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Israel marks first anniversary of Hamas attacks

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This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It is going to be a difficult start to the next seven days for many as Israel marks the first anniversary of the Hamas attacks when more than 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were taken hostage. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and military leaders hit back and the conflict has escalated over the past 12 months.

But on Monday, people will stop to remember. Thousands of Israelis are expected to pay their respects at the Nova Music Festival memorial, the location of a rave where Hamas killed 364 and kidnapped 44 partygoers and staff a year ago. Others will travel to Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, where families and supporters have campaigned for the release of those taken. Memorials will be held in various communities that lost neighbours and relatives in the attacks, notably Kibbutz Be’eri, where more than 100 people were killed and 32 taken hostage.

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On a more uplifting track, this week will bring rolling announcements on the winners of this year’s six Nobel Prizes. Given the war in the Middle East and beyond, interest in the Peace Prize, announced on Friday, is likely to be high.

The corporate world takes up a lot of the news diary slack this week as we find ourselves deep in the earnings season. The big moment will be the Wall Street banks, which begin reporting on Friday. I’m not sure they will be mentioning this, but I’d recommend reading the excellent analysis of the rise of secretive trading firms such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities by US banking editor Joshua Franklin.

And then there is the long-awaited Robotaxi launch event by Tesla in Los Angeles on Thursday. What will they cost? When will they be ready to hit the streets? And does this mean Tesla owners can list their cars to be used for ride-hailing? All important questions.

Economic data is on the thin side this week, with US and German inflation figures and a UK monthly GDP estimate about the best of it. More details below.

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One more thing . . . 

The matter of Parkrun is also a cause of division, but thank you to everyone who got in contact about it to share your passion for getting your running shoes on or about other group outdoor pursuits. Saturday will bring an outdoor event I could get into: The Peckham Conker Championships. Organisers are promising a 22-carat golden conker — I think it may be spray painted — but it does sound fun.

I’m interested in your priorities for the week ahead. Drop me a line at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Germany: August manufacturing, new orders and sales index

  • UK: Halifax House Price Index

  • Results: Ferrexpo Q3 production report, Grainger trading statement, Repsol trading statement, Shell Q3 quarterly update

Tuesday

  • October Prime Day, a global ecommerce shopping event by Amazon, offering deals to its Prime members in 19 countries

  • Germany: August industrial production index

  • UK: British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

  • Results: Imperial Brands pre-close trading update, OMV Q3 trading update, PepsiCo Q3, S&U HY, Unite Group trading update, XP Power Q3 trading update

Wednesday

  • Witan Investment Trust hold a second general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed winding-up of the company and combination with Alliance Trust. If approved, the deal is expected to complete shortly after the meeting by means of a voluntary liquidation of the company and combination of the two companies to create Alliance Witan

  • US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

  • Results: CMC Markets HY pre-close trading update, Marston’s trading update

Thursday

  • Tesla due to unveil its Robotaxi, a launch event postponed, according to post on X (formerly Twitter) by chief executive Elon Musk, because of a design change

  • UK: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Residential Market Survey

  • US: September consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

  • Results: Delta Air Lines Q3, Domino’s Pizza Q3, Fast Retailing FY, Liontrust Asset Management HY trading update, Seven & i Holdings Q2, Tata Consultancy Services Q2, Treatt FY trading update, Volution Group FY

Friday

  • Germany: final September CPI and Harmonized Consumer Price Index inflation rate measures

  • UK: August GDP estimate

  • US: September producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Plus, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

  • Results: Bank of New York Mellon Q3, BlackRock Q3, Hays Q1 trading update, JPMorgan Chase Q3, Jupiter Fund Management Q3 trading update, Wells Fargo Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

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Monday

  • Israel: first anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel that caused more than 1,200 deaths with hundreds taken hostage

  • Laos: Asean Business and Investment Summit bringing together more than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives with world leaders begins, running alongside the Asean Summit

  • Philippines: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol meets President Ferdinand Marcos Jr for bilateral talks in Manila. The two are expected to sign an agreement and issue joint statements after the meeting

  • Sweden: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine announced, the first of several science prizes that will be given out over the coming todays. Tomorrow is physics, followed by chemistry on Wednesday

Tuesday

  • Luxembourg: Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of EU finance ministers.

