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Rising US Trade Growth Amid Expanding China Deficit

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Rising US Trade Growth Amid Expanding China Deficit

Despite US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs in 2025 to reduce America’s trade deficit, key Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs—Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—paradoxically expanded their trade surplus with the United States.

Malaysia’s US trade surplus rose 45 percent to US$23.2 billion , driven by resilient exports of electronics, machinery, and processed food, benefiting from US tariff cuts and exemptions on critical items. Vietnam recorded the largest US surplus among regional nations, reaching a record US$133.8 billion , a 28 percent increase. Thailand also saw its US surplus climb 44 percent to US$51.3 billion , largely due to strong electronics exports. This unexpected growth followed initial tariff hits and subsequent negotiations, where countries like Malaysia secured reduced rates and exemptions, while also pledging not to impose export bans on critical minerals.

Widening China Deficits and Transshipment Risks

Concurrently with their expanded US surpluses, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam experienced a significant widening of their trade deficits with China in 2025. This trend suggests that Chinese goods, seeking to circumvent higher US tariffs, increasingly flowed into these Southeast Asian markets. Malaysia’s deficit with China jumped 62 percent to US$38.4 billion , while Thailand’s rose 50 percent to US$67.8 billion. Vietnam’s China deficit increased by 40 percent, reaching US$115 billion.

This dynamic has raised concerns among experts regarding potential transshipment risks , where Chinese firms might be routing products through these neighboring countries before re-exporting them to the US, effectively bypassing American tariffs and distorting trade flows.

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2026 Outlook: Projected Export Slowdown and Tariff Headwinds

Looking ahead, the trade landscape for Southeast Asia in 2026 is clouded by persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, with analysts forecasting a slowdown in exports . Trump’s continued protectionist rhetoric, including new tariffs on South Korean cars and threats against European nations, underscores the volatile environment.

Both the Thai Commerce Ministry and DBS for Malaysia have warned of expected slowdowns in exports as the clearer impacts of existing and newly introduced US tariffs manifest throughout the year. Experts like Archanun Kohpaiboon suggest the 2025 trend of widening US surpluses is unlikely to continue, anticipating that new US trade agreements will lead to increased imports from the US by partner countries, consequently reducing their trade surpluses and posing a significant risk to the overall ASEAN economy this year.

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Scholar Rock: From Manufacturing Hurdle To Commercial Muscle, Maintaining Buy Rating (NASDAQ:SRRK)

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Doctor sharing medical results with woman

This article was written by

Lifescience investor focused on non-consensus long-short investment ideas. I focus on small to mid-cap biotechnology companies that are public on the US and EU markets. I like to delve into clinical catalysts or play earnings on new drug launches. I do not provide personal investment advice. All content that I provide, including but not limited to opinions, analyses, commentaries, forecasts, stock picks, and investment strategies, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the content may contain errors, inaccuracies, or omissions. Any financial decisions or investments made based on the information presented in this article are solely at your own risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses, damages, or other consequences resulting from actions taken in reliance on the information provided. You should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. This article reflects my personal views and opinions and is not affiliated with any employer, financial institution, or advisory firm. No representations or warranties are made regarding the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the content, including any external links provided. Any third-party links are for informational purposes only, and I do not endorse or take responsibility for the content or services offered by external sources. All information is provided on an “as is” basis without any express or implied warranties.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SRRK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I do not provide personal investment advice. All content in this article, including but not limited to opinions, analyses, commentaries, forecasts, stock picks, and investment strategies, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the content may contain errors, inaccuracies, or omissions. Any financial decisions or investments made based on the information presented in this article are solely at your own risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses, damages, or other consequences resulting from actions taken in reliance on the information provided. You should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. This article reflects my personal views and opinions and is not affiliated with any employer, financial institution, or advisory firm. No representations or warranties are made regarding the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the content, including any external links provided. Any third-party links are for informational purposes only, and I do not endorse or take responsibility for the content or services offered by external sources. All information is provided on an “as is” basis without any express or implied warranties.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Protagonist presents one-year data for psoriasis drug ICOTYDE

