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Transcript: Markets send mixed signals

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This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Markets send mixed signals

Katie Martin
US markets are a little bit weird at the moment. Rates markets are telling us that investors think the Federal Reserve will cut maybe six or seven more times in the next year, which generally means bad stuff is coming our way.

But stocks are still flying pretty high, even despite a flare up in geopolitical heat. Meanwhile, the latest jobs data from the US tells us that the economy is smoking hot. Today on the show we’re asking, what is with all the mixed signals and what are we supposed to make of it?

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I’m Kate Martin, a markets columnist here at FT towers in rainy London. I’m expecting a decent soaking on my way home tonight on my bike. And hooray, Rob Armstrong off of the Unhedged newsletter is back by dope demand. He’s been doing some real shoe-leather reporting, as we journalists like to say, taking the pulse of the US economy. Rob, did you find a pulse?

Robert Armstrong
Shoe-leather reporting may flatter me a little bit. What I did is I went to a humongous mall in Pennsylvania and kind of looked around and talked to people and looked in stores and generally thought about things. It was more like I went on a trip to contemplate the US economy rather than actually doing any hardcore reporting.

Katie Martin
What’s your best anecdote from your time on the road talking to real America?

Robert Armstrong
That is a good question. Well, I’ll tell you this. I’ll pose a puzzle to you. So I went to this huge mall and all the stores in the mall opened at about 10 in the morning. And I was like just walking up and down this humongous mall. It’s like a mile long, there’s 450 stores. I didn’t see anybody do a transaction until like 11.45. So why did they open all the stores at 10? We put that as a puzzle to you. Is it because, well, the employees have to be there to fiddle the stock around anyway or do something? They might as well open the door in case there should be a customer. But nobody goes to the mall at 10. Why are the stores open at 10? You know, it’s a weird thing.

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Katie Martin
But not every day can be like Black Friday.

Robert Armstrong
It’s true. Not every day. This was on a random Thursday, but I was quite struck by that. But man, Americans will shop. That place by two in the afternoon, the place was jumping. People were buying stuff. The American consumer, as judging by the King of Prussia mall in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, is just fine, thanks very much.

Katie Martin
Never underestimate the American consumer.

Robert Armstrong
Never.

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Katie Martin
Now then, let’s start at kind of the beginning. Is the US overheating? Because there was some scorching jobs numbers we had on Friday.

Robert Armstrong
No, it’s not overheating. I mean, the great motto of the Unhedged newsletter, there’s two mottos. One motto is calm down. And the second motto is one month is just one month. So we had like three months of very . . . 

Katie Martin
OMIJOM.

Robert Armstrong
OMIJOM. That’s how we say it. OMIJOM. You know, we had three months of pretty middling job numbers. And then we did get a pretty jumpin’ report for September. But, you know, there is a lot . . . There’s a big margin for error in these surveys and, you know, as we’ve seen in the last six months or so, these numbers hop around. So until you get three strong months . . . 

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Katie Martin
(Inaudible) look around but, you know, this one was hoppin’, though, right? So the US added . . . 

Robert Armstrong
256,000 jobs or something like that . . . 

Katie Martin
I think it was 254. But anyway, that’s a lot of jobs and the unemployment rate came down to like 4.1. Just edged a little bit lower.

Robert Armstrong
Yup. And, you know, the jobs were spread around the economy — you know, it was leisure and hospitality, it was everything. So, you know, so it was a good report. And, you know, the markets really responded. And the funny thing is, before that report, everybody is like, well, there’s a secret slowdown in the economy that’s coming and what could even be a recession or whatever. There’s cracks in the edifice or, you know, a metaphor of your choice. And then we get this one report and it’s like it’s overheating. Inflation’s coming back, you know? And so it’s like we’re all over the road in terms of sentiment here.

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Katie Martin
We are all over the road. And like, the thing is, though, it is quite a weird situation where you’ve got jobs numbers absolutely blasting through expectations. And it’s worth noting that July and August got revised up somewhat as well like straight after the Fed just cut benchmark interest rates by half a percentage point. And it’s like something is not right with this picture. But it also in terms of the market reaction that you just mentioned, like this is what investors are constantly saying to me, which is that the Fed is data-dependent, right? It doesn’t really have a plan. It’s responding to data points as and when they come in, which means that the market has to respond to data points as and when they come in.

Robert Armstrong
As and when they come in.

Katie Martin
Which means we’re all just getting like pinged around all over the place on every data release. And it’s exhausting, frankly.

