USA, Mexico and Canada Dream and Nightmare Scenarios

After three years of buildup as co-hosts of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, United States Soccer, Canada Football and Mexico Football will finally learn their three group stage opponents on Friday afternoon when FIFA stages the World Cup draw from the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.

All three host nations will receive Pot 1 seeding, meaning they’ll be able to avoid the other nine nations seeded highest in FIFA’s rankings. And with six spots still up for grabs via UEFA and intercontinental playoffs, the chance of being drawn against a potential playoff winner means some teams still won’t know their full group picture after Friday.

Even so, we know enough to envision potential best-case and worst-case scenarios for the host nations, factoring in rules that prevent the hosts from facing other Concacaf opponents, more than two opponents from Europe, or more than one opponent from other confederations.

Here’s what a dream draw and nightmare draw might look like for our three co-hosts.

USA, Canada and Mexico Best-Case Scenarios

Pot 2: IR Iran

The USMNT has already faced Iran Football twice in its World Cup history, most recently earning a deserved 1-0 victory on a Christian Pulisic goal on the final day of Group B play in 2022.

But although Team Melli is again considered one of the best qualifying nations from Asia by FIFA, Iran was also the lowest-scoring of Asia’s three group winners in the third round of qualifying. In their away matches, they clearly hadn’t moved on from the dour tactics of 2022, scoring one goal combined in 270 minutes against Uzbekistan, the UAE and Qatar.

In a tournament where eight third-place group finishers will advance, it seems almost certain that Iran would face the USA, Canada or Mexico aiming for a draw and nothing more. Which would probably be fine for the hosts.

Pot 3: Scotland

Every team will have to face one European foe in the group stage, and the most desirable choice is clearly a Scotland Football side that will be appearing in its first World Cup since France ’98.

It’s not that Scotland will necessarily be the weakest European team in the group. It’s that they’re the weakest European team in Pot 3. And if a team has already drawn non-European nations in Pots B and C, it will be forced to accept an opponent from the UEFA playoffs in Pot 4, which has the potential to increase overall group difficulty significantly.

Pot 4: New Zealand

New Zealand won’t be the worst qualifier in Pot 4. But they’re by far the least battle-tested after qualifying out of an Oceania region that no longer includes Australia. And because there is a potential to face another Concacaf team, the three World Cup co-hosts can’t be drawn with one of the intercontinental playoff spots.

Tournament debutants Cabo Verde and Jordan would be other friendly draws to the host nations.

USA, Canada and Mexico Worst-Case Scenarios

Pot 2: Colombia

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Tabbing Colombia Football here doesn’t mean they’re the best of the Pot 2 teams. But in our judgment, they’re the best of the Pot 2 teams outside of those from UEFA.

And if any of the co-host nations draw Colombia, they could then go on to draw European foes out of Pots 3 and 4 to manifest a true Group of Death scenario.

There are other hypothetical difficult Pot 2 teams that would also leave open a similar possibility; Ecuador is coming off a truly impressive CONMEBOL qualifying run, Uruguay Football has plenty of talent and one of the world’s most respected managers in Marcelo Bielsa, and Morocco Football is a returning World Cup semifinalist. But Colombia gets the nod here given the overall roster talent level, with a squad that includes Liverpool‘s Luis Diaz, Crystal Palace‘s Jefferson Lerma and Daniel Munoz, and Wolverhampton Wanderers‘ Jhon Arias.

Pot 3: Norway

Like Scotland, Norway is playing in its first World Cup since 1998. Unlike Scotland, Norway has arguably the best goalscorer on Earth in Manchester City‘s Erling Haaland.

Arsenal‘s Martin Ødegaard gives the Scandinavians additional star power, and there are other well-traveled veterans of Europe’s top leagues across the roster.

And a perfect 8-0-0 qualifying record in a group that included Italy suggests the ability to make a deep World Cup run.

Pot 4: Italy

Yes, Italy have again failed to qualify directly from the group qualifying phase and face a four-way UEFA playoff pod that includes Northern Ireland, Wales, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

But they’re still a side just four years removed from winning a major international trophy and one that has international success as part of its inherent pedigree.

And with honorable mention to Denmark, Austria and ​ Turkey, the Azzurri remain the most talented of Europe’s playoff contenders.​