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Women abused by police officers say they feel ignored by forces

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Women abused by police officers say they feel ignored by forces
Alvaro Medina Jurado A woman sits on a bed with her back to the camera, looking towards a windowAlvaro Medina Jurado

Women say behaviour like physical violence has been ignored by police forces

Women abused by former police officers say they feel the issue has been ignored by forces for decades.

One woman said she was “kicked and punched black and blue” by her ex-partner, who was a policeman at the time and other officers who witnessed it did not take any action.

The victims commissioner for England and Wales said she often hears of victims being “ignored or fobbed off” by police forces.

The Home Office said it was clear standards must urgently improve, and that the UK government has pledged to introduce mandatory professional standards on vetting and misconduct.

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Mary – not her real name – told BBC Wales Live her ex partner formerly served as a police officer in Wales, and violently attacked and controlled her through their relationship over many years.

“I always thought police officers were there to uphold the law and be compassionate, but that wasn’t the case for me,” she said.

She said her partner punched her in her face, ripped her clothes and threw her into a wall in front of fellow officers at a social event when he was off duty.

“Nobody rang me after to ask if I was OK, and as far as I’m aware nothing was said to him. I felt totally abandoned,” Mary said.

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She said she was too scared to report the behaviour, and that she felt no one would believe her word against a police officer.

Mary’s experience took place decades ago, however only now has she spoken out for the first time.

Earlier this year she wrote an anonymous testimony to the campaign group Police Me Too, which publishes stories of those who claim they have been abused by police officers.

“After the Sarah Everard case, I was so angry and shocked. I thought even after all these years even if it helps one person, I must speak up,” Mary said.

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“I don’t think dreadful behaviour in the force has improved – look at some current high profile cases.”

The founder of the website Police Me Too said she is also a survivor of police misconduct.

Freya – not her real name – said hers and Mary’s experiences aren’t isolated. Since she created her website in 2021, she said he’s had 170 stories submitted – with at least 38 different named police forces.

Other women BBC Wales Live spoke to said behaviour like stalking and harassment wasn’t taken seriously, despite following complaint procedures and escalated cases to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).

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Baroness Newlove A middle-aged woman, Baroness Newlove, wearing spectacles gesturing to other people in a meetingBaroness Newlove

Baroness Newlove says some victims feel they’re “fobbed off” by police

The victims commissioner for England and Wales, Baroness Helen Newlove, said it is “paramount that victims have confidence in the police” to investigate misconduct thoroughly and fairly.

She said a victim survey she carried out suggested that two in five victims were dissatisfied with police response and 73% lacked confidence that reporting a crime would lead to justice.

Home Office figures show there were 42,854 complaints against specific officers for the year ending March 2023.

In the same year only 972 – or 2% – of cases ended up in a formal process, like a hearing where a disciplinary or dismissal can be issued.

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A middle-aged policeman, Det Sgt Gareth Morgan, looks at the camera in his uniform

Det Sgt Gareth Morgan said officers won’t be protected if they behave inappropriately

South Wales Police gave BBC Wales Live exclusive access to meet people in their teams at the forefront of the force tackling misconduct.

Earlier this year the force was one of only two graded as good – following an inspection of how it deals with corruption.

But just last year an officer with the force was jailed for having sex with a vulnerable victim of crime he met while on duty.

Det Supt Gareth Morgan, who heads the force’s professional standards department, said: “I believe it was the first conviction in the UK, [where] we proactively identified his behaviour, rather than wait for a complaint – which was the unique bit of this case.”

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He said software which screens police systems like phones and emails showed “red flags” which meant officers started to build a case.

Software which runs 24/7recognises around 5,000 words and emojis which could be deemed as offensive or inappropriate.

“There’s certainly no way in South Wales Police we would try and protect people because they’re police officers,” he said.

A middle-aged woman, Det Ch Insp Donna Clutterbuck, looks at the camera wearing police uniform standing in front of a South Wales Police logo on a wall

Det Ch Insp Donna Clutterbuck says there is confidence within the force to report bad behaviour

Det Ch Insp Donna Clutterbuck helped to create sexual harassment training – which has been rolled out in most forces across England and Wales.

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“I just feel that I’ve got a duty [not just] as a police officer, but as a woman in policing to make sure that everyone is safe in the workplace.”

She said 49% of police staff questioned after a Unison report in 2018 said they had heard sexualised jokes being told repeatedly.

“As a result we held focus groups with people who had 28 years service and some who had less then two years service and the stories were still similar. It was still happening.”

