Connect with us

Business

The Israel-Hamas war — in maps and charts

Published

on

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

  • Latest situation: Hizbollah device explosions cause deaths in Lebanon as Israel extends war aims

  • Human impact: Death toll in Gaza crosses 40,000; around 100 hostages in captivity; aid worker deaths rise

  • Food and water insecurity: UN warns food supplies to Gaza dwindling as famine looms

  • Infrastructure damage: More than half of Gaza’s buildings damaged by fighting

  • Key events in the war: From Hamas’s October 7 attack to Israel’s incursions

Latest situation: Hizbollah device explosions cause deaths in Lebanon as Israel extends war aims

Walkie-talkies and other wireless communication devices used by Hizbollah were detonated across Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 14 people and injuring at least 450, a day after thousands of pagers exploded.

The fresh blasts compounded the country’s shock from the initial pager attack on Tuesday, which Hizbollah blamed on Israel, vowing revenge.

Advertisement

The latest deaths and injuries brought the toll from the two days of blasts to 26 dead, including at least two children, and more than 3,000 injured.

Hizbollah and Israel are already engaged in a war of attrition across the Israel-Lebanon border, which has raised fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant signalled on Wednesday that the country was entering a new phase of fighting on its northern border with Lebanon.

He spoke after the Israeli army’s 98th Division — which includes paratroopers and commando units — was ordered to move to Israel’s northern border, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Advertisement

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday: “I’ve already said we will return the residents of the north securely to their homes. And this is precisely what we will do.”

Human impact: Death toll in Gaza rises above 40,000; around 100 hostages still in captivity; aid worker deaths rise

The Israel Defense Forces launched air and land offensives in Gaza in response to Hamas’s cross-border assault in southern Israel. Hamas killed more than 1,200 people during the October 7 attack and seized about 250 hostages, according to Israeli officials, who say around 100 hostages remain in captivity.

The death toll from Israel’s offensive in Gaza passed 40,000 in August, according to Palestinian health officials.

According to data from UN OCHA and Israeli human rights group B’Tselem, around 640 Palestinians in the West Bank and about 1,900 Israelis and foreign nationals in Israel have been killed since October.

Advertisement

After October 7, the IDF moved into northern Gaza before sweeping south towards Khan Younis and then Rafah. More than 2mn people in Gaza have been displaced by the conflict, with many leaving Rafah and some moving to al-Mawasi or other IDF-declared “humanitarian areas”.

Humanitarian workers inside Gaza have faced significant danger during the conflict, with an unprecedented number being killed.

Food and water insecurity: UN warns food supplies to Gaza dwindling as famine looms

Food supplies into Gaza have diminished even further since international experts raised the threat of famine in the enclave, according to the regional director of the World Food Programme.

“We clearly don’t manage to bring enough food into Gaza,” Corinne Fleischer told the Financial Times in August after returning from the territory, citing access problems including the closure of most crossings, long delays at Israeli checkpoints and looting by gangs inside Gaza.

Advertisement

Fleischer said the WFP needed to bring in 24,000 tonnes of food per month to feed 1.1mn people, or half Gaza’s population. UNRWA, the other main UN agency working in Gaza, is responsible for feeding the other half.

Aid deliveries containing urgently needed food, water and medical supplies have not been able to enter Gaza at their usual levels since the war began. The shortages have worsened since IDF troops took “operational control” of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing on May 6.

The US built a $230mn floating pier to help get more aid into Gaza, but shipments were affected by storms and poor sea conditions, and the project was mothballed in July.

Since Israel launched its Gaza offensive, damage to infrastructure and lack of fuel and electricity have also led to a severe water shortage.

Before the war, Gaza sourced most of its water from an underground aquifer or from Israeli state-owned water company Mekorot. According to an April UN OCHA report, two of the Mekorot pipelines have been closed and the third is operating at only partial capacity. Israel has recently moved towards reopening them after pressure from the US.

Meanwhile, only one of the six wastewater treatment plants and two out of three desalination plants are partially working.

Map of Gaza showing the 3 desalination plants, 6 wastewater treatment plants and the 3 Mekorot water pipeline connections. Sources: World Bank, UN OCHA

Infrastructure damage: More than half of Gaza’s buildings damaged by fighting

According to damage assessments from researchers at the CUNY Graduate Center and Oregon State University, more than half of all buildings across the Gaza Strip have suffered damage, rising to nearly 80 per cent in Gaza City.