  • UK: Alexander Darwall and his wife Diana Darwall bring an appeal against the decision of the UK Court of Appeal that the Dartmoor National Park Authority can allow wild camping in the national park. The Darwalls own the 4,000-acre Blachford Estate in Dartmoor and previously won a High Court case ruling that there was no right to wild camp on Dartmoor without the landowner’s permission. The Court of Appeal overturned that decision

  • US: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump participates in a town hall presented by Spanish-language network Univision

Wednesday

  • 150th anniversary of the Universal Postal Union under the Treaty of Bern, which unified a complex maze of postal services and regulations into a single postal territory and allowed for the growth of global post deliveries

  • Mozambique: presidential and parliamentary elections

  • UK: Conservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Thursday

  • World Mental Health Day, raising public awareness about mental health issues

  • Sweden: Nobel Prize for Literature announced

  • UK: Unleashed, a memoir of former prime minister Boris Johnson, is published. The pre-publication publicity promises revelations on campaigning for Brexit, how he nearly died from Covid-19, bikes, buses and the London Olympics

  • US: President Joe Biden begins trip to Germany and Angola

  • US: Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris participates in a town hall presented by Spanish-language network Univision

Friday

  • Greece: government due to present a revised national climate plan, with more ambitious targets for the share of renewable power in its electricity mix and lower carbon emissions

  • Sweden: Nobel Peace Prize winner announced

Saturday

  • Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid

  • UK: Peckham’s annual conker championship returns

Sunday

  • China: publishes September CPI and PPI inflation rate figures

  • Lithuania: parliamentary elections

  • UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s first 100 days in office

  • US: John Donahoe retires as Nike president and chief executive. Elliott Hill succeeds him tomorrow

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UniCredit-Commerzbank deal is test case for ECB

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

What seemed unthinkable days ago is happening: a major Eurozone bank plans to acquire another in a different member state. UniCredit, Italy’s second lender, says it holds contingent derivative instruments which would give it effective control of Commerzbank, the second-biggest bank in Germany by market capitalisation (“The trouble with UniCredit’s interest in Commerzbank”, Opinion, September 30).

The two banks are a good match. After years of draconian clean-up and restructuring, UniCredit recently outperformed most European peers by net returns and market valuation. Now worth twice what Commerzbank is worth, it is an internationally diversified group, experienced in restructuring itself and other banks. It already owns an important mortgage unit in Germany, which would generate synergies. Commerzbank, by contrast, with a cost ratio well above UniCredit’s and profits about a tenth of the size, may benefit from some internal cure. Both banks have sound capital and liquidity positions.

In its recent report on European competitiveness, Mario Draghi called for banking integration in the Eurozone, even suggesting special legislation is needed to bring it about. This deal would mark a remarkable step in the right direction.

But within Germany, it is fiercely opposed by the political establishment and trade unions, fearing loss of control and job cuts.

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At the time of writing, the only obstacle seems to be authorisation by the European Central Bank, on prudential grounds. Its supervisory board, chaired by former Bundesbank vice-president Claudia Buch, includes top officials from the Bundesbank and BaFin, Germany’s financial watchdog. All of them are bound by statute to act independently in the sole interest of the EU bloc and not take instructions from governments or any other bodies.

The UniCredit-Commerzbank deal is a test case for the ECB, which will reverberate into the future, and be a golden opportunity for its supervisory board to uphold its independence.

Ignazio Angeloni
Senior Policy Fellow, SAFE, Goethe University Frankfurt; Non-resident Fellow, Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

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Drink and petrol levies haven’t changed behaviour

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Milo Brett’s letter suggesting that the NHS budget could be enhanced by subsidising no-alcohol drinks (Letters, September 25) and thus reduce alcohol -related treatments in the NHS is wishful thinking.

Roughly 35 per cent of the cost of a litre of petrol and 50 per cent of a litre of Gordons gin goes to tax yet that levy does not seem to deter the James Bond wannabes from driving fast cars and drinking martinis. Subsidising mocktails and electric cars seems unlikely to fuel mass take-up.

Peter Breese
Lauzerte, France

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Stranded property assets require decisive action now

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

Mark Carney’s warning about stranded assets in commercial real estate is timely (Report, October 3), but his considerations should not be limited to offices, as many residential property portfolios face similar challenges.