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Protagonist presents one-year data for psoriasis drug ICOTYDE

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KRE: Valuations Are Declining, But May Not Correct Soon

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KRE: Valuations Are Declining, But May Not Correct Soon

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Viant Technology Inc: Will This Beaten-Down Ad-Tech Stock Bounce Back? 3 Things To Know

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AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

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Experienced Equity Research Analyst with a decade of expertise in analyzing US equities. I employ a top-down investment approach, prioritizing company fundamentals and reports to cut through market noise. My focus lies in identifying companies with expansive, high-growth markets, a distinctive product offering or economic moat, and a proven ability to translate revenue into strong cash flow.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?

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Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?


Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?

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Erika Kirk Escalates Legal Battle Against Online Critics While Pushing Christian Revival Tour in 2026

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Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012

Erika Kirk, the widow of assassinated conservative activist Charlie Kirk and current chairwoman and CEO of Turning Point USA, is navigating a turbulent period marked by intensified legal threats against online detractors, public scrutiny over her leadership style, and continued efforts to advance her late husband’s mission through a national speaking tour and political engagement.

Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012
Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012

Kirk has sent a fresh cease-and-desist letter to the operator of Project Constitution, accusing him of defamation for alleging her involvement in Charlie Kirk’s September 2025 assassination and unsubstantiated claims linking her to sex trafficking tied to Jeffrey Epstein. The letter asserts that such statements are “absolutely false and made with actual malice,” escalating a broader battle against far-right influencers and conspiracy theorists who have questioned her grief, personal life and role at the influential conservative organization.

Charlie Kirk, the co-founder of Turning Point USA, was shot and killed on the campus of Utah Valley University in September 2025 during a speaking event. Erika Kirk, who had been married to him since 2018, quickly assumed leadership of the organization and has since positioned herself as the steward of his legacy, frequently describing her work as a way for “daddy to continue to live on forever” through the group’s mission.

In recent weeks, Kirk has responded to a wave of viral memes and satirical content mocking her public appearances and persona. Comedian Druski’s sketch impersonating “how conservative women in America act,” which included a portrayal widely seen as referencing Kirk, drew tens of millions of views and sparked backlash from some conservative circles who called it disrespectful to a grieving widow. Kirk addressed the memes in a recent statement, pushing back against what she described as unfair attacks while maintaining focus on her faith-driven work.

Despite the online controversies, Kirk has remained active on the national stage. In February 2026, she attended the State of the Union address as one of President Donald Trump’s invited guests, where Trump acknowledged her presence and called for rejection of political violence in memory of her husband. She has also been appointed by Trump to the U.S. Air Force Academy Board of Visitors, replacing her late husband on the advisory panel.

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Kirk launched the “Make Heaven More Crowded” tour in January 2026, kicking it off at Harvest Christian Fellowship in Riverside, California, alongside pastor Greg Laurie. The tour, which blends calls for Christian revival, prayer and conservative values, has included stops across the country, though some events — such as a planned appearance in Orlando — were postponed amid venue controversies. She has vowed to help build a “red wall” for Republican candidates in the 2026 and 2028 elections.

Public appearances have not been without friction. A scheduled visit to the Utah State Capitol in February, where she was to receive a citation, was canceled after news of the event leaked. Kirk has also faced internal and external questions about Turning Point USA’s direction under her leadership, with some critics accusing her of shifting the organization’s tone or priorities.

Legal proceedings related to her husband’s death continue. Kirk has invoked a rare Utah victims’ rights law to push for a speedy trial of the accused gunman, Tyler Robinson, arguing against defense delays. She publicly forgave the accused killer during a large memorial service attended by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in September 2025.

Online discourse around Kirk has grown increasingly polarized. Some conservative voices, including Candace Owens, have launched investigative-style series questioning aspects of Kirk’s background, past statements and personal life, including claims about her upbringing and other personal details. Kirk’s supporters dismiss these as baseless attacks aimed at undermining a prominent conservative woman, while detractors continue to circulate unverified theories. Kirk has largely avoided engaging directly with the most extreme claims, instead redirecting attention to Turning Point USA’s youth outreach and faith-based initiatives.

