Bitcoin price extended its decline on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a military response against Iran, triggering a broader risk-off move across global markets and adding fresh pressure to an already fragile crypto sector.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to an intraday low of $60,892 on June 9 before recovering slightly to trade around $61,813 at press time. The bellwether asset remained down 3% over the past 24 hours, while weekly losses widened to 14% as traders continued reducing exposure to risk assets.

Trump’s Iran response triggers risk-off move across markets

The latest wave of selling followed a sharp escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran. In a June 9 Truth Social post, Trump said an American Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz had been shot down and declared that the United States “must, of necessity, respond to this attack.” U.S. Central Command subsequently launched retaliatory strikes against Iran.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi disputed the accusation, saying Iranian forces had not intentionally targeted the aircraft and suggesting the incident occurred amid heightened military activity in the region.

The exchange has raised fears that the fragile ceasefire established earlier this year could unravel, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict.

Markets quickly shifted into defensive mode following the developments. Gold price climbed 1.8% as investors sought traditional safe-haven assets, while concerns about potential supply disruptions pushed WTI crude oil prices up 3.5%. Equity markets also weakened, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures trading lower as investors moved away from higher-risk assets.

The selloff accelerated across crypto derivatives markets as leveraged positions were forced to close. According to CoinGlass data, total liquidations reached $664.86 million over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin traders accounted for $124.22 million of those losses, highlighting the intensity of the decline.

Derivatives data suggests some speculative excess has been flushed from the market. Bitcoin open interest slipped 0.25% to $45.13 billion as traders reduced leverage and risk exposure. While the decline was relatively modest, it indicates participants remain cautious amid heightened uncertainty.

ETF outflows and extreme fear deepen Bitcoin’s decline

Beyond the geopolitical shock, Bitcoin continues to face pressure from weakening institutional demand. Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have suffered heavy outflows in recent weeks, with investors withdrawing roughly $4.4 billion between May 15 and June 8. The sustained capital flight points to a broader decline in institutional risk appetite toward Bitcoin.

The absence of fresh capital entering the market has become a growing concern for analysts. As per a report by crypto.news, trading firm Wintermute warned that current conditions make it difficult to identify a durable market bottom because inflows remain insufficient to absorb ongoing selling pressure.

The firm noted that Bitcoin’s volume profile contains a significant liquidity gap between $50,000 and $59,000, potentially leaving the asset vulnerable to sharp moves lower if support levels fail.

On-chain metrics also point to increasing stress among investors. According to Glassnode, nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit at the cycle peak. Following the recent correction, however, more than 8 million BTC are now underwater.

“Today, that figure has fallen sharply as over 8M BTC sit underwater, highlighting the scale of the recent market reset.”

TLDR

• Polymarket traders price a 60% chance of a June 9 Claude Mythos release.
• Cumulative Polymarket odds rise to 92% for release by July 31.
• Kalshi’s “Before July 1” contract stands at 43% probability.
• Total prediction market volume exceeds $2.2 million across platforms.
• Anthropic restricted the Mythos preview to about 50 vetted partners.

Prediction markets on Tuesday showed a 60% chance that Claude Mythos becomes public by June 9. Polymarket traders also priced a June 10 release at 19% while assigning 11% odds to no launch by June 30. Combined trading volume across related contracts has surpassed $2.2 million as rumors of an imminent rollout circulate online.

Anthropic Timeline Odds Diverge Across Platforms

Polymarket’s single-day contract placed a 60% probability on a June 9 release. In contrast, traders assigned 19% odds to June 10 and 11% to no release by June 30. That contract recorded $42,212 in trading volume by Tuesday morning.

A broader Polymarket market tracking cumulative odds showed higher confidence. Traders priced an 81% chance of release by June 10 and 86% by June 12. The probability rose to 89% by June 15 and 90% by June 30, while July 31 reached 92%, with $1,578,682 in volume.

