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Bitcoin Price Faces 25% Risk as Buy-the-Dip Narrative Weakens

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Bearish BTC Structure

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has revived the buy-the-dip narrative, but the data tells a more complicated story. After falling nearly 15% and briefly touching the $60,000 zone, the Bitcoin price bounced more than 11%, drawing traders back into long positions.

At first glance, the bounce looks encouraging. However, bearish chart patterns, rising leverage, and fragile spot demand suggest the market may not be out of danger yet. With a potential 25% downside still in play, the latest bounce is now facing serious scrutiny.

Bear Flag, Rising Leverage, and Falling Exchange Supply Signal Risky Optimism

Bitcoin’s short-term risk is already visible on the 4-hour chart.

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After the sharp sell-off toward $60,000, the Bitcoin price formed a rebound structure that now resembles a bear flag pattern. This setup typically appears when the price pauses after a strong drop before continuing lower. If the lower trendline breaks, the pattern points to a downside move of nearly 25%, targeting the $48,000–$49,000 zone.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bearish BTC Structure
Bearish BTC Structure: TradingView

Despite this technical warning, leverage is rising again.

Following the 11.18% rebound, more than $540 million in new long positions were built on Binance alone. This shows that traders are once again using heavy leverage, betting that the bottom is already in. Similar behavior has preceded major liquidations in past downturns.

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Long Leverage Comes Back
Long Leverage Comes Back: Coinglass

At the same time, spot market behavior reflects a growing buy-the-dip mindset.

Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell from around 1.23 million BTC to 1.22 million BTC between February 5 and February 6. This decline suggests that traders are withdrawing coins, possibly for short-term holding, expecting higher prices.

BTC Supply Dips: Santiment

Public figures and social media sentiment have also turned more optimistic, reinforcing the ‘Buy-the-Dip’ narrative.

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Together, these signals possibly show misplaced confidence.

A fragile chart pattern, rising leverage, and early dip buying are forming at the same time. When optimism builds before structural weakness is resolved, downside risk often increases rather than fades.

Long-Term Holders Keep Selling as Realized Price Support Comes Into Focus

While short-term traders are turning bullish, long-term holders, the most stable folks, are moving in the opposite direction.

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The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, which tracks the 30-day supply shift among investors holding for more than one year, has remained deeply negative since early January. On January 6, this metric showed net selling of around 2,300 BTC. By February 5, that figure had worsened to roughly 246,000 BTC.

Long-Term Holders Selling
Long-Term Holders Selling: Glassnode

This represents a nearly 10,500% increase in long-term distribution in just one month. In simple terms, the most conviction-driven investors are still reducing exposure.

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This behavior becomes more concerning when combined with the long-term holder realized price.

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The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of coins held by long-term investors. Historically, when Bitcoin approaches or falls below this level, it signals deep market stress. In past cycles, major rallies only began after the price stabilized around this zone; however, not immediately.

Currently, the long-term holder realized price sits near $40,260.

Key Support Level
Key Support Level: Bitcoin Magazine

As Bitcoin moves closer to this level, more long-term investors approach breakeven. If the price drops below it, many enter losses, often accelerating capitulation. This dynamic played out in late 2022 before the final bear market bottom formed.

So far, that reset has not happened.

Long-term holders are still selling, not accumulating. Their realized price is becoming a key downside magnet. This suggests the market has not completed its full deleveraging and redistribution phase.

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Key Bitcoin Price Levels Show Why $48,000 and $40,000 Matter Next

All technical and on-chain signals now converge around a few critical price zones.

On the downside, the first major support sits near $53,350. A failure here would expose the $48,800 region, which aligns with the bear flag target and prior consolidation zones.

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If $48,800 breaks, attention shifts to the long-term holder realized price near $40,260.

This zone represents the deepest structural support in the current cycle. A move into this region would indicate broad capitulation among long-term investors and confirm a deeper bear phase.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

In a worst-case scenario, extended weakness could even open the door toward $37,180, based on longer-term projections and historical support clusters.

On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $69,510 on a sustained 4-hour closing basis to regain short-term credibility. A move above $73,320 would be required to invalidate the bearish pattern.

Until that happens, rallies remain vulnerable.

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With leverage rebuilding, long-term holders still selling, and critical support levels approaching, the current rebound lacks structural confirmation. Under these conditions, buy-the-dip strategies remain exposed to sharp reversals rather than sustained upside.