The South Wales Police area served as the pilot for the training, and she said more than 102,000 police officers and staff nationally have now undertaken it.

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“We’ve had an uplift in reporting [internally] which shows people know it’s going to be taken seriously and they will be believed,” she said.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “This government has pledged to introduce mandatory professional standards on vetting, checks, and misconduct for individual officers; and stronger training on violence against women and girls.”

The IOPC said: “We take the issue of police misconduct very seriously, in particular police perpetrated domestic abuse (PPDA).  We are committed to supporting police forces to improve their handling of PPDA and enhance the trust and confidence of victim-survivors.”

If you are affected by any of the issues in this article you can find details of organisations that can help via the BBC Action Line.

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A Florida mobile home park is told to evacuate but some residents have nowhere to go

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A Florida mobile home park is told to evacuate but some residents have nowhere to go

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Homes knocked off their foundations, piles of wet carpet, wood and pipes rotting in the sun, and abandoned cars and trucks littering roads glazed with mud and blocked by debris.

With one of the most powerful hurricanes in a century barreling toward Florida on Tuesday, the Twin City mobile home park was already a scene of devastation because of Hurricane Helene.

Now, as Hurricane Milton stays on track to hit the state Wednesday, residents of Twin City say they’re unprepared for the double whammy of nearly back-to-back hurricanes.

While millions of Floridians living in the path of the storm were heeding urgent evacuation orders, a few holdouts were still hanging around the wreckage of the low-lying mobile home park.

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Twin City Mobile Home Park in Saint Petersburg, Fla., on Oct. 8, 2024. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

The Twin City mobile home park in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Tuesday.

Mark Prompakdee, a 71-year-old retiree who has lived in the park for five years with his older brother, said they survived Helene by packing everything they could into their minivan and camping out for two days in a nearby high school parking lot on higher ground.

He said they plan to do the same before Milton arrives because they have nowhere else to go and no family or friends to stay with.

“They’re saying, ‘Get out of here,’” Prompakdee said. “Where?”

Several of the homes in the park were deemed uninhabitable by local officials after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on Sept. 26. They were marked with signs that read “Unsafe” and “Do not enter or occupy” in bright red lettering.

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The home of Jesse Hancock, 39, and Ria Blaight, 34, was flooded by Helene’s surge, but unlike their neighbors, they have someplace to go — Blaight’s father’s house in nearby Pinellas Park.

Jesse Hancock and Ria Blaight tried to salvage what they could Tuesday from their flooded home in the Twin City mobile home park. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

Jesse Hancock and Ria Blaight tried to salvage what they could Tuesday from their flooded home in the Twin City mobile home park.

But Pinellas Park, just north of St. Petersburg, is also in a mandatory evacuation area. As Hancock and Blaight loaded a borrowed car with whatever belongings they could salvage from their wrecked home, they were still weighing the pros and cons of evacuating.

“You’re picking and pulling straws here,” Hancock said.

“Stay with your ship and stick with it or abandon ship and go somewhere else that might be worse,” Blaight said. “It’s a two-headed coin. Scary either way.”

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Walter Smutz, a disabled 47-year-old military veteran, said he and his wife have been sleeping in their cars since Helene flooded their mobile home. All the furniture inside was either destroyed or infested with maggots.

“Right now, I’m homeless and scared to death,” said Smutz, who returned to Twin City to salvage what he could before Milton hit. “I’m worried about getting on my feet. I just want a home. I don’t care what kind of home.”

Twin City Mobile Home Park in Saint Petersburg, Fla.,  (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

Twin City mobile home park in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Tuesday.

Smutz said Lakeshore Management, the company that manages the mobile home park, deceived them about the potential for flooding when they rented the plot where they parked their home.

“When I bought this place a year ago, the guy scammed me,” Smutz said. “He lied to me about the floods and everything.”

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Smutz and other tenants also said Lakeshore Management is making them pay the $750 monthly plot rental fee, even though their homes are now uninhabitable.

An unidentified woman who answered the phone at the Twin City office said, “That’s not what’s happening,” when NBC News asked to speak to a representative for Lakeshore Management about the tenants’ complaints.

Officials at Lakeshore Management’s headquarters in Skokie, Illinois, did not respond to a request for comment.

Tenant Ninda Menegias, who has lived at the Twin City mobile home park for 11 years, said she reluctantly returned to the nearby hotel where she stayed when Helene came through.

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The home of Ninda Menegias, a Twin City resident who is staying at a nearby hotel to wait out Hurricane Milton. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

The home of Ninda Menegias, a Twin City resident who is staying at a nearby hotel to wait out Hurricane Milton.