The damage in Khan Younis and Rafah has also increased as Israel expanded its offensive from northern Gaza to the rest of the territory.

Map showing buildings likely damaged in Gaza between October 5 and October 12, December 4, August 26. Damage until December 4 is concentrated in North Gaza and Gaza. Damage to April 21 covers the entire strip, with much of Deir al-Balah, Khan Younis and Rafah damaged. Source: damage analysis of Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite data by Corey Scher of CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University

October 9 2023 to present: Key events in the war and region

September 18 2024

Hizbollah walkie-talkies explode in Lebanon in second day of blasts

September 18 2024

Hizbollah vows to retaliate against Israel over pager explosions

Advertisement
SEPTEMBER 17 2024

Israel adds securing northern front against Hizbollah to war aims

SEPTEMBER 10 2024

ICC prosecutor seeks ‘urgent’ arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

SEPTEMBER 6 2024

US protester shot dead in West Bank

SEPTEMBER 6 2024

US military draws up plans for collapse of Gaza ceasefire talks

Advertisement
September 4 2024

Netanyahu’s defiance leaves Israel-Hamas deal out of reach

September 2 2024

Strike action paralyses much of Israel after hostage deaths

September 1 2024

Israel retrieves bodies of six hostages, including US citizen

august 29 2024

Death toll rises as Israel’s operation in West Bank enters second day

Advertisement
AUGUST 27 2024

Israeli hostage taken by Hamas rescued from Gaza

AUGUST 25 2024

Israel and Hizbollah engage in their biggest exchange of fire since the 34-day war in 2006

August 16 2024

US-led mediators present ‘bridging proposal’ to end Israel-Hamas war

AUGUST 11 2024

Israel orders more Gaza evacuations as school strike death toll confirmed at 80

Advertisement
AUGUST 9 2024

US, Egypt and Qatar in urgent push to secure Israel-Hamas ceasefire

AUGUST 6 2024

Hamas picks Yahya Sinwar as new political leader

August 1 2024

Israel says it killed Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif

July 31 2024

Iran accuses Israel of killing of Hamas political leader in Tehran

Advertisement
July 30 2024

Israel says it has killed senior Hizbollah commander in Beirut strike

July 27 2024

Israeli civilians killed after rocket from Lebanon hits Golan Heights

july 22 2024

Palestinians ordered to leave Khan Younis as Israel renews offensive

July 19 2024

Yemen’s Houthis claim drone attack on Tel Aviv

Advertisement
July 13 2024

Dozens dead after Israeli air strikes target top Hamas commander

JULY 12 2024

Netanyahu says Israeli troops will stay on Egypt-Gaza border

July 11 2024

US says it will not reopen Gaza aid pier

July 4 2024

Hizbollah fires 200 rockets at Israel to avenge killing of top commander

Advertisement
June 18 2024

Israeli military approves plan for ‘offensive’ in Lebanon

June 9 2024

Israel rescues four hostages in Gaza but scores of Palestinians killed

June 6 2024

Dozens killed in Israeli strike on UN school in Gaza

May 24 2024

ICJ orders Israel to halt Rafah offensive

Advertisement
May 20 2024

ICC prosecutor requests arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Hamas leaders over alleged war crimes

May 7 2024

Israel sends troops into Rafah and seizes border crossing despite Hamas agreeing to ceasefire-for-hostages deal

April 19 2024

Israel launches calibrated retaliatory strikes against Iran

April 5 2024

Israel admits “grave mistake” after strike on World Central Kitchen aid workers

March 25 2024

UN resolution demands Gaza ceasefire

February 29 2024

More than 110 Gazans killed in deadly aid convoy chaos

December 4 2023

Israel steps up aerial bombardment on southern Gaza followed later in the month by an offensive into the city of Khan Younis

Advertisement
November 24 2023

Israel-Hamas truce takes hold ahead of planned hostage release

November 16 2023

Israeli military raids Gaza’s largest hospital in climax of siege

OCTOBER 9 2023

Israel imposes a “complete siege” on Gaza, calling up a record 300,000 reservists and pounding the strip from the air

October 7 2023: Hamas attacks Israel

As much of Israel slept, Hamas militants launched an multipronged dawn assault on the country from the Gaza Strip.

Advertisement

The assault began in the early hours of the morning on the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, with thousands of rockets fired at Israeli towns and cities. Many were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system, but satellite imagery showed fires and smoke rising from locations that were hit.