The stop-start nature of policymaking has severely damaged investor confidence and limited investment in the sector. Our own research shows that 45 per cent of large real estate companies in the UK lack access to sufficient private capital for net zero measures. This shortfall extends beyond commercial properties to residential buildings, hampering progress overall.

Carney’s assertion that he’s “sanguine about commercial real estate risks in the financial sector” overlooks a more significant concern: the impact of stranded assets on savers. As pension funds and individual investors face potential losses from devalued properties, the financial stability of millions could be at risk.

To address these challenges comprehensively, the UK should relaunch a green jobs task force to co-ordinate efforts across the built environment sector to retrofit and install heat pumps at pace. The consumer price inflation CPI plus 1 per cent rent cap agreement has gone some way to ensuring housing associations have certainty of income, but more must be done to ensure the works get under way and properties do not devalue. A social housing retrofit scheme such as that introduced in the Netherlands (known as Energiesprong) could allow landlords to borrow for retrofits based on forecasted future energy bill savings.

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The transition to net zero presents both risks and opportunities. By taking decisive action now, we can mitigate the risks of stranded assets while creating a more resilient and sustainable property sector that benefits both the economy and individual savers.

James Alexander
Chief Executive Officer, UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, London EC2, UK

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Make financial education compulsory in English schools, business urges

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A cross-industry coalition of businesses has urged the UK prime minister to make financial education compulsory in all English schools, adding pressure on the government to ensure children are taught how money works from an early age.

Financial education was added to the curriculum for local authority-run secondary schools in 2014, but it is largely incorporated in non-core subjects, such as citizenship. The subject is optional for academies and free schools.

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In an open letter, the Financial Education Council (FEC), a subcommittee of The Investing and Saving Alliance (TISA), said implementation of the subject “remains inconsistent and its impact limited.”

The call to boost personal financial education comes as the Labour government consults on a proposed overhaul of the school curriculum. A review is being led by Becky Francis, chief executive of the Education Endowment Foundation charity.

The letter has been signed by groups including L&G, Schroders, GoHenry, NatWest Cushon, Rathbones, Foresters and Bank of Ireland.

The businesses said they backed recommendations made earlier this year by the House of Commons education select committee, who asked ministers to review the contents of the current maths curriculum to expand “the provision and relevance” of financial education. 

The crossparty group of MPs called on the government to make the “personal and societal elements” of financial education compulsory at both primary and secondary school level.

Campaigners have warned that confidence in basic numeracy is at a low level among young people, which only compounds pressure on them during a cost of living crisis.

Several charities, including the Financial Times’ Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign, have pressed the government for better financial education.

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Carol Knight, TISA CEO said: “There is clear evidence that the delivery of effective financial education during childhood is of great benefit both from an individual and a societal perspective: helping to increase financial inclusion, financial confidence and, ultimately, increase economic growth.

“For these reasons, TISA is calling on the prime minister to add financial education to the curriculum so that all children can benefit from a high-quality and effective financial education.” 

A Department for Education spokesperson said financial education already forms a compulsory part of the national curriculum covering personal budgeting, calculating interest, financial products and services, and how public money is raised and spent.

“The Curriculum and Assessment Review led by Becky Francis recently launched a call for evidence and we encourage experts, teachers, parents and key organisations like the Financial Education Council to respond to help shape their recommendations to government,” the spokesperson added.

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UK power market reforms pose danger to industry and investment, ministers told

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Proposals to split Britain’s electricity market so that prices differ by region risk pushing up manufacturers’ costs and deterring investment, some of the UK’s largest trade groups have warned the government. 

UK Steel, Make UK, RenewableUK and the Global Infrastructure Investor Association have written to ministers saying they are worried that the proposals, developed by the Conservative government, could “increase the risks of de-industrialisation”.

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“We are clear that splitting Great Britain into several regional price zones would undermine investment in low-carbon energy and risks penalising the UK’s energy-intensive industries with higher electricity costs,” they said in the letter sent on Friday and seen by the Financial Times.

The message comes at a sensitive time for the new Labour government, which is trying to demonstrate the UK’s attractiveness to investors ahead of its global investment summit on October 14. The recipients included energy secretary Ed Miliband and Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary.

The proposed reforms are part of sweeping potential changes to the electricity market first advanced in 2022, to adapt to the shift to renewable sources of generation such as intermittent wind and solar power. Labour, which is making a big push on renewable energy, has yet to outline its position on them.

