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Turkish inflation falls below 50% in boon to Erdoğan

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Turkey’s inflation rate has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in more than a year, underscoring how President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s economic turnaround programme is succeeding in slowing runaway price growth.

Consumer prices rose 49 per cent in September from the same month in 2023, below the previous month’s rate of 52 per cent and the slowest pace since July 2023, Turkey’s statistical institute said on Thursday.

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Inflation is now lower than the central bank’s policy rate of 50 per cent, meaning so-called real interest rates have turned positive for the first time since 2021, according to FactSet data.

The slowdown in inflation and flip higher in real rates underscore how authorities are making progress in turning around Turkey’s $1tn economy following a series of sweeping policy U-turns that began after Erdoğan’s re-election in May 2023.

While Erdoğan had previously championed an idiosyncratic policy of holding rates low at all costs, Turkey has since imposed painful austerity measures including higher rates and taxes in a bid to control runaway prices.

Finance minister Mehmet Şimşek, who has vowed to restore “rational” economic policymaking, said Thursday’s data was evidence that “reducing inflation will not only solve the problem of the cost of living, but will also permanently increase the welfare of our citizens”.

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Line chart of  showing Turkish real interest rates turn positive

Erdoğan’s previous policy had caused major imbalances in Turkey’s economy, with inflation having peaked above 85 per cent in 2022.

He added fuel to the overheating economy prior to the May 2023 general election with massive stimulus measures, including a month of free gas for households and increases in the minimum wage and public sector salaries.

Consumers attempted to shield their savings by purchasing goods such as appliances and cars, and moving funds into dollars and euros, which widened the current account deficit and eroded the central bank’s foreign currency reserves.

The Turkish president changed course following his re-election, conceding that a more conventional economic policy was the only way to pull the country back from the brink of a worsening crisis.

Turkey’s central bank has increased its main interest rate more than 40 percentage points since the new programme began in June last year. Şimşek has employed a range of measures, including petrol tax rises, in an attempt to reduce inflation, narrow the current account deficit and rebuild central bank foreign currency reserves.

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The new measures have helped woo international investors who had fled Turkey’s markets in recent years. Turkey last week sold its biggest ever dollar-denominated bond.

The turn higher in real rates is a key achievement for Şimşek’s programme. Economic officials are betting that positive real interest rates will help ease some of the economic imbalances by heightening the allure of holding funds in Turkish savings accounts rather than utilising goods and foreign currencies as a store of value.

Despite the progress, investors and analysts say Turkish policymakers have a long way to go before the economy returns to a steadier footing. They are also concerned about how long Erdoğan will stick with the new programme, which has dented his popularity since many Turks are still not feeling the benefits of easing inflation.

Erdoğan’s political party faced its biggest-ever defeat in local elections this March, with the economy playing a key role in the poor performance. But analysts say authorities are betting that slower price rises will ease the pressure on the government, with the next round of general elections set for 2028.

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“The tightening of financial conditions and monetary policy is beginning to contribute to the return to a disinflationary path,” said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Bürümcekçi.

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Train journey that departs from UK crowned best in the world – with mosaic floor carriages and champagne afternoon tea

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The British Pullman A Belmond Train was crowned best train journey in the world in the Conde Nast Traveller awards

A LUXURY train company that offers day trips across the UK has been named the best train journey in the world.

The British Pullman is a fully restored 1920s train that was designed over a century ago to accommodate passengers accustomed to comfort and opulence.

The British Pullman A Belmond Train was crowned best train journey in the world in the Conde Nast Traveller awards

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The British Pullman A Belmond Train was crowned best train journey in the world in the Conde Nast Traveller awardsCredit: www.belmond.com/trains/europe/uk/belmond-british-pullman
Each carriage is decorated differently, with antique upholstery and vintage lighting

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Each carriage is decorated differently, with antique upholstery and vintage lightingCredit: Belmond British Pullman

And the train still oozes decadence today.

