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Light through the Slats: Challenging Corporate News Frames

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By Andy Lee Roth and Steve Macek

The power of news is often described using visual metaphors. Good journalism is said to be illuminating, meaning it provides clarity and insight; exemplary reporting is praised for “shining light” on a subject or “bringing to light” crucial facts and original perspectives. And the concept of “framing,” a fundamental element of critical media literacy, portrays news as a “window” to the world—yet another visual metaphor.

Extending these metaphors of vision and illumination, the independent news reports identified and vetted by college students and highlighted by Project Censored in its annual presentation the year’s most important but underreported stories are rays of light shining through a heavily slatted window. Each of these independent news reports addresses an issue that has otherwise been dimly lit or altogether obscured by corporate news outlets.

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The shading slats are built from the corporate media’s concentrated ownership, reliance on advertising, relationship to political power, and narrow definitions of who and what count as “newsworthy.” Censorship, whether overt or subtle, establishes the angle of the slats, admitting more or less light from outside. Put another way, independent reporting on these topics—light shining through the slats—represents the influence of independent journalism to challenge the “mainstream” news media’s exclusive worldview.

In 1920, Walter Lippmann, a leading media critic of his era, issued a clarion call: “The news about the news needs to be told,” Lippmann wrote. Since 1976, college students working with Project Censored have done just that. Each year students and faculty participating in the Project’s Campus Affiliates Program identify and vet independent news stories on issues that have either been marginalized or blockaded by corporate news media.

One fundamental purpose of the annual Top 25 story list is to draw greater attention to important issues that we only know about because of intrepid reporting by independent journalists and news organizations. From activism to reform outdated laws that criminalize HIV to the economic costs of gun violence and the discovery of toxic “forever chemicals” in rainwater, each of the stories highlighted by Project Censored is important in its own right and represents an issue on which the public might be motivated to act, were it better informed.

But it is also important to grasp the Project’s 2022-23 story list as the latest installment in an ongoing effort to identify systemic gaps in so-called “mainstream” (i.e., corporate) news coverage. Examining public issues that independent journalists and outlets have reported but which fall outside the scope of corporate news coverage makes it possible to document in specific detail how corporate news media leave the public in the dark by marginalizing or blockading crucial issues, limiting political debate, and promoting corporate views and interests. To Project Censored’s existing database of 1,175 news topics and stories neglected by the establishment press, State of the Free Press 2024 adds twenty-five new data points.

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Examining connections between stories within this year’s Top 25 list can be a first step in recognizing patterns of omission or marginalization in corporate framing of what is newsworthy. One of the most obvious of these omissions is the corporate news media’s apparent reluctance to cover the grinding consequences of immense, systemic economic inequalities, as highlighted by independent press reporting on record-high corporate profits, a looming debt crisis for the world’s poorest nations, and the reality that nearly half of all unhoused people in the United States are employed.

Another major theme of independent journalism evident in this year’s story list is the corrosive influence of the fossil fuel industry. In efforts to maintain their economic interests and political influence, fossil fuel investors are suing national governments to thwart climate regulations and using donations to universities to skew climate and energy research, even as climate change has forced entire tribal towns to relocate, and new research further documents the threats of oil and gas extraction to human health, including especially mothers and young children.

Thanks to the work of independent journalists, we also know that rainforest carbon offset programs—as endorsed by Shell, Disney, and other internationally renowned corporations—are often “worthless” and that the fossil fuel industry was not alone in hiding its knowledge of the climate crisis from the public: Electric utility companies have also been knowingly spreading misinformation about climate change for decades.

Project Censored’s 2024 story list also includes a cluster of stories that illuminate the nuanced realities of censorship in the twenty-first century. Big Tech companies, including Google, Meta, and Microsoft, are hiring former employees of US and Israeli intelligence agencies for senior positions, affording them significant influence over online communication, commerce, and information gathering; US government agencies have pressured Twitter to constrain political content on the popular social networking service; and leaked Department of Homeland Security documents revealed new details of its efforts to ramp up censorship of dangerous online speech through the development of a Disinformation Governance Board

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This year’s Top 25 Censored story list represents the collective effort of 220 students from twelve college and university campuses across the United States who have developed and engaged their critical media literacy skills by identifying, vetting, and summarizing important but under-reported independent news stories. They are the forty-eighth cohort of students who have worked with Project Censored to expose and publicize what its founder, Carl Jensen, called “The News That Didn’t Make the News—and Why.”