Currently Britain has a single national wholesale electricity price. The proposals include an option to split the market so that wholesale prices differ by region, depending on supply and demand.

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Proponents argue this could make the market more efficient and keep system costs down by encouraging consumers to use electricity when it is abundant nearby, rather than letting it go to waste, as frequently happens.

Guy Newey, chief executive of Energy Systems Catapult, the innovation centre, said the market needed “urgent reform”, adding: “Zonal pricing is already common in a huge number of international markets and has driven down costs for consumers.”

Ultimately, supporters argue the move could encourage industry to shift to areas with abundant renewable supply, such as parts of Scotland, while developers could expand in areas less well supplied with renewable electricity, as they could get higher prices.

However the trade groups are concerned that the proposals would risk higher prices for industries that consume large quantities of electricity, such as steel, glass and ceramics. They would also add to the risks faced by renewable developers, they said.

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“A miles-wide steel plant simply cannot up and leave to get access to lower power prices elsewhere,” added Frank Aaskov, director of energy and climate change policy at UK Steel, in comments separate to the letter. 

“This is before we consider the billions invested in operations, let alone the workers who could get left behind.”

Relatively high electricity costs have long been a source of complaint for industry, which is moving away from fossil fuels. Both Tata Steel and British Steel are closing coal-fired blast furnaces in the UK and moving to electric arc furnaces.

Jon Phillips, chief executive of the Global Infrastructure Investor Association, noted that global investors “seek long-term, low-risk investments that generate steady returns”.

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He added: “The introduction of zonal pricing . . . risks undermining the government’s ambitions to attract more international investment into the UK. It’s important that energy policy provides the long-term stability that investors seek.”

A UK government spokesperson said it was reviewing responses to the consultation on the issue and would “ensure that any reform options taken forward focus on protecting bill payers and encouraging investment”.

“Our new industrial strategy will deliver long-term, sustainable growth right across the UK by supporting our industries and driving private investment into our economy,” they added.

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Uncertainty over UK government’s plans puts brakes on hiring

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UK businesses have put hiring on hold because of uncertainty over the government’s plans on tax, industrial strategy and workers’ rights, a closely watched survey showed on Monday.

Recruiters placed fewer people in jobs in September, in a continuation of a market slowdown that has lasted two years, the monthly report from KPMG and the Recruitment & Employment Confederation showed. Meanwhile growth in starting salaries was at its weakest since February 2021.

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Jon Holt, UK senior partner at KPMG, said businesses had put the brakes on recruitment in the run-up to the Budget to “wait for clarity on future taxation, business and economic policy”.

Recruitment agencies responding to the survey said they had placed fewer people in permanent positions that month because “unclear government policy” had made their clients cautious.

An index measuring permanent placements rose from 44.6 in August to 44.9 in September, but remained well below the reading of 50 that would signal stable activity. Meanwhile a decline in temporary billings gathered pace.

The figures are the latest sign that confidence in the UK economy has been rattled by ministers’ warnings that tough decisions on tax, benefits and spending would be needed in the Budget to balance the books.

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A separate survey published last month showed the prospect of a painful Budget had also hit households’ morale, with consumer confidence dropping sharply in September, even though the Bank of England’s August interest rate cut was starting to feed through to mortgage rates.

Since then, chancellor Rachel Reeves has been seeking to convey a more upbeat message, telling the Financial Times last week that the Budget would be about investment, and not about fresh public sector austerity.

“The government needs to continue to give chief executives confidence in the UK’s macroeconomic conditions and the country’s route to stronger growth,” said Holt.

Recruiters polled by KPMG and the REC have been reporting falling demand for staff for more than a year. In September, the drop in demand for permanent roles was sharpest in retail, construction and in the technology sector. The only significant growth in demand was for medical, nursing and care workers.

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Because of the drop in demand, businesses that struggled to fill vacancies a year ago are now finding there are far more candidates looking for work, the survey indicated — some recently made redundant.

The KPMG/REC survey is closely watched by policymakers at present, because ongoing problems with the Office for National Statistics’ labour force survey mean there is no reliable gauge of unemployment.  

REC chief executive Neil Carberry said any further move by the BoE to cut interest rates would boost business, but that “eyes are also on the government” to set a clear industrial strategy and give employers more certainty over its plans for sweeping reforms to employment law.

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