“We had to get a boat to get out,” Menegias, 70, said by phone. “The water was about 4 feet. The water was in my home.”

After the floodwaters receded, Menegias said she went back to her home and camped out in the only semi-habitable room of her “castle,” a bedroom that stunk of mold.

That lasted for only a few days, as residents were ordered to evacuate again.

“It’s a mobile home, but I paid a lot of money,” she said, her voice cracking with emotion. “I lost everything. I don’t know what to do.”

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Matt Lavietes reported from St. Petersburg and Corky Siemaszko from New York City.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

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Hurricane Milton strengthens again as Florida residents urged to leave

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Unlock the US Election Countdown newsletter for free

US President Joe Biden urged people in the path of a hurricane barrelling towards Florida to evacuate their homes “now, now, now” as the catastrophic storm strengthened again on Tuesday afternoon.

Biden warned that the “devastating” Hurricane Milton, which was hurtling towards a highly populated stretch of the state’s west coast with winds of 165 miles per hour, could be one of the worst storms to hit Florida in more than a century.

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Milton is on track to make landfall on Wednesday night after returning to category 5 strength, according to the National Hurricane Center, with storm surges of up to 15 feet predicted in some areas.

NHC forecasters warned that Milton had “the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida”.

Map showing predicted path of Hurricane Milton as it barrels towards Florida

As of Tuesday afternoon, millions of people living in 14 Florida counties were under mandatory evacuation order. Global risk advisory firm Guy Carpenter said Milton could cause the largest number of evacuations since Hurricane Irma in 2017, when 6.7mn people left their homes.

“This is literally catastrophic,” Tampa mayor Jane Castor said in an interview with CNN. “I can say this without any dramatisation whatsoever: if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.”

Milton is the second major hurricane to hit the US in a fortnight after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc across several south-eastern states, killing more than 225 people and destroying roads across western North Carolina. Verisk, a data analytics group, said on Tuesday that the insurance industry could face losses from Helene of up to $11bn.

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Biden postponed an overseas trip to Germany and Angola to remain in Washington and oversee preparations for the storm, and manage the recovery efforts linked to Hurricane Helene.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made a series of false claims in the wake of Helene, accusing the government of withholding aid from Republican disaster victims. Vice-president Kamala Harris on Monday called Trump “extraordinarily irresponsible” for spreading misinformation.

Map showing the forecast accumulated rainfall from Hurrican Milton between October 8 and 10. More than 300mm (12 inches) of rain is expected in parts of Florida

The White House said on Tuesday that Biden had called the Republican governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and had spoken to Castor the previous evening to discuss plans, and had been briefed by NWS director Ken Graham on the expected effects of the storm on Florida.

DeSantis said on Fox News on Tuesday morning that the prospect of “another monster storm” hitting the state was “not easy”.

“It’s been very taxing on our citizens to have to go through this just as you’re starting to pick up the pieces from Helene,” he said. 

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DeSantis warned that debris from Hurricane Helene “could become projectiles” and said he had ordered all state agencies with trucks available to help clean up destruction. 

The prospect of two big hurricanes hitting the US in quick succession threatens to strain federal emergency responses and the US economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic told an event in Atlanta on Tuesday that the higher frequency of hurricanes could disrupt supply chains.

Chevron, the US oil major, said it had shut down oil production at the Blind Faith platform in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the hurricane and removed its staff from the site. 

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Airports in Tampa and Orlando said they would suspend operations, and theme parks including Walt Disney World were among the businesses announcing closure plans.

Last week, homeland security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that the Federal Emergency Management Agency did not have enough funding to make it through this year’s hurricane season.

“We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have,” Mayorkas told reporters while en route to South Carolina following Hurricane Helene. “We are expecting another hurricane hitting — we do not have the funds, FEMA does not have the funds, to make it through the season.”

Lawmakers last month replenished FEMA’s disaster funding, providing up to $20bn as part of a short-term funding bill aimed at averting another government shutdown. In a letter to Congress last week, Biden warned that the agency’s disaster relief fund faced a shortfall at the end of the year.

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Halloween TikTok Trick Goes Viral: Makes Pumpkin Carving Easier

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Halloween TikTok Trick Goes Viral: Makes Pumpkin Carving Easier

Quick Hollowing Process

By cutting the bottom of the pumpkin, you can place a candle securely on the ground and simply place the pumpkin over it.

This avoids the hassle of lowering a candle into the pumpkin from the top and the risk of burning your fingers.

