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‘She was singing nursery rhymes… I kissed her goodnight. The next morning she was gone’

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Manchester Evening News

Willow Poppy Forest’s parents have been left without answers after her tragic, sudden death

A couple who tragically lost their 17-month-old daughter without any prior warning signs have spoken of their struggle to find “answers” for her sudden death, describing the experience as “surreal”.

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Ella McNally, a 23 year old nurse, and her partner Josh Forrest, a 24 year old joiner, were overjoyed when they welcomed their “beautiful daughter” Willow Poppy Forrest into the world on June 4, 2023.

However, on the night of November 11, 2024, Ella put Willow to bed as usual, keeping an eye on the baby monitor throughout the night. But when she called out to wake her daughter the next morning, there was no response.

Despite immediate efforts to perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and calling for an ambulance, Willow was rushed to hospital where it was confirmed she had died on November 12, 2024, at just 17 months old.

Following a post-mortem examination and further tests, Willow’s cause of death was determined as Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI), leaving Ella and Josh without “any answers”.

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Now, in Willow’s memory, the couple are preparing to take on the London Landmarks Half Marathon in April to raise awareness and funds for the charity SUDC UK.

“We were waiting and hoping we’d get answers,” Ella said.

“But even now, it has been nearly 15 months since she passed away, so she’s almost been gone as long as we had her, and the questions still nag because there aren’t any answers.

“I’m doing (the marathon) for Willow, and for any other family who has experienced this, and I know she’ll be with me all the way.”

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To donate or find out more, visit the JustGiving page here.

SUDC UK says Sudden Unexplained Death in Childhood (SUDC) is the sudden and unexpected death of a child, between one and 18 years of age, which remains unexplained after a thorough case investigation is conducted.

Approximately 40 children in the UK are affected by SUDC each year, and the charity says no-one can predict or prevent these deaths, neither parents nor medical professionals, at this time.

If a child is under 24 months, some guidelines use the term Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI) instead of SUDC, and therefore this may be listed as the cause of death.

Ella said Willow was born on June 4, 2023, with “no complications” and she had no health issues, other than one case of hand, foot and mouth disease, which is a common childhood illness.

Describing Willow, Ella said: “She was bubbly, clever and really cheeky. She had everyone wrapped around her finger.”

On November 11 2024, Willow spent the day with Ella’s parents while she was on placement for her nursing degree and Josh was away for work, and they noticed she had a higher temperature.

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However, by the evening, Willow’s temperature had returned to normal after taking the medicine Calpol.

“She had a bath and she was splashing around and singing nursery rhymes, so she seemed totally fine,” Ella, from Nottingham, explained.

Ella and her sister brought Willow home, read her bedtime stories and gave her a bottle of milk before putting her to bed.

Ella kissed her goodnight, said “I love you” and put on some calming white noise with her Tonie device, checking the baby monitor several times throughout the night.

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In the morning, Ella checked the baby monitor again and said, from the angle of the monitor, it just looked like Willow was asleep and “nothing was out of the ordinary”. However, when she went to wake Willow up, she said her name a few times and she did not respond.

“I thought she was just messing about at first,” Ella said.

“I didn’t think anything of it because I was just stood at her door, but by the fourth time I’d said it and she didn’t respond, I rushed to get her.”

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With Willow “unresponsive”, Ella rushed her downstairs and said she “screamed at (her) sister to ring the ambulance” before performing CPR. Willow was blue-lighted to King’s Mill Hospital and Ella was transported in a police vehicle, and Ella had to call Josh to explain what was happening.

‘The whole day was surreal’

Not long after their arrival, Ella said she was called into a room by medical professionals and told Willow had died that morning.

“I feel like my heart just dropped when Willow wasn’t replying because it was very unusual,” Ella explained.

“I couldn’t really believe it. It was just a normal morning and she was fine the night before. With my healthcare background, I knew that there wasn’t anything more we could do, but I didn’t want to accept that. It’s just surreal.”

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Ella and Josh were able to see Willow to say their goodbyes in the hospital, and they were given a 4Louis memory box, which offers a way for bereaved families to store meaningful keepsakes and mementos.

In the following days, the couple and family members visited Willow while she was in the mortuary for around an hour each day, and they read her books, including one of her favourites, We’re Going On A Bear Hunt.

Her funeral was held in December 2024, when she was buried with her favourite elephant blanket that she called “her baby”, a pink bunny toy and her Crocs, among other cherished possessions.