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At 37 years old, Erika Kirk (née Frantzve) has emerged as a more visible public figure than before her husband’s death. Born in 1988, she previously worked in business and nonprofit roles. She and Charlie Kirk had been vocal about their Christian faith and traditional values, and she has continued that emphasis in her speeches, often framing her leadership as a divine calling.

Turning Point USA, founded in 2012, focuses on conservative activism on college campuses and among young people. Under Erika Kirk’s leadership, the organization has maintained its events and programming while navigating the emotional and operational challenges following the assassination.

Kirk has spoken openly about the grief process, describing moments of finding “divine work” in tragedy while also facing criticism from some quarters that her public activities — including high-profile events and merchandise efforts — do not align with traditional expectations of mourning. She has rejected such judgments, stating that continuing her husband’s work honors his memory.

As 2026 progresses, Kirk faces a complex landscape: leading a major conservative nonprofit, defending against defamation claims, countering online satire and speculation, and positioning herself within the broader Trump-aligned political movement. She has endorsed JD Vance for future leadership roles and maintains a close relationship with the Trump circle.

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Supporters view her as a resilient figure carrying forward an important legacy amid personal loss. Critics, including some within conservative media, question her authenticity or motives. The intense scrutiny reflects the highly charged nature of contemporary political discourse, where personal tragedy quickly intersects with ideological battles.

Kirk continues to emphasize themes of faith, revival and rejection of political violence in her public remarks. Whether her legal actions against critics will deter further attacks or fuel more speculation remains to be seen. For now, she appears focused on Turning Point USA’s mission and her tour, while navigating the spotlight that has intensified since September 2025.

The coming months could bring further developments in the legal case surrounding her husband’s death, additional tour stops, and ongoing debates about her role in conservative politics. As one of the most visible women in the movement, Erika Kirk’s every move draws attention from allies and adversaries alike.

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Powerball Jackpot Climbs to $166 Million for Saturday, March 28, 2026 Drawing: Cash Value $74.5 Million

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Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over to an estimated $166 million for Saturday night’s drawing after no ticket matched all six numbers in Wednesday’s drawing, lottery officials said.

Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.
Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.

The estimated cash value for the Saturday, March 28, 2026, drawing stands at approximately $74.5 million, offering players a choice between the annuitized jackpot paid over 30 years or the immediate lump-sum option. Drawings are held at 10:59 p.m. ET every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

Wednesday’s winning numbers were 7, 21, 55, 56 and 64, with a Powerball of 26 and a Power Play multiplier of 4x. While there was no jackpot winner, lower-tier prizes were claimed across the country, including two tickets that won $2 million and $1 million in some states through matching five numbers or with Power Play.

The jackpot had stood at an estimated $148 million with a cash value of about $66.9 million heading into Wednesday’s draw. With another rollover, the prize has grown for the Saturday drawing, continuing a pattern of steady increases that often captivates players when the top prize climbs into nine figures.

Powerball is played in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tickets cost $2, with an optional $1 Power Play add-on that can multiply non-jackpot prizes. Sales typically surge as the jackpot rises, with players dreaming of life-changing windfalls.

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The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot remain 1 in 292,201,338, making it one of the longest shots in American lotteries. Despite the slim chances, the allure of a massive payout draws millions of ticket buyers, especially when the prize exceeds $100 million.

Lottery officials remind players that every ticket has the same chance of winning regardless of where or when it is purchased. They also urge responsible play, recommending that people set a budget and treat lottery tickets as entertainment rather than an investment strategy.

For Saturday’s drawing, players have until approximately 9:59 p.m. local time in most jurisdictions to purchase tickets, though cutoffs vary slightly by state. Online sales are available in many participating states through official lottery apps or websites.

The most recent Powerball jackpot was won earlier in March when a ticket sold in Arkansas claimed a $250.8 million prize on March 2. That winner had the option to take the cash value or the annuity.

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Powerball jackpots begin at $20 million and increase with each drawing that has no grand-prize winner. The prize grows based on ticket sales and interest rates, which affect the cash value calculation.