According to another TikTok user, cutting the bottom speeds up the hollowing process, claiming, “The hollowing only takes a quarter of the normal time.”

Others noted that this method prevents the top of the pumpkin from caving in as it rots.

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“We’ve always done it this way! So easy to just place it over your light!” commented one enthusiastic user. The video has already received thousands of likes, and many users are trying the trick themselves.

As with any viral hack, there are a few skeptics.

Some users argue that cutting the bottom of the pumpkin causes it to rot faster.

“We tried it this year, and they didn’t even last a week before they went moldy,” warned one commenter.

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Transcript: Markets send mixed signals

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This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Markets send mixed signals

Katie Martin
US markets are a little bit weird at the moment. Rates markets are telling us that investors think the Federal Reserve will cut maybe six or seven more times in the next year, which generally means bad stuff is coming our way.

But stocks are still flying pretty high, even despite a flare up in geopolitical heat. Meanwhile, the latest jobs data from the US tells us that the economy is smoking hot. Today on the show we’re asking, what is with all the mixed signals and what are we supposed to make of it?

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I’m Kate Martin, a markets columnist here at FT towers in rainy London. I’m expecting a decent soaking on my way home tonight on my bike. And hooray, Rob Armstrong off of the Unhedged newsletter is back by dope demand. He’s been doing some real shoe-leather reporting, as we journalists like to say, taking the pulse of the US economy. Rob, did you find a pulse?

Robert Armstrong
Shoe-leather reporting may flatter me a little bit. What I did is I went to a humongous mall in Pennsylvania and kind of looked around and talked to people and looked in stores and generally thought about things. It was more like I went on a trip to contemplate the US economy rather than actually doing any hardcore reporting.

Katie Martin
What’s your best anecdote from your time on the road talking to real America?

Robert Armstrong
That is a good question. Well, I’ll tell you this. I’ll pose a puzzle to you. So I went to this huge mall and all the stores in the mall opened at about 10 in the morning. And I was like just walking up and down this humongous mall. It’s like a mile long, there’s 450 stores. I didn’t see anybody do a transaction until like 11.45. So why did they open all the stores at 10? We put that as a puzzle to you. Is it because, well, the employees have to be there to fiddle the stock around anyway or do something? They might as well open the door in case there should be a customer. But nobody goes to the mall at 10. Why are the stores open at 10? You know, it’s a weird thing.

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Katie Martin
But not every day can be like Black Friday.

Robert Armstrong
It’s true. Not every day. This was on a random Thursday, but I was quite struck by that. But man, Americans will shop. That place by two in the afternoon, the place was jumping. People were buying stuff. The American consumer, as judging by the King of Prussia mall in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, is just fine, thanks very much.

Katie Martin
Never underestimate the American consumer.

Robert Armstrong
Never.

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Katie Martin
Now then, let’s start at kind of the beginning. Is the US overheating? Because there was some scorching jobs numbers we had on Friday.

Robert Armstrong
No, it’s not overheating. I mean, the great motto of the Unhedged newsletter, there’s two mottos. One motto is calm down. And the second motto is one month is just one month. So we had like three months of very . . . 

Katie Martin
OMIJOM.

Robert Armstrong
OMIJOM. That’s how we say it. OMIJOM. You know, we had three months of pretty middling job numbers. And then we did get a pretty jumpin’ report for September. But, you know, there is a lot . . . There’s a big margin for error in these surveys and, you know, as we’ve seen in the last six months or so, these numbers hop around. So until you get three strong months . . . 

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Katie Martin
(Inaudible) look around but, you know, this one was hoppin’, though, right? So the US added . . . 

Robert Armstrong
256,000 jobs or something like that . . . 

Katie Martin
I think it was 254. But anyway, that’s a lot of jobs and the unemployment rate came down to like 4.1. Just edged a little bit lower.

Robert Armstrong
Yup. And, you know, the jobs were spread around the economy — you know, it was leisure and hospitality, it was everything. So, you know, so it was a good report. And, you know, the markets really responded. And the funny thing is, before that report, everybody is like, well, there’s a secret slowdown in the economy that’s coming and what could even be a recession or whatever. There’s cracks in the edifice or, you know, a metaphor of your choice. And then we get this one report and it’s like it’s overheating. Inflation’s coming back, you know? And so it’s like we’re all over the road in terms of sentiment here.