Satellite map of Gaza and Israel showing locations of fires and smoke plumes. The fires were detected by the Sentinel-2 satellite. The map uses a true colour satellite image composited with false colour image to highlight the fires. Source: Sentinel satellite data via EO Browser.

Hundreds of Hamas fighters simultaneously attacked by land, air and sea, breaching the fortified barrier between Gaza and Israel.

Militants used motorised paragliders to attack the Supernova music festival, which was taking place not far from the Gaza border. After flying in, they shot many Israelis and took others as hostages.

Map showing the location of Supernova music festival attacked by Hamas

After breaching the Gaza fence, armed Hamas fighters targeted Israeli communities and military sites at several locations, going door-to-door and performing execution-style killings as well as taking hostages.

More than 1,200 Israeli civilians and troops were killed on October 7, according to Israeli officials — making it the deadliest attack on the country since its foundation.

Visual and data team: Aditi Bhandari, Jana Tauschinski, Janina Conboye, Peter Andringa, Steven Bernard, Chris Campbell, Sam Joiner, Lucy Rodgers, Ian Bott, Dan Clark and Alan Smith

Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

Record Indian gold imports help drive bullion’s rally

Published

on

A surge in demand among Indian consumers for gold jewellery and bars after a recent cut to tariffs is helping to drive global bullion prices to a series of fresh highs.

India’s gold imports hit their highest level on record by dollar value in August at $10.06bn, according to government data released Tuesday. That implies roughly 131 tonnes of bullion imports, the sixth-highest total on record by volume, according to a preliminary estimate from consultancy Metals Focus. 

The high gold price — which is up by one-quarter since the start of the year — has traditionally deterred price-sensitive Asian buyers, with Indians reducing demand for gold jewellery in response.

But the Indian government cut import duties on gold by 9 percentage points at the end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand in the world’s second-largest buyer of gold.

Advertisement

“The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.”

The tariff cut has been a boon for Indian jewellery stores such as MK Jewels in the upmarket Mumbai suburb of Bandra West, where director Ram Raimalani said “demand has been fantastic”.

Customers were packed into the store browsing for necklaces and bangles on a recent afternoon, and Raimalani is expecting an annual sales boost of as much as 40 per cent during the multi-month festival and wedding season that runs from September to February. 

Raimalani praised India’s government and “Modi ji”, an honorific for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for reducing gold duties.

Advertisement
Column chart of tariff cut triggers import leap last month showing Indian gold imports

Expectations of rapid interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have been the main driver of gold’s huge rally this year, according to analysts. Lower borrowing costs increase the attraction of assets with no yield, such as bullion, and are also likely to weigh on the dollar, in which gold is denominated.

The Fed cut rates by half a per cent on Wednesday, pushing gold to yet another record high, just below $2,600. 

But strong demand for gold jewellery and bars, as well as buying by central banks, have also helped buoy prices. 

India accounted for about a third of gold jewellery demand last year, and has become the world’s second-largest bar and coin market, according to data from the World Gold Council, an industry body.

However, that demand has meant that domestic gold prices in India are quickly catching up to the level they were at before the tariff duty cut, according to Harshal Barot, senior research consultant at Metals Focus. 

Advertisement

“That entire benefit [of the tariff cut] has kind of vanished,” said Barot. “Now that prices are going up again, we will have to see if consumers still buy as usual.”

Jewellery buying had been flagging before the cut in import duty, with demand in India in the first half of 2024 at its lowest level since 2020, according to the World Gold Council.

India’s central bank has also been on a gold buying spree, adding 42 tonnes of gold to its reserves during the first seven months of the year — more than double its purchases for the whole of 2023. 

A person familiar with the Reserve Bank of India’s thinking called the gold purchases a “routine” part of its foreign exchange reserve and currency stability management.

Advertisement
Line chart of  showing Rate cut expectations send gold to record high

In China, the world’s biggest physical buyer of gold, high prices have meant fewer jewellery sales, but more sales of gold bars and coins, which surged 62 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier.

“We observed strong positive correlation between gold investment demand and the gold price,” wrote the World Gold Council, referring to China.

All of this has helped support the physical market and mitigate the impact that high prices can have in eroding demand. 

“It acts as a stable foundation for demand,” said Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management. “In parts of Asia, gold is readily convertible into currency,” making it popular for savings, he said.

Western investor demand has also been a big factor in bullion’s rally, with a net $7.6bn flowing into gold-backed exchange traded funds over the past four months. 

Advertisement

After hitting a fresh high on Wednesday, analysts warn there could be a correction in the gold price.