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“It was just a blur, the whole day was surreal,” Ella said.

“Seeing how many people were there to say their goodbyes, that’s what set me off and it hit me – this is real.”

Ella said she and Josh underwent genetic testing afterwards to see if that would provide any answers but the results came back as normal.

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Months after her death, the couple received a coronial post-mortem report, which ruled Willow’s cause of death as SUDI, and they said “nothing was flagged” other than her being a “healthy, happy child”.

“I don’t think anything’s ever going to be answered or eased, and to be honest, most of the time it doesn’t actually feel like it’s happened,” Ella said. “It just feels like the time we had with her is like a fever dream.”

She added: “You can try going back to normal, but I feel like with grief, it sneaks up on you when you least expect it.”

Ella explained that she and Josh have not moved or rearranged Willow’s possessions in their home, even leaving her snacks in the cupboard and her water bottle in the fridge, as they want to “memorialise it”.

Ella said she returned to university to finish her degree, as she knew Willow would not want her to “wallow at home”, and she graduated in September 2025 and was nominated for the most inspirational student award.

‘We will never stop talking about Willow’

The couple know they have to “keep going” and have found comfort “leaning” on each other and family members, and they want to speak out to help other families affected by SUDI or SUDC.

Now, they are preparing for the London Landmarks Half Marathon to raise more awareness and funds for the charity SUDC UK, with a current target of £3,000, and Ella said it will be an “emotional” day.

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“We had never heard of SUDC until it happened to us… but we just want every child to be remembered and for the message to be put across,” Ella said. “We will never stop talking about Willow.”

Pascale Harvie, president and general manager at JustGiving, said: “Ella’s decision to run the London Landmarks Half Marathon is a deeply moving tribute to Willow’s memory.

“By championing the work of SUDC UK, she is turning her personal grief into a lifeline for other families. Everyone at JustGiving is in awe of her strength and resilience, and we’ll be cheering her on every step of the way.”

To donate or find out more, visit the JustGiving page here.

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Petrol falls to its lowest price for five years

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Wales Online

Analysis of RAC data has revealed that fuel has dropped to its lowest price since the summer of 2021

The cost of petrol has dropped to its lowest level in five years, new data has confirmed. Analysis of RAC figures has revealed that fuel has dropped to its cheapest rate since the summer of 2021.

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The breakdown states a litre of unleaded now averages 131.91p around the UK, having fallen more than 3p in January. The last time petrol was under 132p was on July 2, 2021, when it averaged 131.81p, the RAC says. An average full tank of petrol now costs £72.55, with the reduction driven by oil dipping below the $60 a barrel mark on January 7.

Diesel has also come down by 3p to 140.97p in January, but the RAC says that is still several pence a litre above its price at the start of July 2021 – 134.36p. A full tank of diesel now costs £77.53. Stay in the know by making sure you’re receiving our daily newsletter.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “Seeing the price of petrol dip under 132p is a genuine boost for drivers, rewinding prices to those we last saw four and half years ago.

“And with even cheaper prices available depending on where drivers fill up, this is a positive start to the year for household budgets, especially so soon after Christmas.

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“The Competition and Markets Authority’s 2025 annual road fuel monitoring report published in December said competition in the sector had not strengthened and retailer margins remained at historically high levels, and in some cases had increased.

“It also confirmed, contrary to what the fuel retailers trade association had been arguing, that increased operating costs were not the reason for average margins on petrol and diesel being higher.

“Our analysis of RAC Fuel Watch data also shows a similar picture of retailer margins.

“So, had retailers passed on more of the savings they’ve benefitted from when buying new fuel supply on the wholesale market, the January price reductions would probably have been bigger.”

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Manchester road closures for Chinese New Year celebrations

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Manchester road closures for Chinese New Year celebrations

The closures will affect Manchester city centre from February 14 to 15 to support the Lunar New Year Fair and Dragon Parade.

Areas in and around Chinatown, as well as key parts of the parade route, will also be affected.

Nicholas Street, St James Street, and Faulkner Street will be closed from 5am on February 14 until 11.59pm on February 15.

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Streets closed only on February 15 include Reyner Street, Charlotte Street, George Street, Chain Street, Back George Street, and Pine Street.

Additional closures along the parade route will be in effect from 10am to 3pm on February 15.

Affected roads include Peter Street (Mount Street to Lower Mosley Street, with a soft closure at Peter Street/Deansgate), Oxford Street (Peter Street to Whitworth Street West), and Portland Street (Chepstow Street to Chorlton Street).

