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UFC 307 predictions – MMA Fighting

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UFC 307 predictions - MMA Fighting

UFC 307, in some ways, feels like a stopgap.

To be fair, there’s nothing wrong with the title fights on offer Saturday. Yes, Alex Pereira should be fighting Magomed Ankalaev, but Khalil Rountree Jr. has done more than enough to warrant a title shot, and stylistically, this main event promises to be a crowd-pleaser.

And yes, Julianna Peña waltzing back into a title shot against Raquel Pennington after almost 800 days on the sidelines feels icky, but other than Kayla Harrison, is there anyone else on the women’s side at 135 pounds that you’re clamoring to see fight for the title? Norma Dumont? The matchmakers work with what they have.

But if we’re being honest with ourselves, what we want to see is Pereira take care of business, Pennington and Peña settle their beef without controversy, and Harrison impress enough in her main card bout against Ketlen Vieira to set up the most intriguing women’s bantamweight title fight since Peña’s rematch with Nunes.

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So cross your fingers nothing weird happens.

In other main card action, the GOAT Jose Aldo looks hold off rising bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, and Roman Dolidze returns to middleweight to face two-division competitor Kevin Holland.

What: UFC 307

Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City

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When: Saturday, Oct. 5. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET with three fights on ESPN+. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and ESPNews, followed by the five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.


(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (10)

Alex Pereira by knockout. Done.

With that predictable prediction out of the way, let’s examine a few less likely scenarios just for the sake of conversation.

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  1. Khalil Rountree turns the tables on “Poatan,” befuddling him in the standup for one or two rounds before smoking him with a no-doubt KO shot to shock the world. I mean, he’s called “The Glory Killer” for a reason and there’s no bigger former Glory star right now than Pereira.
  2. Pereira and Rountree battle tooth-and-nail for 25 minutes, giving us one of the best fights of the year—nay, all time, with the victor narrowly eking out a decision win. It’s hard to imagine these two throwing for five rounds and not landing a world-ender, but you never know.
  3. Pereira fools everyone by mixing the martial arts, channeling his mentor Glover Teixeira and taking Rountree to the mat at will. This D-I All-American/ADCC Champion hybrid version of Pereira grinds his way to a 50-45 win on the cards, much to the confusion of the gathered Utahns.

There’s a sick party of me that wants to see Scenario 3 unfold, but I’ve never been one to pick a long shot, so let’s play it safe and say the champ finishes Rountree in the second to set himself up for a huge matchup in 2025.

Pick: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (2, P4P-9) vs. Julianna Peña

Julianna Peña recently told MMA Junkie that she doesn’t believe in altitude training because the past two times she competed at elevation in Colorado and in Utah, she didn’t feel any ill effects. Maybe someone should remind her that she lost both of those fights?

Now, one of those losses was a decision to DeAnna Bennett that Peña disputes to this day, the other was an armbar submission loss to Valentina Shevchenko, so no shame in that either. But the fact is that she is 0-2 fighting at altitude and that can’t be ignored in a bout that’s likely to go five rounds, and against an opponent who is born and raised in Colorado.

Peña is essentially swimming to Atlantis to fight Aquaman.

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Admittedly, Raquel Pennington isn’t giving off rippling Jason Momoa vibes, but I’m not sure that’s a requirement to beat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will want to pressure her way to a win, but Pennington has rarely been overwhelmed by any opponent except for Amanda Nunes. And Peña ain’t Nunes.

The good news is I think this stylistic matchup will prove to be more entertaining than Pennington’s fight with Mayra Bueno Silva (what a high bar) and we should have a definitive winner in the end, so we can move on to Pennington vs. Harrison (spoiler!).

Pennington by decision.

Pick: Pennington

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Jose Aldo (7) vs. Mario Bautista

It’s going to be kind of weird watching Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista square off, because there’s so much of Aldo’s DNA in this current generation of lighter weight fighters. Bautista was in high school when prime Aldo was shredding WEC and UFC competition. Now he has to face down the best to ever do it.

This is such an unfair comparison to make, but the fact is that Aldo has only lost to the very best. Merab Dvalishvili. Petr Yan. Marlon Moraes. Alexander Volkanovski. Max Holloway. Conor McGregor. With the exception of the loss to Moraes (as close a decision as you’ll find), those are all UFC champions. Bautista is great, but a future UFC champion? I’m skeptical.

