose the greatest challenge to them.

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The superior candidate in this contest — James Cleverly — further underlined his credentials by delivering the standout speech of the conference season yesterday. It electrified and energised previously gloomy MPs on the party’s moderate wing. It won the largest standing ovation at the conference and improved his odds. And, as both our reporters and the BBC’s World At One programme found, it shifted the opinion of some activists watching in the hall towards Cleverly.

And yet, and yet . . . I still feel as if this contest is ultimately going to be won by someone else, in large part because it’s such a familiar movie. A political party is turfed out of office after an economic shock. The party, given a choice between one of its more distinguished senior members and a candidate who tells it that its defeat was down to having been insufficiently radical, chooses the latter, then loses the next general election.

It’s an old, old, old story in British politics. There are two candidates offering that myth in this contest, and I suspect that history will repeat itself this time. Some thoughts on why that myth is just that — a myth — below.

Inside Politics is edited by Harvey Nriapia today. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

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Familiar fictions

In her speech to the Conservative party conference yesterday, Kemi Badenoch blamed the party’s defeat on having allowed itself to be bound “by a Treasury whose rules were written by Gordon Brown and a legal system re-engineered by Tony Blair”, adding for good measure that “when we went after Labour votes . . . we lost our own!”

There are a number of holes in this theory. The first is that the Treasury’s “rules” were quite extensively rewritten by George Osborne. He created the Office for Budget Responsibility, and by changing a lot of departmental budget lines from annual managed expenditure (AME) to departmental expenditure limits (DEL), he changed the relationship between the Treasury and spending departments in a number of important ways. It just isn’t right to say that the Treasury in 2024, or the UK’s broader fiscal arrangements, have not changed since 2010.

And the fruits of Osborne’s changes are clear to see: as chancellor, he successfully unpicked a great number of Brown’s tax rises and defunded, scrapped and rolled back much of New Labour’s policy programme. Theresa May, Andrew Lansley, Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling and Michael Gove oversaw significant changes in how policing, immigration, health, welfare policy, criminal justice and education were delivered and managed.

Opinions will vary about the effectiveness of these reforms. Personally, I think some were brilliant and others disastrous, but that’s irrelevant because regardless of what you think about the record of these Cameron-era ministers, what you can’t dispute is that a) they happened, and that b) with the exception of what Michael Gove did at the Department of Education, they can hardly be seen as continuity Blairite or New Labour measures. They were significant, far-reaching and in many cases quite rightwing policies.

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The same apparently ‘leftwing’ fiscal and legal framework doesn’t seem to have stopped the Conservatives implementing Brexit, a hammer blow to an essential aspect of the Blair-Brown economic model.

Just as importantly, it is not clear when this era in which the Conservative party “went after Labour votes and lost its own” happened. In 2010 and 2015, David Cameron made a conscious effort to woo Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. In 2010 he captured more additional constituencies in a single night than any Conservative leader since Stanley Baldwin and won the first Tory parliamentary majority since John Major in 1992. In 2019, after Boris Johnson embraced net zero and promised to spend more on the public services — both measures designed to woo Labour voters — he won the party’s biggest majority since 1987.

When you look at what harmed the Conservatives, it was a combination of personal failures, the fallout from Partygate and the conscious political decision to move to the right, not to the left. The Truss experiment destroyed the party’s reputation for economic competence. Then Rishi Sunak, having enjoyed political success with a series of centrist budgets as chancellor, led the Conservatives into an election in which he distanced himself from Boris Johnson’s pledges on net zero and public services — going into an election promising further tax cuts funded by a squeeze on government spending. His opening offer in that campaign was to bring back national service — a sop to Reform voters, not Labour ones. The result was the worst defeat in Tory party history.

It is just wrong to say that the Conservatives did not make big and significant changes to the Blair-Brown model of governing, and it is wrong to say that the party lost because it wasn’t rightwing enough.

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But defeated political parties tend to respond well to this argument, a slicker version of which is on offer from Robert Jenrick, the candidate most likely to benefit from it. Is a strong speech from James Cleverly enough to convince enough Tory members not to do what so many defeated parties have done over the years? Over the course of the next month, we’ll find out.