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Katie Martin
We are all over the road. And like, the thing is, though, it is quite a weird situation where you’ve got jobs numbers absolutely blasting through expectations. And it’s worth noting that July and August got revised up somewhat as well like straight after the Fed just cut benchmark interest rates by half a percentage point. And it’s like something is not right with this picture. But it also in terms of the market reaction that you just mentioned, like this is what investors are constantly saying to me, which is that the Fed is data-dependent, right? It doesn’t really have a plan. It’s responding to data points as and when they come in, which means that the market has to respond to data points as and when they come in.

Robert Armstrong
As and when they come in.

Katie Martin
Which means we’re all just getting like pinged around all over the place on every data release. And it’s exhausting, frankly.

Robert Armstrong
Yes, it is exhausting. But I think it’s the best you can do, right? What else is the Fed supposed to do except respond to the information that it has in front of it, right? I mean, I want them to take a slightly longer-term view and look at the average of several reports rather than making the mistake of getting too excited about one month. Being data-dependent is quite jarring at times, quite volatile at times. But the other option is just being an idiot, which is not as good, you know, so . . . (Laughter)

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Katie Martin
Works for you.

Robert Armstrong
(Laughter) Well, I’ve done a lot of field research on being an idiot . . . 

Katie Martin
(Laughter) Some real shoe-leather reporting.

Robert Armstrong
And it’s been mixed outcomes so far, Katie. Let me just say there are . . . 

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Katie Martin
(Inaudible) as you say. Yeah, go on.

Robert Armstrong
There are a couple of other things. No, I’m interrupting you, Katie. Don’t interrupt me while I’m interrupting you.

Katie Martin
No, go on, then. Go on.

Robert Armstrong
There are a couple of other things that are suggestive that the economy in the US and the world might be heading for faster growth. Not to say overheating, but let’s say faster growth. One thing is, at least until today, there was the first spark of excitement about the Chinese economy that we’ve had in a long time because the government said we are going to do things to make things better. And the stock market went bananas, which like affirmed this signal that maybe the Chinese government will do fiscal stimulus or something that will start this economy. So that got people excited.

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And the commodities markets have followed. Copper has had a decent month though it hasn’t had a good week. Oil is up. That’s of course involving the war. But there is some sign of affirming kind of picture out there other than just one US jobs report.

Katie Martin
One of the things, though, that is really tricky to get your head around with the US is if you look at PMI surveys, right? So like kind of purchasing managers’ index surveys like where basically you go to like people who actually do real things for real companies for a living and say, how cheerful do you feel about the future?

Robert Armstrong
Do you have more orders this month than you had last month? What are your inventories? Stuff like this, yeah.

Katie Martin
Exactly. So if you look at like manufacturing PMIs are like (blows a raspberry).

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Robert Armstrong
Yeah, terrible.

Katie Martin
Like, nasty; tells us like contraction is coming. It’s really horrible. Whereas services PMIs are like, woohoo, party time, you know. So we’ve got like services PMIs at like 55, manufacturing at 47.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. And for our listeners, 50 means things are the same. Anything above 50, things are getting better. Anything below 50 means business is getting worse.

Katie Martin
It’s a little kind of arbitrary.

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Robert Armstrong
So why is manufacturing getting worse? It does seem weird. Ever since the pandemic, we’ve had weird changes in goods demand, right? Because for a while, we were all locked in the house and we ordered so many goods — so many Pelotons, so many air fryers, so many, you know, because what could you do?

Katie Martin
I never got into this air fryer thing but tell me I should.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. I don’t even know what it is. Yeah. People have them. You can’t fry with air, you know. It’s stupid. Anyway.

Katie Martin
This is a hill I’m prepared to die on.

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Robert Armstrong
(Laughter) Anyway, and then it’s like, now you have all the stuff you need, right? So then, you know, you had too much goods demand and then not enough. And so I wonder if we’re still dealing with kind of waves of too high and then too low goods demand that is affecting manufacturers.

Katie Martin
So we’ve like bricked ourselves into our own homes with Pelotons and air fryers and other such nonsense.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. And we’re still in the like, now let’s go do the things we couldn’t do phase four years later, like, you know. And also like maybe it’s just the United States is ever becoming more a service-driven economy. I mean, that’s the most obvious explanation.

Katie Martin
Yeah. It’s all about going out for dinner and going to bars and I don’t know, whatever it is you Americans do with your spare time.

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Robert Armstrong
Yes. Though that’s about it.

Katie Martin
Go and watch American ball sports.

