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2026 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, predictions, posts: Expert who nailed 12 Derby-Oaks Doubles shares picks

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When it comes to making Kentucky Derby picks, pedigree is often brought up in regard to horses and their lineage. However, pedigree also applies to a pair of trainers in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field, as they are father and son. Hall of Famer Bill Mott is saddling Chief Wallabee, while Bill’s son, Riley Mott, has two Kentucky Derby 2026 starters. The younger Mott has Albus and Incredibolt as the Mott household is praying that all three horses finish in the money.

This is Riley’s Kentucky Derby debut, while Bill is seeking his third win. Incredibolt (20-1) and Albus (30-1) are both longshots, while Chief Wallabee comes in at 8-1 for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. Per the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, the favorites are Renegade (4-1), Further Ado (6-1) and Commandment (6-1) .Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.

Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here:

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order, helping him cash a $1,682 superfecta, and called the exacta in last year’s Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up. 

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Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go to SportsLine to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1. Renegade comes in off of wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He previously lost to Paladin twice, however, and it took Renegade until his fourth race to record his first win. Demling can’t get behind him in a field this loaded, projecting that he barely finishes inside the top 10. 

“The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Into Mischief doesn’t mind the distance and has the fastest final eighth-mile on the Derby trail,” Demling told SportsLine. “He was my pick, but just too many things going against him in my opinion.” See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on The Puma at 10-1. The Puma has hit the board in all four career races, and is coming off a strong runner-up performance at the Florida Derby, falling just short in a a tight race to Commandment, who is another Kentucky Derby favorite. 

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“The son of Essential Quality is super intriguing,” Demling said. “At one point earlier in the week I thought he might be my pick; he won the Tampa Bay Derby by beating Further Ado. He narrowly lost the Florida Derby to Commandment and has a shot to win the roses.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is also high on a stunning longshot who “could be a freak.” Anyone who backs this sleeper pick could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which stunning longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds

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Waterford targets 2026 Hawkesbury Gold Cup after freshen-up

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Bay racehorse with white bridle and jockey in red‑and‑white silks racing at a track, saddle cloth number 8 visible in background.

The battle-hardened Waterford tends to claim successes across his seasons, and Chris Waller has targeted the Hawkesbury Gold Cup as a destination for quite some period.

His most recent win was in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill in September, and the seven-year-old remained sidelined after a lacklustre showing upon return in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m) on March 28.

Waller’s deputy trainer Charlie Duckworth revealed that resting Waterford for a month was a strategic choice to bypass major Sydney autumn carnival fixtures and concentrate on the upcoming Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m) this Saturday.

“Literally, it was just to wait for Hawkesbury,” Duckworth said.

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“He’s had four weeks between runs. He’s had a barrier trial, and he trialled at Hawkesbury.

“He’s more than capable of winning a race like that on his day.”

Waller sends a robust challenge to the Cup with Waterford accompanied by in-form Captain Furai after two straight wins, Osipenko from last year’s placings, Imperialist and Yet He Moves.

Waller controls much of the Clarendon Stakes (1400m) field with five from eight, starring The Autumn Sun’s progeny The Roaring Sun, who ended second to later stakes finisher Seraphox at Warwick Farm on debut this month.

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Duckworth rates the colt as having top stakes quality and expects the race to propel him towards Brisbane’s winter carnival.

“Our best two-year-old going there is The Roaring Sun. He was narrowly beaten at Warwick Farm, caught wide the trip,” Duckworth said.

“He is a genuine Group horse, and this is a race Chris has used in the past as a stepping stone (to Queensland).”

The Clarendon Stakes roll of honour features quality gallopers like Zardozi, 2023 winner who proceeded to the VRC Oaks (2500m) victory in the ensuing spring.

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Waller has repeatedly leveraged this event successfully for Brisbane campaigns with slower-maturing juveniles, exemplified by Zoustar’s 2013 success followed by the Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) at Doomben win and runner-up effort in the Group 1 J J Atkins (1600m).

Head to leading racing betting markets to find value in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup.

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McLaren boss Zak Brown gives his opinion on the resource drain suffered by Red Bull

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McLaren boss Zak Brown thinks Red Bull is just going through a phase of rebuilding and, with Laurent Mekies at the top, the team would eventually bounce back to the top. The Austrian squad has had a rough run lately, where the team continues to leak resources to rivals.

Since early 2024, some of the stalwarts of the team have left, and if one analyses the team, it does appear to be a pale shadow of itself, with next to no recognition of what it used to be in the past. Since early 2024, names like Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley, Christian Horner, and Helmut Marko have all left the squad.

The most recent one of the high-profile exits was none other than Max Verstappen‘s race engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase. The new Red Bull team principal, Laurent Mekies, on his part, is up against it right now as the team will be building its own power unit that is currently a step behind the grid benchmark in Mercedes.

At the same time, the car is also a step behind. The plight of the Austrian team was put in front of Zak Brown, who admitted that the situation might not be great for Red Bull at this moment, but they were going through a phase similar to what he went through when he joined McLaren. Backing Mekies to bring the team back to the top, the American told Motorsport,

“They have to kind of do a little bit of a reset. They lost a lot of people: Christian, Wheatley, GP [Lambiase] eventually, Newey. So much what I came into, which was a different situation because they were very competitive, but the majority of the pitwall’s changed. I rate Laurent, I think he does a very good job. He’s technical, he’s young and he’s got to rebuild the people that he lost and rebuild the team.”

He added,

“I have no doubt he will, and much like McLaren had an immense amount of talent that just needed to be unlocked, I think that’s probably the same as Red Bull. They’ve been very dominant up to not very long ago, so there’s a lot of talent in there and I think he’ll just need to get it redirected.”

Foolish to write off Red Bull: McLaren boss

After the first three races of the season, a performance pattern did emerge. We had Mercedes as the benchmark, followed by both Ferrari and McLaren. Red Bull, on the other hand, appeared to be dialled in at Melbourne, but the next two tracks in China and Japan saw Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar fight in the midfield.

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Zak Brown felt that counting out a team like Red Bull, and even a brand like Audi, would be foolish at this point. It was still just the start of the regulations, and it’ll take time for the grid to reach a stable pecking order. He said,

“It would be very foolish to write Red Bull off, I also think Audi’s done a very good job. So I think it would be foolish to not think the other teams are going to move up the grid quickly. Things are only going to consolidate over time, not widen. We see how quickly the sport can change and how people quickly can get competitive and then sometimes not.”

Heading into the F1 Miami GP race weekend, both McLaren and Red Bull are keeping an eye on the major upgrade packages that both outfits are bringing. If they work, the teams can make a significant jump, but at the same time, if they don’t, it could mean there’s a steep climb ahead for either of them.