Perhaps one or more of the featured stories will motivate you to join the independent journalists, student researchers, and Project Censored in speaking out about these important but often overshadowed issues. Focusing attention on what Lippmann called “the news about the news” helps to expose the operation of the “slats” that frequently filter our news and privilege elite interests. Removing these filters allows the light of independent journalism that serves the public good to shine more brightly.

Note: The above material was adapted from Project Censored’s State of the Free Press 2024, Andy Lee Roth and Mickey Huff, eds. (Fair Oaks, CA and New York: The Censored Press and Seven Stories Press, 2023).

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Five delicious and good-value oat recipes – from porridge, smoothies to burgers

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Five delicious and good-value oat recipes - from porridge, smoothies to burgers

JUST in case it’s not ingrained in your memory – Porridge Week starts tomorrow.

Oats are a versatile, good-value food, and there are many different ways to enjoy them.

Five delicious and good-value oat recipes - from porridge, smoothies to burgers

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Five delicious and good-value oat recipes – from porridge, smoothies to burgersCredit: Getty

Give these delicious recipes a try . . . 

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WEIGH IT UP: Gram for gram, porridge oats make one of the best value breakfasts at under 5p a serving — half the price of supermarket own-brand cornflakes.

A morning bowl can be jazzed up with syrup, brown sugar, thawed-out frozen ­berries, banana, seeds or nuts.

SMOOTHIE OPERATOR: Use frozen berries and oats to make a tasty, healthy smoothie. Blend with milk and yoghurt for a filling drink that will release energy throughout the morning.

OH CRUMBS: Make a spicy, crispy crumb to coat around 400g of chicken or fish fillets for four people.

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Use a mixer to whizz up 150g oats with two tablespoons of oil and a teaspoon each of herbs and spices — try oregano, paprika and garlic granules.

Dip the fillets in a dish of flour to cover, then in whisked egg, and follow with the oat crumb, before frying.

FLIP DON’T FLAP: For a simple flapjack swap, make some easy oat biscuits.

Use 100g each of oats, flour, sugar and butter. Mix the oats and flour with a teaspoon of mixed spice. Melt the sugar and butter with a tablespoon of honey.

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Mix together and cool slightly before shaping into balls. Place on a baking sheet, press down slightly, then bake at 180C for 15 to 20 minutes.

BURGER BOOST: Beef up your burgers by adding some oats. You can mix around 400g of minced beef or turkey with 80g oats. Stir in a finely chopped and fried onion, then add a dash of salt, pepper and garlic granules.

Bind the mixture together with a beaten egg — add a bit at a time until you get the right consistency, where the mixture holds together without being too wet. Form into patties and gently fry.

  • All prices on page correct at time of going to press. Deals and offers subject to availability.

Deal of the day

Scandi air fryer from Asda, £28

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Scandi air fryer from Asda, £28Credit: Supplied

THIS handy Scandi air fryer from Asda will look good in your kitchen, and it’s a great price too, reduced from £45 to £28.

SAVE: £17

Cheap treat

This poster is £7.50 at the London Transport Museum shop

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This poster is £7.50 at the London Transport Museum shopCredit: Supplied

BRIGHTEN your walls with a classic poster, now half price at the London Transport Museum shop. The 18in x 13in Off To The Zoo is down from £15 to £7.50.

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TOY store Smyths is offering £5 off when you spend £50 or more, or £10 off when you spend £100 or more, before midnight on Wednesday.

Top swap

Aeroccino milk frother, from nespresso.com, £79

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Aeroccino milk frother, from nespresso.com, £79Credit: Supplied
Aldi’s Ambiano frother, £19.99, which hits stores today

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Aldi’s Ambiano frother, £19.99, which hits stores todayCredit: Supplied

THE Aeroccino milk frother, from nespresso.com will help you make a tasty at home latte for £79. Or you can have foam and fortune with Aldi’s Ambiano frother, £19.99, which hits stores today.

SAVE: £59.01

Little helper

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JOIN thousands of readers taking part in The Sun Raffle.