“When you have this scale of anticipation [of rate cuts], for this long, there is room for disappointment,” said Adrian Ash, London-based director of research at BullionVault, an online gold marketplace. “I think there is scope for a pullback in precious alongside other assets.”

Whether or not gold pulls back from its record highs, Indian jewellery demand looks set to remain strong through the coming wedding season, according to MK Jewels’ Raimalani.

Soaring prices of bullion have been no deterrent to his customers, he added. “Indians are the happiest when prices go high because they already own so much gold. It’s like an investment.”

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

David Lammy seeks emergency boost to aid cash to offset rising cost of migrant hotels

Published

on

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Britain’s foreign secretary David Lammy is pushing for an emergency top-up to development spending as ballooning costs of supporting asylum seekers threaten to drain overseas aid to its lowest level since 2007.

The UK government spent £4.3bn hosting asylum seekers and refugees in Britain in the last financial year, more than a quarter of its £15.4bn overseas aid budget, according to official data. This more than consumed the £2.5bn increases in the aid budget scheduled between 2022 and 2024 by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Advertisement

People familiar with Lammy’s thinking say he fears that if Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, resists calls to at least match Hunt’s offer, the aid budget will be further eviscerated, undermining the government’s ambitions on the global stage.

Currently, the housing of asylum seekers in hotels is controlled by the Home Office but largely paid for out of the aid budget, a set-up introduced in 2010 when spending on the programme was relatively modest.

In the longer term, development agencies and some Foreign Office officials want the costs capped or paid for by the Home Office itself.

However, such a move would be politically fraught, the people said, as it would require billions of pounds of extra funding for the Home Office at a time the government is preparing widespread cuts across departments.

Advertisement

Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, is due to attend a string of upcoming international events, starting with the UN general assembly this month, then a Commonwealth summit in Samoa, a G20 meeting in Brazil, and COP-29 climate talks in Azerbaijan later this autumn.

International partners will be looking at these meetings for signs that the change of government in the UK marks a change in direction on development.

Britain’s leading role was eroded by Rishi Sunak after he cut the previously ringfenced spending from 0.7 per cent of gross national income to 0.5 per cent when he was chancellor in 2020.

“When he turns up at the UN next week and the G20 and COP a few weeks later, the PM has a unique opportunity to reintroduce the UK under Labour as a trustworthy partner that sees the opportunity of rebooting and reinvesting in a reformed fairer international financial system,” said Jamie Drummond, co-founder of aid advocacy group One.

Advertisement

“But to be that trusted partner you need to be an intentional investor — not an accidental cutter.”

Speaking on Tuesday in a speech outlining UK ambitions to regain a leading role in the global response to climate change, Lammy said the government wanted to get back to spending 0.7 per cent of GNI on overseas aid but that it could not be done overnight.   

“Part of the reason the funding has not been there is because climate has driven a migration crisis,” he said. “We have ended up in this place where we made a choice to spend development aid on housing people across the country and having a huge accommodation and hotel bill as a consequence,” he said.

Under OECD rules, some money spent in-country on support for refugees and asylum seekers can be classified as aid because it constitutes a form of humanitarian assistance.

Advertisement

But the amount the UK has been spending on refugees from its aid budget has shot up from an average of £20mn a year between 2009-2013 to £4.3bn last year, far more than any other OECD donor country, according to Bond, the network of NGOs working in international development.

Spending per refugee from the aid budget has also risen from an average of £1,000 a year in 2009-2013 to around £21,500 in 2021, largely as a result of the use of hotels to accommodate asylum seekers.

The Independent Commission for Aid Impact watchdog argues that the Home Office has had little incentive to manage the funds carefully because they come from a different department’s budget.

In her July 29 speech outlining the dire fiscal straits that Labour inherited from the previous Conservative government, Reeves projected the cost of the asylum system would rise to £6.4bn this year.

Advertisement

Labour was hoping to cut this by at least £800mn, she said, by ending plans to deport migrants to Rwanda. A Home Office official said the government was also ensuring that asylum claims were dealt with faster and those ineligible deported quickly.

But the Foreign Office projects that on current trends, overseas aid as a proportion of UK income (when asylum costs are factored in) will drop to 0.35 per cent of national income by 2028.

Without emergency funding to plug the immediate cost of housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, that will happen as soon as this year, according to Bond, bringing overseas aid levels to their lowest as a proportion of national income, since 2007.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said: “The UK’s future [official development assistance] budget will be announced at the Budget. We would not comment on speculation.”

