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What a Middle East oil price shock could mean for US consumers

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This article is an on-site version of our Energy Source newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Tuesday and Thursday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters

Good morning and welcome back to Energy Source, coming to you from New York.

More than a million households remained without power in the US south-east as of yesterday evening, after Hurricane Helene devastated the region, killing more than 180 people and making the storm the deadliest since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Down in west Texas, former president Donald Trump hosted a private fundraising event in Midland yesterday, where he made a pitch to oil donors for cash as his campaign enters its final stretch.

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The world is holding its breath as it awaits Israel’s widely expected retaliation against Iran for its missile barrage on Tuesday. The FT has a breakdown on how the IDF could respond, including attacks on Iran’s missile launchers or oil infrastructure.

Today’s Energy Source breaks down what this rapid escalation in the Middle East could mean for the US oil market, just as the country prepares to cast votes in the presidential election.

Thanks for reading,

Amanda

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Is the US prepared for a Middle East oil shock?

The prospect of an all-out regional war in the Middle East is higher than ever this week as the world braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack.

The rapid escalation woke up an oil market that had otherwise been complacent about the Middle East conflict, which has caused no major supply disruptions. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed as high as $76.03 before closing at $73.90 yesterday. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, closed 0.4 per cent higher at $70.10 a barrel.

The fear among traders is that an Israeli retaliation could target oil infrastructure in Iran, an Opec member that exports about 1.7mn barrels of oil a day. An attack could also move the region closer to a worst-case scenario for the oil market where Opec production is compromised and Tehran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for crude, sending prices spiralling into the triple digits.

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Ben Hoff, global head of commodity strategy at Société Générale, said: “It’s like a game of Jenga, where the question really becomes, once you’re at the seventh or eighth block, which one is it going to be that just ends up being a little bit too much, and the whole thing collapses on itself?”

Line chart of $ per barrel showing Crude prices are inching higher

What does this mean for the US? Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources and a donor to Donald Trump’s election campaign, warned the US was “unusually vulnerable” to a Middle East oil shock, blaming the Joe Biden administration policies for leaving the US shale patch in “weakened condition”.

But it’s not the 1970s any more. Thanks to the shale revolution, the US is the largest oil and gas producer, with output sitting at record highs. An oil shock from the Middle East is not going to devastate the US economy in the same way as it did then.

“The US is the most prepared out of any developed [economy] . . . to handle a significant disruption in the Middle East,” said Hunter Kornfeind, an oil market analyst at Rapidan Energy Group.

Line chart of Million barrels a day  showing US oil production sits at record highs

That’s not to say higher crude prices from market fears or a real disruption to global supplies won’t pinch consumers. 

While the US became a net exporter of petroleum in 2020, it remains a net importer of crude oil that’s often used in refineries, with imports totalling 6.48mn b/d last year, about a quarter of which is from Opec and the Gulf, according to the Energy Information Administration. Higher global market prices for oil will drive up the price of refined products such as petrol and diesel for American consumers.

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The US has a “big bridge cushion” of crude inventories to help mediate the effect of any price swings, say analysts. The country has about 383mn barrels (about 50 per cent capacity) left in its strategic petroleum reserve, which was created in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, in addition to 413mn barrels in commercial crude inventories. The US consumes roughly 20mn barrels of petroleum a day.

Line chart of Monthly net imports, millions of barrels a day showing US remains a net importer of crude oil

The White House began releasing oil from the SPR in 2021 ahead of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to keep down domestic petrol prices. It released another 180mn barrels of oil from the reserve in 2022 after sanctions on Russia brought fears of supply disruptions.

Trump and his supporters, including Hamm, claim the Biden administration has left the country exposed to an oil shock, with Trump vowing to fill up the SPR “immediately” if elected in November.

Analysts brushed off the concerns. “The SPR is lower than it was pre-Ukraine. But at the same time, it still has enough to offset any kind of supply interruption at least for an immediate period,” Kornfeind said.

Absent a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, there’s also a lot of spare capacity from Opec sitting on the sidelines. Since late 2022, the oil cartel has artificially cut output, totalling about 5.7 per cent of global crude consumption in an effort to boost prices during weak global demand. In a meeting yesterday, top Opec+ ministers left their oil policy unchanged.

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“The market remains bearish on fundamentals for next year and does not believe oil supplies will be at risk despite the escalation,” said Amrita Sen, founder and managing director of Energy Aspects. “Prices may fall back after the initial rally.”

Line chart of Weekly stocks of crude oil in Strategic Petroleum Reserve, millions of barrels showing US emergency crude stockpiles are half full

Perhaps the biggest consequences for the US from higher global crude prices is at the ballot box. Escalatory action in the Middle East could drive up gasoline prices, just as Americans go to the polls next month to pick their next president.