I could be looking at this all wrong. Maybe their fight will signal both the rise of Bautista as a true contender and provide a clear picture of Aldo’s current ceiling. But Bautista hasn’t proven himself against elite competition yet, so if anyone is due for a reality check, it’s him. Going from Benito Lopez, Guido Cannetti, Da’Mon Blackshear, and a spiritless Ricky Simon to Aldo is going to give Bautista some serious whiplash.

Look for Aldo to be just a little sharper and a little craftier en route to an entertaining decision win.

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Pick: Aldo

Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-12) vs. Ketlen Vieira (4)

Kayla Smash!

We talk about athleticism being a cheat code all the time and that’s just one reason why Kayla Harrison is expected to demolish Ketlen Vieira. When you add in a work ethic that’s in the 99th percentile, you can see why many fans are just counting the days until she has UFC gold around her waist.

Vieira is no walkover, let’s be clear about that. Outside of one disappointing performance against Irene Aldana, Vieira has gone the distance with the best of them and holds wins over former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, as well as one-time title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann. She’s a perfectly respectable B-tier contender.

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But Harrison has been a Grade-A prospect since Day 1 and if her win over Holly Holm is any indication, she’s at or near the peak of her powers. That’s bad news for Vieira who will test Harrison early before eventually succumbing to an unstoppable force.

Pick: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (14) vs. Kevin Holland

Roman Dolidze should have just stayed at light heavyweight, right?

He’d be giving up size, but coming off of a short-notice decision over Anthony Smith, the 36-year-old Georgian was realistically only a couple of wins away from a title shot in a thin division. Middleweight has been far more competitive in recent years and in Kevin Holland, Dolidze isn’t even fighting a true 185er. Then again, perhaps like Holland, it’s just about cashing those checks and going home to your family. Respect.

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Holland has made strides with his grappling defense, but I can’t help but picture Dolidze exploiting that once-fatal weakness and opting to tackle Holland to the canvas. Dolidze is hittable, so Holland’s exciting striking style could carry him to a win if this stays on the feet. Difficult matchup to call.

I don’t like how much size Holland gives up in this division and I think it will be his undoing. Dolidze mixes in power punches with timely tackles to beat Holland on the cards and jump back into the middleweight contender pool.

Pick: Dolidze

Preliminaries

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Stephen Thompson (10) def. Joaquin Buckley (15)

Marina Rodriguez (7) def. Iasmin Lucindo (14)

Cesar Almeida def. Ihor Potieria

Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard

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Ryan Spann def. Ovince Saint Preux

Carla Esparza def. Tecia Pennington

Court McGee def. Tim Means

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‘I was fighting on automatic pilot’ at UFC 306

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‘I was fighting on automatic pilot’ at UFC 306

Ronaldo Rodriguez went through hell and back to leave UFC 306 with his hand raised.

The Mexican flyweight prospect was basically knocked out in the opening seconds of his fight with Ode Osbourne last month at Noche UFC at Sphere. Rodriguez (17-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) was hit with a counter right hand and fell flat on his back and his arms away from his face. From there, “Lazy Boy” took some extra shots and was put in a tight triangle choke for a good minute, all while badly rocked.

“I remember the hospital, that, I remember well,” Rodriguez told MMA Junkie in Spanish. “Brother, I was fighting on automatic pilot. That Mexican heart, that Aztec blood that runs through my veins, that was what gave me the victory. It was God’s power and faith in God. The Holy Spirit went in my body and got me back up. It got me back up, and it didn’t allow me to give up because I can’t find any other explanation when I was knocked out on that octagon, when I was about to get submitted. I can’t find an explanation. That was God.”

Rodriguez not only survived the sequence, but went on to win the remaining two rounds to win a decision on the judges’ scorecards. It was easily one of the best comeback wins of 2024. The 25-year-old flyweight vaguely remembers the fight, and thanks his corner for keeping him locked in.

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“I do remember, but it’s a bit of a blur, like flashes,” Rodriguez said. “What I do remember well is my coach bringing me back. I told my corner after the first round, ‘Hey, I’m knocked out.’ I told them as soon as I got back from that first round that I was out. That’s what I saw in the replay and that’s when my coach Mike Gonzalez told me, ‘Brother, you need to come out with everything. We now know he’s got nothing on you on the ground. He can’t stop you there. You’re better than him.’ Thanks to my coach’s advice, we got the win.”