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Chinese EV makers boost Hong Kong stock index

Published

on

Electric-vehicle makers boosted Hong Kong stocks on Friday, as major indices rose across the board in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut.

The Hang Seng index rose 1.8 per cent, with Chinese EV companies Xpeng and Geely Auto adding 9 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively.

Japan’s Topix rose 1.5 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi added 1 per cent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4 per cent, led by clinical trial groups Euren Pharmaceuticals and Telix Pharmaceuticals, which gained as much as 6.7 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively.

Advertisement

On Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 1.7 per cent, hitting a new record after the Fed’s half-point rate cut announcement on Wednesday.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Published

on

Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Last week JPMorgan made headlines by announcing it planned to cap its junior bankers’ working week to 80 hours (“High pressure, long days, crushing workloads: why is investment banking like this?”, FT Alphaville, FT.com, September 13).

The media and most western professionals and other workers will see that figure as extraordinarily high — but the small print makes clear that the cap will not apply when junior bankers are working on “live” deals.

The 80-hour working week, it seems, is the routine baseline expectation.

Former investment banker Craig Coben, author of the FT Alphaville piece, outlined the history and factors that make the long-hours culture a seemingly intractable fact of life across the investment banking industry — and other related sectors such as Big Law.

Advertisement

As investment banking is a bespoke service the work cannot fit into a standard nine-to-five schedule. The question is: does this bespoke service require regular “all-nighters”?

Is this really the most efficient approach? Research shows that working long hours does not improve productivity. Studies document diminishing returns after a certain threshold — typically around 50 hours per week.

Coben also pointed to the mega-salaries junior bankers earn. In the end, there is no such thing as a free lunch in life.

They know what they are getting themselves into. The reality may not be as glamorous as it seems. Assuming an entry salary of £90,000, as indicated in the article, an 80-hour working week for 47 weeks a year — admittedly a very basic calculation — junior bankers would earn a higher hourly rate by doing private tutoring!

Advertisement

Yes, this is partly down to the nature of the business but it is also a self-perpetuating culture that is blocking efforts to at least mitigate its worst excesses.

Addressing this could, in fact, positively impact productivity as well.

Sonia Falconieri
Professor in Corporate Finance,
Bayes Business School (formerly Cass),
London EC1, UK

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

A reader’s reassurance at sight of Rolls-Royce logo

Published

on

No publication has bettered the FT for the coverage of Boeing’s downward and tragic flight path resulting from putting financial engineering (sic) before real engineering. Rereading John Gapper’s piece about the revival of Rolls-Royce’s fortunes (Opinion, September 13) I was surprised to see no words of caution about the possible consequences of too much “squeezing” of a product that must work perfectly throughout its life, and no warning on the potential for a Boeing outcome.

For me, I am always reassured when I look out from a window seat to see the classic black and silver RR logo on the engine housing. Long may this continue.

Gregory King
Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, UK

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Federal Reserve puts on enormous party hat

Published

on

This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Federal Reserve puts on enormous party hat

Katie Martin
A great moment in history has arrived. Rob Armstrong was right about something. Quite against the run of play — shush, Rob — quite against the run of play, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates — hurrah — from the highest level in decades, and for the first time since the pandemic. And what’s more, it went large, cutting by half-a-point, precisely as my esteemed colleague had predicted.

What kind of voodoo is this? Does the Fed know something horrible we don’t? Cutting by half-a-point is normally a crisis measure, a cry for help. Should we panic about a recession? And really, Rob was right. End times.

Today on the show, we’re going to explain how come investors are ignoring the usual script and taking this bumper cut as a good thing. This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I’m Katie Martin, a markets columnist here at FT Towers in London. And listeners, I must tell you, the saddest of things has happened. I’m joined by Rob Armstrong, lord of the Unhedged newsletter. But the sad thing is he’s dialling in from his sickbed. Rob, I’m sorry, you’re poorly.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
I am poorly. It’s terrible. But on a 50-basis-point day, the dead shall rise from their graves. The angels shall sing. And we all . . . we’re all gonna talk about it.

Katie Martin
Yes. Good, strong Barry White vibes I’m getting from this voice you’re busting out today. So, as you say, half a percentage point from the Fed; that’s 50 basis points in market money. Normally central banks love being super boring and they normally move by quarter-point increments. So, I mean, was it the shock of being right about the 50-basis-point thing that pushed you over the edge into sickness?