Every month we’re giving away £100 to 250 lucky readers – whether you’re saving up or just in need of some extra cash, The Sun could have you covered.

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Every Sun Savers code entered equals one Raffle ticket.

The more codes you enter, the more tickets you’ll earn and the more chance you will have of winning!

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Project Censored Newsletter – December 2023

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State of the Free Press 2024 in the News

State of the Free Press 2024, the 31st edition of the Project’s award-winning yearbook series, officially released on December 5, 2023. You can ask for it at your favorite local bookstore or order a copy directly from Project Censored.

The Teaching Guide, authored by Shealeigh VoitlMischa Geracoulis, and Andy Lee Roth, is available at no charge from the Project website. Designed by Shealeigh Voitl, the Guide includes topics for discussion and exploration activities on different types of censorship, Junk Food News, and book bans, among others.

On November 16, 2023, Andy Lee Roth, coeditor of the yearbook, appeared on Corporations and Democracy, hosted by Annie Esposito and Steve Scalmanini and broadcast by KZYX, community radio for Mendocino County. They discussed the legacy of Daniel Ellsberg, establishment media bias in coverage of Israeli violence in Gaza, and how to avoid the pitfalls of  news “deserts” and news “snacking.”

The New England chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists hosted Andy Lee Roth for a webinar on State of the Free Press 2024, on December 4th. The SPJ’s Loretta McGraw and Roth discussed the Project’s early history, its 21st-century definition of censorship, and the story selection process. The event is archived on the New England SPJ chapter’s YouTube channel. Special thanks to Adam Sennott and Saraya Wintersmith of SPJ-New England for making this event possible.

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Sonali Kolhatkar of YES! Presents Rising Up With Sonali hosted Andy Lee Roth on December 5th. They discussed several of the year’s top stories, as featured in State of the Free Press 2024, including union victories led by workers of color, wrongful convictions rooted in systemic racism, and the relocation of tribal communities due to climate change. Find the interview archived here.

Mnar Adley, editor-in-chief of MintPress News, hosted an online panel discussion on December 14th with Mickey HuffColeen Rowley, and Alan MacLeod (who wrote the foreword for State of the Free Press 2024). They discussed “Gaza Genocide Day 69 & Western Media Complicity,” which included conversations about media censorship, atrocity propaganda, and the importance of independent journalists who risk their lives cutting through the fog of war.


New Validated Independent News Stories Posted

Being an Undocumented Teacher in America Comes With Undocumented Struggles

Photo by Wavebreakmedia via Canva.

The latest Validated Independent News stories focus on education, including independent news reporting on school hospital programs that bridge education and student recovery, schools in Idaho struggling to secure resources necessary to provide safe, nurturing learning environments, and the challenges undocumented teachers face—stories identified and vetted by students at the University of Massachusetts Amherst working with Allison Butler.

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Validated Independent News stories report information and perspective that the public has a right and need to know, but to which it has limited access.


The Censored Press Happenings

Along with graphic memoirists Ajuan Mance (Gender Studies: The Confessions of an Accidental Outlaw), Tyler Cohen (Primazonia), Leah Yael Levy (Israel 2023—WTF?!), and comics maker/educator Nick Sousanis (Unflattening), Adam Bessie and Peter Glanting, author and illustrator of Going Remote: A Teacher’s Journey, were part of the Comic Reading Extravaganza at Silver Sprocket comic shop in San Francisco, December 2, 2023.

Nolan Higdon’s article, Seeing Isn’t Believing: From Gaza to US Politics, Deepfake Videos Are Peddling Fake News, was published by USA Today on November 27, 2023. Higdon is the author of The Anatomy of Fake News, and coauthor of United States of DistractionLet’s Agree to Disagree, and The Media and Me.

Four of the authors of The Media and MeAllison ButlerNolan HigdonMickey Huff, and Andy Lee Roth, along with Micah Card, who authored the book’s accompanying resource guide —participated in a panel on critical media literacy at the UNESCO DCMÉT Symposium on Peace, Culture, and Social Justice, which took place at the University of Quebec and online, October 25-27, 2023. A video recording of their session, titled “Teaching Critical Media Literacy as a Liberatory Project,” is now available on the UNESCO DCMÉT YouTube channel. This panel focused on critical media literacy as one direct way to promote students’ civic engagement and social justice commitments, thus contributing indirectly to the creation of a more equitable, peaceful world.