Robert Armstrong
Yes, it is exhausting. But I think it’s the best you can do, right? What else is the Fed supposed to do except respond to the information that it has in front of it, right? I mean, I want them to take a slightly longer-term view and look at the average of several reports rather than making the mistake of getting too excited about one month. Being data-dependent is quite jarring at times, quite volatile at times. But the other option is just being an idiot, which is not as good, you know, so . . . (Laughter)

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Katie Martin
Works for you.

Robert Armstrong
(Laughter) Well, I’ve done a lot of field research on being an idiot . . . 

Katie Martin
(Laughter) Some real shoe-leather reporting.

Robert Armstrong
And it’s been mixed outcomes so far, Katie. Let me just say there are . . . 

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Katie Martin
(Inaudible) as you say. Yeah, go on.

Robert Armstrong
There are a couple of other things. No, I’m interrupting you, Katie. Don’t interrupt me while I’m interrupting you.

Katie Martin
No, go on, then. Go on.

Robert Armstrong
There are a couple of other things that are suggestive that the economy in the US and the world might be heading for faster growth. Not to say overheating, but let’s say faster growth. One thing is, at least until today, there was the first spark of excitement about the Chinese economy that we’ve had in a long time because the government said we are going to do things to make things better. And the stock market went bananas, which like affirmed this signal that maybe the Chinese government will do fiscal stimulus or something that will start this economy. So that got people excited.

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And the commodities markets have followed. Copper has had a decent month though it hasn’t had a good week. Oil is up. That’s of course involving the war. But there is some sign of affirming kind of picture out there other than just one US jobs report.

Katie Martin
One of the things, though, that is really tricky to get your head around with the US is if you look at PMI surveys, right? So like kind of purchasing managers’ index surveys like where basically you go to like people who actually do real things for real companies for a living and say, how cheerful do you feel about the future?

Robert Armstrong
Do you have more orders this month than you had last month? What are your inventories? Stuff like this, yeah.

Katie Martin
Exactly. So if you look at like manufacturing PMIs are like (blows a raspberry).

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Robert Armstrong
Yeah, terrible.

Katie Martin
Like, nasty; tells us like contraction is coming. It’s really horrible. Whereas services PMIs are like, woohoo, party time, you know. So we’ve got like services PMIs at like 55, manufacturing at 47.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. And for our listeners, 50 means things are the same. Anything above 50, things are getting better. Anything below 50 means business is getting worse.

Katie Martin
It’s a little kind of arbitrary.

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Robert Armstrong
So why is manufacturing getting worse? It does seem weird. Ever since the pandemic, we’ve had weird changes in goods demand, right? Because for a while, we were all locked in the house and we ordered so many goods — so many Pelotons, so many air fryers, so many, you know, because what could you do?

Katie Martin
I never got into this air fryer thing but tell me I should.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. I don’t even know what it is. Yeah. People have them. You can’t fry with air, you know. It’s stupid. Anyway.

Katie Martin
This is a hill I’m prepared to die on.

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Robert Armstrong
(Laughter) Anyway, and then it’s like, now you have all the stuff you need, right? So then, you know, you had too much goods demand and then not enough. And so I wonder if we’re still dealing with kind of waves of too high and then too low goods demand that is affecting manufacturers.

Katie Martin
So we’ve like bricked ourselves into our own homes with Pelotons and air fryers and other such nonsense.

Robert Armstrong
Yeah. And we’re still in the like, now let’s go do the things we couldn’t do phase four years later, like, you know. And also like maybe it’s just the United States is ever becoming more a service-driven economy. I mean, that’s the most obvious explanation.

Katie Martin
Yeah. It’s all about going out for dinner and going to bars and I don’t know, whatever it is you Americans do with your spare time.

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Robert Armstrong
Yes. Though that’s about it.

Katie Martin
Go and watch American ball sports.

Robert Armstrong
Go to the mall, we go to the bar. OK. Let me throw another weird variable into the equation. If you ask Americans, how’s the economy, which the University of Michigan has done every month since the 1950s, Americans say it’s crap, which is partly weird and partly not. So if you look at the history of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and you superimpose over it inflation, inflation really makes people feel bad about the economy. And although inflation is gone in terms of price growth, we’ve had a big shift in the price level. Everybody’s pissed off. That’s normal. But in the past, when sentiment has been as bad as it is right now, we have not only had inflation, but we’ve had stagflation. We’ve had inflation tied closely or loosely to, you know, recession and job losses. And right now we have the opposite. So it’s like we don’t care. We’re so pissed off about inflation. We don’t care about how strong growth is or how many people are employed. We’re still pissed off, right?

Katie Martin
But even though people are like pissed off about inflation, which I get, the evidence is that Americans are still spending, right? Household consumption is like back to pre-Covid trends for the US where it’s not in the UK . . . 