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BeInCrypto Wins ‘Best Crypto Publisher’ at Crypto Awards 2025

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BeInCrypto Wins ‘Best Crypto Publisher’ at Crypto Awards 2025

BeInCrypto has been named Best Crypto Publisher at The Crypto Awards 2025, Russia’s leading awards for cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies. The event recognized top projects across 24 categories with a festive ceremony, celebrating those making an impact on the Russian crypto market.

A special shoutout goes to Evgeniya Likhodey, Managing Editor at BeInCrypto Russia, whose leadership helped the editorial team deliver in-depth analyses and news coverage that resonate with professionals and everyday readers alike.

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Evgeniya shared her perspective on the award:

“I think this award has become a symbol of our commitment to covering crypto in Russia honestly and without embellishment. We’re not afraid to talk about challenges, because real progress only comes from addressing them directly. At the same time, we make a point of highlighting positive developments that move the industry forward. This recognition belongs to the entire editorial team, whose daily work and dedication make this possible, and to our readers, whose trust we truly value.”

Since 2018, BeInCrypto has grown into a world-leading crypto news platform, reaching over 7 million monthly readers in their own language. As a proud member of the Trust Project, BeInCrypto remains committed to reliable, trustworthy journalism, supporting readers with accurate and timely crypto news.

This award highlights our ongoing commitment to accurate, timely, and credible coverage, helping readers stay informed in a fast-moving crypto landscape.

See the full list of winners here: https://cryptoawards.ru/

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy sheds $6 billion in a day — again

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Michael Saylor's Strategy sheds $6 billion in a day -- again

On March 20, 2000, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) co-founder and then-CEO Michael Saylor lost $6 billion in one day — ​​more money than any public company executive had ever previously lost in a single day.

He — and Strategy shareholders — lost even more yesterday.

Strategy opened for trading yesterday at a 52-week low after missing out on a $33 billion profit. Somehow, things got even worse by dinnertime.

By 5pm, Saylor’s company admitted to losing $42.93 per share of MSTR in diluted earnings within the final three months of 2025. The stock also declined another 20% to below $102 — incinerating another $7 billion in market capitalization within 24 hours.

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Strategy stock chart from Thursday, February 5, 2025. Source: TradingView

With a share price of just $102, the company posted a $15.23 per share loss for the 2025 calendar year. 

$6 billion in more missed profit

The bad news continued. The foregone $33 billion profit that it had missed out on by Wednesday night had turned into a $39 billion missed profit just 24 hours later.

Strategy’s ex-general counsel Shao Wei-Ming sold another 3,000 shares of MSTR. The company posted an operating loss of $17.4 billion for Q4 2025 — 16.4x higher than Q4 of the prior year. 

Its net loss per common share on a diluted basis was $42.93, as mentioned above, which calculates to a year-over-year increase of 1,316% in the wrong direction.

Dilution of MSTR continues

Its capital-raising abilities showed continued reliance on common stock dilution — despite months of attempts by management to switch the mix toward preferred shares.

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From October 1, 2025 through February 1, 2026, the company’s at-the-market share sales relied on MSTR dilution for 79%: $7.8 billion compared to just $1.6 billion from preferreds.

Worse, revenues from product licenses from the company’s actual operating business, enterprise software sales, plummeted 48% from $15.2 million in Q4 2024 to less than $7.8 million in Q4 2025.

Revenue lines labeled Product Support and Other Services also declined, with only Subscription Services posting a year-over-year increase. General and Administrative costs also ticked higher.

Read more: Michael Saylor doesn’t believe BTC is digital money

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Dividend payments to preferred shareholders — which did not exist in 2024 — dragged another $381.3 million out of the company in 2025.

The company’s flagship series of preferred, Stretch, which is the top focus of the company’s “laser-eyed” devotion, closed trading yesterday 6.3% below its intended $100 price, despite paying an 11.25% dividend and running X ads to motivate demand.

The company’s bitcoin (BTC) yield, a measure of management’s ability to accrete BTC per share by operating a good business and avoiding MSTR dilution, has slowed to a crawl in 2026.

As of February 1, BTC yield for common shareholders is just 0.3% year-to-date, which compares with formerly impressive figures of 7.3% in 2022, 74.3% in 2023, and 22.8% in 2024.