Other streets affected include Princess Street (Major Street to Cooper Street), George Street (Oxford Street to Princess Street), St James Street (Oxford Street to Princess Street), and portions of Faulkner Street and Dickinson Street.

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Mike Thompson, chief operating officer at Leasing Options, said: “There are two key events taking place.

“The Manchester Lunar New Year Fair is a vibrant weekend market with performances and food on February 14 to 15, taking over Market Street, Exchange Square, and New Cathedral Street.

“While the Manchester Dragon Parade is being celebrated on February 15.”

While the weekend is filled with red lanterns, music, and family-friendly activities, major traffic congestion is expected in cities hosting celebrations.

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Chinese New Year falls on February 17, and across the UK, cities will host a weekend of festivities to mark the event, also known as the Spring Festival and Lunar New Year.

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Half Of Brits Say Starmer Must Quit After Mandelson Scandal

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Half Of Brits Say Starmer Must Quit After Mandelson Scandal

Half of Brits say Keir Starmer should now resign in the wake of the Peter Mandelson scandal, according to a new poll.

It comes after US lawmakers released a new batch of Jeffrey Epstein files last week and exposed just how extensive Mandelson’s relationship with him was prior to the convicted sex offender’s death in 2019.

Starmer also admitted this week that he knew of Mandelson’s ties to the disgraced financier before he even appointed him to be Britain’s ambassador to the US in February last year.

While more information about this friendship was unveiled last September, forcing the prime minister to sack Mandelson, the latest Epstein files prove they were especially close.

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Researchers at YouGov found just 24% of Brits polled on Thursday want the prime minister to stay in his post, compared to 50% who want him to be replaced by another Labour figure.

Using a sample size of 6,741 adults in Britain, the pollsters also found that 2024 Labour voters are split, with 40% wanting Starmer to stay while 37% are urging him to go.

Starmer tried to win back public favour on Thursday with a public apology to Epstein’s victims.

“I am sorry,” he said. “Sorry for what was done to you. Sorry for having believing Mandelson’s lies and appointed him. And sorry that even now you are forced to watch this story unfold in public once again.”

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However, several of his own MPs are still feeling mutinous – particularly those on the left.

At least 13 backbenchers so far have publicly stated they think this could now be the end of Starmer, calling the situation “catastrophic” and claiming No.10 “needs gutting from top to bottom”.

Labour peer Harriet Harman, formerly a deputy Labour leader, said Starmer needs to remove his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, a close ally to Mandelson, from government in order to survive.

She told Sky News the prime minister should be thinking about a “real reset in Number 10”.

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By 50% to 24%, Britons say Keir Starmer should step down as prime minister

2024 Labour voters are split, with 37% wanting him to stand down and 40% wanting him to stay

Results link in replies pic.twitter.com/NFiud6JQb4

— YouGov (@YouGov) February 5, 2026

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Winter Olympics 2026: Snoop Dogg takes centre stage but GB curlers shine again

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Snoop Dogg at the curling

Mouat has been calling himself all the bad swears during three patchy opening games amid the Dolomite mountains in the north of Italy, but one of the sport’s leading lights lifted it against the Swedes.

And in Dodds, he has a partner who has been consistently superb so far. Only Sweden’s Isabella Wranaa had been statistically better but she was no match here.

When Dodds asked her questions, she struggled to find answers. Indeed, at one stage, she battered her brush off the side of the sheet after an errant throw as the sibling bonds between her and partner Rasmus began to fray.

“The difference was the two girls. Isabella wasn’t making shots, but Jen was,” said BBC Sport pundit Jackie Lockhart.

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At that stage, the GB pair were four points up – a second consecutive night without much sleep after a quick turnaround from Thursday’s win over Czech Republic proving no impediment – but the lead was narrowed to 4-3 at the break.

Another two in the fifth end cleaved open the advantage again before the teams traded points in the next two to leave Sweden needing four in the final end to win.

They got none, as the end was blanked. A stunning Mouat throw proved decisive, evincing a first-pump from the restrainted Scot and earning him an audience with Snoop moments later.

“Can you say you won pretty? It was just a lot better from me and happy we’re making opponents play tough shots,” Mouat told BBC Sport.