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Robert Armstrong
100 per cent. Saw it at the mall.

Katie Martin
It’s not in the UK. It’s not in Europe. So I just don’t understand what is with this like weird thing with Americans at the moment where they’re like, everything’s going great, the economy is absolutely like roaring and people are determined to be cross about it.

Robert Armstrong
They’re cross but, you know, when we are feeling bad as Americans, you know, we go shopping to console ourselves. I think that’s as simple as that. Like, you know, if a humongous flat screen TV isn’t gonna make you feel better, you know what is? But no, I mean, I joke and this is a cliché, Americans are just consumers, blah, blah, blah. But it is striking that Americans are shopping like they are happy or consuming like they are happy. But when asked whether they’re happy, they say no. And of course, this will be important in the upcoming election.

Katie Martin
Are you happy, Rob? We want you to be happy.

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Robert Armstrong
I’ve never been happier. I’m feeling great. I feel great.

Katie Martin
(Laughter) But so what are markets supposed to do with all that? So since we had those like super soaraway jobs numbers a few days ago, some of those rate cut expectations have come off a little bit so the market is saying, OK, maybe we don’t need quite so many rate cuts because maybe we should cheer the heck up.

Robert Armstrong
And actually, there has been a big change in the two-year Treasury yield. And as you know, Katie, but our listeners may not, any time you say the phrase two-year Treasury yield, you have to append the phrase “Fed policy-sensitive” to your yield.

Katie Martin
Policy-sensitive two-year.

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Robert Armstrong
Yeah. Then it just comes as one phrase. So, you know, the two-year yield tells you what the market is thinking about what Fed policy is gonna be. And the two-year yield has gone way up. Last time I looked, it was a hair under four. It had been at like three-six or three-five. And so what that’s telling you is people saw this jobs report and they were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, we may not get all these rate cuts we thought we were gonna get, right? Maybe the Fed doesn’t have that much room to cut because if they cut much more than they already have after they went and did 50 last month, 50 basis points, they’re gonna get an inflation surprise, right? So they’re gonna find out. They’re like, oh yeah, we’re going back to three or whatever they predict is the long-term rate. They might not get all the way down to three. Something bad might happen on the way, specifically a bad inflation thing.

Katie Martin
So we’ve got a situation where stocks are doing well because rates are gonna fall, but rates probably aren’t gonna fall quite so much.

Robert Armstrong
Yes. That’s what the two-year is telling you.

Katie Martin
So, I mean, I can’t square the circle. I really can’t. Someone’s wrong somewhere. It’s probably me.

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Robert Armstrong
No, someone is wrong. Probably us, someone on the internet. Someone somewhere is wrong. I mean, the thing that is unsettling about this is that stocks are just sort of bouncing along at all-time highs. And you sort of wonder if we were wrong to expect as many rate cuts as we did. If we are wrong to think that inflation was gonna come down as easily as we thought it was, surely something about the valuation of stocks has to change. But every time I say sentences like the one I just said, stocks laugh in my face and proceed to go higher. So because you would that . . . 

Katie Martin
I’m not sure we’re helping people much here, Rob. (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
And I think part of it is, you know, we’re starting earnings season, Katie, so we’re gonna find out. We have the banks this week. We’re gonna start finding out whether stocks can perform well enough in terms of earnings that the stock market can stay high.

Katie Martin
Show me the money, corporate America. That’s what I say. I mean, is this . . . How normal is it for consumer sentiment to just like split away so much from actual spending?

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Robert Armstrong
Let’s talk about it in terms of unemployment, which is kind of a tidier number than consumer spending. If you look at a long-term chart of consumer sentiment against the unemployment rate, the lines go generally, historically in the opposite directions. Low unemployment, high consumer sentiment.

Katie Martin
That makes sense.

Robert Armstrong
Right? And that is a pretty consistent pattern through history, as you might expect. The first step to being happy in a capitalist economy is having a job. Since the pandemic, almost uniquely right now, we’re experiencing a moment where we have historically low unemployment and sentiment is still lousy. It’s new. And I don’t know. Maybe that’s normal five years after a big pandemic. Maybe we’re still getting over the sting of inflation and things will normalise soon. But this combination of a very low unemployment rate and . . . I should say that consumer sentiment is getting better. It’s not as bad as it was in 2022 when it was like the worst it’s ever been. But it’s still quite low and it’s not trending better very quickly. This is a strange combination historically, and I’m not sure what to make of it. I have no tidy explanation for it.

Katie Martin
You have to come up with one. You know, that’s your homework for next week.

