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100% of Strategy’s convertible debt is now out-of-the-money

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100% of Strategy’s convertible debt is now out-of-the-money

As if the week for Strategy investors wasn’t already bad enough, their capital stack has hit another, new low. Unfortunately, 100% of the company’s convertible debt is now “out-of-the-money.”

With the firm’s 2030A convertible bond notes, the final holdout from last week, joining the other five series in reaching out-of-the-money territory, all six series now have a conversion price above the price of MSTR, Strategy’s common stock.

In plain English, it’s now worse for bondholders to convert into common stock rather than just keeping their bonds as bonds.

As a result, Strategy will need to continue servicing their coupons, and principal cash repayments.

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While all bondholders are out-of-the-money, in other words, these convertibles will not convert into MSTR and will, instead, continue to drag on the cash obligations of the company going forward.

These creditors will demand on-time interest payouts and principal repayment through June 2032, unless the price of MSTR starts to rally and sufficiently motivate them to exercise their convertible options. 

Strategy’s bonds pay interest coupons of 2.25%, 0.625%, and 0%, depending on their upcoming maturities. The company has $8.2 billion worth of notional debt outstanding.

Read more: Michael Saylor missed out on a $33 billion profit at Strategy

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Strategy must service its out-of-the-money debts

Bonds, in capital stack seniority, rank even higher than preferred shares in terms of the company’s cash obligations.

Unlike common stock at the bottom of the stack or preferred dividends which the company’s board of directors may suspend at any time, Strategy must service its debts unless it wants to default. 

Defaulting is normally a catastrophic decision from a financial perspective, risking downgrades by credit analysts, uncertainty in pricing listed securities, and possible legal action by the bondholders.

Whereas an in-the-money cushion above the company’s convertibles is widely viewed as a sign of financial strength, all convertibles issued by Strategy have punctured through that safety net.

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Sure, they helped the company raise money to buy bitcoin in the past, but now they have long-lasting consequences.

No longer able to convert them into MSTR — unless MSTR rallies substantially — founder Michael Saylor must continue to repay bonds with cash or drum up more demand for MSTR so that its price rallies above bondholders’ conversion price.

Conversion prices for Strategy bonds range from a low of $149.77 to a high of $672.40. 

Options traders coined the term out-of-the-money when “the money” simply meant the actual, realizable, current cash value of a position.

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Traders used out-of-the-money as a shorthand reference to having no immediate cash worth by exercising a right like an option or warrant.

An option whose strike, or conversion, price was already favorable relative to prevailing prices of the underlying was “in the money” because there was real money on the table.

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Ether’s crash leaves $686 million gaping hole in trading firm’s book

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Trend Research's multi-million dollar loss. (Arkham)

An ether bull was caught leaning hard into the upside this week as the cryptocurrency tanked, turning the whale bet into a multi-million dollar horror story.

That bull is Trend Research, a trading firm headed by Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi. The firm spent recent months building a bullish (long) bet worth $2 billion on ether by borrowing stablecoins from DeFi giant Aave, which were reportedly collateralized by ether.

The position blew up this week, leaving the firm with a $686 million loss, according to Arkham.

The blow up underscores the crypto market’s unchanged reality: Volatility can still make or break traders in a single week. It also shows how traders keep chasing risky leveraged loop plays – borrowing stablecoins against ETH collateral – despite these bets exploding spectacularly every downtrend.

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Trend Research's multi-million dollar loss. (Arkham)

Trend Research’s multi-million dollar loss. (Arkham)

How it went down

The team was convinced of ether’s long-term potential and expected a quick rebound from its October drop below $4,000.

But that never materialized – ether kept sliding, endangering their “looped ether” long position. As prices fell, the stablecoin collateral backing the leveraged bet shrank, while the fixed debt loomed large in classic leveraged fashion.

The final blow came this month as ether started falling rapidly with bitcoin and on Feb. 4 prices tanked to $1,750, the weakest level since April 2025. Trend Research responded by liquidating over 300,000 ether, according to data source Bubble Maps.