Its 11 carriages feature art deco-style interiors, antique upholstery, and vintage lighting.

Intricate artwork can be seen throughout the train, including magnificent mosaics on the bathroom floors.

Fine dining experiences are served up to guests and there’s a strict dress code to maintain its elegant atmosphere.

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While enjoying delicious food and admiring the train’s beautiful interior, passengers can enjoy views of the English countryside and coast.

The British Pullman A Belmond Train was crowned best train journey in the world in Conde Nast Traveller’s 2024 Readers’ Choice Awards.

The awards recognise all areas of the travel industry, from hotels and resorts to airlines, airports, cruises, cities and more.

Based in the South East of England, The British Pullman regularly departs from London Victoria and travels year-round to a wide variety of destinations, including Kent, Hampshire, Oxfordshire and Surrey.

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Passengers are welcomed onboard by a uniformed train steward and seated at tables adorned with crisp white linen and sparkling tableware.

They can then enjoy a variety of meals, including brunch, champagne afternoon tea, or a gourmet dinner. 

All Aboard the Scenic Express: Discovering UK’s Most Picturesque Train Routes

The train’s chef John Freeman has been part of the British Pullman team nearly two decades.

Having fallen in love with the challenges and fun of cooking onboard a moving train, John serves up food using British produce sourced from the very farms and fields by which the train passes. 

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Vegan and vegetarian options are also available.

Destinations include Bath and Oxford, but there are also trips solely focused on afternoon tea and Sunday lunch.

Prices start from £400 per passenger on a table for two.

A British hotel was also a winner in the Conde Nast Traveller awards.

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Raffles London at The OWO placed 33 in the best hotels in the world list.

Sun Travel’s favourite train journeys in the world

Sun Travel’s journalists have taken their fare share of train journeys on their travels and here they share their most memorable rail experiences.

Davos to Geneva, Switzerland

“After a ski holiday in Davos, I took the scenic train back to Geneva Airport. The snow-covered mountains and tiny alpine villages that we passed were so beautiful that it felt like a moving picture was playing beyond the glass.” – Caroline McGuire

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Tokyo to Kyoto by Shinkansen

“Nothing quite beats the Shinkansen bullet train, one of the fastest in the world. It hardly feels like you’re whizzing along at speed until you look outside and see the trees a green blur. Make sure to book seat D or E too – as you’ll have the best view of Mount Fuji along the way.” Kara Godfrey

London to Paris by Eurostar

“Those who have never travelled on the Eurostar may wonder what’s so special about a seemingly ordinary train that takes you across the channel. You won’t have to waste a moment and can tick off all the top attractions from the Louvre to the Champs-Élysées which are both less than five kilometres from the Gare du Nord.” – Sophie Swietochowski

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Glasgow to Fort William by Scotrail

“From mountain landscapes and serene lochs to the wistful moors, I spent my three-hour journey from Glasgow to Fort William gazing out the window. Sit on the left-hand side of the train for the best views overlooking Loch Lomond.” – Hope Brotherton

Beijing to Ulaanbatar

“The Trans-Mongolian Express is truly a train journey like no other. It starts amid the chaos of central Beijing before the city’s high-rises give way to crumbling ancient villages and eventually the vast vacant plains of Mongolia, via the Gobi desert. The deep orange sunset seen in the middle of the desert is among the best I’ve witnessed anywhere.” – Ryan Gray

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The train specialises in day trips to Kent, Hampshire, Oxfordshire and Surrey

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The train specialises in day trips to Kent, Hampshire, Oxfordshire and SurreyCredit: Alamy
Passengers can enjoy a variety of meals while on board, including brunch, a champagne afternoon tea, or a gourmet dinner

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Passengers can enjoy a variety of meals while on board, including brunch, a champagne afternoon tea, or a gourmet dinnerCredit: www.belmond.com/trains/europe/uk/belmond-british-pullman

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Oil price rises on Biden Iran oil strike comments

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Oil price rises on Biden Iran oil strike comments

The price of oil has jumped 5% after US President Joe Biden said the US was discussing possible strikes by Israel on Iran’s oil industry.