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Robert Armstrong
OK, next week I’ll have a grand unified theory of consumer sentiment and unemployment prepared for you.

Katie Martin
I look forward to that. You can start thinking about that now. We’re gonna be back in a sec. But first, while we’ve got you, listeners. We’re very excited to have been nominated for a Signal award. Rob Armstrong, did you hear that?

Robert Armstrong
I am delighted but not surprised. I think we deserve to get a pile of awards that’s 10ft tall.

Katie Martin
Well, look, if this is your favourite finance pod — listeners, I’m sure it is — then there’s a link in the show notes. Check it out. Click the button. Vote for us. We’d be very grateful.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

We’re gonna be back in a sec with Long/Short.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Katie Martin
Okey-doke. It is time for Long/Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love, short a thing we hate. Rob, what you got — long or short?

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Robert Armstrong
I am short Spirit Halloween. Now you, Katie, as a person from a strange island in the middle of the North Atlantic will not know what Spirit Halloween is. But Americans will know. Spirit Halloween is a store that shows up only at this time of year. If you need your affordable pizza rat costume, New Yorkers will know what that one is. You can grab it at Spirit Halloween.

And I’m not short this business. I have no idea whether it’s a good business or a bad business, how much money it makes. But I am short any place this spooky store shows up. Because if there is a space in your neighbourhood for a Spirit Halloween, it means there is vacant stores and the rent is cheap and you know, at the last minute Spirit Halloween can just rock up and say, I’d like your building for a month or whatever.

So the weird thing is, this spooky store actually is an economically spooky event when it appears. So the big spooky Grim Reaper motto guy who’s on the sign in front is actually an economic Grim Reaper in reality.

Katie Martin
On a similar note, I am long monsters.

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Robert Armstrong
Great!

Katie Martin
So as you mentioned earlier, Chinese stocks had a bit of . . . They’ve had a bad day because like the second round of information coming out of like authorities in Beijing around what the stimulus . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yes. The previous announcement in which we said we were going to save the world was not true.

Katie Martin
Yeah. Well, so the markets initially went crazy like that, just felt like stocks absolutely shot higher. Today we were supposed to get like more information around what the authorities were gonna do. Markets didn’t particularly like the look of that. It wasn’t detailed enough. So like some of the stocks in like China and Hong Kong fell really hard. The reason I bring up monsters is because we had a quote in our story about this from one Alicia García-Herrero from Natixis who said, and I quote, “This is what happens when you feed the monster. Every day you need to increase the amount of food or it turns against you”. And I thought that was quite apt. So I’m long monsters.

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Robert Armstrong
I have twin 16-year-olds and I endorse that phrase.

Katie Martin
(Laughter) The thing with children is you need to feed them.

Robert Armstrong
Constantly. Every time it’s more, you know.

Katie Martin
Yeah. They’re a real drain. Anyway, on that on that cheerful note, let’s wrap up. We, listeners, will be back in your feed on Thursday because it’s Tuesday today, yes? So it’ll be Thursday. So listen up then . . .

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

Robert Armstrong
Yes. By which time the economic narrative will have changed completely. So we’ll have plenty to talk about.

Katie Martin
Either Rob will have figured it out or it will all have changed again and then we don’t need to bother. So for that sort of insight and more, tune in again on Thursday. We’ll see you then.

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Special thanks to Laura Clarke, Alastair Mackie, Gretta Cohn and Natalie Sadler.

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FT premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30-day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

I’m Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Money

A little-known benefit paid out £3,500 when my partner died – it’s not means tested and takes minutes to apply

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A little-known benefit paid out £3,500 when my partner died - it's not means tested and takes minutes to apply

WHEN Isabella Day’s partner Ford unexpectedly died in August, she was forced to navigate running a small business and a household budget alone while grieving.

The 51-year-old goldsmith, from Devon, had worked with Ford Hallam selling hand-made gold jewellery at a store in Dartmouth and through website isabelladay.co.uk for years.

Isabella and her partner Ford worked together as goldsmiths

1

Isabella and her partner Ford worked together as goldsmiths

Ford was also a skilled craftsman and could restore items such as swords, and he was the only non-native artist to have been adopted into Japan’s ancient decorative metalworking tradition.

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He was 61 when he died due to complications arising from an auto immune disease, leaving Isabella stunned and heartbroken.

She told The Sun: “It was a massive shock when he died. We were engaged, due to be married in October but instead of planning a wedding, I had to plan a funeral.”

The pair had lived together as a blended family with Isabella’s two sons 16 and 25 and one of Ford’s sons, 22.

Ford had no life insurance or pension when he died, so the drop in income left Isabella’s finances and business under huge pressure, too.