Robert Armstrong
Go to the mall, we go to the bar. OK. Let me throw another weird variable into the equation. If you ask Americans, how’s the economy, which the University of Michigan has done every month since the 1950s, Americans say it’s crap, which is partly weird and partly not. So if you look at the history of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and you superimpose over it inflation, inflation really makes people feel bad about the economy. And although inflation is gone in terms of price growth, we’ve had a big shift in the price level. Everybody’s pissed off. That’s normal. But in the past, when sentiment has been as bad as it is right now, we have not only had inflation, but we’ve had stagflation. We’ve had inflation tied closely or loosely to, you know, recession and job losses. And right now we have the opposite. So it’s like we don’t care. We’re so pissed off about inflation. We don’t care about how strong growth is or how many people are employed. We’re still pissed off, right?

Katie Martin
But even though people are like pissed off about inflation, which I get, the evidence is that Americans are still spending, right? Household consumption is like back to pre-Covid trends for the US where it’s not in the UK . . . 

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Robert Armstrong
100 per cent. Saw it at the mall.

Katie Martin
It’s not in the UK. It’s not in Europe. So I just don’t understand what is with this like weird thing with Americans at the moment where they’re like, everything’s going great, the economy is absolutely like roaring and people are determined to be cross about it.

Robert Armstrong
They’re cross but, you know, when we are feeling bad as Americans, you know, we go shopping to console ourselves. I think that’s as simple as that. Like, you know, if a humongous flat screen TV isn’t gonna make you feel better, you know what is? But no, I mean, I joke and this is a cliché, Americans are just consumers, blah, blah, blah. But it is striking that Americans are shopping like they are happy or consuming like they are happy. But when asked whether they’re happy, they say no. And of course, this will be important in the upcoming election.

Katie Martin
Are you happy, Rob? We want you to be happy.

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Robert Armstrong
I’ve never been happier. I’m feeling great. I feel great.

Katie Martin
(Laughter) But so what are markets supposed to do with all that? So since we had those like super soaraway jobs numbers a few days ago, some of those rate cut expectations have come off a little bit so the market is saying, OK, maybe we don’t need quite so many rate cuts because maybe we should cheer the heck up.

Robert Armstrong
And actually, there has been a big change in the two-year Treasury yield. And as you know, Katie, but our listeners may not, any time you say the phrase two-year Treasury yield, you have to append the phrase “Fed policy-sensitive” to your yield.

Katie Martin
Policy-sensitive two-year.

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Robert Armstrong
Yeah. Then it just comes as one phrase. So, you know, the two-year yield tells you what the market is thinking about what Fed policy is gonna be. And the two-year yield has gone way up. Last time I looked, it was a hair under four. It had been at like three-six or three-five. And so what that’s telling you is people saw this jobs report and they were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, we may not get all these rate cuts we thought we were gonna get, right? Maybe the Fed doesn’t have that much room to cut because if they cut much more than they already have after they went and did 50 last month, 50 basis points, they’re gonna get an inflation surprise, right? So they’re gonna find out. They’re like, oh yeah, we’re going back to three or whatever they predict is the long-term rate. They might not get all the way down to three. Something bad might happen on the way, specifically a bad inflation thing.

Katie Martin
So we’ve got a situation where stocks are doing well because rates are gonna fall, but rates probably aren’t gonna fall quite so much.

Robert Armstrong
Yes. That’s what the two-year is telling you.

Katie Martin
So, I mean, I can’t square the circle. I really can’t. Someone’s wrong somewhere. It’s probably me.

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Robert Armstrong
No, someone is wrong. Probably us, someone on the internet. Someone somewhere is wrong. I mean, the thing that is unsettling about this is that stocks are just sort of bouncing along at all-time highs. And you sort of wonder if we were wrong to expect as many rate cuts as we did. If we are wrong to think that inflation was gonna come down as easily as we thought it was, surely something about the valuation of stocks has to change. But every time I say sentences like the one I just said, stocks laugh in my face and proceed to go higher. So because you would that . . . 

Katie Martin
I’m not sure we’re helping people much here, Rob. (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
And I think part of it is, you know, we’re starting earnings season, Katie, so we’re gonna find out. We have the banks this week. We’re gonna start finding out whether stocks can perform well enough in terms of earnings that the stock market can stay high.

Katie Martin
Show me the money, corporate America. That’s what I say. I mean, is this . . . How normal is it for consumer sentiment to just like split away so much from actual spending?

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Robert Armstrong
Let’s talk about it in terms of unemployment, which is kind of a tidier number than consumer spending. If you look at a long-term chart of consumer sentiment against the unemployment rate, the lines go generally, historically in the opposite directions. Low unemployment, high consumer sentiment.

Katie Martin
That makes sense.