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Watch as Ghislaine Maxwell paces in cell and scoffs prison food in grim jailhouse CCTV footage released in Epstein files

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Watch as Ghislaine Maxwell paces in cell and scoffs prison food in grim jailhouse CCTV footage released in Epstein files

NEWLY released footage showing a grim insight into disgraced Ghislaine Maxwell’s life in prison has been released in the latest Epstein files.

The never-before-seen CCTV clip shows the onetime socialite, 64, pacing up and down her jail cell and scoffing what appears to be a burger.

Ghislaine Maxwell stares at the ceiling as she awaits bail in 2020Credit: US DOJ/UNPIXS
The one-time socialite repeatedly presses her hands into her face
Sporting an orange jumpsuit, Maxwell appears to eat a burger in her cell

Sporting an orange jumpsuit and surrounded by white walls, Maxwell can be seen curled up on her mattress repeatedly pressing her hands into her head.

The chilling footage was released by the Department of Justice last Friday, among a massive new tranche of files related to convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Maxwell is currently serving a 20-year-sentance at a Federal medium-security in Texas.

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She was arrested in July 2020 on six federal charges, including sexual exploitation of minors, transportation of minors across state lines for sex and perjury.

EPSTEIN’S EMAILS

Hackers ‘break into Epstein’s email  after finding passwords in files’

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The clip was filmed inside the notorious Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, in July of 2020, when Maxwell was awaiting bail.

On July 14, she pleaded not guilty to all charges and was denied bail. At the time, she was facing up to 35 years in prison.

Months later, on December 28, a judge turned down a $28.5million bail package because she posed a flight risk.

Her lawyers claimed guards were conducting invasive searches of her cell every 15 minutes to make sure she was still alive.

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She was found guilty on December 29, 2021 and hauled into Florida’s Tallahassee Federal Correctional Institution.

In August last year she was moved again into a low security prison camp 100 miles outside Houston, Texas.


It comes as…


The move came after Maxwell spoke to Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche about more than 100 men connected to Epstein, including Prince Andrew, but was condemned by her victims.

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She is expected to sit for a congressional deposition on February 9, on request of Republican House Oversight Chairman James Comer.

During a hearing on January 21, Comer said: “I agree that we need to hear from Ghislaine Maxwell.

“Our lawyers have been saying that she’s going to plead the fifth, but we have nailed down a date, February 9, where Ghislaine Maxwell will be deposed by this committee.”

The same hearing announced former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton could be held in contempt.

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Former Democrat powerhouses Bill, 79, and Hillary, 78, came under fire for refusing to testify in the House Oversight Committee’s probe into Epstein.

The pair have since u-turned and agreed to testify.

Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton has been accused of wrongdoing, and Hillary’s name has not appeared in any of the Epstein files released so far by the Department of Justice.

Maxwell has appealed her case numerous times and lost. In October, the US Supreme Court said it would not hear an appeal from her.

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It comes as the Justice Department released a massive new batch of Epstein-related material, exposing his ties to major figures across the world.

This was both before and after the late financier pleaded guilty in 2008 to prostitution charges, including soliciting an underage girl.

A number of well-known names like Richard Branson, Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor are mentioned multiple times in the files.

Maxwell, a long-time associate of Epstein, was convicted by a federal grand jury in 2021Credit: Reuters
Maxwell sits alongside disgraced paedo financer Epstein (left)Credit: Rex
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Family of mum brutally murdered in US launch fundraiser to bring her baby to Scotland

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Daily Record

June Bunyan, 37, originally from the Isle of Arran, was found dismembered at her home in Los Angeles, California, on September 11.

The family of a lawyer who was brutally murdered in the US have launched a fundraising bid to cover a legal fight to bring her baby to Scotland.

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New mum June Bunyan, 37, from the Isle of Arran, was found dismembered at her home in Los Angeles, California, on September 11. Police in America were called to June’s flat after her husband Jonathan Renteria was found injured in a hotel room alongside a note where he confessed to killing her.

Renteria, 25, is currently behind bars on suspicion of murder, disinterment, mutilation and sexual contact with human remains. He has pleaded not guilty and his lawyer has suggested he may have been experiencing psychosis at the time of June’s death.

June’s baby girl Regina remains in the US with Renteria’s parents. Her family have launched a custody battle to bring her baby home to Scotland but need £40,000 to foot the legal costs.

A newly launched online fundraiser has raised more than £1000 in a few hours. The Bunyan family believe the infant’s best interests “lie in being reunited with her maternal family in Scotland, where she can grow up surrounded by love, stability, and a strong connection to her mother’s heritage”.