Now try this

(Georgina) One of the little, bonus pleasures of an author talk is getting to hear how other readers perceive their work and worlds. And speaking last night at Foyles, novelist Alan Hollinghurst said two close friends were deeply split over his protagonist in the Line of Beauty: Nick Guest, a gay graduate who moves into the home of a Conservative MP in the 1980s. One “absolutely detested [Nick] from the first page” while another “got behind him the whole way”. So it was fascinating to hear Hollinghurst, launching his book Our Evenings, discuss how this delights him — and his hope for readers to experience shifts in mood or genre in one story, often from the comic to the dark.

(Stephen) I’m horrified to learn that there are people who don’t side with Nick! What a terrific novel The Line of Beauty is.

Top stories today

  • Knight-errant | Green energy magnate Dale Vince, who has donated more than £5mn to the Labour party, has been accused by his estranged wife of seeking to finalise their divorce in “haste” because he expects to receive an honour from Downing Street and wants to deprive her of a title.

  • Delay repay | The prime minister has repaid £6,000 of gifts and commissioned a new set of principles on hospitality to be published in the updated ministerial code, following a raft of revelations about clothing and other donations to senior cabinet members.

  • Conservative crossroads | Tory think-tanks are split over how to survive now the Conservatives have been ousted: should they try to shape the party in opposition or pivot to Labour?

  • Fiscal rule-breaking | The chancellor faces an economy mired in low growth, ballooning national debt and creaking infrastructure. But she’s also up against her own, self-imposed fiscal rules. Can Labour find a way out of its own Budget traps?

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Warning to self-employed homeowners as lenders make major change to mortgage rules in days

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Warning to self-employed homeowners as lenders make major change to mortgage rules in days

SELF-employed workers have been urged to submit their tax returns now if they are looking to move home in the coming weeks or months.

From October 5, the majority of mortgage lenders will ask for 2023/24 tax returns as proof of earnings.

Lenders will want 2023/34 tax returns from October 5

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Lenders will want 2023/34 tax returns from October 5Credit: Alamy

HMRC doesn’t require the 23/34 year’s tax return to be submitted until the end of January 2025, meaning that many workers will not have yet completed it.

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“Lenders see documentation over 18 months old as too historic to accept,” said Chris Sykes, technical director at mortgage broker Private Finance.

This means that anything relating to the end of the tax year April 5 2022/23 becomes out of date from October 5,

Chris said self-employed borrowers get caught out by this every year as the date isn’t advertised by lenders.

He added: “This will affect any self employed borrower looking to buy their first home, move house or remortgage over the next few months.

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“Unlike an employed borrower just on a salary, a new year’s self employment figures can significantly change the borrowing upwards or downwards.”

Nicholas Mendes​​​​, technical manager at broker John Charcol agreed that this is a big issue for self-employed borrowers and they often oly become aware when starting the mortgage application process which can then create delays.

He said: “We see this issue arise quite frequently with self-employed clients—many are unaware that, even though HMRC gives them until January 2025 to file their 2023/2024 tax returns, lenders may not accept their older 2022/2023 tax returns after October 5 of this year.

“This mismatch in timelines often catches applicants off guard, leading to unexpected delays or issues in securing a mortgage.

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“It’s a significant challenge because while the HMRC deadlines are designed to be lenient, lenders operate on much tighter expectations regarding financial documentation.”

If you can’t submit your tax return until later in the year, self-employed borrowers need to race against the clock to get a mortgage application in before lenders start rejecting their 2022/23 return.

Chris said there are some exceptions as a few lenders have a slightly longer window – but these are usually specialist lenders.

Specialist lenders often charge higher rates than mainstream lenders which means borrowers could end up paying more for their mortgage than they would otherwise.

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The deadline for registering for a tax return for the first time for the 2023/34 year is also October 5.

There’s no penalty for registering after this, but if you haven’t signed up, filed your tax return, and paid your bill by January 31 you will be fined.

How to get a mortgage when you’re self-employed

Self-employed people can sometimes find it harder to get a mortgage as income can be more changeable than when you’re employed.

You will usually need at least two years of accounts and lenders will use these figures when deciding how big the mortgage offer will be.

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Chris added: “We more often than not find self employed people don’t understand how a lender will look at their income, many think they are judged on their turnover when they are judged on their profit.”