Robert Armstrong
It could have been. I’m so accustomed to getting this wrong now that it was really paralysing. However, I think, you know, you mentioned earlier, why is the market kind of taking this in stride and seeing this as a good thing? And I think it’s a bit of a communications success by the Fed in that they told the story about this, that they’re not doing this because they have to, because it’s an emergency. They’re doing it because they can.

Katie Martin
So gangster.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
And the reason they can is because they’ve kind of beaten inflation. Right?

Katie Martin
So for people who, unlike us, have a life and don’t sit around watching central bank press conferences, the way this works is they do the decision, they say, here you are, here’s your 25 or 50 whatever basis points, or we’re on hold. This time around, it was 50 basis points.

And then just a little while later, there’s a press conference where the chairman, Jay Powell, gets up in front of like all of the kind of most pointy headed Fed journalists in the world and fields whatever questions. There’s a statement, and then he field whatever questions they want to throw at him. And this for him was the point of highest danger, because the risk of giving the impression somehow that . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yes.

Advertisement

Katie Martin
Yeah, we’re really worried. That’s why we’ve done 50. That was a serious risk, right? But instead, what happened?

Robert Armstrong
Well, right from the press release announcing the 50 basis cut, they tweaked the language in the press release so that it was more affirmative and strong on the topic of inflation. We’re really pleased how it’s going on inflation.

Katie Martin
Right, right.

Robert Armstrong
And then in the press release, I mean in the press conference, he just reinforced that point again and again. The line he repeated was the labour market is fine, it’s healthy. It is at a good level. We don’t need it to get any better. We’re not trying to improve it, but we have the freedom to make sure it stays as good as it is.

Advertisement

And that message seems to have gone through. Markets didn’t move yesterday afternoon. And as a very, you know, opening minutes of trading this morning, stocks are up. So that message seems to have gotten through.

Katie Martin
Yeah. That is skills, actually. You know, I will hand it to them. Because, you know, it’s . . . we’ve said this before on this podcast. Like, it’s so easy to like throw stones and peanuts at the Fed or the European Central Bank, the Bank of England or whatever and say they messed this up. But, like, this stuff is hard. Getting the markets to come away with that sort of impression is not to be taken for granted.

Robert Armstrong
It’s not to be taken for granted. I agree. However, I will note any time you’re trying to spin a narrative and you want people to believe it, one thing that really helps is if the narrative is true. And in this case, I think it broadly is.

I think inflation really does look like it’s whipped. It’s really either at or very close to 2 per cent. And look, with an unemployment rate of 4.2 per cent and basically no increase in lay-offs and the economy is still adding jobs, I think the economy is pretty good. So it’s not like he had to spin a magical tale of unicorns and wizards here. He just had to, you know, make a case based on the facts.

Advertisement

Katie Martin
Yeah. And and that kind of goes back to the fact that the Fed is not quite like all the central banks in that it has to look after inflation, but it also has to look after the jobs market. And so, you know, again, the risk is that you come away from a decision like this and think, well, you know, those little cracks that we’ve seen in the jobs market, maybe they’re the start of something really big and hairy and awful, but he seems to have massaged this one away.

Robert Armstrong
Indeed. Impressive performance.

Katie Martin
And so the other thing they do in this press conference is they give the general public and sad nerds like us a little bit of a taster about what’s coming next from the Fed, right. So they’re always, like, central bankers are at pains to say none of this stuff is a promise. This is just our kind of best current understanding of the state of the universe. But so, then you end up with this thing called — drumroll — the dot.

Robert Armstrong
The dot plot.

Advertisement

Katie Martin
The dot plot. Explain for normal people what the dot plot is.

Robert Armstrong
OK. So it’s kind of a grid. And along the bottom are the years 2024 through 2027, and then another column for the infinite future. And then there’s a range of interest rates going up and down on the side. And every member of the monetary policy committee puts a little dot in each year column where they think the rate is gonna be in that year. Cue much speculation about what all this means, how they’ve changed their mind since the last dot plot and, you know, the implications of all of this.

Katie Martin
Whose dot is whose? We’ll never know.

Robert Armstrong
They don’t reveal whose dot is whose. That’s an important point. And by the way, Katie, according to everything we hear out of the Fed, having invented this device, which was supposed to increase clarity and make everyone’s life easier, everyone in the Fed now hates it and wishes it would go away . . . 

Advertisement

Katie Martin
Damn you, dot plot!

Robert Armstrong
Because it just causes endless, idiotic little niggling questions from people like me and you. But once you’ve invented something like this, if you take it away, people get upset.