In addition to the jackpot, Powerball offers nine other prize tiers, ranging from $4 for matching just the Powerball to millions for matching five white balls. The Power Play option can increase those prizes up to 10 times in some cases, though the multiplier for the jackpot itself does not apply.

As of late Saturday morning, the countdown to the drawing showed roughly 13 hours remaining until the 10:59 p.m. ET drawing time. Players across the country were checking their tickets from previous drawings and buying new ones in hopes of becoming the next multimillionaire.

Financial advisers caution that sudden wealth from lottery winnings comes with challenges, including taxes — federal withholding of 24% plus potential state taxes — and the need for professional guidance on managing large sums. Many past winners have opted for the cash value to gain immediate control over the funds.

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Stories of past Powerball winners often highlight both the opportunities and pitfalls of sudden riches. Some have used winnings to fund education, start businesses or support charities, while others have faced personal struggles after the initial excitement.

The Multi-State Lottery Association, which administers Powerball, emphasizes transparency in jackpot estimations and prize payouts. Official results are posted shortly after each drawing on powerball.com and through state lottery websites.

For those playing Saturday, common number-picking strategies include quick picks, birthdays, anniversaries or “hot” and “cold” numbers based on past frequency. However, every combination has an equal probability.

As the clock ticks down to the March 28 drawing, excitement is building in convenience stores, gas stations and online platforms where tickets are sold. In states like California, Florida, New York and Texas, which often see high sales volumes, retailers report increased foot traffic when jackpots reach this level.

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The $166 million annuity equates to 30 graduated annual payments, starting lower and increasing over time. The cash value represents the amount available if the winner chooses the lump sum, which is invested to fund the annuity option for future jackpots.

Powerball has created hundreds of millionaires since its inception, with some prizes reaching well over $1 billion in recent years. The game’s sister lottery, Mega Millions, also frequently produces massive jackpots, giving players multiple opportunities for big wins.

With no winner on Wednesday, attention now turns fully to Saturday night. If the jackpot goes unclaimed again, it will roll over once more for the Monday drawing, potentially climbing higher.

Players are encouraged to sign the back of their tickets immediately after purchase and keep them in a safe place. They should also double-check numbers against official results, as unclaimed prizes eventually return to state lotteries for education and other programs in many jurisdictions.

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As the drawing approaches, the message from lottery officials remains consistent: play responsibly, have fun and remember the long odds. For one lucky ticket holder on Saturday, however, those odds could deliver a life-altering $166 million prize — or the $74.5 million cash alternative.

The drawing will be broadcast live and results will be available shortly afterward on official channels. Whether the jackpot is claimed or rolls over again, Powerball continues to capture the imagination of players hoping for that one-in-a-lifetime break.

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Braskem S.A. 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:BAK) 2026-03-28

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q4: 2026-03-27 Earnings Summary

EPS of -$5.34 misses by $3.76

 | Revenue of $3.07B (-6.50% Y/Y) misses by $23.39M

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel

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At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel


At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel

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Pricy airfare, airport chaos test travelers

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Pricy airfare, airport chaos test travelers

Travelers wait in line at a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston, Texas, US, on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

Mark Felix | Bloomberg | Getty Images

TOKYO/NEW YORK — Genevieve Price considers herself a great flight hacker.

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The 35-year-old naturopathic doctor based in San Diego usually buys basic economy tickets when she visits her family in New Jersey and then uses her Alaska Airlines frequent flier status to pick a seat, something that’s usually not allowed for those no-frills fares.

“I like to travel a lot,” Price told CNBC at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, where she was returning from Rome.

But Price said she has her limits, and is planning to cap the spending she does on future flights, such as no more than $900 to Rome, where her partner is from.

Consumers’ willingness to fly is being put to the test this spring as soaring fuel prices are leading to higher airfares. Cathay Pacific, SAS, Finnair and others are among the carriers that have already raised fares.

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Travelers also have to contend with hourslong airport security lines in the U.S. because of the second government shutdown in half a year that’s hitting the Transportation Security Administration, leaving many frustrated.