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Two of their sons are in full-time education and so aren’t able to contribute to the family budget, and this month the 25-year-old has just moved into his own flat.

“I was struggling emotionally and grieving but I was now also solely responsible for the business that I had with Ford,” Isabella said.

“You can’t just scale up a skilled craft business when someone else’s output is no longer there.”

Feeling desperate for help, Isabella went to Citizen’s Advice in September to see if there was any financial support she could access.

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The organisation told her about the Bereavement Support Allowance.

The benefit gives lump sum payments of up to £3,500 after a partner has died, as well as ongoing payments up to £350 for 18 months.

Within days of applying, she received the payment.

Support Fund Boost: Up to £500 Grants for Struggling Households

“I was really surprised to find out about it, but the whole thing has been amazing – it was so easy to apply, I did it in about 20 minutes,” she said.

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“And it was facts that you can manage while you are grieving, I didn’t need to go into the details of the death or anything traumatic.”

The Bereavement Support Allowance is not mean-tested and it’s available even if you are not married to your partner – though you will have had to have been living together.

You will need to be under state pension age and your partner’s National Insurance contributions will need to be up to date for you to qualify.

Isabella added: “I just wish I had known about it sooner. In hospital they give you a booklet when your partner dies, but there was no mention of this benefit.

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“It’s a lot of money and made a significant difference to us.

“I think a lot of women could benefit from knowing about this support, especially small business owners. There needs to be greater awareness of it.”

What is the Bereavement Support Allowance?

If your partner dies when you are under State Pension age you could claim for the Bereavement Support Payment.

The benefit isn’t means-tested so it doesn’t matter what your income is, if you have any savings or if you’re working.

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The benefit is available if you were married, but you can also claim if you and your partner were living together, and you look after a child which you get Child Benefit for.

If you have children under the or you’re pregnant, you can get a lump sum payment of £3,500, as well as monthly payments of £350 for up to 18 months.

If you don’t have children and are married, you can still get support. You’ll be entitled to a lump sum payment of £2,500, plus monthly payments of £100 for up to 18 months.

You’ll be asked for your National Insurance number as well as your partners as part of the application.

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You usually need to make a claim within 21 months of your partner’s death – and in most situations you’ll need to claim within three months of death to get the full amount of payments.

You can apply for the Bereavement Support Payment by filling in a form from the gov website or calling the Bereavement Service helpline on 0800 151 2012.

If you need more help, you can contact Citizens Advice in England on 0800 144 8848. You can also talk online or find your nearest Citizens Advice at citizensadvice.org.uk.

Where to get support for bereavement

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There is lots of help and available if you are experiencing grief after the death of a loved one.

NHS therapy and counselling services – NHS talking therapies services are for people in England aged 18 or over. You can speak to your GP about talking therapies or get in touch with the talking therapies service directly without going to your GP.

At a loss – Find bereavement services and counselling across the UK

Child Bereavement UK – Offers support if you are bereaved after losing a child. Or if you’re a child or young person who is grieving after losing someone.

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The Good Grief Trust – a charity run by bereaved people, helping all those experiencing grief in the UK.

Samaritans – if you’re struggling you can call Samaritans any time on 116 123 to talk about anything. 

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Millennium Hotels & Resorts announces two new properties in the Middle East

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Millennium Hotels & Resorts announces two new properties in the Middle East

Millennium Hotels & Resorts MEA will be opening two new properties in the Middle East: the Studio M Airport Muscat in Oman, and the Millennium Residences Saadiyat Island in Abu Dhabi in the UAE

Continue reading Millennium Hotels & Resorts announces two new properties in the Middle East at Business Traveller.

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Business

Why Europe will not catch up with the US

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This article picked by a teacher with suggested questions is part of the Financial Times free schools access programme. Details/registration here.

Read our full range of US High School economics picks here.

Click to read the article below and then answer the questions:

Why Europe will not catch up with the US

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Discussion Questions

  • How does the US differ from Europe in terms of economic planning and outcomes, according to the author?

  • How does the cultural expectation of the welfare state in Europe impact its ability to compete economically with the US?

  • What role does the European single market play in the continent’s economic performance, and what are some barriers to its effectiveness?

  • How does the demographic difference between the US and Europe contribute to their economic divergence?

  • What natural resource advantages does the US have that Europe lacks, and how do these impact economic performance?

  • How does the entrepreneurial culture in the US differ from Europe, and why is this significant for economic growth?

  • What historical factors might explain why Europe performed better economically in the past compared to its performance since the millennium?

Extended Learning

Watch the video: “Puzzle of Growth: Rich Countries and Poor Countries” (8:32) and answer the following questions.