Katie Martin
So you look at the dots and you look at what Jay Powell was saying at the press conference and what does it all add up to? Does it mean that, like, OK, they’ve started with 50 basis points, so like 50 is the new 25? Get used to it, boys and girls?

Robert Armstrong
If you look at the dot plot and their kind of aggregate expectations of where rates are gonna go, it is not that 50 is the new 25. The implication is that the rate of cuts is going to be very measured — or might I say stately, from here until they reach their target.

Advertisement

Katie Martin
Right, right.

Robert Armstrong
And, you know, another point to mention here is where they think they need to go is very important. That’s the kind of last part of the dot plot is, like, where should interest rates be when everything is normal again?

Katie Martin
Because that will happen one day. And . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yeah, that will happen. They think it’s gonna happen sometime around 2026, 27. We’ll get to where it’s about normal and they’re looking for about 3 per cent rates in the long run and that . . . so that’s where we’re going to. Just to set the context, we cut from 5.5 per cent to 5 per cent yesterday. And the map of the dot plot shows us moving towards a little under 3 per cent over time. And it’s a matter of how quickly are we going to get there, and along the way, are we going to change our mind and decide we have to go somewhere else?

Advertisement

Katie Martin
Yeah. So is there a kind of joyful hope that maybe the Fed could be, like, boring again and it can just sort of do 25 basis points here and there and just take this kind of glide path lowering rates that doesn’t get people excited any more?

Robert Armstrong
Well, this is the problem about the future is that it is hard to predict and particularly hard to predict with interest rates. The issue is that the economy, the structure of the economy has changed a lot in the last couple of years because of the pandemic and for other reasons. So that final destination point I talked about, which economists call the neutral rate, which is the just normal, everything is boring and steady rate of interest in the economy where everyone has a job, there’s no inflation, everything’s cool, the neutral rate. We don’t know what that number is.

And Jay Powell has this line about it. We know it by its works. And what that means, stated less calmly, is we know it when we screw it up. In other words, we hit it, we go past it. We push interest rates above the neutral rate and stocks have a big puke and the economy starts to slow down and people get fired or we travel too far below it and inflation starts again. So like the Fed over the next couple of years is like walking down this passage in the complete dark and it knows it can’t touch the wall on its left or the wall on its right. Right? But it doesn’t know the shape of the passageway, what direction it’s supposed to go. So it’s just like, well, I sure hope we’re going this way. Dee-dee-dee. And hope it doesn’t hit too low or too high along the way.

Katie Martin
Hope it doesn’t just walk into a wall.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
The history of interest rates is history of feeling your way along in the dark.

Katie Martin
Rob, that’s the most lyrical thing I’ve ever heard you say.

Robert Armstrong
Isn’t it? It’s poetry. It’s because I’m so ill. These could be the final words of a dying man.

Katie Martin
What meds are you on for this cold you’ve got?

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
This could be my legacy, Katie. (Laughter)

Katie Martin
I feel like we should kind of wrap up quite soon before you just like expire during the recording.

Robert Armstrong
I do. As much as I like you, I’d like to have a few words with my wife before I shove off.

Katie Martin
But I will ask you, are we ever going back to like zero interest rates, do you think? Or are we gonna look back on that…

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
I feel like I’ve been asking a lot of questions. This is a great question, Katie, but let me push it back on you. We had this wild period in the last decade where there was like a gajillion dollars of sovereign bonds issued at a negative interest rate.

Katie Martin
I think that was something like $18tn or something.

Robert Armstrong
Money was free. It was bonkers. And it was like the Fed funds rate was up against zero. Money was free. We were all in Silicon Valley inventing start-ups whatever, doing our thing. Do you think we’re going back to that? Like once this incident, the pandemic and everything after is over, are we going back?

Katie Martin
I mean, I can’t see it. I buy the narratives that are kicking around about inflation now being structurally higher, right? There’s a climate emergency. There’s a global defence emergency. There is all sorts of things that governments need to spend lots of money on, borrow lots of money for, all things being equal. And then there’s the whole supply chain thing after COVID and with geopolitics yada-yada.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
And the world is getting older, right? And so when old people create demand for savings, that drives interest rates up, right?

Katie Martin
Ah, old people. Yeah.

Robert Armstrong
Old people.