Henning Gloystein, practice head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, said: “If there’s any major oil price spikes, that will be immediately felt at the pump, and that’s what American voters care about more than anything else in terms of daily pricing.”

A rise in petrol prices in the coming weeks was a “bad situation” for the election prospects of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, he added.

Power Points

  • TotalEnergies warns it will curb UK investments and restructure North Sea operations if the government increases its windfall tax as planned

  • Chinese investment abroad is surging from record levels as the country’s clean energy sector looks to set up manufacturing operations abroad in the face of US and EU tariffs.

  • Opinion: Alan Beattie explains why the US can’t impose its will over global trade in electric cars.


Energy Source is written and edited by Jamie Smyth, Myles McCormick, Amanda Chu, Tom Wilson and Malcolm Moore, with support from the FT’s global team of reporters. Reach us at energy.source@ft.com and follow us on X at @FTEnergy. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.

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KLM unveils measures aimed at boosting profits by €450 million

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KLM unveils measures aimed at boosting profits by €450 million

Plans include the optimisation of aircraft layouts, and the postponement of investment in a new headquarters

Continue reading KLM unveils measures aimed at boosting profits by €450 million at Business Traveller.

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Anglo American chief says not ‘inevitable’ buyer will emerge after group slims down

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The chief executive of Anglo American on Thursday said it is not “inevitable” a new buyer for the group will emerge after it has sold off four major parts of its business following BHP’s failed £39bn takeover attempt.

Duncan Wanblad played down the prospects a suitor will make a bid after it accelerated plans to slim down the group following the hostile move by its Australian rival, which collapsed in May.

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He intends to offload Anglo’s De Beers diamond arm, coal, nickel and platinum units, that will leave a copper, iron ore and fertiliser business at the end of the process.

Speaking at the Joburg Indaba mining conference, Wanblad said even though Anglo will earn 60 per cent of its revenue from copper, this would not necessarily make it irresistible for potential buyers, as some analysts had speculated.

“I don’t believe this is inevitable at all,” he said. “To the extent that we are valued in the context of the sum of our parts and fully valued, we will be a very viable, standalone company.”

Wanblad said the company is still on track to finalise the restructuring by next year, but cannot predict what will happen after that.

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Duncan Wanblad, chief executive of Anglo American, speaks at the conference
Duncan Wanblad, chief executive of Anglo American, said the group’s remaining businesses provide ‘a very compelling option on what the world is desperately going to need for decades to come’ © Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg

“I cannot say what other people are going to do from a corporate action point of view and I don’t really care about that — what I care about is delivering on the strategy,” he said.

This underscored the sentiment he expressed last week at the Financial Times Mining Summit in London, where he said that should Anglo become a takeover target, would-be buyers would need to “pay the right number” for the company.

Anglo’s stock price has fallen about 12 per cent since BHP made its takeover offer in April.

After the demerger, Anglo would be a much smaller operator, with a streamlined portfolio geared towards commodities that analysts say have much better prospects.

Wanblad said Anglo’s remaining businesses provide “a very compelling option on what the world is desperately going to need for decades to come”.

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This view is shared by his rivals, such as BHP, that expect copper demand to surge in the coming years because it is a vital for the clean energy transition.

Anglo’s copper assets were central to BHP’s offer — and some experts expect it to make another bid for the company.

However, takeover rules specify a six-month cooling-off period, which means BHP cannot return with another offer until November 29.

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M&G hires exec to expand £62bn PruFund range   

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M&G hires exec to expand £62bn PruFund range   

M&G has appointed Kirsty Wright in the newly created role of director of PruFund proposition.

The appointment comes a month after M&G exited the platform market to focus on its life business.

Wright, who has over 17 years’ experience, joins from LV=, where she was head of wealth proposition.

She is tasked with developing M&G’s new propositions within its £62bn multi-asset PruFund range.

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Wright said: “PruFund is a unique proposition in the market and has a fantastic reputation for delivering for customers.

“I look forward to the next stage of PruFund’s development as we seek to widen its distribution, providing more advisers with access to well-diversified, low-volatility investment solutions for their clients, which give them the confidence to invest and grow their savings over the long term.”

The fund, first launched in 2004, has over 450,000 customers advised by 5,000 advice firms.

It is designed to meet increasing customer demand for long-term savings solutions across major tax wrappers, including onshore and offshore bonds, Isas and pensions.

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Most recently, clients have been able to access the range of funds via a platform for the first time.

M&G said it will now focus its strategy on making PruFund as accessible as possible by replicating this model across multiple platforms in order to drive growth.

The fund’s smoothing mechanism helps to reduce the impact of market fluctuations and has delivered an annualised return of 5.38% over the last 20 years.