Asked on a visit if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that.”

Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world, exporting around half its production abroad, mainly to China.

Since Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Monday, the price of benchmark Brent crude oil has risen 10% to $77 a barrel, although this remains below levels seen earlier this year.

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Any extended rise in energy prices raises the possibility of higher petrol prices and increased gas and electricity bills, pushing up the rate of inflation.

So far this year, weaker demand from China and ample supply from Saudi Arabia have acted to hold down oil prices.

The reaction in oil markets has, so far, been far more muted than, for example, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But the escalation of violence in the Middle East and threat of further action is now stalking the markets.

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Of particular concern is whether any escalation could block the Straits of Hormuz, through which a third of oil tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas has to pass.

Since Russia’s war with Ukraine began, the world has become more dependent on shipped frozen gas in LNG tankers.

Even if it is Asia that is most physically dependent on the flow of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf, the immediate price impact of such developments would be significant.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned on Thursday of the “very serious” potential impact and that he was watching developments “extremely closely”.

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All this could come at the very moment the world’s central bankers declared a quiet victory over the three-year inflation shock from the pandemic and Ukraine war.

It may help explain why G7 leaders are trying to moderate the expected response from Israel to Iran’s attack.

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Aldi shoppers rush to buy stylish homeware essential scanning at tills for just 49p

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Aldi shoppers rush to buy stylish homeware essential scanning at tills for just 49p

SAVVY shoppers are rushing to Aldi to get their hands on bargain home accessories scanning for just pennies.

The set of three textured vases in cream costs a mere 49p and for that you get three different styles.

This minimalist vase set costs less than 50p at Aldi

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This minimalist vase set costs less than 50p at AldiCredit: Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK

A shopper on the Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK Facebook group posted her find saying simply “49p Aldi!”

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Other members immediately reacted. “This is what I was looking for,” cried one woman, who said she hadn’t been able to find them.

“I paid £1.99 last week,” said another. 

A third poster simply added “Wow!”

Read more on finding bargains

The vase set was originally on sale in Aldi’s middle aisle for £4.99 and available in neutral shades grey and beige, as well as cream, to suit all styles of decor.

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According to Aldi they are “perfect for filling with flowers or pampas grass” and tap into the trend for more organic forms in home decoration, emphasised by their textured finish.

We announced their arrival back in June so this is the retailer clearing stock for new lines, but at a tenth of their original price, they’re worth getting your hands on before they disappear for good.

Bear in mind availability will vary between stores – you can find Aldi’s store locator on its website.

B&M has an almost identical three-vase set on its website for £6, or this Bubble Paper Mache version selling for £5 and this Circular Sculpture for £6.

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What are Aldi Specialbuys?

H&M, too, has a similar set in light beige, but these mini stoneware vases will set you back £12.99. 

Tesco launched its new homewares range last month and you can find a cute recycled heart vase for just £3 and an apothecary-style bud vase for only £1.50.

To get the most for your money always shop around, comparing prices between retailers.

Use platforms such as Google Shopping and apps such Latest Deals or Trolley to check the best prices on particular products. 

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Check out discount code websites and sign up to cashback sites, including Quidco and TopCashback to earn money while you spend.

Facebook groups like Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK are a great way to discover what’s on offer in a wealth of stores, while following your favourite brands on social media and signing up to their newsletters mean you’ll be first to hear about new deals and discounts.

For other ways to save at Aldi keep an eye on their regular special buys, check for price reductions in store and on the website, and watch out for red stickers while you’re doing your grocery shop.

Speaking of groceries, Aldi’s Super Six is another great way to save money on your shopping, with six fruit and vegetables on special offer every fortnight. 