Robert Armstrong
Right? And that is a pretty consistent pattern through history, as you might expect. The first step to being happy in a capitalist economy is having a job. Since the pandemic, almost uniquely right now, we’re experiencing a moment where we have historically low unemployment and sentiment is still lousy. It’s new. And I don’t know. Maybe that’s normal five years after a big pandemic. Maybe we’re still getting over the sting of inflation and things will normalise soon. But this combination of a very low unemployment rate and . . . I should say that consumer sentiment is getting better. It’s not as bad as it was in 2022 when it was like the worst it’s ever been. But it’s still quite low and it’s not trending better very quickly. This is a strange combination historically, and I’m not sure what to make of it. I have no tidy explanation for it.

Katie Martin
You have to come up with one. You know, that’s your homework for next week.

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Robert Armstrong
OK, next week I’ll have a grand unified theory of consumer sentiment and unemployment prepared for you.

Katie Martin
I look forward to that. You can start thinking about that now. We’re gonna be back in a sec. But first, while we’ve got you, listeners. We’re very excited to have been nominated for a Signal award. Rob Armstrong, did you hear that?

Robert Armstrong
I am delighted but not surprised. I think we deserve to get a pile of awards that’s 10ft tall.

Katie Martin
Well, look, if this is your favourite finance pod — listeners, I’m sure it is — then there’s a link in the show notes. Check it out. Click the button. Vote for us. We’d be very grateful.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

We’re gonna be back in a sec with Long/Short.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Katie Martin
Okey-doke. It is time for Long/Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love, short a thing we hate. Rob, what you got — long or short?

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Robert Armstrong
I am short Spirit Halloween. Now you, Katie, as a person from a strange island in the middle of the North Atlantic will not know what Spirit Halloween is. But Americans will know. Spirit Halloween is a store that shows up only at this time of year. If you need your affordable pizza rat costume, New Yorkers will know what that one is. You can grab it at Spirit Halloween.

And I’m not short this business. I have no idea whether it’s a good business or a bad business, how much money it makes. But I am short any place this spooky store shows up. Because if there is a space in your neighbourhood for a Spirit Halloween, it means there is vacant stores and the rent is cheap and you know, at the last minute Spirit Halloween can just rock up and say, I’d like your building for a month or whatever.

So the weird thing is, this spooky store actually is an economically spooky event when it appears. So the big spooky Grim Reaper motto guy who’s on the sign in front is actually an economic Grim Reaper in reality.

Katie Martin
On a similar note, I am long monsters.

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Robert Armstrong
Great!

Katie Martin
So as you mentioned earlier, Chinese stocks had a bit of . . . They’ve had a bad day because like the second round of information coming out of like authorities in Beijing around what the stimulus . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yes. The previous announcement in which we said we were going to save the world was not true.

Katie Martin
Yeah. Well, so the markets initially went crazy like that, just felt like stocks absolutely shot higher. Today we were supposed to get like more information around what the authorities were gonna do. Markets didn’t particularly like the look of that. It wasn’t detailed enough. So like some of the stocks in like China and Hong Kong fell really hard. The reason I bring up monsters is because we had a quote in our story about this from one Alicia García-Herrero from Natixis who said, and I quote, “This is what happens when you feed the monster. Every day you need to increase the amount of food or it turns against you”. And I thought that was quite apt. So I’m long monsters.

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Robert Armstrong
I have twin 16-year-olds and I endorse that phrase.

Katie Martin
(Laughter) The thing with children is you need to feed them.

Robert Armstrong
Constantly. Every time it’s more, you know.

Katie Martin
Yeah. They’re a real drain. Anyway, on that on that cheerful note, let’s wrap up. We, listeners, will be back in your feed on Thursday because it’s Tuesday today, yes? So it’ll be Thursday. So listen up then . . .

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

Robert Armstrong
Yes. By which time the economic narrative will have changed completely. So we’ll have plenty to talk about.

Katie Martin
Either Rob will have figured it out or it will all have changed again and then we don’t need to bother. So for that sort of insight and more, tune in again on Thursday. We’ll see you then.

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Special thanks to Laura Clarke, Alastair Mackie, Gretta Cohn and Natalie Sadler.

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FT premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30-day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

I’m Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Flights between UK and Florida cancelled as Hurricane Milton intensifies

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A satellite image shows Hurricane Milton progressing before its expected landfall in Florida, in the Gulf of Mexico October 8, 2024. CIRA/NOAA/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.

Dozens of flights between the UK and Florida have been cancelled or delayed as Hurricane Milton threatens the US state’s battered Gulf Coast.