Rodriguez, who joined the UFC with a ton of hype and a big following from Mexico, is now 2-0 in the promotion. As far as what’s next, Rodriguez is down to fight wherever, whenever and against whoever.

“I’d fight against the best right now, but you know that decision doesn’t fall on me,” Rodriguez said. “I’m ready. I’m a hardworking man. I’m someone who’s like, ‘Oh, you want me to fight this guy? Where do I sign?’ I’m not someone who ponders on that and thinks if this is a good matchup or not, or anything like that. No. Beyond being an athlete, I’m a fighter.”

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Check out the Hablemos MMA YouTube channel for Spanish-language videos and interviews with MMA Junkie’s Danny Segura.

Be sure to visit the MMA Junkie Instagram page and YouTube channel to discuss this and more content with fans of mixed martial arts.

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Khalil Rountree’s coach compares Alex Pereira fight to Gokhan Saki knockout: ‘He’s going to shock a lot of people’

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Khalil Rountree’s coach compares Alex Pereira fight to Gokhan Saki knockout: ‘He’s going to shock a lot of people’

Khalil Rountree may not have the credentials to match Alex Pereira when it comes to career accomplishments, but it doesn’t make him any less dangerous when they start trading bombs at UFC 307.

Ever since he first started doing MMA, Rountree’s wins were usually defined by highlight-reel knockouts, and he’s never feared trading strikes with anybody. That included his 2018 fight against Gokhan Saki, who was one of the most credentialed kickboxers to ever set foot in the UFC octagon, and Rountree needed just over 90 seconds to send him to the shadow realm.

Rountree’s longtime head coach John Wood says the vibes are feeling awfully similar ahead of a showdown against Pereira this weekend.

“When the Gokhan Saki fight happened for Khalil, he was just amped,” Wood told MMA Fighting. “There was no hesitation. Same thing with this. We’re going to take it the same way. He’s going to shock a lot of people.

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“I believe Khalil can stand with anybody in the world. He’s got that level of talent when it comes to striking.”

Now just because Wood has full confidence in Rountree’s ability to end the fight with strikes, he’s not looking at Pereira as an easy opponent by any stretch of the imagination.

Since moving to light heavyweight, Pereira has gone undefeated and delivered three consecutive knockouts over two former UFC champions in Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill. Pereira is widely considered the most lethal striker in the sport, and Wood fully acknowledges that has to be respected.

“Pereira, we all know what he’s done and doing,” Wood said. “He is the legit boogeyman in the UFC right now. It’s the kind of stuff that gets me going in the morning. I love it.

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“There’s no doubt Alex is the best in the world at that division. The guy is as scary as they come. He’s got the power. He’s got the death touch. He’s got everything going for him right now, the hype, it’s not an easy task. I have a lot of respect for the guy for what he does. But with that being said, he’s never fought somebody like Khalil.”

When it comes to the potential exchanges on the feet, Wood believes there are absolutely areas where Rountree can put a hurting on Pereira where other opponents have failed.

“[Alex Pereira has] never fought somebody who has the power, the speed, the vision, the timing that Khalil has,” Wood said. “Khalil — I’m not going to say he’s better than Alex but he’s better at certain things.

“Alex is really good at doing what he does and it doesn’t always look pretty. As a coach, you could easily get caught up and say all of his stuff is technically wrong. He does that at the highest level. He does a lot of his shit to bring you in, to draw you in to think you can get there and then knocks you out. Khalil can do all that, just a lot sharper.”

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Because so much attention has been paid to the striking exchanges, Wood quickly points out that it’s an MMA fight and anything can happen. That means the team at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas is getting Rountree ready for everything — including a possible takedown attempt from Pereira.

“Try to take him down,” Wood said. “It’s going to be tough and you’re probably going to get clipped doing it. We’re ready for all facets. I talked to him today [and told him] you might clip Alex and he might want to turn this into a wrestling match. We’re going to be ready for everything.”

No matter how it plays out, Wood doesn’t see any world where Rountree and Pereira go for the full five rounds. The high chances that this fight ends in violent fashion had to at least play some part in the UFC’s matchmaking.