  • What role does physical and human capital play in making countries richer?

  • How do incentives influence economic productivity, as explained in the example of China during the Great Leap Forward?

  • What are the key institutions that help foster economic growth, and why are they important?

  • Why are private property rights critical for economic growth?

  • Why do economic freedom and capitalism lead to economic prosperity?

Conclusion

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Considering the advantages the US has for economic growth — such as its younger population, natural resources and entrepreneurial culture — why do you think these factors contribute to the US outperforming Europe economically, and could Europe adopt any of these advantages through less restrictive immigration policies? Why or why not?

Joel Miller and James Redelsheimer, Foundation for Economic Education.
Click here for FEE FT Classroom Edition with classroom-ready presentations and suggested answers for teachers.

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Could Italy’s UniCredit reignite European banking?

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This is an audio transcript of the Behind the Money podcast episode: ‘Could Italy’s UniCredit reignite European banking?’

Michela Tindera
Back in the spring, my colleague Owen Walker had a morning of superlatives. It starts by stepping into the elevator of a skyscraper in Milan. He rides up to the top floors of Italy’s tallest building. That’s where he enters the executive level of a bank called UniCredit, which is not only Italy’s second-largest bank. It’s also, at the time, Europe’s best-performing bank. And inside he meets one of Europe’s best-known bankers and dealmakers: UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel.

Owen Walker
Andrea Orcel is a kind of a big, imposing guy. He’s got his jacket off. He’s got his sleeves rolled up. He’s got that big, bright smile. But he’s also known and described often as a kind of a chess player who’s thinking three or four moves in advance.

Michela Tindera
That sort of strategic thinking propelled UniCredit’s share price to more than quadruple in the last few years since Orcel became CEO. And Owen wanted to ask Orcel what his next chess move might be.

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Owen Walker voice clip
Well, maybe if you can start by giving us a description of what you’ve done in your three years.

Andrea Orcel voice clip
OK, so it’s a question I get a lot and I think there are always targets . . . 

Owen Walker
In the entire time he’d been at UniCredit, there’d been constant rumours, constant speculation about what he would do with UniCredit. Would he be looking to buy a rival, would he be looking to merge parts of the business?

Andrea Orcel voice clip
The last few years and the last few months with all these rumours . . . 

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Owen Walker
So he essentially told us that, yes, there’d been a lot of speculation, a lot of rumours about a potential deal, but of course, it had to be on their terms. And he was quite clear on this point.

Andrea Orcel voice clip
The interest is there at the right conditions, and we haven’t found the right condition and we have had the discipline to say no. And we will continue to say no. No matter how much pressure we are under, we will say no.

Michela Tindera
Say no — that is until a few weeks ago.

News clips
UniCredit making an investment in Commerzbank . . .

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The Italian banking giant UniCredit says it’s bought a 9 per cent stake in Germany’s Commerzbank and is seeking approval to buy more . . . 

Owen Walker
These moves by UniCredit have really caused a stir across the European banking sector because UniCredit is one of Europe’s biggest banks. If UniCredit were to pursue a full takeover of Commerzbank, this would be the first big cross-border deal in European banking since the financial crisis.

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Michela Tindera
So Europe’s veteran star banker Andrea Orcel wants to make Italy’s second-largest bank even larger with the help of a German bank. It’s a deal that could take UniCredit to the next level in global banking. But is Europe really ready for this kind of merger?

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I’m Michela Tindera from the Financial Times. Today on Behind the Money, why is UniCredit making this bid for Commerzbank? And how will this shape the future of banking in Europe?

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For a while now, Owen — who covers European banking for the FT — tells me that authorities in the EU have been itching for a big bank merger.

Owen Walker
There is a lot of enthusiasm for European banks to get bigger. For Europe to really compete on a global scale and have banks that can compete on a global scale, it needs to allow its banks to do cross-border deals to grow and take over businesses and banks in different countries, and then to almost create these superbanks across European states, which can really compete then with their US rivals.

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Michela Tindera
There’s this idea that in order to tackle some of the big infrastructure and green technology projects that are needed for the future, the continent needs much bigger banks to finance that stuff.

Owen Walker
And so for European banks to really be able to grow and have the capacity, the lending capacity as the US banks, it’s all about the cross-border deals. You’re not going to be able to get a domestic leader to get on the scale of the US banks and to be able to provide the financing that they can.

Michela Tindera
All this might explain why UniCredit’s potential acquisition of Commerzbank is creating such a stir in European banking. And there’s also this UniCredit CEO, Andre Orcel and his track record when it comes to big banking deals.