The enormous category five storm is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

It has already caused massive traffic jams and fuel shortages as officials ordered more than one million people to flee before it slams into the Tampa Bay area, threatening a stretch of the densely populated west coast still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said there was an increasing risk of a life-threatening storm surge on the west coast, and heavy rainfall and high winds are expected to impact large parts of Florida.

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Orlando International Airport said it would cease commercial passenger operations at 8am on Wednesday. It added that commercial flights would “resume as soon as possible based on damage assessment”.

Tui said it expected its flying programme “to be extremely disrupted”, with Melbourne Orlando International Airport closing to commercial flights at 2pm on Wednesday and reopening at 9am on Friday.

The travel company said it had cancelled a flight to Melbourne Orlando from Gatwick on Wednesday and was “contacting customers directly to discuss their options”.

Virgin Atlantic also cancelled numerous flights because of “adverse weather conditions expected to be caused by Hurricane Milton”, with a state of emergency declared in Florida.

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The airline cancelled two flights on Tuesday between Heathrow and Tampa, and nine on Wednesday, including ones between Manchester and Orlando.

A further 10 flights have been called off on Thursday, involving Heathrow, Manchester, Orlando and Tampa.

Two flights from Edinburgh to Orlando have been delayed by 23 hours, one on Wednesday and one on Thursday.

Virgin Atlantic said: “The safety and comfort of our customers and crew is our top priority and we are contacting any Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Atlantic Holiday customers who may be impacted by the hurricane to discuss their options.”

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A drone view shows commuters driving east from the west coast ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton (Photo: Marco Bello/Reuters)
Members of the Florida Army National Guard walk past a home slated for demolition after being damaged in Hurricane Helene, as they check for any remaining residents, ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor warned people against riding out the storm, calling Helene a mere wakeup call.

“If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re going to die,” she said.

Aside from airlines, energy firms and a Universal Studios theme park also began to halt their Florida operations as they braced for disruptions.

About 2.8% of US gross domestic product is in the direct path of Milton, Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Tuesday.

So far 5,000 National Guard members have been deployed, with another 3,000 on hand for the storm’s aftermath, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said.

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Relief efforts are still under way in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 200 people across six states and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Writing on a Home Depot before the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in Orlando, Florida (Photo: Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)

US President Joe Biden, who postponed an overseas trip to supervise the storm response, urged those under evacuation orders to leave immediately, saying it was a matter of life and death.

The FCDO said travellers should monitor approaching storms on the US National Hurricane Centre website and follow instructions from local authorities, including evacuation orders.

It added that travellers should check with their airline or travel agent about possible disruption to flights or airport services.

An FCDO spokesperson said: “We are closely monitoring the development of Hurricane Milton towards the United States.

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“We urge all British nationals in Florida or travelling to the region to follow travel advice and guidance from local authorities.”

With agencies

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Extraterritorial regulation is EU’s looming contagion

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In her guest column “America must act to avoid Eurosclerosis” (Opinion, October 4) Suzanne Clark, the president and chief executive of the US Chamber of Commerce, implores US policymakers to heed the warnings coming from Europe and consider the adverse impact that overregulation can have on America’s economic growth and competitiveness.

In that regard, there is a looming contagion that must also be addressed — extraterritorial regulation — which will lead to unintended and adverse consequences.

On September 26, in a bicameral US congressional effort, a letter signed by more than 60 Republican members of Congress urged Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to seek a delay of the implementation of the EU rule, known as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).

This will place substantial legal obligations on US multinationals operating in the EU by converting various UN provisions and other international human rights and environmental, climate and labour law conventions into binding law.

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Thus, for many US multinationals doing business in the EU, CSDDD as constituted will require a range of compliance to include reporting across not only their EU operations, but also their global operations, as well as all the companies in their supply chains.

The strategic implications of this directive driven by extraterritorial regulation is profound. Faced with this directive and others, multinationals will incur the burden of adhering to multiple overlapping directives and laws across global jurisdictions. The directives will expose these companies to increased worldwide legal liability risks, as they become accountable not only for their own practices, but also for those of their suppliers and business partners across the world.

As multinationals and their global suppliers work to meet a wide range of regulatory requirements, the risk of operational disruptions and delays will increase. At worst, investment will be stalled along with capital formation, with unintended and negative consequences for economic growth and competitiveness.

Every effort must be made to avoid the unnecessary regulatory reach and unintended consequences of extraterritorial provisions.

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This can be done while still supporting the inherent sustainability and human rights goals that the directives seek to achieve, but which can only be attained if supported by growing economies and strong alliances.

Mike Roman
Senior Fellow, American Council for Capital Formation, Washington, DC, US

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