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Ripple lays out institutional DeFi blueprint for XRPL with XRP at center

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XRP-linked firms secures full e-money License for EU

Ripple and XRPL contributors have outlined a growing set of “institutional DeFi” building blocks on the XRP Ledger that aim to make the network viable for regulated financial activity, per a Thursday blog.

XRP’s utility as a settlement and bridge asset is being highlighted as central to that infrastructure, with usecases ranging from from forex and stablecoin rails to tokenized collateral and native lending markets.

The latest roadmap emphasizes features already live — such as multi-purpose token standards (MPT), permissioned domains with compliance tooling, credential-backed access and batch transactions — alongside upcoming releases that extend XRPL into credit markets and privacy-preserving workflows.

Unlike many smart contract chains that bolt on compliance after the fact, XRPL’s approach has been to embed identity and control primitives at the protocol layer.

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Permissioned domains and credentials allow markets to gate participation by verified entities, a requirement institutions often cite as a barrier to onchain integration.

On the payments and FX side, XRP’s role as an auto-bridge between assets continues to be cited as a demand driver, with stablecoin corridors and remittance flows adding to onchain volume and fee activity. Token escrows and object reserves denominated in XRP further tie network usage back to the native asset.

Looking ahead, the introduction of XLS-65/66 — the XRPL lending protocol — is slated to offer pooled and underwritten credit on ledger without entirely offloading risk logic onchain.

Single asset vaults, fixed-term lending and optional permissioning tools are designed to feel familiar to institutional risk managers while operating in an onchain settlement context.

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Privacy features like confidential transfers for MPTs, arriving in the first quarter, aim to satisfy enterprise and regulatory expectations around transaction-level anonymity and controlled disclosure.

Critics have long pointed to XRPL’s lack of EVM-style programmability as a hindrance. The new EVM sidechain — bridged via the Axelar network — is meant to address this by letting Solidity developers tap into XRPL liquidity and identity features while accessing familiar tooling.

XRP prices are down 22% over the past seven days, in line with a broader market drop.

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NFT Market Cap Returns to Pre-Hype Levels Near $1.5B

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NFT Market Cap Returns to Pre-Hype Levels Near $1.5B

The global non-fungible token (NFT) sector fell below $1.5 billion in total market capitalization, returning to levels last seen before the sector’s rapid expansion in 2021. 

The retracement unfolded alongside a broader crypto market downturn over the past two weeks, CoinGecko data shows. On Jan. 23, total crypto market capitalization stood at about $3.1 trillion, before falling to $2.2 trillion on Friday.

Major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) slid from around $89,000 to about $65,000, while Ether (ETH) fell from $3,000 to near $1,800 throughout the same time frame. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the top two networks for NFTs in terms of 30-day trading volume, according NFT data aggregator CryptoSlam.

The NFT market cap drop follows several high-profile closures and exits, highlighting the sector’s continued contraction. 

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Total NFT market cap chart. Source: CoinGecko

Rising supply collides with falling demand

The market reset has been compounded by a growing imbalance between NFT supply and buyer demand. 

As reported by Cointelegraph on Dec. 31, total NFT supply continued to expand even as sales and prices declined, pushing the sector into a high-volume, low-price structure. 

CryptoSlam data showed that the number of NFTs in circulation rose to nearly 1.3 billion in 2025, up by 25% compared to 2024. Total NFT sales fell 37% year-over-year to $5.6 billion, while average sale prices slipped below $100. 

The divergence suggests that while minting became cheaper and barriers to issuance fell, buyer participation and spending failed to keep up. 

Related: US prosecutors drop OpenSea NFT fraud case after appeals court reversal

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Corporate exits and platform closures add pressure

The drop follows a series of high-profile retreats that mirror the market’s pullback. On Jan. 7, footwear giant Nike quietly offloaded RTFKT, the digital collectibles studio it acquired at the height of the NFT boom.

The reported sale followed the company’s decision to shut down operations amid an investor lawsuit.

In addition, marketplace shutdowns have accelerated. Nifty Gateway, one of the earliest NFT platforms, said it will close on Feb. 23 and has entered withdrawal-only mode. The Gemini-owned platform cited a prolonged market downturn as it winds down.

On Jan. 28, social NFT platform Rodeo announced it would cease operations after failing to scale sustainably. Rodeo said it would transition to read-only mode before shutting down entirely in March.

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