Kalshi reflected lower expectations for a near-term launch. The “Before July 1, 2026” contract stood at 43% implied probability after a 30% confidence drop. Traders linked the decline to speculation that Anthropic may release the model under another name such as “Claude Fable.”

Kalshi’s broader “Before October 1” contract held at 73% probability. Total trading volume for that event reached $607,723. Together, prediction markets have accumulated more than $2.2 million tied to the Claude Mythos timeline.

Model Capabilities and Controlled Access

Anthropic introduced Claude Mythos Preview on April 7, 2026, and placed it above the Opus tier. The company restricted access to about 50 vetted partners at launch. Executives cited misuse risks, especially regarding cybersecurity capabilities.

According to a June 8 Axios report, the model can convert a new vulnerability into a working exploit in 31 minutes. Security researchers previously required weeks to complete similar tasks. Under Project Glasswing, partners reported identifying over 10,000 high or critical vulnerabilities between April and May.

Anthropic stated in a May 28 Reuters report that it planned to release Mythos “in the coming weeks.” The company also launched Claude Opus 4.8 as its flagship general-purpose model. A May 22 Project Glasswing update said the firm expects public release “once we’ve developed the far stronger safeguards we need.”

On June 1 and 2, Anthropic expanded Project Glasswing access to ENISA and about 150 organizations. These groups spanned more than 15 countries and included power, water, and healthcare operators. As of Tuesday morning, Anthropic’s newsroom and @AnthropicAI account showed no public release announcement.

Bitcoin’s recent selloff has yet to establish a durable market bottom as institutional demand remains absent and capital continues to leave spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to a new market note from Wintermute.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $61,828 on Tuesday, down 3.18% over the past 24 hours and more than 14% over the past week after falling to its lowest level since September 2024. The broader cryptocurrency market also remained under pressure, with total market capitalization dropping 2.8% to $2.21 trillion.

According to CoinGlass data, more than $1.78 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past day as long traders absorbed most of the losses. Total crypto derivatives open interest stood at around $103.5 billion, while daily futures trading volume reached $173.8 billion.

According to the latest weekly note from algorithmic market maker Wintermute, the recent correction differs from previous pullbacks because institutional demand continues to deteriorate rather than stabilize. The firm argued that the market remains vulnerable to further downside as large buyers have yet to return in meaningful size.

Wintermute said attention surrounding Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 has overshadowed the broader issue facing the market. While the transaction itself was relatively small, the firm believes the real driver of weakness has been a retreat by U.S. institutional investors that previously helped fuel Bitcoin’s rally earlier this year.

ETF flows continue to point lower

Wintermute’s concerns are reflected in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have experienced persistent redemptions over the past several weeks.

Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $91.37 million on June 8, reversing the modest inflows seen earlier in the month. Between May 15 and June 3, the funds endured a 13-session outflow streak that erased roughly $4.37 billion from the sector before briefly stabilizing on June 4.

The first week of June alone accounted for approximately $1.72 billion in net outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the withdrawals, losing about $1.38 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded outflows of roughly $201.9 million.

The sustained selling has significantly reduced assets held by the ETF sector. Total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs fell from more than $100 billion in mid-May to approximately $79.6 billion by June 8.

Wintermute also pointed to a negative Coinbase premium and weakening over-the-counter activity as evidence that U.S.-based institutions are reducing exposure. According to the firm, institutional desks have adopted a more cautious near-term stance and are using periods of liquidity to trim positions.

Macro headwinds weigh on risk assets

The firm’s outlook comes as financial markets adjust to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The latest nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above market expectations. At the same time, services-sector inflation accelerated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Markets are now assigning roughly a 98% probability that the benchmark federal funds rate remains unchanged through the end of 2026, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.57%.

Wintermute said the combination of higher yields and fading momentum in the AI-driven equity rally has reduced investor appetite for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

CryptoQuant sees signs of capitulation

Not all market indicators point to further downside, however. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah recently noted that Bitcoin Supply in Loss MA7D has climbed to 50%, its highest level of 2026. Historically, readings above that threshold have coincided with periods of market capitulation and the formation of major cycle bottoms.