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Andy Lee Roth and Mickey Huff, editors of State of the Free Press 2024, published How Corporate Media Helped Lay the Groundwork for Israel’s Genocide in Gaza in Truthout on December 2, 2023.

Roth also authored “Countering War Propaganda with Critical Media Literacy,” which appears in the Fall 2023 issue of Justice Rising, the flagship publication of the Alliance for Democracy.


In The Attack against the Freedom to Read and What to Do about ItSteve Macek provides a concise overview of the dramatic wave of book bans in public and K-12 school libraries. His article focuses in particular on legislation in Florida, which he describes as “a gulag for young minds,” and censorship campaigns by Moms for Liberty—as well as resistance to these bans by libraries and librarians, educators and teachers unions, and, most of all, students themselves. “Students are taking the lead in organizing against restrictions,” Macek reports.

Andy Lee Roth and Mickey Huff authored Navigating the News Void: From News Deserts to Revitalization, which draws from their introduction to State of the Free Press 2024. They call for a new generation of muckraking journalism, which received keen public attention one hundred years ago, as one way to renew popular interest in journalism today.

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Find the complete archives of Project Censored’s Dispatches on Media and Politics series here.


The Project Censored Show

The Stranglehold of Silence Suppression of Free Speech in the IsraelPalestine Conflict

Photo from Canva by South Agency

November 30: The Stranglehold of Silence: Suppression of Free Speech in the Israel/Palestine Conflict, with James Bamford, interviewed by Eleanor Goldfield; and Peter Byrne, interviewed by Mickey Huff.

December 11: Media Censorship and Attacks on Press Freedoms: Genocide in Gaza, Julian Assange, with Abby Martin and Kevin Gosztola, interviewed by Mickey Huff.

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A Look at the Jewish National Fund and Radioactive FrackingDecember 13: Exposing the Jewish National Fund and Radioactive Fracking, with Abdullah Elagha and Justin Nobel, interviewed by Eleanor Goldfield.

Follow the links for each episode to learn more about the Show’s featured guests and content. Find the comprehensive archive of Project Censored Show episodes here.

 


Support from monthly subscribers and generous donors helps sustain all of the Project’s programs, from hands-on training in critical media literacy through our student internship program, to publication of the annual Censored yearbook, and weekly production of the Project Censored Show. We thank you for your support.

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Major cinema chain to shut doors TOMORROW leaving fans devastated

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Major cinema chain to shut doors TOMORROW leaving fans devastated

A MAJOR cinema chain will shut its doors for good tomorrow, devastating locals.

Cineworld‘s site in Glasgow Parkhead is set to permanently shutter on October 6.

Cineworld will close one of its in Glasgow Parkhead tomorrow

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Cineworld will close one of its in Glasgow Parkhead tomorrowCredit: Getty

In a Facebook post Cineworld said: “After years of providing movie lovers with a place to feel more, we have made the difficult decision to close Cineworld Glasgow Parkhead.

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“Thank you to all of you movie-loving customers for choosing us over the years. We hope you continue to enjoy watching movies at our local cinemas”

Locals were quick to chime in and share their heartbreak at the popular cinema’s closure.

“I am so saddened by this news, I love this cinema, I go at least once a week and find all the staff very nice and helpful,” said one.

Another said: “Gutted I’ve been going to this cinema since I was young.”

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While a third described the news as “brutal”.

Cineworld confirmed this week it would close five locations across the UK.

Bosses at the troubled entertainment group have been pushing for the closures since July, but the move needed to be approved by the courts first.

The reduction in its portfolio forms part of a major restructuring plan to keep the company’s head above water.

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Just this week, a judge gave the go-ahead for £16million to be injected into Cineworld’s four companies which form the business.

Major cinema chain with 100 branches ‘to close dozens of sites’ in major blow to high street

The cash came from the business’s parent company, with an extra £35million to also be made available.

Its four companies. Cine-UK Ltd, Cineworld Cinemas Ltd, Cineworld Cinema Properties Ltd and Cineworld Estates Ltd, will also negotiate leases for each of their 101 sites across the UK.

