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Ethereum Price Rebounds 23%, But $1,000 Risk Still Looms

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Breakdown Target Hit

Ethereum price hit its projected breakdown target near $1,800 in early February. It even slipped to $1,740 before bouncing. Since then, ETH has rebounded almost 23%, giving traders hope that the worst may be over.

But price rebounds inside downtrends often look strong at first. The real question is whether this bounce is supported by strong buyers. Right now, charts, on-chain data, and technical metrics suggest that support remains weak. Several warning signs still point to downside risk.

The ETH Price Breakdown Worked, But the Rebound Lacks Real Strength

On February 5, Ethereum completed a major breakdown pattern on the daily chart, as predicted by BeInCrypto analysts. This pattern usually signals that sellers are taking control. The projected target was near $1,800. Ethereum price followed that path and dropped to $1,740 on February 6.

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After hitting this zone, ETH rebounded about 23%. At first glance, this looks like strong dip buying as the February 6 price candle saw a large lower wick. But momentum tells a different story.

Between February 2 and February 8, the price made lower highs. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks short-term momentum, moved higher.

Breakdown Target Hit
Breakdown Target Hit: TradingView

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence, where momentum improves but price fails to follow.

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In simple terms, price is struggling to rise, even though short-term momentum looks better. That usually means sellers are still active in the background. So while the breakdown target was reached, the rebound does not yet show deep conviction.

This weak follow-through sets the stage for the next risk.

Short-Term Bounce Is Slipping Into Another Bearish Setup

Because the rebound lacks strong follow-through, the next thing to watch is the structure of the move. On the 12-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a bearish pole and flag.

First, the price dropped sharply. Then it rebounded inside a rising channel. This is a classic continuation pattern in downtrends.

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It often leads to another leg lower as volume confirms the risk. On-Balance Volume, which tracks real buying and selling activity, is staying weak. It is not rising aggressively, like the price. This means fewer real buyers are supporting the rebound. Additionally, the OBV metric itself is close to breaking down its own ascending trendline. If volume breaks down, this flag structure could fail.

Bearish ETH Price Pattern
Bearish ETH Price Pattern: TradingView

That would open the door to deeper losses, around 50% from the lower trendline levels. To understand whether buyers, who led the 23% rebound, can prevent that, we need to look on-chain.

Are Short-Term Traders Buying As Long-Term Holders Sell?

On-chain data shows that the recent rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders, not long-term investors.

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A key metric here is short-term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers are sitting in profit or loss.

In early February, as Ethereum dropped to $1,740, short-term holder NUPL fell to around -0.72, placing it firmly in the capitulation zone. This reflected heavy unrealized losses among recent buyers.

During the 23% rebound, however, NUPL recovered to about -0.47. That is an improvement of roughly 35% from the bottom. While it remains negative, the speed of this recovery shows that many short-term traders rushed in to buy the dip.

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This pattern closely resembles past failed bottom formations.

STH NUPL
STH NUPL: Glassnode

On March 10, 2025, NUPL also rebounded to around -0.45 while ETH traded near $1,865. At that time, many traders believed a bottom had formed. A more durable bottom only appeared on April 8, 2025, when NUPL dropped close to -0.80, roughly 75% deeper than the March level. That phase marked true seller exhaustion and preceded a sustained recovery. The price was around $1,470 at the time.

Today’s structure looks much closer to March 2025 than April 2025. Losses have eased too early, suggesting that panic has not fully cleared. At the same time, long-term holders remain cautious.

The 30-day rolling Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks investors holding ETH for more than 155 days, remains negative. On February 4, outflows stood near -10,681 ETH. By February 8, they had widened to around -19,399 ETH.

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ETH HODLers
ETH HODLers: Glassnode

This represents an increase in net selling of roughly 82% in just four days. This signals weak conviction at current levels. So the rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders chasing a bounce, while long-term investors continue reducing exposure.

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Key Ethereum Price Levels Show Why the $1,000 Risk Is Still Alive

All technical and on-chain signals now point to a weak structure. Ethereum must reclaim key resistance to stay safe. The first resistance is near $2,150.

Holding above this would ease short-term pressure. The major invalidation level is $2,780.

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Only above this would the bearish structure truly break. On the downside, risk remains heavy.

Key support levels are:

  • $1,990: short-term support
  • $1,750: Fibonacci support
  • $1,510: major retracement zone (close to the April 8, 2025 bottom)
  • $1,000: bear flag projection
Ethereum Price Analysis
\Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

A daily close below $1,990 would weaken the rebound. Losing $1,750 would expose the $1,500 ETH price zone. If the bearish flag fully breaks, the projected move points toward $1,000.

That would mean a drop of nearly 50% from current levels. Right now, Ethereum is still below major resistance.

Volume is weak. Long-term holders are selling. And Short-term traders dominate activity. Until these conditions change, the risk of a much deeper Ethereum price move remains real.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1450. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 160.50 and might decline further below 158.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

· The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1600 before finding support.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 160.45.

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· There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1640. The Euro declined below 1.1600 and 1.1520 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1445 zone. A low was formed at 1.1443, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1639 swing high to the 1.1443 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement and 1.1575. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1640.

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If not, the pair might drop again. Immediate support is near 1.1520. The next key area of interest might be 1.1480 or the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 1.1480, the pair could drop toward 1.1445. The main target for the bears on the EUR/USD chart could be 1.1400, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 160.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 159.50 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 159.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 158.44, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the downside, the first major support is near 158.45.

The next key region for the bulls might be 158.00. If there is a close below 158.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 156.80. Any more losses might send the pair toward 155.00.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.44 low at 158.90.

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If there is a close above 158.90 and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 159.20. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20. The next major barrier for the bulls could be near the 50% Fib retracement level at 159.45, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.