Fuel and fares

Fuel at major U.S. airports was going for $3.98 on Wednesday, up nearly 60% since before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The conflict has meant crisis for the aviation industry, particularly in the Middle East, where airspace closures have forced carriers to cancel flights and take longer and costlier routes.

Airlines will brief investors starting early next month on the longer-term impacts, but they immediately started raising airfare or increasing fuel surcharges on tickets to help cover the rising costs.

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United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters at a company event in Los Angeles this week that airfare could go up 20% this year. Customers appear willing to keep booking even though carriers are passing those high fuel costs along to travelers, he added.

Other airlines have also said demand has held up.

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told a JPMorgan industry conference earlier this month that demand has remained strong in recent weeks and that the airline is “well-positioned” to recapture the spike in fuel from its own sales.

U.S. airlines have seen solid demand for years. International travel has been a strong point, particularly for high-end leisure travel, which has brought so many visitors that governments from Japan to Spain have taken steps to reduce overtourism, while locals have protested.

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But airline executives said they will prune flights if demand falls.

“We’re certainly going to be nimble in terms of capacity to make sure that supply and demand stay in balance,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at the JPMorgan conference.

United, for its part, is preparing for fuel prices to remain elevated through next year and is cutting about 3 percentage points off of its capacity in off-peak travel times, like midweek and redeye flights, Kirby told employees this month.

Fares up

Some of the higher fares are already here.

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Fares for flights across the Atlantic from the U.S. were going for $1,059, with three weeks advanced purchase, up 26.5% from the prior week, according to a Deutche Bank note on Monday.

Domestic routes, including transcontinental flights and flights to and from Hawaii, were also up, the report said.

Mary Jean Erschen-Cooke, a nurse from Cuba City, Wisconsin, who was setting out earlier this month from Tokyo on a 10-day trip through Japan with her husband, Paul, said she has a host of domestic U.S. family trips this year.

“We haven’t booked our flights, but we should,” she said, adding that she and her husband would consider driving for one of them. She noted that gasoline prices are also up, which will affect driving.

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Security snarls

The TSA PreCheck line at terminal B in LaGuardia Airport in East Elmhurst, Queens, New York City, on March 27, 2026.

Leslie Josephs | CNBC

Along with higher airfare, travelers are facing challenges at airports this spring.

TSA officers have been working without regular pay since Feb. 14 because of an impasse in Congress over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Nearly 500 TSA officers have quit, according to DHS and elevated call-outs have left airports short-staffed.

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That’s led to long security lines at major airports around the U.S., including in Houston, New York, and Atlanta. Wait times have exceeded three hours in some locations — longer than some of the flights those airports offered — as lines have snaked through terminals and outside of airports.

Elizabeth Leddy, a 38-year-old classical pianist based in New York, said she flies several times a year. The long security lines, which were running nearly 90 minutes at LaGuardia Airport for TSA PreCheck flyers on Friday, could be a deterrent for her doing that in the future.

Leddy said that if the security line was three to four hours long, “I feel like I could just drive.”

DHS has blamed Democrats for the closure, which has become the longest partial shutdown in U.S. history. As of Friday afternoon, the Senate had passed a potential deal to end the shutdown, thought its fate was unclear.

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President Donald Trump separately said he would sign an order to get the more than 50,000 TSA officers paid. TSA officers will start getting paychecks as early as Monday, DHS said Friday.

The Trump administration this week sent Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to several U.S. airports, though DHS hasn’t specified what their duties are. ICE officers, who also sit under the DHS umbrella, are still getting paid during the partial shutdown.

Trump deploys ICE agents to airports as DHS shutdown continues

ICE officers were seen at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on Friday morning watching security lines.

“Even if this manages to slightly reduce wait times (we’re still reading about terrible wait times, so we’re far from big improvement), ICE presence could cause some individuals to fear traveling and upset TSA workers not getting paid,” Bernstein said in a note on Thursday. “Seems possible passenger throughput softens over the coming days and TSA screening YoY growth for this week turns slightly negative.”

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