Owen Walker
Andrea Orcel was really the superstar investment banker, dealmaker of the early 2000s in Europe. He was at Merrill Lynch. He was primarily dealing with banks, with financial institutions. And in that period, there were a lot of big deals happening in Europe.

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Michela Tindera
That all changed with the financial crisis. Afterwards, banking M&A in Europe became a bit of a dead zone. Too many banks were laden with toxic debt and required government bailouts.

Owen Walker
And really, it’s been a lost decade and a half when they’re looking to comparisons with the US rivals. The US banks, not only do they dominate the US market, they’ve also expanded internationally in Europe, in Asia, across the Middle East and South America. Whereas European banks, they’re often playing really in their domestic market, so therefore they haven’t been able to grow at the same rate as US banks. And you have in Europe a very fragmented market.

Michela Tindera
So the air is ripe for consolidation which brings us to what’s going on with UniCredit and Commerzbank. So Owen, to fully understand what’s going on here, let’s start by retracing UniCredit’s steps so far. Because this hasn’t exactly been a clear-cut, you know, one-and-done takeover attempt of Commerzbank.

Owen Walker
So in mid-September this year, UniCredit caused a sensation across Europe by announcing it had bought a 9 per cent stake in German lender Commerzbank. Now, this seems to come out of nowhere.

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Michela Tindera
Basically, UniCredit buys part of Commerzbank from the German government and another chunk of Commerzbank on the open market. And it ends up with the option to quickly increase its stake in the German lender to 21 per cent. These latest actions are waiting on approval from the European Central Bank at the moment. So things are in a bit of a holding pattern. But shareholders did react enthusiastically to UniCredit’s early moves.

Owen Walker
When UniCredit first announced its initial 9 per cent stake in Commerzbank, the shares in the German lender rose 17 per cent in the hours that followed. Now, interestingly, UniCredit shares also went up, albeit a little bit, which is very rare in this kind of takeover-type scenario. And that really tells you that not only the buyers, but also the sellers and shareholders think this is a positive development. And it probably tells you that they’re thinking, well, look, UniCredit has been very good at returning cash to us in recent years. But we have been expecting this deal and this is the deal that makes most sense. So it has really been pretty well supported by the shareholders on both sides.

Michela Tindera
But that enthusiasm hasn’t been mirrored by Germany’s government.

Owen Walker
The initial response has been very much anti-UniCredit continuing its acquisition of Commerzbank. Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor — he described these as unfriendly attacks, hostile takeovers — said that this wasn’t the sort of thing that the German government would support. They see this as, you know, a foreign bank buying one of their big players. You know, you have to remember that Commerzbank is very important to the German economy. It finances and provides loans for the Mittelstand, which is the small and medium-sized companies in Germany, which really do make up the backbone of its economy. And so there’s a feeling, I think, within the German government and among German politicians that UniCredit coming from Italy and taking over Commerzbank could be bad news in the long run because maybe there could be some overseas or some foreign interference in the way that Commerzbank is run and that may have some impact on its ability to really prop up the key part of the German economy.

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Michela Tindera
But isn’t a cross-border bank merger what European governments have been wanting? You know, there’s been this lull in dealmaking. So why is Germany complaining? Isn’t this a bit hypocritical?

Owen Walker
Yeah, I think hypocrisy is really the word here. That’s certainly the word that’s been used by Italian politicians and also other regulators. At the FT, we’ve written stories about central governors in other countries, members of the European Central Bank really sort of seeing the approach from Germany as being very strange, considering how Germany’s been one of the biggest advocates for bigger European banks for at least the last decade and a half.

I think what this shows and Germany’s reaction to this shows is that you can want to have bigger banks, but ultimately most governments and most politicians want it on their own terms. Of course, they would like their own national champions going out and buying rivals in other countries. But when it comes to their own big banks being bought up, that is the point where politics gets involved and it’s no longer a question of big cross-border European banks. It’s more about self-preservation and self-interest.

Michela Tindera
Yeah, everybody wants this until it comes on to their own turf, and then they want their own bank to be the one making these big acquisitions.

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Owen Walker
Exactly. And that really ultimately is gonna be one of the key problems with big cross-border mergers in the banking sector, because ultimately they will come up against local political resistance.

Michela Tindera
Coming up: how this UniCredit-Commerzbank deal could change the way other bank CEOs are thinking about M&A. And what this deal could mean for Andrea Orcel’s future.

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With so much official opposition to UniCredit’s takeover of Commerzbank, you got to wonder why the Italian bank’s even bothering? It looks far from a done deal after all. So I asked Owen, what’s the logic driving UniCredit’s interest?