A statement from June’s family reads: “We are raising funds to secure urgent legal representation to bring June Bunyan’s baby daughter, Regina, home to Scotland to be with her maternal family.

“Following June’s tragic death in September, her baby remains in the US, separated from her mother’s family and from everything that connected June to her life in Scotland. Most distressingly for us, Regina has been placed in the care of her paternal grandparents, while her father is currently remanded in custody, accused of killing her mother.

“For many reasons, this is deeply concerning and should never be the long-term outcome for a child who has already suffered such an unimaginable loss. We firmly believe that Regina’s best interests lie in being reunited with her maternal family in Scotland, where she can grow up surrounded by love, stability, and a strong connection to her mother’s heritage.

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“Achieving this, however, means navigating complex and time-sensitive international family law, something we simply cannot do without experienced legal representation.”

Her family claims when her body was discovered by police, her personal belongings, including her passport, were missing.

The statement continues: “When June’s body was found on September 11, her apartment had been completely emptied. Everything that connected June to her life was gone: her passport and identification, bank details, health insurance information, medical records, and all essential documents relating to Regina.

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“There are many unresolved questions regarding the removal of June’s possessions, the whereabouts currently unknown. June’s passport and other official documents are currently being held by the LAPD, following their recovery from Regina’s grandparents.

“As a result, we are facing further devastating obstacles at a time when we are simply trying to grieve. Without access to these vital records, we do not know whether June had funds, health insurance, or any financial resources. We do not have access to her bank account, we have received no meaningful assistance from the authorities, and we have no means to cover urgent legal costs.”

Earlier this week, June’s mum Jill Bunyan told how she is living in hell as she faces a two-year wait for answers about her daughter’s death.

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She told the BBC: “It’s two years you can’t grieve, it’s two years you can’t move on, it’s two years you’re just waiting. We’re in hell. This is a nightmare.

“I lost my daughter. Right now I can’t see my granddaughter and I have not one thing, not one possession of my daughter’s – and I want to know why.”

June moved from Scotland to the US to pursue a career in law. She had set up a paralegal service after she moved to LA and met Renteria. Shortly after they couple got together, June filed a restraining order against him citing domestic violence. That claim was later dropped.

In September last year, officers discovered June’s torso with missing limbs. The autopsy stated the cause of death was traumatic neck injuries and that June suffered approximately 10 “sharp force injuries.”

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The couple had welcomed their baby months before her murder.

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Sam Warburton reveals Wales’ gameplan as they target England in three places

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Wales Online

Wales will have to be on the money to have any chance of competing with England

Sam Warburton has identified three key areas Wales must improve on if they are to stand any chance of competing with England in Saturday’s Six Nations opener at Allianz Stadium Twickenham.

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In his Times column, the former Wales captain insists Steve Tandy’s side must be significantly better at the set-piece, in the air and in terms of winning collisions against high-flying England. Steve Borthwick’s side are extremely clinical in the opposition 22 so it is imperative Wales’ set-piece holds firm.

If Wales start conceding penalties at the scrum then it will be a long afternoon for the visitors.

Wales are without Cardiff tighthead Keiron Assiratti, who was one of their better players in the autumn, but are boosted by the return of the experienced Tomas Francis who has been named on the bench.

England have injuries in the front-row but Ellis Genge and Joe Heyes are two of the best scrummagers in the business.

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“There are three key areas that Wales will have been focusing on this week,” Warburton wrote in The Times.

“The first is the set piece. That has always been a traditional area of strength for England, but Wales must make sure that they do not concede too many penalties at the scrum and lineout.

“They will have been working hard on their maul defence, because if England win seven or eight penalties from scrums and lineouts, then that could be seven or eight entries into Wales’ half or even their 22.”

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Wales got exposed badly under the high-ball throughout the autumn and Tandy has responded by not including Blair Murray for the first time in 14 Test matches.

He has opted for Louis Rees-Zammit at full-back with Ellis Mee and Josh Adams on the wing.

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All three are strong under the high ball but England full-back Freddie Steward is the best in the business.

“I see that Steve Borthwick, the England head coach, has been saying that Wales will kick a lot and I think he is right, because Wales are realising they need to be a bit more pragmatic at times,” wrote Warburton.

“Yes, they have a coaching staff that want to attack — and we must remember that they scored four tries against New Zealand, only the second time a Wales team has ever done that since the 2003 World Cup match — but it is a question of balance and I do think they are beginning to understand that a little more.