The five sites will shut for good on these exact dates:

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  • Glasgow Parkhead (closing October 6)
  • Bedford (closing October 6)
  • Swindon Regent Circus (closing October 6)
  • Loughborough (closing October 13)
  • Yate (closing October 13)

It comes as the chain is also said to be renegotiating rent agreements for around 50 of its sites.

Struggling businesses often do this to help lower their operating costs and help retain more of their brick-and-mortar estate.

However, landlords don’t need to accept what’s put forward in these discussions

This means that up to 50 additional Cineworld complexes could also be at risk of closure if the chain and its landlords cannot reach an agreement.

What else has happened at Cineworld?

This development follows a long period of trouble at Cineworld.

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Just last year the business emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US.

Filing for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy means a company intends to reorganise its debts and assets while remaining in business.

The company’s shares plunged almost 99% in the five years to 2023, as it was hit particularly hard by the pandemic and the enforced closure of its cinema sites.

Shortly after, Cineworld’s UK arm collapsed into administration on July 31.

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The cinema chain was delisted from the London Stock Exchange a day later.

When a company enters administration in the UK, all control is passed to an appointed administrator, who must be a licensed insolvency practitioner.

A lot of major cinema chains have struggled following the pandemic, as customers got used to streaming films from home. 

Big blockbusters such as the Barbie Movie and Oppenheimer drove punters back to the movie theatre last year, but it has not been enough to keep some venues afloat. 

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What is happening across hospitality and the cinema sector?

CINEWORLD isn’t the only chain that’s struggling.

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The Alipore Bomb Case: A Historic Pre-Independence Trial

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Like many other emotionally charged agitations, the anti-partition agitation was also initially peaceful. But as it became clear that the desired results would not be forthcoming, the reins passed into the hands of leaders who believed that a combination of boycott and terrorism could make their mission successful. Magnetised by the fiery urge to fight for their motherland, the younger generation picked up pistols and bombs. Of course, with this the anti-partition movement also entered a phase marked by violence and gradual disorder.

Less than a decade ago, British Viceroy Lord Elgin had said, “India was conquered by the sword and by the sword it shall be held!” Now, in an ironical turn of events, the youth of Bengal seemed to be returning Elgin’s comment. Many genuinely felt that violence was the only language the foreigners understood. Armed terrorism thus became closely intertwined with the fight for swaraj. In 1907, Aurobindo’s brother Barindra Ghose, began using his family home in Maniktola (then a suburb of Calcutta) as an arsenal-cum-school for revolutionaries. His compatriot, Hem Chandra Das from Midnapore, went to Paris to learn bomb making and understand revolutionary politics. As Bipin Chandra Pal, Ashwini Kumar Dutta, Aurobindo Ghose and others took control of the militant movement, the police files of the British became thicker and thicker with the names of young ‘suspects’ and ‘preventive detainees’. The same files now also had a name for this movement—’Bengal Terrorism’!

‘Bengal Terrorism’ was at its peak between 1908 and 1910. It was an organised movement that did not approve of individually motivated acts and secret murders. The objective was to stage a popular uprising and revolution that could bring down the edifice of British imperialism. This they hoped to do by forming secret societies that could enthuse the youth with higher values of bold action and sacrifice for the country, train them in the manufacture of bombs and explosive devices and the use of arms and also arm them for the fight.

Through the assassination of British officials they hoped to demoralise the British, paralyse the administration and uproot all enemies of India’s freedom—Indians or foreigners! Guerrilla warfare, inciting the army to revolt, arranging arms supplies from nations hostile to Britain—these revolutionaries were open to following many paths.

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An official report of the time mentions about 210 revolutionary outrages and 101 attempts involving hundreds of revolutionaries in the decade between 1906 and 1917 in Bengal. This includes several failed and aborted attempts on the lives of high officials between the announcement of partition in 1905 and the Muzaffarpur bombing carried out by the Jugantar revolutionaries Khudiram Bose and Prafulla Chaki in April 1908.

These were times when the Criminal Intelligence Department (CID) could hardly afford to lean back and take a moment’s rest. Swamped with work, all its attention was now focused on tracing the web-like threads of revolutionary activity to their points of origin. All attempts to force a breakthrough had proved futile. On a more specific note, the CID was also aware of an assassination plot building up against the former Calcutta Presidency Chief Magistrate, Douglas Kingsford (now posted as District Judge in Muzaffarpur), but had not been able to unearth it. And then suddenly, the Muzaffarpur bombing happened!