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“Trend Research started sending large amounts of ETH to Binance to repay debt on AAVE In total, this cluster moved 332k ETH worth $700M to Binance over 5 days,” Bubble Maps said on X. The firm now holds just 1.463 ETH.

Jack Yi described these sales as a risk-control measure.

“As multi-heads in this round, we remain optimistic about the performance of the new bull market: ETH reaching over $10,000, BTC exceeding $200,000 USD. We’re just making some adjustments to control risk, with no change in our expectations for the future mega bull market,” Yi said in a post on X.

He added that now is the best time to buy tokens, calling volatility as the biggest feature of the crypto circle. “Historically, countless bulls have been shaken off by this volatility, but often what follows is a doubled rebound,” he noted.

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Bitcoin Google Searches Surge as Price Dips to $60K

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin drew renewed attention last week as price action met a renewed wave of retail-focused interest. Google Trends provisional data show worldwide searches for “Bitcoin” reached a score of 100 for the week starting Feb. 1, the highest level in roughly 12 months. The price picture reflected the mood: BTC started February around $81,500 and slid to about $60,000 within five days, before a partial rebound toward the mid-$70,000s as markets steadied (CoinMarketCap).

Key takeaways

  • Global search interest for “Bitcoin” surged to a 12-month high, hitting a Trends score of 100 in the week beginning Feb. 1.
  • Bitcoin’s price fell from ~ $81,500 to around $60,000 within five days and then recovered to about $70,700 at press time.
  • Retail participation appears to be returning, with market observers noting renewed shopper enthusiasm on social media.
  • The Coinbase premium turned positive for the first time since mid-January, signaling fresh US buying interest, per CryptoQuant.
  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dipped into Extreme Fear, underscoring a cautious mood even as some traders see a potential buying opportunity.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative in the near term as BTC slipped toward $60,000, followed by a partial rebound to near $70,700.

Market context: The move highlights ongoing volatility in crypto markets and the sensitivity of retail-driven sentiment to price swings. Elevated search activity and mixed indicators—institutional signals and retail metrics—illustrate how traders are weighing risk in a broader macro backdrop. Watch for whether on-chain and sentiment signals converge as price stabilizes.

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Why it matters

Retail interest can act as a catalyst for direction, and the early February price swing underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in a market known for sharp reversals. The spike in search activity, when paired with signals like the Coinbase premium and the Fear & Greed Index, provides a richer picture of market psychology beyond price alone. For investors and users, this episode reinforces the importance of triangulating signals—price levels, sentiment gauges, and on-chain activity—before drawing conclusions about trend beginnings or endings.

From a broader perspective, the data point to a market that remains comfortable with high volatility and sensitive to both macro cues and microflows. While some market participants view the Extreme Fear reading as a potential bottoming signal, others caution that sentiment can stay negative for extended periods if liquidity tightens or negative catalysts emerge. In this environment, the resilience of price above key support zones and the pace at which sentiment shifts back toward optimism will likely determine the next phase of the cycle.

Bitcoin is down 15.51% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Beyond price, observers continue to weigh how these signals translate into longer-term momentum. The conversation around a potential recovery hinges not only on how quickly Bitcoin stabilizes but also on the durability of renewed retail demand, the direction of institutional interest, and the evolving regulatory and macro backdrop. The current mix of indicators—some suggesting cautious optimism, others signaling caution—reflects a crypto market still navigating a high-velocity environment where news, liquidity shifts, and investor sentiment can diverge for extended periods.

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Ethereum’s Trillion-Dollar Security Dashboard: A Six-Pillar Framework for Ecosystem Safety

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • User experience is Ethereum’s weakest security link, with only 7 of 29 controls currently live.
  • Smart contract attestations now verify deployed code, reducing reliance on one-time audits alone.
  • Consensus protocol remains Ethereum’s strongest pillar, with robust anti-censorship mechanisms.
  • Social governance risks like stake centralization now tracked alongside technical vulnerabilities

 

Ethereum Trillion Dollar Security Dashboard shows a new structured view of ecosystem safety. It is currently tracking six key areas, including UX, smart contract security, infrastructure, consensus, monitoring, and social governance. 

