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Bitcoin Price Faces 25% Risk as Buy-the-Dip Narrative Weakens

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Bearish BTC Structure

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has revived the buy-the-dip narrative, but the data tells a more complicated story. After falling nearly 15% and briefly touching the $60,000 zone, the Bitcoin price bounced more than 11%, drawing traders back into long positions.

At first glance, the bounce looks encouraging. However, bearish chart patterns, rising leverage, and fragile spot demand suggest the market may not be out of danger yet. With a potential 25% downside still in play, the latest bounce is now facing serious scrutiny.

Bear Flag, Rising Leverage, and Falling Exchange Supply Signal Risky Optimism

Bitcoin’s short-term risk is already visible on the 4-hour chart.

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After the sharp sell-off toward $60,000, the Bitcoin price formed a rebound structure that now resembles a bear flag pattern. This setup typically appears when the price pauses after a strong drop before continuing lower. If the lower trendline breaks, the pattern points to a downside move of nearly 25%, targeting the $48,000–$49,000 zone.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bearish BTC Structure
Bearish BTC Structure: TradingView

Despite this technical warning, leverage is rising again.

Following the 11.18% rebound, more than $540 million in new long positions were built on Binance alone. This shows that traders are once again using heavy leverage, betting that the bottom is already in. Similar behavior has preceded major liquidations in past downturns.

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Long Leverage Comes Back
Long Leverage Comes Back: Coinglass

At the same time, spot market behavior reflects a growing buy-the-dip mindset.

Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell from around 1.23 million BTC to 1.22 million BTC between February 5 and February 6. This decline suggests that traders are withdrawing coins, possibly for short-term holding, expecting higher prices.

BTC Supply Dips: Santiment

Public figures and social media sentiment have also turned more optimistic, reinforcing the ‘Buy-the-Dip’ narrative.

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Together, these signals possibly show misplaced confidence.

A fragile chart pattern, rising leverage, and early dip buying are forming at the same time. When optimism builds before structural weakness is resolved, downside risk often increases rather than fades.

Long-Term Holders Keep Selling as Realized Price Support Comes Into Focus

While short-term traders are turning bullish, long-term holders, the most stable folks, are moving in the opposite direction.

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The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, which tracks the 30-day supply shift among investors holding for more than one year, has remained deeply negative since early January. On January 6, this metric showed net selling of around 2,300 BTC. By February 5, that figure had worsened to roughly 246,000 BTC.

Long-Term Holders Selling
Long-Term Holders Selling: Glassnode

This represents a nearly 10,500% increase in long-term distribution in just one month. In simple terms, the most conviction-driven investors are still reducing exposure.

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This behavior becomes more concerning when combined with the long-term holder realized price.

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The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of coins held by long-term investors. Historically, when Bitcoin approaches or falls below this level, it signals deep market stress. In past cycles, major rallies only began after the price stabilized around this zone; however, not immediately.

Currently, the long-term holder realized price sits near $40,260.

Key Support Level
Key Support Level: Bitcoin Magazine

As Bitcoin moves closer to this level, more long-term investors approach breakeven. If the price drops below it, many enter losses, often accelerating capitulation. This dynamic played out in late 2022 before the final bear market bottom formed.

So far, that reset has not happened.

Long-term holders are still selling, not accumulating. Their realized price is becoming a key downside magnet. This suggests the market has not completed its full deleveraging and redistribution phase.

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Key Bitcoin Price Levels Show Why $48,000 and $40,000 Matter Next

All technical and on-chain signals now converge around a few critical price zones.

On the downside, the first major support sits near $53,350. A failure here would expose the $48,800 region, which aligns with the bear flag target and prior consolidation zones.

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If $48,800 breaks, attention shifts to the long-term holder realized price near $40,260.

This zone represents the deepest structural support in the current cycle. A move into this region would indicate broad capitulation among long-term investors and confirm a deeper bear phase.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

In a worst-case scenario, extended weakness could even open the door toward $37,180, based on longer-term projections and historical support clusters.

On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $69,510 on a sustained 4-hour closing basis to regain short-term credibility. A move above $73,320 would be required to invalidate the bearish pattern.

Until that happens, rallies remain vulnerable.

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With leverage rebuilding, long-term holders still selling, and critical support levels approaching, the current rebound lacks structural confirmation. Under these conditions, buy-the-dip strategies remain exposed to sharp reversals rather than sustained upside.

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

DeFi risk curator Steakhouse Financial has been hacked and its website and app are now being used to host a phishing scam.

Steakhouse disclosed the breach Monday morning and warned that any new users interacting with the website or app are likely interacting with a malicious version implemented by the hackers. 

The attack appears to have affected just the front-end of operations, as Steakhouse assured users, “No deposits are at risk. No contracts are affected. All Steakhouse depositors are safe.”

A statement from the official Steakhouse Financial X account.