Wood wouldn’t offer an exact prediction but he expects Rountree to win and put Pereira away to do it.

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“I will not be surprised at all when this fight ends early and Khalil has that belt wrapped around his waist,” Wood said. “If you know and people that have followed, Khalil is another one of those guys really coming into his MMA game, really coming into his own as a fighter the last couple of fights. I do not see this fight going five rounds. There’s no humanly possible way that happens and I do not see Khalil losing.

“I think somebody is going out and I don’t think it’s going to be us and that’s with all due respect to Pereira and his team. He’s got a legendary coach. He’s a legend in his own right. It’s an honor to coach against these guys. Obviously, I’ve got a live dog in this fight and I think that we’re going to get it. There’s no doubt in my mind that Khalil leaves that cage with the belt.”

Of course, Rountree has dealt with some criticism that he didn’t earn this opportunity and there were more deserving contenders out there. He’s largely brushed that off and stayed focused on the task at hand, which is beating Pereira on Saturday.

His coach said much the same but promised if there’s any question about whether or not Rountree belongs in the same cage as Pereira, he’ll give an emphatic answer on Saturday.

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“I think you’re going to see the best Khalil Rountree that you’ve ever seen,” Wood said. “That is a scary, scary man.”

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UFC 307 live stream, updates: Pereira vs. Rountree watch-along

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UFC 307 live stream, updates: Pereira vs. Rountree watch-along

UFC 307 goes down Saturday night with two title fights atop the bill, and MMA Junkie Radio’s “Gorgeous” George and “Goze” will host a live-streamed watch-along right here at 8 p.m. ET.

In the headliner, light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira (11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) puts his title on the line against challenger Khalil Rountree (14-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC). In the co-feature, women’s bantamweight champ Raquel Pennington (16-9 MMA, 13-5 UFC) defends her title for the first time when she meets ex-champ Julianna Pena (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC). In addition, two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL champ Kayla Harrison (17-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) takes on Ketlen Vieira (14-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) as a huge favorite.

UFC 307 takes place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City and streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and ESPN+.

Below is the complete lineup of fights included in the watch-along:

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UFC 307 main card

  • Champ Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree – for light heavyweight title
  • Champ Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña – for women’s bantamweight title
  • Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
  • Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
  • Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland

UFC 307 preliminary card

  • Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson
  • Iasmin Lucindo vs. Marina Rodriguez
  • Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
  • Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 307.

Be sure to visit the MMA Junkie Instagram page and YouTube channel to discuss this and more content with fans of mixed martial arts.

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Southampton boss Russell Martin praises his side for some “brilliant moments” despite a 3-1 defeat at Arsenal.



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Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison pick, start time, odds: UFC 307

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UFC 307 weigh-in faceoffs with Harrison vs. Vieira, more

Ketlen Vieira and Kayla Harrison meet Saturday on the main card of UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. 

Last event: 2-4
UFC main cards, 2024: 81-72-3

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison UFC 307 preview

Harrison (17-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) believes her UFC women’s bantamweight title reign is “inevitable.” If that’s the case, she cannot afford to lose to Vieira (14-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC). … Vieira hasn’t competed in 15 months. After dropping a split decision to Raquel Pennington in January 2023, Vieira bounced back six months later to defeat Pannie Kianzad by unanimous decision for her third in her past four bouts. … Harrison’s move from dominating the PFL lightweight division to competing at 135 pounds for the first time was smooth as she finished former UFC champ Holly Holm by second-round rear-naked choke in her promotional debut this past April.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison UFC 307 expert pick, prediction

In an interesting choice to kick off the paid portion of the card, Harrison will meet No. 2 ranked contender Vieira.

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This is obviously an important fight given the title fight taking place in the co-main event, so I’m glad to see it on the main card.

Both fighters come from judo backgrounds but have seamlessly rounded their games since stepping onto the mixed martial arts scene. That said, I believe that Harrison will have the edge in both athleticism and urgency.

Although Vieira is officially 2-0 opposite UFC-level lefties and has the countering ability to cause some problems for Harrison on the feet, the Brazilian fighter can be a bit lackadaisical when it comes to taking the initiative in fights.

For that reason, I’ll side with Harrison to lead the dance in a fairly dominant win by unanimous decision.