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Folie à Deux film review

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“Is that all there is?” Peggy Lee sang in the famous 1969 tune of the same name, one of the few American standards not to feature in Joker: Folie à Deux. It may still be what you end up whistling. Five years after the wildly popular Joker made a hoofer out of Joaquin Phoenix, the sequel is now here to keep everyone dancing.

Singing too. In the wake of that phenomenal success, it became apparent that the follow-up would be, of all things, a musical. Lady Gaga was to co-star. For director Todd Phillips, the idea was very on-brand. It could either land as creative audacity or mere giggly trolling, as if trying to give Joker’s stylised gloom the most jarring frame imaginable.

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It has now been imagined. An opening pastiche Looney Tunes cartoon sets the tone for all that follows: less zany than it sounds, and still tethered to events in the first film. But where Joker flirted with clammy nihilism, the incels are at least now shaken off. The new movie is a romance, staged between Phoenix’s Arthur Fleck, the sad clown behind the Joker, and Gaga’s arsonist Harleen Quinzel, also stuck in Arkham Psychiatric Hospital. (The facility is harsh, though the movie’s own crude take on mental health may not be far from that of the guards.) 

Love kindles with a blaze in a screening of Fred Astaire musical The Band Wagon. Its set-piece number “That’s Entertainment!” is revived in the new film. So are many others. The movie is stuffed with showtunes: “If My Friends Could See Me Now”, “For Once In My Life”, and more, belted out by the stars in dreamlike reveries. 

‘The plot grinds on’: Steve Coogan and Joaquin Phoenix

In between, the plot grinds on with Arthur’s trial for crimes committed in the last film. Narratively, that is pretty much that. Phoenix hits his relevant notes, but even the soundtrack is drowned out by his face-pulling. And while Gaga works hard enough to bump up the star rating alone, the thinness of her role makes Phillips seem like the dog that caught the car. He wanted her in the movie, without a clue what to do next.

If the first Joker had a purpose beyond generating memes, it was letting Phoenix loose in a rathole New York Photoshopped from Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver and King of Comedy. The result won its loudest fans among people who hadn’t seen either movie. (A cynic might say any movies.) Costumes and vibes stay rooted in the same time and place. That remains the film’s grandest flight of fancy. By contrast, the characters’ inner worlds, where the songs unfold, are naggingly flat. Opinions will differ if the lack of imagination is theirs, or down to the director.

Still, enough money has been spent promoting the project to mean you may have to go into space to avoid seeing it. Your ticket will buy some clever moments. Phillips makes witty use of a supposed TV movie about Fleck’s original crime spree. (Like his own work, it proves critically divisive.) Actor Leigh Gill brings actual gravity to a scene as Arthur’s broken former pal. And the film is less dislikeable than its forebear.

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It can also be deeply boring. In line with Phillips’ fondness for open questions, the point may be that we live our lives in fantasy. Or in the end, perhaps there is no point at all.

★★★☆☆

In cinemas from October 4

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How to double your days off in 2025 with only 23 days annual leave

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How to double your days off in 2025 with only 23 days annual leave

IF the end of summer leaves you feeling a little blue, planning a getaway for next year can help lift your spirits.  

Even better, plotting next year’s holiday early also means you you can stretch your annual leave by taking time off work around bank holidays.  

Make most of your time off by booking around bank holidays

1

Make most of your time off by booking around bank holidaysCredit: Alamy

By strategically booking time off around bank holidays, you can maximise your holiday allowance.

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This effective planning trick means that in 2025 you could get a bumper 53 days of holiday with just 23 days of annual leave.

It tends to be easier to fully switch off from work and feel more refreshed if time off is taken over longer stretches.

You don’t have to jet off on a fancy holiday, the days can be used to relax, do odd jobs or just spend time with family and friends.

However you want to use your time, the key to getting longer breaks is with some careful planning.

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Here’s how to make the most of your annual leave next year…

EASTER

  • Book four days of holiday to get 10 days off

Next year Easter Sunday next year falls relatively late on April 20. This makes the Good Friday Bank Holiday April 18 and the Easter Monday on April 21.

If you schedule days off around the bank holidays, you will be able to get a 10-day stretch off work, including the weekend with just four days of annual leave – and you have a couple of options.

Either book off Monday April 14 through to Thursday April 17.

Or book from Tuesday April 22 until Friday April 25.

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My easy mistake on a girl’s holiday cost me £10K

Either way, you’ll get a 10-day break, including weekends, in exchange for four days annual leave.

And if you’re looking for one long period off, you could book all eight days off work to get 16 days off work, including the weekends.

MAY

  • Book four days of holiday to get nine days off – twice

In May, you can get another nine-day break with only four days of leave thanks to bank holidays.