The Ethereum Foundation launched this initiative to assess risks and progress, aiming to support large‑scale value safely.

The dashboard emphasizes transparency and measurable security for developers and institutional users. 

User Experience and Smart Contract Security

The Ethereum Trillion Dollar Security Dashboard starts with user experience, the area where most losses occur. Users do not interact with the protocol directly but with wallets, dapps, browser extensions, and signing prompts. 

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Because Ethereum transactions are atomic and irreversible, a single mistake can lead to substantial loss. Key subdomains, including key management, blind signing, approvals, privacy, and interface fragmentation, closely align with observed exploit patterns. 

Phishing attacks, malicious approvals, and fake frontends remain primary causes of user loss. Only seven out of twenty-nine controls are currently live, signaling UX as Ethereum’s most urgent frontier. 

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Clear signing standards and wallet safety protocols are prioritized to protect users effectively.Smart contract security has matured but continues evolving. 

Audits, formal verification, bug bounties, and hardened libraries like OpenZeppelin help ensure that deployed contracts remain secure.

This highlights a shift toward verifiable on-chain attestations, solving the problem with the audited contract version. 

These measures make security more transparent and reliable, improving overall ecosystem trust. Security tools now focus on making smart contract interactions legible for users.

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Bytecode-to-audit linking ensures that contracts are identifiable and auditable, reducing dependency on one-off audit assurances.

The Ethereum ecosystem demonstrates consistent improvement in smart contract resilience while emphasizing usability. It helps bridge technical rigor and practical safety for participants.

Infrastructure, Consensus, and Social Governance

Infrastructure and cloud security remain essential components of Ethereum’s ecosystem defense. Reliance on centralized RPC providers, cloud-hosted nodes, and opaque Layer 2 solutions exposes the system to hidden failure points. 

Outages, censorship, or data logging on these services can impact user experience even if Layer 1 remains stable. The dashboard prioritizes community-run RPCs and self-hosted nodes, emphasizing verifiability and decentralization. 

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Most controls are live, reflecting an understanding of evolving risks. Ethereum’s consensus protocol remains the ecosystem’s strongest pillar. 

Through it, clients can diversify, stake decentralization, and actively enforce anti-censorship mechanisms. 

Forced transaction inclusion ensures neutrality, and preparation for quantum-resistant cryptography, and long-term security planning. Monitoring, incident response, and mitigation strategies reduce systemic impact when failures occur. 

Live monitoring, coordinated responses, and emerging insurance solutions help contain risk. Social governance, though slower to mature, is identified as a critical security surface. 

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Stake centralization, regulatory pressures, and organizational capture are measured, ensuring the ecosystem addresses risks beyond technical vulnerabilities.

This holistic approach reframes security from protecting the protocol to supporting a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem.

Ethereum balances strong consensus and contract security with infrastructure vigilance and social awareness, demonstrating comprehensive security planning for both users and institutions.

 

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Erebor Secures First New US Bank Charter of Trump’s Second Term

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Erebor Secures First New US Bank Charter of Trump’s Second Term

The United States has approved a newly created national bank for the first time during President Donald Trump’s second term, granting a charter to crypto-friendly startup Erebor Bank.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirmed the approval on Friday, allowing the lender to operate nationwide, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The institution launches with about $635 million in capital and aims to serve startups, venture-backed companies and high-net-worth clients, a segment left underserved after the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Erebor is backed by a roster of prominent technology investors, including Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, 8VC and Elad Gil. The project was founded by Oculus co-creator Palmer Luckey, who will sit on the board but not manage daily operations.

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Related: Nomura-backed Laser Digital seeks US bank charter amid crypto banking push: Report

Erebor targets defense tech, robotics, AI

The bank is reportedly positioning itself as a specialist lender to emerging industries such as defense technology, robotics and advanced manufacturing. Prospective clients include companies developing AI-driven factories, aerospace research and pharmaceutical production in low-gravity environments.

“You can think of us like a farmers’ bank for tech,” Luckey reportedly told the WSJ, arguing that traditional banks often lack the expertise needed to assess startups with unconventional assets.