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Owen Walker
When people have looked at the potential for cross-border dealmaking in European banks, the most obvious one by far is a tie-up between UniCredit and Commerzbank. And actually, the two sides have been having on-off talks about a merger since at least 2017. Now, what drives the logic of this deal is that UniCredit already owns a very large bank in Germany, a bank it bought in 2005 called HVB. And there’s a very nice fit between Commerzbank and HVB. HVB is very much a regional player, whereas Commerzbank is much more across the whole of the country.

So again, there’s some nice synergies there, which means that were UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, I mean, I think there’s a lot of understanding that what they would look to do is to merge Commerzbank with HVB, create a much bigger player in Germany and really look to dominate the German domestic market.

Michela Tindera
And why now in 2024, as opposed to as you mentioned, there were some talks in 2017 or, you know, what sets the scene today that makes this a possibility versus any other time?

Owen Walker
What we’ve also seen in the last few years is European banks very much return to profitability after years of sluggish growth. This is all on the back of rising interest rates, which are really good for banks to generate profits. UniCredit itself has been one of the most profitable banks in Europe. In fact, it has about €6bn of surplus cash at the minute. So that has really given Orcel a war chest to potentially go out and buy businesses. So all these things really point to very favourable, almost perfect conditions for UniCredit to come in and potentially look for a takeover of Commerzbank.

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Michela Tindera
So where does this potential takeover stand right now with UniCredit and Commerzbank?

Owen Walker
At the moment, we’re really not in a position where this is a full takeover, hostile bid in any shape or form. For this to progress, the ECB needs to give its approval, which really everyone is expecting. It’s just how long that takes. There is a lot of administrative work, a lot of paperwork. If that gets slowed down and, you know, goes from a two-month process to a nine, 12-month process or even longer, could UniCredit and Andrea Orcel lose interest in this, decide that it’s just not worth pursuing? That’s definitely a potential. And the way that this latest holding has been structured would allow UniCredit to pull out at fairly short notice without losing too much money, and actually pursue something else were another more attractive deal or an easier deal were to come up.

Michela Tindera
What does this overture by UniCredit to Commerzbank . . . what do you think that means more broadly for the European banking sector? Do you think that this is giving other ideas to other CEOs? Maybe I should try this. Maybe I shouldn’t.

Owen Walker
Undoubtedly, this move by UniCredit for Commerzbank has got a lot of bank CEOs, bank board members and their advisers dusting off the old playbooks on, you know, their potential M&A targets. However, my thought is that were UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, I don’t see this as really kickstarting, you know, a wave of cross-border dealmaking across Europe. What it might do is prompt other banks in Europe to start thinking more about other deals that could potentially do in these circumstances.

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But that is as much about the change in dynamics of European banks over the past couple of years with the increased profitability, with the rising share prices and the additional capital that banks have these days, which they didn’t have coming out of the financial crisis. And you combine all of those things and yes, deals in European banks seem more likely at this point, but I’m not sure that we should be expecting the huge cross-border deals that have been long hoped for a European level since the financial crisis.

Michela Tindera
Now, I want to circle back to the person who’s leading this charge, Andrea Orcel. So, you know, however this deal goes, what do you think this means for him and his reputation as Europe’s great banking dealmaker?

Owen Walker
Andrea Orcel has played this situation masterfully so far. By that, I mean he’s effectively built up a 21 per cent stake in a rival bank without paying much for premium. He has managed to turn the protestations of the German government into the appearance of hypocrisy and to be able to say, well, if you’re going to stop us buying Commerzbank, then that means you don’t believe in what you’ve been preaching for the past 15 years about the importance of cross-border dealmaking. And he’s also structured a lot of the holding in Commerzbank in a very interesting way, which basically gives him the optionality to move in and move out quite quickly.

So I think we should be thinking about Orcel’s role and reputation here as he won’t do this deal unless he wants to and unless the conditions are right. If he doesn’t do the deal, it will be because A, he’s decided it’s not appropriate for UniCredit to pursue, or B, there’s a better deal elsewhere. So it’s gonna be a fascinating next 12, 18 months to see exactly how this progresses. But I think one thing’s for sure is that when it comes to Andrea Orcel, he gets what he wants. And I think we can be sure that’s gonna happen in this case, too.

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Michela Tindera
Behind the Money is hosted by me, Michela Tindera. Saffeya Ahmed is our producer. Sound design and mixing by Katie McMurran and Joseph Salcedo and Breen Turner. Topher Forhecz and Manuela Saragosa are our executive producers. Special thanks to Dan Stewart and Persis Love. Cheryl Brumley is the global head of audio. Original music is by Hannis Brown. Thanks for listening. See you next week.

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