The first one is the Early May Bank Holiday on Monday, May 5.

Use it to then book off May 6, 7, 8 and 9, to get the nine-day stretch off from work, including two weekends.

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Or you can use the Spring Bank Holiday instead, which falls on Monday, May 26 for the nine-day stretch.

Take off Tuesday, May 27, through to Friday, May 30, meaning you’ll be off from Saturday, May 24 and then back at work on Monday, June 2.

AUGUST

  • Book four days of holiday to get nine days off

In the summer, there’s another bank holiday on Monday, August 25.

Book off four days from August 26 until 29, and in total you’ll get nine days off in a row from Saturday, August 23 until Monday, September 1.

This stretch is perfect if you have children off from school and want to take a holiday with them.

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DECEMBER

  • Book four days of holiday to get 11 days off OR seven days off for 16 days off

As the year draws to a close, there are two more bank holidays that you can take advantage of.

Next year, they will fall on Thursday, December 25 for Christmas Day, and Friday, December 26 for Boxing Day.

These national holidays give a couple of options to maximise time off.

You can book off December 22, 23 and 24, to get a nine-break from work from December 20 to Monday, December 29.

Or book off December 29, 30 and 31, as well as January 2. January 1 is another bank holiday so you don’t need to book it off.

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This way you’ll have 11 days off from work, including weekend, meaning you can relax and make the most of the festive season.

If you book off all seven working days, you’d get a lovely long break of 16 days from December 20 to January 5.

WHAT ARE THE RIGHTS TO TIME OFF?

Of course, you’ll need to make sure you get your time off agreed by your employer to make the most of bank holiday hacks.

Most employees who work a five-day week must get at least 28 days’ paid annual leave a year – the equivalent of 5.6 weeks of holiday.

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There is no obligation for employers to give these holidays on specific dates.

Often holiday is granted depending on how many other employees plan to take time off at the same time.

It’s usually on first to book off is granted the leave.

Getting in requests early can make it more likely that you’ll get the leave you want.  

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Always get time off approved before you pay for holidays or make other plans to avoid have to pay any fees to rearrange or cancel.

Average annual leave by sector

IN the UK, workers are entitled to a minimum of 28 days off work including 8 bank holidays.

But most employers offer more than this to attract talent.

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According to the IRS, the average number of holidays is 34 including bank holidays – so 26 days of annual leave.

On average, public sector employees receive 37 days including bank holidays, while private sector staff tend to receive 34 days.

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Oil surges after Joe Biden’s comments on Israeli retaliation

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Oil soared to its highest level in more than a month on Thursday as traders speculated that Israel could engage in retaliatory strikes against Iran’s oil industry.

West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as 5.5 per cent to trade at $74 per barrel after US President Joe Biden told reporters that such a move was under discussion.

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Asked whether the US would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re in discussion of that,” although in his truncated comment the US president went on to say: “I think that would be a little . . . anyway.”

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose as much as 5 per cent to hit $77.65 per barrel.

Washington has made clear it supports Israel’s right to respond militarily to Tuesday’s missile attack from Iran, and is holding frequent calls with Israeli officials as they plan their next move.

On Wednesday, Biden spoke with the other leaders of the G7 to co-ordinate sanctions on Tehran for the attack and advise Israel on its response.

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After that call, Biden said: “All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion.”

Israel is weighing several options to retaliate against Iran, including attacks on missile launchers or oil infrastructure.

Column chart of Daily % change, $ per barrel showing Biggest jump in Brent crude this year

Some Israeli officials have called for strikes against its nuclear facilities, though a person familiar with the matter said this was not being considered. Biden has also said he would oppose such an attack.

Tuesday’s strikes on Israel, in response to the assassination of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week, were much larger than an earlier Iranian attack in April, incorporating about twice as many ballistic missiles — although only a few got through Israel’s air defences.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has warned that Iran would face “severe consequences” for the strikes, which he described as “defeated and ineffective”, adding the US would “work with Israel to make that the case”.

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But analysts said that the US was not offering Israel a blank cheque for any kind of response, and that its goal was to avoid prompting further Iranian escalation.

Iran currently exports around 1.6-1.8mn barrels per day of crude and condensate, of which 1.5mn b/d goes to China, along with over 0.5mn b/d of oil products, according to Energy Aspects, a consultancy.

Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, said oil prices could be sent “spiralling higher” if Israel struck Iranian refineries and if Tehran responded by attacking other oil fields and refineries in the region.

The global oil market has been volatile since the start of the week due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, with potential disruptions to energy exports.

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However, lack of demand from China, as well as the fact that Opec+ producers are sitting on more than 5mn b/d of spare capacity, which could be brought back if Iranian supply were suddenly disrupted, had weighed on the market.

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