Lenders may want to see more evidence of your income since you don’t have an employer to back you up.

This means all your accounts will need to be in order. It can be worth using an accountant if you don’t already to help you do this.

Lenders like to see consistent profits, and consistent earnings levels where possible. If there are fluctuations it needs to be understood why that is the case.

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Keeping your financial documentation up to date can significantly increase your chances of a smooth mortgage application process and help avoid unnecessary stress or delays.

An independent mortgage broker can help advise on the process and give you an idea of any additional documentation you may need to get your application through.

In some cases, self-employed workers might find they need a bigger deposit and a strong credit score to get a home loan.

How to get the best deal on your mortgage

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IF you’re looking for a traditional type of mortgage, getting the best rates depends entirely on what’s available at any given time.

There are several ways to land the best deal.

Usually the larger the deposit you have the lower the rate you can get.

If you’re remortgaging and your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) has changed, you’ll get access to better rates than before.

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Your LTV will go down if your outstanding mortgage is lower and/or your home’s value is higher.

A change to your credit score or a better salary could also help you access better rates.

And if you’re nearing the end of a fixed deal soon it’s worth looking for new deals now.

You can lock in current deals sometimes up to six months before your current deal ends.

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Leaving a fixed deal early will usually come with an early exit fee, so you want to avoid this extra cost.

But depending on the cost and how much you could save by switching versus sticking, it could be worth paying to leave the deal – but compare the costs first.

To find the best deal use a mortgage comparison tool to see what’s available.

You can also go to a mortgage broker who can compare a much larger range of deals for you.

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Some will charge an extra fee but there are plenty who give advice for free and get paid only on commission from the lender.

You’ll also need to factor in fees for the mortgage, though some have no fees at all.

You can add the fee – sometimes more than £1,000 – to the cost of the mortgage, but be aware that means you’ll pay interest on it and so will cost more in the long term.

You can use a mortgage calculator to see how much you could borrow.

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Remember you’ll have to pass the lender’s strict eligibility criteria too, which will include affordability checks and looking at your credit file.

You may also need to provide documents such as utility bills, proof of benefits, your last three month’s payslips, passports and bank statements.

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Jupiter poaches team from rival Origin as part of push into global equities

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Asset manager Jupiter has poached a team of fund managers overseeing £800mn of global equities from a smaller rival in a bid to cut its reliance on UK stocks, which have fallen out of favour in recent years.

The FTSE 250 asset manager has recruited the investment team from Origin, a London-based investment boutique focused on global equities, including emerging markets. As part of the deal, about £800mn of assets will be transferred to Jupiter.

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The move comes as Jupiter battles to cut costs and widen its range of assets. Like its mid-sized UK rivals, Jupiter’s business model has been undermined by the rise of cheaper, passive investing as well as UK investors wanting to diversify out of the London market.

The £800mn of assets Jupiter is acquiring as part of the Origin deal include funds from institutions in Europe, Canada, and Australia.

The Origin team joining Jupiter is led by Tarlock Randhawa and manages global emerging markets strategies as well as global smaller companies funds and international stocks. Origin was bought in 2011 by US firm Principal, which runs more than $500bn in assets.

Kiran Nandra, head of equities at Jupiter, said the deal meant Jupiter could start offering funds focused on global smaller companies while boosting its emerging markets exposure. Origin’s Randhawa said “the transition for our existing clients will be seamless”.

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The decision to recruit the Origin team comes as Nick Payne, Jupiter’s lead investment manager for global emerging market equities, plans to leave the asset manager.

Matthew Beesley, chief executive of Jupiter, told the Financial Times over the summer that he was seeking to make “bolt-on” acquisitions but ruled out larger deals.

Jupiter manages about £50bn in assets, of which £42bn is on behalf of individual investors.

The asset manager, which counts Silchester among its largest shareholders, acquired Merian Global Investors in 2020 for £370mn under Jupiter’s previous chief executive Andrew Formica.

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One of Jupiter’s top fund managers, Ben Whitmore, is set to leave at the end of the month. Whitmore, who was managing about £10bn for Jupiter, is leaving to set up his own firm.

Jupiter has poached Alex Savvides from JO Hambro Capital Management to manage Jupiter’s UK Special Situations fund.

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