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Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison UFC 307 preview odds

The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the American fighter, listing Harrison -1100 and Vieira +600 via FanDuel.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison UFC 307 start time, how to watch

Vieira and Harrison are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. locally in Salt Lake City). The fight will stream on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 307.

Be sure to visit the MMA Junkie Instagram page and YouTube channel to discuss this and more content with fans of mixed martial arts.

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Stephen Thompson scoffs at suggestion that Shavkat Rakhmonov just walks through Belal Muhammad

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Stephen Thompson scoffs at suggestion that Shavkat Rakhmonov just walks through Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad had to scratch and claw his way just to get a shot at becoming UFC champion, but even after winning the title in lopsided fashion over Leon Edwards, he’s right back in a familiar role as underdog again.

While nothing is official, Muhammad appears destined to defend his title against Shavkat Rakhmonov in either late 2024 or early 2025. With an undefeated record and a 100 percent finishing rate in his career, Rakhmonov is already heavily favored to take Muhammad’s title away from him should they meet.

But Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is quick to pump the brakes on Rakhmonov’s premature coronation having fought him and Muhammad within the past three years.

“Belal, he’s got every chance to go out there and do well against Shavkat just like Shavkat has a chance to beat him,” Thompson told MMA Fighting. “I mean he’s the champ. How can you sit there and say [Shavkat] is going to run through him when all we’ve seen from Belal is just domination with everybody? I don’t remember the last close fight that he’s had.

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“He did it to Sean Brady, he out-struck him, out-grappled him. He did it with everybody. Myself, Leon, Gilbert Burns. He fought every style. He’s fought strikers. He’s fought grapplers. He’s fought very well-rounded MMA fighters. Come on, you cannot sit there and tell me [Shavkat] is going to run through Belal.”

Truth be told, Thompson once had a similar opinion on Muhammad before he watched the future UFC champion take on noted grappler Demian Maia just six months before they fought.

That was a wake-up call that forced Thompson to reconsider Muhammad as a whole different kind of threat and it still didn’t prevent him from losing a unanimous decision when they met.

“I thought the same way whenever he fought Demian Maia,” Thompson said about Muhammad. “I’m like Demian Maia’s going to crush this guy. Demian Maia could not get this guy down. Some of the best takedown defense I’ve seen. Demian Maia, if he wants you on the ground, you’re going down and Belal did an amazing job with that fight and with everybody since then.”

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Thompson gives Rakhmonov plenty of praise as well after he suffered a submission loss to the top-ranked welterweight contender this past December. But just because Rakhmonov looks unstoppable doesn’t mean he can’t be beaten.

“I know [Belal is] the shorter fighter and Shavkat’s a great striker. He’s got good grappling but so does Belal,” Thompson said. “When push comes to shove, if they can’t get each other down, it’s going to be a standup match I think. Kind of like the Kamaru UsmanColby Covington [fights], I think they’re going to cancel each other out with their grappling. They’re not going to be able to get each other down.

“So it’s going to have to be with who’s got the better striking? Belal’s got a gas tank. Shavkat kind of likes to pace himself throughout the fight. He’s not in your face the entire time throwing strikes like Belal is. I think it’s going to be a good test for both. I think it’s going to turn into a striking match.”

While Muhammad has a lot of weapons in his arsenal, Thompson believes his remarkable conditioning might actually sit at the top of the list. He saw that on display when Muhammad dismantled Edwards over five rounds to become champion back in July.

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Thompson also saw Rakhmonov slow down considerably in a closer-than-expected battle against Geoff Neal that nearly went all three rounds.

“Geoff Neal, that wasn’t as fast-paced as Belal [fights],” Thompson said. “Belal’s going to make it an even harder pace, an even more intense pace than Geoff Neal did to Shavkat. He’s going to be in your face, looking for the takedown, up and down, up and down, and just making you work for five, five-minute rounds.

“If it makes it past the third, you’ll start to see that fatigue I think. Just from what I’ve seen of Shavkat, I think he’s going to get a little tired, be a little fatigued.”

Thompson won’t pick a winner because he knows the fight isn’t easy to predict. More than anything, he stresses that counting out Muhammad is done at your own peril.

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“I think if Shavkat wins, it’s going to be tough,” Thompson said. “I don’t think he walks through him one bit.

“My hat’s off to Belal. I think he’s very good. I think the Shavkat fight would be an amazing fight for him.”

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