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Signing up to the Aldi newsletter will also bring you special offers from time to time and look out for money-off vouchers in newspapers.

When’s the best time to shop at Aldi?

WHEN it comes to shopping at Aldi, the best time to do so depends on what you want to buy.

For reduced items – when shops open

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Red sticker items are rare at Aldi’s 830 UK stores, but the supermarket says that none of its food goes to waste so there are some to be found – if you’re quick.

A spokesman for the supermarket said: “All items are reduced to 50 per cent of the recommend sales price before stores open on their best before or use by dates.”

That means you have the best chance of finding reduced food items if you go into stores as soon as it opens.

Opening times vary by shop but a majority open from 7am or 8am. You can find your nearest store’s times by using the supermarket’s online shop finder tool.

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For Specialbuys – Thursdays and Sundays

Specialbuys are Aldi’s weekly collection of items that it doesn’t normally sell, which can range from pizza ovens to power tools.

New stock comes into stores every Thursday and Sunday, so naturally, these are the best days to visit for the best one-off special deals.

For an even better chance of bagging the best items, head there for your local store’s opening time.

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Remember: once they’re gone, they’re gone, so if there’s something you really want, visit as early as possible

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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EU sues Hungary over new security law

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Brussels is suing Viktor Orbán’s government over a new security law that the bloc says is in breach of citizens’ fundamental rights, the latest escalation in long-running tensions with Budapest.

The European Commission said on Thursday the Hungarian “sovereignty law” that entered into force in February violated EU rules on privacy, freedom of expression and freedom of association. People and organisations deemed a threat to national sovereignty in Hungary — a loosely defined concept — and who are accused of using foreign funding to influence political processes are facing fines and prison terms.

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“The law violates several fundamental freedoms of the internal market,” the commission said. Brussels had already requested changes this year but “most of the grievances” remain unaddressed.

During his 14 years in office, Prime Minister Orbán has repeatedly locked horns with Brussels over the gradual erosion of civil rights and the rule of law. His self-styled illiberal regime is often cited as a model by right-wing politicians including US presidential contender Donald Trump.

The EU will refer the case to the European Court of Justice and request “that the case is dealt with swiftly, including if appropriate through an expedited procedure”, according to commission spokeswoman Jördis Ferroli.

Dániel Hegedűs, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a US think-tank based in Berlin, said: “The government has increased room to crack down on dissent, they created this tool precisely to use it. There will be more surveillance of regime critics and more of a media campaign against them, but it remains to be seen whether there will be criminal cases too.”

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Orbán’s chief of staff Gergely Gulyás said the commission’s move was politically motivated, arguing that the dedicated agency enforcing the Hungarian law had “no power of a state authority so it could not possibly breach fundamental laws”.

The decision comes alongside several other legal steps Brussels is taking against Hungary on other issues. The commission has called out Orbán’s government over a law adopted last year that penalises convicted human traffickers very lightly, making it harder for the bloc to fight illegal migration.

“Such shortened sanctions applicable to persons sentenced for migrant smuggling offences are neither effective nor dissuasive,” the commission said.

The law on traffickers was adopted despite Orbán’s declared desire for “ethnic homogeneity” and his incendiary rhetoric against migrants, which he calls a fundamental challenge to the social and cultural make-up of Europe.

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A recent ECJ ruling has also ordered Budapest to pay €200mn and daily €1mn fines for failing to comply with a judgment on the protection of asylum seekers.

Brussels is also pursuing Hungary over a special tax regime that allegedly imposes unfair increased costs on foreign companies in breach of EU law.

The move comes after a complaint by Austrian supermarket chain Spar earlier in the year claiming that a special tax introduced in 2022 was discriminatory, including a 4.5 per cent tax targeting revenues of foreign-owned retailers and an obligation to lower prices on specific products.

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True Potential CEO Daniel Harrison steps down after seven years

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True Potential CEO Daniel Harrison steps down after seven years

True Potential chief executive Daniel Harrison will be stepping down after seven years in the role.