Read more: Fake Uniswap phishing ad on Google steals trader’s life savings

“We are working to restore the frontend as soon as possible,” the firm said. 

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Steakhouse co-founder, Sébastien Derivaux, warned crypto users to avoid the website until further notice.  

Various crypto firms offered alternative services and safety assurances for customers with funds at Steakhouse. 

Others found humor in the incident, with one user asking, “Does phishing on Steakhouse make this a surf and turf attack?”

At the time of writing, neither Steakhouse Financial or its CEO have shared any further updates on the incident.

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Steakhouse Financial housing a crypto drainer

Crypto security firm Blockaid claims that the Steakhouse attackers are utilizing code from one of the “largest active wallet drainer operations onchain” known as Angelferno, or Angel Drainer.

Read more: Fears of $27M Venus Protocol hack turn out to be phishing attack on power user

Earlier this month, AI crypto firm GAIB fell victim to a social engineering scheme that gave hackers access to its domain, where they implemented a copycat website kitted with Angelferno. 

Drainers work by stealing a user’s crypto after they sign a malicious transaction that gives hackers full access to withdraw their funds.

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Blockaid was able to help GAIB detect the malware, and the malicious site was gone in roughly seven hours, with no apparent user losses. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity.

Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension.

Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. 

Prediction markets marked a record number of transactions, representing a more than 2,800% increase since this time last year. 

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Here’s March by the numbers:

Bitcoin lacks momentum as 4% US Treasury bond yields put pressure on price

Yields on five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4% in March, putting pressure on Bitcoin price. While showing some gains in mid March, the asset ended the month much where it started, around $67,000.

As per an analysis from Cointelegraph, fears of a drawn-out conflict between the US and Israel against Iran have led investors to cut out risk. A sell-off in bonds, along with a nine-month high of 4% in yields, suggests that traders are building cash positions.

Bitcoin hashrate falls nearly 6% after US and Israel attack Iran

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint special military operation in Iran called “Operation Epic Fury.” One month later, the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate is down almost 6%.

Bloomberg crypto and digital assets strategist Dushyant Shahrawat said in a recent interview that Iran is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin miners, accounting for some 6-8% of global hashrate, and 70% of mining activities are conducted by the military. 

Disruptions to the country’s energy infrastructure and diversion of military priorities to defense have thus hit Iran’s ability to mine Bitcoin. 

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Prediction market transaction top 192 million

Transactions on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi topped 192 million in March. That represents a 24% increase from last month and a 2,880% increase compared to the same time last year, according to Dune analytics. 

Related: Lawmakers push another bill to curb prediction market insider trading

Prediction markets are growing in popularity, but in the United States, they face state regulators who say they facilitate a form of gambling. At least 11 states have taken legal action against them.

On March 20, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury upheld a regulator’s move to temporarily ban prediction market Kalshi in Nevada. 

Arizona has brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly “running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law.”

Other states like Utah and Pennsylvania are currently considering legislation that would bring prediction markets under state gambling or gaming laws. Kalshi says that it answers only to federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC). 

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Euro-denominated stablecoins account for 85% of non-dollar volume

Stablecoins backed by the euro have emerged as a favorite alternative to assets backed by US dollars. Some 85% of non-dollar stablecoin volumes occur in euros, according to a March report from Dune.

While euro-denominated coins initially only represented some 50-70% of the non-dollar market, they began expanding significantly in 2024. Now they represent 85% of total transferred volume. Euro stablecoins are also dominant in regard to participation, with user share rising to over 78%.

Dune attributes this increase to more confidence in stablecoins among institutions, thanks in large part to the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory package (MiCA). 

Robinhood stock down 16% on month

Robinhood stock has decreased over 16% in March, from nearly $80 to $66 as of publishing time. 

The stock and crypto trading company’s share price has been struggling in recent months. Over the last six months, it dropped over 50%. Uncertainty over the regulation of new verticals like prediction markets and social trading, along with a collapse in crypto trading revenues are creating structural obstacles for the company.

Revenue from crypto transactions reportedly dropped 38% year-over-year as of Q4 2025. Crypto app volumes dropped 58%.

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To address the problem, Robinhood has approved a $1.5 billion share buyback program in March, which will execute over the next three years. 

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are 11% in the red

Amid a lackluster price action on the month, Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio is at an 11% loss. The average cost of Bitcoin in its portfolio is $75,669. Bitcoin is trading around $67,800 at publishing time. 

Data collected March 30.

Still, the company has continued its regular Bitcoin purchases. It made two this month: one for 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and another for 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16, amounting to roughly $2.7 billion at publishing time.

The software company has financed most of its Bitcoin purchases through high-yield stock offerings, like Stretch (STRC). This allows the company to buy Bitcoin without diluting its MSTR common shares.

The company’s chair, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, said recently that 80% of STRC buyers are retail investors. “Retail investors prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit,” he said.

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