A turning point in India’s revolutionary history, the incident created a sensation in British India. The blast was followed by deafening silence in stunned British circles. Young, impassioned, 18-year-old Khudiram Bose was arrested for the bombing. Through the incident and the investigations that followed, the British were able to unravel the functioning of a wellspread network of secret societies and the people associated with it. The Muzaffarpur bombing became the starting point of the famous trial known as the Alipore Bomb Case or the Alipore Bomb Conspiracy. The Muzaffarpur incident was the first real eruption of a volcano that had made many attempts to surface in the recent past. Before the bombing, several unsuccessful attempts had been made on the lives of high-profile British officials. In 1906, Bampfylde Fuller, the Lieutenant Governor of the new province of Eastern Bengal and Assam, was trailed from Guwahati to Rangpur, but no attempt was made. On the night of 6 December 1907 an attempt was made near Narayangarh in the Midnapur district to blow up the train in which Andrew Fraser, the Lieutenant Governor of Bengal, was travelling. Another attempt was planned on the Lieutenant Governer’s train near Chandernagore in which Barindra Ghose was accompanied by his close associate Ullaskar Dutt and Prafulla Chaki. The attempt failed because the special train did not come that way on the appointed night. December 1907 also saw a group led by Narendranath Bhattacharya carry out a dacoity in Chingripota (24 Parganas) and the shooting of B.C. Allen (District Magistrate, Dhaka) by members of the Dhaka Anushilan Samiti. On the night of 11 April 1908 an attempt had been made on the life of the Mayor of Chandernagore who had incurred the wrath of the revolutionaries for stopping a swadeshi meeting from taking place. The police, therefore, had enough reasons to keep a close watch on the activities of some people in Calcutta, whom they suspected of having links with the revolutionaries.

Events had been in motion for a while, but deep in their hearts the revolutionaries were getting impatient for that one big bang that could shake the British to their foundations. It is in this context that the Muzaffarpur bombing assumes great historical importance. When Khudiram Bose and Prafulla Chaki threw a bomb at what they presumed to be the carriage carrying Douglas Kingsford on 30 April 1908 in Muzaffarpur in Bihar, they brought matters to a head. Instead of assassinating Kingsford, the bomb, however, killed his bridge partners Mrs. Kennedy and Miss Grace Kennedy, the wife and daughter of Mr. Pringle Kennedy, Advocate-at-Bar at Muzaffarpur. But even though it missed the desired target, the bomb that was hurled that fateful evening blasted the myth of British invincibility and shook the empire at its roots. Indeed, even a century later, the modest bomb remains one of the loudest explosions in Indian history.

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[Niyogi Books has given Fair Observer permission to publish this excerpt from The Alipore Bomb Case: A Historic Pre-Independence Trial, Noorul Hoda, Niyogi Books, 2008.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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Hurricane Leslie Path: Where It’s Heading and What to Know

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Hurricane Leslie Path: Where It's Heading and What to Know

Leslie is currently making its way across the Atlantic, and has now strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, though there are no hazards affecting land.

Per an advisory shared at 4 a.m. EST on Saturday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Leslie is currently moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of 7 m.p.h. and is set to increase speed in a northwest direction during the night. This is expected to continue through Tuesday.

The storm’s maximum wind speeds have increased slightly since Friday to 80 m.p.h., and the NHC has stated that though the storm may strengthen some through Saturday, it is expected to weaken on Sunday.

The storm formed in the Atlantic on Wednesday, but strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane on Friday.

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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Leslie, the 12th storm formed in the Atlantic in 2024, is not far behind Hurricane Kirk during an unexpectedly busy hurricane season, on the heels of the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene.

Read More: Here’s What You Need to Know About Hurricane Kirk’s Expected Path

Kirk, which currently churns as a Category 3 hurricane, is causing storm swells which are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. Per the NHC, “these swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday.”

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Tropical Weather
A law enforcement officer from the Florida Fish Wildlife and Conservation Commission surveys destruction in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Cedar Key, Fla., on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.Gerald Herbert—AP

The NHC is also tracking a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which it states is highly likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, according to an advisory shared on Saturday morning. The NHC puts the chances of formation throughout the next two days at 70 percent, and over the next week at 90 percent.

