Business
Rising US Trade Growth Amid Expanding China Deficit
Despite US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs in 2025 to reduce America’s trade deficit, key Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs—Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—paradoxically expanded their trade surplus with the United States.
Malaysia’s US trade surplus rose 45 percent to US$23.2 billion , driven by resilient exports of electronics, machinery, and processed food, benefiting from US tariff cuts and exemptions on critical items. Vietnam recorded the largest US surplus among regional nations, reaching a record US$133.8 billion , a 28 percent increase. Thailand also saw its US surplus climb 44 percent to US$51.3 billion , largely due to strong electronics exports. This unexpected growth followed initial tariff hits and subsequent negotiations, where countries like Malaysia secured reduced rates and exemptions, while also pledging not to impose export bans on critical minerals.
Widening China Deficits and Transshipment Risks
Concurrently with their expanded US surpluses, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam experienced a significant widening of their trade deficits with China in 2025. This trend suggests that Chinese goods, seeking to circumvent higher US tariffs, increasingly flowed into these Southeast Asian markets. Malaysia’s deficit with China jumped 62 percent to US$38.4 billion , while Thailand’s rose 50 percent to US$67.8 billion. Vietnam’s China deficit increased by 40 percent, reaching US$115 billion.
This dynamic has raised concerns among experts regarding potential transshipment risks , where Chinese firms might be routing products through these neighboring countries before re-exporting them to the US, effectively bypassing American tariffs and distorting trade flows.
2026 Outlook: Projected Export Slowdown and Tariff Headwinds
Looking ahead, the trade landscape for Southeast Asia in 2026 is clouded by persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, with analysts forecasting a slowdown in exports . Trump’s continued protectionist rhetoric, including new tariffs on South Korean cars and threats against European nations, underscores the volatile environment.
Both the Thai Commerce Ministry and DBS for Malaysia have warned of expected slowdowns in exports as the clearer impacts of existing and newly introduced US tariffs manifest throughout the year. Experts like Archanun Kohpaiboon suggest the 2025 trend of widening US surpluses is unlikely to continue, anticipating that new US trade agreements will lead to increased imports from the US by partner countries, consequently reducing their trade surpluses and posing a significant risk to the overall ASEAN economy this year.
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Seafood stocks dip amid margin pressure and competition
The trade deal between the two nations is crucial for the Indian marine exports since the US is India’s largest market with 36.3% share in FY25, according to the data from the government’s Niryat (exports) portal. In addition, frozen shrimp makes up nearly two-thirds of India’s marine shipments to the US.
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects a lower tariff rate to improve India’s cost position relative to Ecuador, Vietnam and Indonesia. This may also help reverse the slowdown in exports seen between August and November 2025 when Indian shipments to the US sharply declined amid effective duty rates as high as 58% compared with 18-49% for other exporting countries. Ind-Ra also expects the shrimp processing industry to fare better than its earlier forecast of a 12% year-on-year revenue decline and a 150-basis points margin compression for FY26. Improved order visibility is also likely to ease working-capital pressures.
AgenciesMargin pressure, intense competition weigh on the sector’s outlook
According to CareEdge, shrimp exports to the US rose 5% during the five months to August and then fell by 35% in August over July 2025, following strong frontloading of volumes ahead of higher reciprocal US tariffs. Indian exporters shifted towards other countries, but it affected profitability given that the US market generates higher value.
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Though the trade deal has boosted hopes of a US market recovery, with the peak holiday season over and global demand set to soften in 2026, analysts expect the rebound to be gradual.
Shares of marine exporters jumped 6-31% on the BSE in five trading sessions since February 2, following the announcement of the India-US trade deal. Avanti Feeds and Waterbase were the top gainers, rising 31% and 27% respectively, while Sharat Industries and Coastal Corporation saw comparatively smaller gains of about 6% and 10%.
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