The analyst noted that the last time the indicator reached similar levels was in November 2022, shortly after Bitcoin fell below $20,000 during the post-FTX bear market.

Wintermute acknowledged that some longer-term investors are gradually accumulating Bitcoin at current levels, viewing the correction as an attractive long-term opportunity. Still, the firm maintains that a lasting recovery requires renewed institutional demand.

Looking ahead, Wintermute identified the upcoming SpaceX IPO on June 12 as a potential gauge of broader market risk appetite. Until spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return and institutional buyers re-enter the market, however, the firm argues that a durable Bitcoin bottom remains unconfirmed.

The Ether (ETH) futures market saw its open interest (OI) on Gate.io fall by 45% to levels last seen in April 2025. At the same time, nearly 480,000 ETH left Binance, OKX, Gemini and Bitfinex over the past few days, reducing the exchange-held supply. 

The combined shift highlights a market with less leverage and declining exchange balances, placing greater focus on the $1,500 support zone, which some analysts view as critical to preventing a deeper move toward $1,000. 

Ether open interest falls across exchanges

Ether’s futures market has undergone a broad reset during the recent sell-off. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that total ETH open interest across exchanges has dropped 25%, to $12.6 billion from $16.6 billion in May, with several major trading platforms now at levels last seen in April 2025.

Ether open interest. Source: CryptoQuant

Gate.io recorded the largest decline. ETH open interest fell to $2.68 billion on June 9 from $4.84 billion on May 7, a drop of about 45%. The figure is now nearly identical to the $2.67 billion level recorded on April 11, 2025.

Bybit has followed a similar path. ETH OI currently stands near $805 million, close to the $795 million recorded in early April 2025. The move points to a significant reduction in leveraged positions that accumulated during the latter stages of 2025 and early 2026.

ETH open interest on multiple exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

However, Binance presents a different picture. ETH open interest remains near $2.76 billion, holding within its recent range. The funding rates have also turned negative on the exchange, with the latest reading near -0.0047, showing short traders are paying a premium to maintain their positions.

ETH funding rate on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The divergence is notable. Gate.io and Bybit have already seen a major leverage reset. Futures traders on Binance remain active, but the negative funding points to a cautious sentiment. 

Related: Bitmine boosts Ethereum treasury to 5.54M ETH, nearing 5% supply target

ETH supply drop meets key support at $1,500

Ether exchange reserves also posted a notable decline in early June. Across Binance, OKX, Gemini and Bitfinex, tracked ETH balances fell by 480,000 ETH over the past few days. 

ETH multi-exchange reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

Binance reserves dropped to 3.65 million ETH on June 9 from 3.87 million ETH on June 4. Bitfinex holdings declined to 2.50 million ETH from 2.67 million ETH at the end of May. OKX recorded the sharpest percentage decline, with reserves falling from 424,000 ETH to about 336,000 ETH. Gemini balances also slipped to roughly 522,000 ETH.

Continued ETH outflows could reduce the amount of readily available supply on exchanges if buying demand starts to recover. 

Onchain data shows many ETH holders are still far from large profits. According to market commentator Gonza Goth, only 11% of Ethereum’s supply is currently sitting at a 3x or greater gain, the lowest level since February 2017. However, Goth said, 

“Historically, extreme pessimism has created the best opportunities.”

ETH: relative supply by profit and loss. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, traders are also watching the $1,500 level next. Investor Ash Crypto noted that Ether failed to hold every support level during the 2022 bear market, when the price eventually bottomed near $880. 

The analyst said a weekly close above $1,500 would keep ETH above a historically important support zone, while a break below it would shift attention toward the next major support area near $1,000.

ETH/USD, one-week chart analysis by Ash. Source: X

Related: ETH falls to 13-month low on Zcash bug, Bitcoin below $60K: Is $1.4K next?