Katie Martin
But I think also before we wrap up, we should note that although you were right, about 50 basis points, I was right about the timing. I said on this here very podcast back in, I think it was June 2023, the . . . Not 24. 23. That the Fed is not gonna cut rates till the third quarter this year. So what I’m saying is I’m the genius here. You’re just like a (overlapping speech) took a coin flip.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
You’re basically Cassandra. Doomed to see the future and not be believed.

Katie Martin
I’m going to . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Do I have the right mythological figure there? I think that was Cassandra.

Katie Martin
Absolutely no idea. But I’m going to set up a hedge fund called like hunch capital where I can invest your money for two and 20. (Laughter) Based on nothing but pure hunches. Do you want in? Because like my hunch on that, your hunch on the other. I think we’re going to make good money.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
We could. We could be rich people, Katie. But I will answer your question seriously. I think interest rates are higher now. We’re not going back to zero. I will end on that serious point.

Katie Martin
Yeah, yeah.

Robert Armstrong
Governments are spending too much. They have to spend too much. There’s loads of old people. There’s the green stuff has to be funded. Productivity might be rising possibly because of AI. We are going into a higher interest rate world. And by the way, the Fed thinks that. If you look at the history of the Fed’s view of what the long term normal interest rate is, that has been steadily ticking higher over the last year and a half or so.

Katie Martin
So rates have come down already pretty hard, but don’t get yourself carried away with thinking that we’re going back to zero, because ain’t . . . I mean.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
No. Ain’t gonna happen. Nope.

Katie Martin
Ain’t gonna happen.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

On that bombshell, we’re going to be back in a sec with Long/Short.

Advertisement

[MUSIC PLAYING]

OK, now it’s time for Long/Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love, short a thing we hate. Rob, I feel like you should go first before you completely lose your voice. (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
Well, I’m going to go short wellbeing. And I say this not because my wellbeing is poor right now, but because of an article our colleague Joshua Franklin, wrote in the Financial Times yesterday that says, I’m quoting here, JPMorgan Chase has tasked one of its bankers with overseeing the company’s junior banker program, a response to renewed concerns about working conditions for young employees. And it goes on that this poor person is gonna have to make sure all these young investment bankers are happy and have work-life balance. I think investment bankers owe it to the rest of us to be miserable.

Katie Martin
Right.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
They make a lot of money. They are the lords of the universe. They should not be happy. Their wellbeing should be awful. And that’s what you’re getting paid for. So I think JPMorgan Chase is doing the wrong thing here. And they need to appoint a banker to oversee the what’s the opposite of wellbeing. Unwell being of their junior bankers.

Katie Martin
You’re a very, very mean person and you just want everyone to be sad like you.

Robert Armstrong
No, if you want to be happy, become a journalist and make no money. If you want to be rich, become a banker and like get divorced and have your kids hate you. It’s just the normal way of life. (Laughter)

Katie Martin
Well, I am long European banking merger drama. So if you’ve missed it, the German government is, like, quite scratchy and unhappy about a potential takeover of Commerzbank by Italy’s UniCredit. It’s the talk of the town. Everyone is kind of, you know, huddled around in bars in the city asking like, how the hell did UniCredit manage to amass like a nine per cent stake in this thing? Like that doesn’t seem like a good strategic move. There’s a lot of excitement over the motives. My interest here is that this is just like the good old days of European banking mergers with like very important European bankers wearing gilets under their jackets going around in like big fast cars and, you know, chatting away on their mobile phones and being masters of the universe.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
I just wish they would get along with it. As far as I know, in continental Europe, there’s actually more banks than people.

Katie Martin
Yeah, it’s like sheep in New Zealand. You’ve just got . . . (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
They just need. I mean, as long as I’ve been in finance, people have been rattling on about how banking in Europe was going to consolidate. The industry was finally going to make some. They just need . . . I mean, as long as I’ve been in finance, people have been rattling on about how banking in Europe was going to consolidate. The industry was finally going to make some money and it was going be able to compete with the US. And then it’s like, you know, some Germans get mad at some Italians, it never happens and the cycle turns again.

Katie Martin
Yeah, it’s like we want consolidation, but no, no, no, no, no. Not like that.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
Not like that.

Katie Martin
Anything but that.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

And I am here for the drama is all I’m saying.

Advertisement

Robert Armstrong
Right on. I love it.

Katie Martin
OK, listeners, we are going to be back in your feed on Tuesday if Rob makes it that long, but listen up anyway, wherever you get your podcasts.

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Special thanks to Laura Clarke, Alastair Mackie, Gretta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30-day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to FT.com/unhedgedoffer. I’m Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.