U.S. crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday for a third consecutive session of gains, as the market braces for Israel to retaliate against Iran.

The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.

U.S. crude oil has gained 5% this week.

Here are Thursday’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate November contract: $71.53 per barrel, up $1.46, or 2.08%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is nearly flat.
• Brent December contract: $75.29 per barrel, up $1.39, or 1.88%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 2%.
• RBOB Gasoline November contract:  $2.0242 per gallon, up 1.93%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back nearly 4%.
• Natural Gas November contract: $2.0243 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.98%. Year to date, gas has gained more than 16%.

“This spare capacity is for now preventing runaway prices amid one of the deepest and most pervasive crises in the Middle East in the past four decades,” Galimberti told clients in a Thursday note.

OPEC+ spare capacity would be sufficient to cover a disruption to Iran’s exports if Israel strikes the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure as retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB.

But traders would begin to worry about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Schieldrop said. “That would add a significant risk premium to oil,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”

As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran’s oil infrastructure, he said.

Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.

It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.

Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.

“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.

Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”

Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.

“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.

“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.

“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.

She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.

“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”

The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.

Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.

“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.

Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”

“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.

“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Geopolitical uncertainty  
Major U.S. indexes all closed slightly above the flatline on Wednesday. Oil prices continued rising, helping energy stocks outperform. Nike fell 6.8% and Tesla lost 3.5%. Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 2% as the yen slipped, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped around 1.4% after enjoying a strong rally on Wednesday.

Yen slides on Ishiba’s dovish comments 
The Japanese yen fell to as low as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar during Asia trading hours today on dovish comments from new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. “I do not believe that we are in an environment that would require us to raise interest rates further,” Ishiba said Wednesday. Analysts, however, think the Bank of Japan will still raise rates by early 2025. 

OpenAI’s $157 billion valuation 
OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in its latest funding round, putting it at a valuation of $157 billion. The round was led by Thrive Capital – which planned to invest $1 billion – and included participation from Microsoft, Nvidia and Softbank, said a person with knowledge of the matter.  

Behind India’s booming market 
India Nifty 50 index is up 18.7% year to date, hitting record highs on its way there. Several factors are driving its rally: public infrastructure investments by the government, companies diversifying their supply chains away from China to India, healthy economic growth, a growing population and lower U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates.  

[PRO] Opportunities amid disruptions 
Strikes by longshoremen at U.S. coastal ports are only the latest in a series of supply chain disruptions we’ve experienced in recent years. While those interruptions are generally bad for the global economy by increasing shipment prices and delivery times, Goldman Sachs thinks some stocks can benefit from such events.

You’d expect that markets would have been shaken by that threat to the global economy. But all major U.S. indexes managed to close just a tad above the flatline. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.09% gain and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08%. 

Headwinds blowing from Middle East might have been tempered by optimism in China.  

Lifted by Beijing’s recent announcement of economic stimulus, Chinese stocks have been on a tear. That’s caused U.S. exchange-traded funds that track Chinese stocks to rally, helping to keep the U.S. market afloat amid worries over the escalating Middle East conflict. 

Indeed, U.S. stocks tend to benefit whenever the Chinese government unleashes economic stimulus and credit expansion, according to Ryan Grabinski, strategist at Strategas Securities. 

Here’s the flipside of globalization: Negative developments in one part of the world may weigh down others, but positive ones will radiate optimism beyond their origin. 

– CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed to this story.   

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Geopolitical uncertainty  
Major U.S. indexes all closed slightly above the flatline on Wednesday. Oil prices continued rising, helping energy stocks outperform. Nike fell 6.8% and Tesla lost 3.5%. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 inched up 0.05%. Defense stocks like Saab and Thales rose in response to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.  

OpenAI’s $157 billion valuation 
OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in its latest funding round, putting it at a valuation of $157 billion. The round was led by Thrive Capital – which planned to invest $1 billion – and included participation from Microsoft, Nvidia and Softbank, said a person with knowledge of the matter.  

Tesla’s deliveries missed expectations 
Tesla stocks fell 3.5% after it reported deliveries that missed expectations. In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles, slightly below the 463,310 estimate compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. Tesla doesn’t report sales numbers for specific models or regions, so deliveries are the closest approximation to them. 

More-than-expected private jobs added 
The U.S. private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, according to a report by payrolls processing firm ADP. That’s more than the 128,000 predicted by economists polled by Dow Jones and higher than August’s upwardly revised figure of 103,000. It’s a sign that the labor market isn’t as flabby as some had feared. 

[PRO] October’s volatility has begun 
The S&P 500 moves an average of more than 1% in either direction each day in October, according to CNBC Pro analysis, based on FactSet data going back to 1950. And October is already living up to that reputation, writes CNBC Pro’s Fred Imbert. Here’s how one Wall Street analyst is preparing for the historically choppy month.

You’d expect that markets would have been shaken by that threat to the global economy. But all major U.S. indexes managed to close just a tad above the flatline. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.09% gain and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08%. 

Headwinds blowing from Middle East might have been tempered by optimism in China.  

Lifted by Beijing’s recent announcement of economic stimulus, Chinese stocks have been on a tear. That’s caused U.S. exchange-traded funds that track Chinese stocks to rally, helping to keep the U.S. market afloat amid worries over the escalating Middle East conflict. 

Indeed, U.S. stocks tend to benefit whenever the Chinese government unleashes economic stimulus and credit expansion, according to Ryan Grabinski, strategist at Strategas Securities. 

Here’s the flipside of globalization: Negative developments in one part of the world may weigh down others, but positive ones will radiate optimism beyond their origin. 

– CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed to this story.