“I really like the selection of Louis Rees-Zammit at full back.

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“He is a different player from when he first went to American football. It is not just about his pace now.

“He has put on 5-6kg of muscle, which is a lot for any athlete, and he is much more dominant in contact.”

But more than anything Wales’ chances of avoiding a walloping at Twickenham depends on how competitive they are at the gain-line.

If Wales lose the collisions and allow England to get over the gain-line then this could get ugly.

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“If England carry the ball 150 to 200 times, that’s 150 to 200 collisions that have to be dominant or at least neutral from a Welsh perspective,” wrote Warburton.

“If the majority of them are negative collisions for Wales, it is going to be so difficult.”

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Virgil van Dijk says pundits have ‘duty of responsibility’ to current players

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Close-up image of Virgil van Dijk in the left of the photograph. He has black hair, tied back, and is wearing Liverpool's red home shirt. The background of the image is black with a spotlight in the top right corner.

“I feel like the ex-top players have a responsibility to the new generation,” Van Dijk said.

“Criticism is absolutely normal and part of the game, and I think it should stay that way.

“But sometimes criticism also goes into being clickbait, saying things to provoke things, and without thinking about the repercussions for the mental side of players, and especially the younger generation, who are constantly on social media.

“You can say, ‘yeah, you shouldn’t be on social media’ – that’s what I’ve mentioned [to them] loads of times.

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“There is always this thing of when you play a good game, younger players check all the positive praises, but when you have a worse game, and you’re getting bullied all over social media, or you’re getting bad criticism, it can really affect you.

“I’ve seen that in certain players in the past, and currently as well, because it’s just not easy.”

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Supermarket worker seriously injured after being stabbed as he chased shoplifter

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Daily Record

The man suffered serious injuries the ambulance service has said

A shop worker was seriously injured after being stabbed whilst chasing a shoplifter from the store.

The horrific incident occurred in a Birmingham branch of Heron Foods just after 10.05am on Thursday (February 5). West Midlands Police and paramedics were called to the shop yesterday, where the worker was treated at the scene before being taken to hospital.

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His injuries were said to be serious and no arrests have been made, but police inquiries are continuing.

A police spokesman told BirminghamLive: “We were called to a store on Heathland Avenue, Shard End at around 10.05am after a man was seriously injured during a robbery.

“The man suffered a knife wound to his stomach and was taken to hospital for treatment. As part of our investigation, we are reviewing CCTV footage and speaking to witnesses.

“Anyone with any information is asked to contact us by calling 101 or via Live Chat on our website quoting 20/137209/26.”

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A spokesman from West Midlands Ambulance Service said: “We were called to reports of a stabbing on Heathland Avenue at 10.06am, one ambulance, two paramedic officers and a MERIT trauma doctor, with a critical care paramedic, attended the scene.

“On arrival we discovered one patient, a man, who was treated for serious injuries before being taken to hospital.”

Heron Foods is opposite the Heathway shops in Shard End, the store has been contacted for a statement.

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Ukraine is being left out in the cold

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Ukraine is being left out in the cold

This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.


January and February are the cruellest months in Ukraine. For the past week, temperatures in Kyiv have hovered between lows of -19°C and highs of -6°C. The Ukrainian capital gets about nine hours of daylight per day. And the relentless Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has meant that, for the most part, people are shivering in the dark in the coldest winter in a decade.

At one point in January, things were so bad that Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, ordered anyone who could to leave the city to leave and find refuge in places with alternative sources of power and heating.

There are conflicting reports as to whether the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, honoured the commitment he reportedly made to Donald Trump to order a one-week pause on attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure. The US president insisted he had, Ukrainians said he hadn’t and that, in any case, Russia was attacking so many Ukrainian targets that it was hard to tell when the “power truce” actually began and when it ended.

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At the time, Kremlin mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov said that the goal was the “creation of favourable conditions for holding talks”. It’s no coincidence that the nights before both recent rounds of three-way talks between Russian, Ukrainian and American negotiators saw massive Russian bombardment of critical civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

And, once again, the talks have failed to achieve very much. After the most recent day of negotiations in Abu Dhabi, some progress has been made on prisoner swaps, but little else of any substance has been agreed. As Stefan Wolff notes, the two sides are so far apart in their negotiating positions that there’s little or no chance of seeing a meaningful peace agreement any time soon.

Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham who has written regularly for The Conversation since the full-scale invasion nearly four years ago, sees a series of potholes on the road to peace, many of which Trump has helped to dig.

For example, on the vexed issue of territory, Putin takes as his starting point what has become known as the “Anchorage formula”, apparently agreed with the US president when the pair met in Alaska last August. This holds that in return for security guarantees from Kyiv’s allies (the coalition of the willing in Europe, but – of course – principally the US), Ukraine will withdraw from the portion of the Donbas that it still holds after four years of bitter fighting.

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Zelensky, for his part, remains adamant that this is a non-starter. Meanwhile Putin is equally adamant that he will not accept non-Ukrainian boots on the ground as guarantors of a ceasefire. Add to that, Trump’s mercurial approach to security guarantees and his apparent desire to link any peace deal to some sort of business upside for the US, and you understand why Wolff concludes that: “Any claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding.”




À lire aussi :
Farcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Ukraine shivers under Russia’s winter onslaught


Take Putin’s stipulation that Kyiv must withdraw its military from the rest of the Donbas. This, write Rod Thornton and Marina Miron of King’s College London, would be tantamount to suicide for Ukraine. The “Donbas line” has held up Russia’s westward advance for the best part of four years.

It comprises a row of fortified cities linked by a line of seven distinct defensive layers which Russian troops would need to overcome to move further into central Ukraine.

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Given the rate of attrition, particularly on Russia’s side (at last count, estimates are that Russian casualties have mounted to 1.2 million killed, inured or missing – more than double those of Ukraine) you can understand why Putin’s military planners are so keen to avoid their troops having to face these sophisticated killing zones.




À lire aussi :
Trump wants Ukraine to give up the Donbas in return for security guarantees. It could be fatal for Kyiv


To sum up: the post-second world war order is in disarray, Nato is looking shakier by the week, a major war is raging in Europe and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, is reportedly becoming increasingly insistent about China’s claim over the future of Taiwan in his recent phone call with the US president. So now’s a good time to note that the New Start nuclear arms control treaty has just expired, prompting speculation on all sides as to the likelihood of a new nuclear arms race.




À lire aussi :
New Start’s expiration will make the world less safe – even if it doesn’t spark another nuclear arms race

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Xi’s military purge

Talking of China, reports emerged recently that Xi has purged another of his top generals. The removal of Zhang Youxia, vice-chair of China’s central military commission (CMC), which is chaired by Xi, means that all but one of the members of that powerful body have lost their positions in the past three years.

Zhang Youxia and his senior military colleagues being sworn in as members of China’s Central Military Commission in 2023. All but one of the seven-person body have now been removed.
The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images

China-watcher Kerry Brown, of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, tracks XI’s record of purging senior officials since his early days in charge. When considering what this might mean for Taiwan, it’s worth noting that Zhang was the last remaining senior military commander with actual combat experience, having fought in the war against Vietnam in the late 1970s. This may mean that China will need to regroup and reorganise before it could consider mounting any aggressive action against Taiwan. All eyes will be on who replaces Zhang.




À lire aussi :
Why Xi purged China’s top military general


Competing visions for Gaza

On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos the other week, shortly after the US president launched his Board of Peace, the dignitaries who had signed up to the board were given a presentation on the future of Gaza by two members of the board’s executive committee: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

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It was a similar vision to one publicised by the US president last year and featured gleaming office towers, data centres, luxury beachfront resorts and modern transport hubs. Like a similar plan unveiled by Israel last year, it’s not immediately clear what part the 2.1 million residents of Gaza may play in the reconstruction of their homeland.

Timothy J. Dixon, an expert in urban futures at the University of Reading, has run his ruler over the competing visions for the future of Gaza and spells out some of the considerable challenges that lie ahead for anyone taking on this gargantuan task.

Not the least of them is doing something with the estimated 61 million tonnes of rubble under which there is likely to be large amounts of unexploded ordnance and human remains.

Whether there is any justice in this for the people of Gaza themselves remains to be seen. One plan for reconstruction, the Gaza Phoenix plan, was developed by a consortium of local and regional planners and “preserves Gaza’s identity, its heritage and its people”. Or at least, that’s the aim. It sounds optimistic, but as Dixon points out, the most successful plans for large-scale reconstruction – most notably the Marshall plan for the rebuilding of Europe after 1945 – “involved close engagement with civil society and local communities to achieve success”.

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