Harrison’s departure, which has been kept under wraps, is part of a planned transition following the firm’s partnership with Cinven in September 2021.

Money Marketing understands that the announcement was given to staff today (October 3) at the firm’s annual conference.

Harrison said: “While I understand this news may come as a surprise, I want to assure everyone that this decision was made with the future of True Potential in mind.

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“Since partnering with Cinven, we have focused on developing a strong executive team that is well-prepared to lead the firm into the future.

“I am confident that True Potential is in excellent hands.”

Maxim Crewe, partner and head of the financial services and consumer teams at Cinven, added: “One of our key attractions to invest in True Potential was the client-centric culture that Daniel and his co-founders have established.

“We will continue to uphold these key values and continue to invest in the business to support True Potential on its growth journey.

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“We thank Daniel for all of his contributions over the many years.”

Harrison co-founded True Potential alongside his father, David, 17 years ago.

They have since developed the Newcastle-based wealth firm into an investment powerhouse, with over 500,000 clients and £31.4bn invested on its platform.

Daniel Harrison has served as CEO since 2017 and has been instrumental in driving the firm’s approach to wealth management.

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Under his leadership, True Potential has hit significant milestones, including achieving a compound annual growth rate of 39% in turnover and 40% in profits.

In 2021, True Potential sold a majority stake to private equity firm Cinven for an undisclosed sum.

The investment was to continue the firm’s organic growth and develop its investment technology platform.

Last year, David Harrison stepped down from his role as chair of True Potential. He is succeeded by Andrew Sibbald, who has been deputy chair since April 2023.

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Top block trader Andrew Liebeskind exits LMR hedge fund after 10 months

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Top Wall Street block trader Andrew Liebeskind has left hedge fund LMR Partners after less than a year, according to people with knowledge of his exit.

Liebeskind had joined the $11bn multi-strategy hedge fund in New York at the end of December last year to lead its equity capital markets division. He was previously head of primary strategies at Surveyor Capital, which is an equity investing part of Ken Griffin’s Citadel, the world’s best-performing hedge fund.

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The reason for Liebeskind’s departure is unclear. LMR declined to comment. Liebeskind did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Block trading is a lucrative corner of equity markets, in which banks auction large stakes in listed companies on behalf of shareholders. It is highly relationship driven: investment banks typically seek to gauge demand for potential deals before they have been made public, while not divulging private information to hedge fund clients.

Liebeskind was one of a group of prominent hedge fund traders subpoenaed by US authorities as part of a Securities and Exchange Commission probe into block trading practices, according to two people with direct knowledge of a subpoena issued in 2021.

The fact that Liebeskind’s communications were sought by US authorities as part of the probe was public knowledge when LMR hired him. Liebeskind was not accused of any wrongdoing.

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As part of this investigation, the SEC charged Morgan Stanley’s former head of the bank’s US equity syndicate, Pawan Passi, with fraud. The bank entered into a non-prosecution agreement with the US attorney’s office in Manhattan, paying a $249mn penalty earlier this year to settle civil and criminal charges.

Passi admitted to misconduct and agreed a deferred prosecution agreement with the US attorney. US authorities ultimately found no wrongdoing beyond Morgan Stanley and Passi.

LMR was founded in 2009 by Ben Levine, Andrew Manuel and Stefan Renold. They received seed capital from Donald Sussman’s Paloma Partners. Manuel left in 2015.

In 2018 Goldman Sachs’ Petershill Partners, which buys minority stakes in alternative asset managers, bought a stake in LMR. Last month Petershill announced it had sold its entire LMR stake back to the firm’s leadership team for a total consideration of up to $258mn.

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LMR employs more than 300 people in offices in London, Hong Kong, New York, Zurich, Glasgow, Dubai and Dublin. It adopts a market-neutral approach to trading systematic and discretionary strategies, across a range of markets including equities, fixed income and commodities.

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