This disturbance could affect the Yucatán Peninsula, Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas.

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China’s stock rally for the ages shows power of crowds

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

The scorching rally in Chinese stocks over the past week or so underlines one of the key rules of markets: always keep an eye on the crowd.

Shortly before an extended market holiday, authorities in Beijing sent a forceful message that enough was enough. The economy is stuck (by Chinese standards — most western economies would be delighted with growth rates of a bit above 4.5 per cent) and the stock market had been bleeding out for months.

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So the central bank and other authorities unleashed a volley of turnaround measures, ranging from interest rate easing, to lighter demands on banks to stuff reserves away, to direct stock market-boosting efforts and the promise of fiscal support to come. Are these fiscal measures super detailed? No. Will a sliver of a percentage point off interest rates turn the long-suffering property sector around? Also no. But do traders care about that? Again, no.

The result, then, is a rip-your-face-off rally for the ages. The CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks added more than 20 per cent in less than a week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is now the best-performing major market in the world this year, having added 30 per cent, compared with a relatively puny 19 per cent in the US S&P 500.

Timing played a role here — the broad assumption was that Beijing would hold out for longer before taking anything like this kind of action. Scale matters, too; Deutsche Bank says the fiscal stimulus is a “big deal” that, when measured against the size of the economy, is the third biggest of its kind for the country ever — a Mario Draghi-style “whatever it takes” moment.

It could take months until we know the real economic impact. But markets are not hanging around to find out. That is because before this injection of support, investors were just allergic to China. Bank of America’s regular survey of fund managers found last month that “macro pessimism was centred on China” with growth expectations at the lowest point in the three years the bank has been tracking them in this form. 

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At around the same time, I spoke to Amundi’s chief investment officer, Vincent Mortier, who said he had “never seen such a big pushback” from clients against the idea of putting money to work there. He was making the case that it was unwise to avoid China entirely, but the conversation was a non-starter. The bet was “totally, totally dead”, he said.

Pity the hedge fund manager who told me this week he almost took that as a trigger to buy China, but backed out. As any good professional investor will tell you, when everyone seems to hate a particular corner of global markets, it is time to buy. But it can be hard to pluck up the courage. 

It is not the first time this year that the power of positioning has been made clear, with the other prime example being Japan. In its quarterly markets review earlier this month, the Bank for International Settlements noted that “concentrated hedge fund positions” played a key role in the speed and size of the Japanese “turbulence” in early August.

Carry trades — selling currencies with low interest rates and buying those with higher rates — were unusually popular with hedgies in the run-up to August’s shake-out, the BIS said. Over the period from 2022, that meant there was a lot of speculative money buying dollars at the expense of yen — a force that helped cram the yen down to its lowest point in decades. Carry trades, and related bets around US stock market volatility, became an unusually weighty influence on hedge fund returns.

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At the same time, speculators gravitated towards buying Japanese stocks too. This was all fine until, in early August, it abruptly wasn’t. A scare over US growth that raised expectations of interest rate cuts hit these strategies on several fronts, denting the dollar, particularly against the yen where it was especially stretched, and fuelling volatility in stocks. The exits from this correlated set of trades proved to be crowded on the way out.

Cue an alarming drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate and, on one especially scary Monday, a double-digit decline in the Japanese stock market — the biggest fall since the great crash three decades ago and leaving a shadow over the “buy Japan” thesis that had become popular. “Crowdedness, combined with high leverage, set the stage for the amplification of stress and cross-asset spillovers,” the BIS report said. 

Other examples are easy to find, such as the massive accumulation of bets on US chipmaker Nvidia — a stock that became overcrowded over the summer and shed a third in value in six weeks.

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With all that in mind, it is worth looking for the points of greatest consensus among investors now, just in case it makes sense to take the other side. For instance, the same survey from BofA that said China was a contrarian buy also pointed to buying commodities, which investors are avoiding on the greatest scale since 2017.

Thematically, the biggest point of consensus is for a soft landing in the US economy — an expectation held by nearly 80 per cent of fund managers. That many clever people can’t all be wrong about something, right?

katie.martin@ft.com

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