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Viktor Orbán meets his domestic nemesis in Strasbourg

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Good morning. Today our parliament correspondent previews the Hungary-on-Hungary battle of words in Strasbourg, and our finance correspondent reports on the procedural steps that begin today to take a €35bn loan for Ukraine from idea to reality.

Face-off

Domestic Hungarian politics will take over the European parliament today as a speech by prime minister Viktor Orbán is poised to turn into a rare opportunity for his most potent foe to take him on, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Hungary holds the rotating presidency of the EU, and tradition dictates that the presiding country’s leader addresses the Strasbourg assembly. Péter Magyar, whose Tisza party took several seats from Orban’s Fidesz in June’s European elections, will be among the MEPs speaking in response.

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Orbán has largely plied Hungary’s media and parliament to his will, rarely facing opposition at home. The European parliament, by contrast, frequently denounces him.

“[In his speech] he will present himself as a competent and strong council presidency . . . but he will stay silent about the corruption, the total state capture, his 24-hour propaganda machinery and his authoritarian chokehold on virtually every aspect of the Hungarian society,” said Tineke Strik, Green MEP and rapporteur on the rule of law in Hungary for the European parliament. 

The European Commission last year unblocked €10bn — about a third of EU funds destined for Hungary but frozen over rule of law concerns — causing howls of outrage.

Magyar will focus on domestic issues, hoping to reach some of those watching back home. Aides say he will mention the poor healthcare standards, and charge that Orbán is filling the pockets of cronies rather than financing public services.

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Magyar was once an acolyte of Orbán, but split when his now ex-wife, the former justice minister Judit Varga, was forced to resign over the controversial pardon of a convicted criminal.

Orbán has friends in parliament, too: His Patriots political family has 83 MEPs and is the third-largest group.

They have already targeted Magyar, whose party has joined the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), accusing him of theft. Hungary’s chief prosecutor has charged Magyar for throwing the phone of someone who was filming him at a nightclub into the Danube.

Magyar claims the charges are politically motivated. “This is because our party, Tisza, is polling head-to-head with Fidesz . . . each and every one of their fabricated cases have failed,” Magyar said in a statement.

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Parliament’s legal affairs committee will now assess whether Magyar’s immunity should be lifted over the affair.

Chart du jour: Wet hot

Rising global temperatures helped drive “extreme rainfall events” around the world in September, including deadly floods in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria.

Under pressure

A majority of EU countries is set to approve the bloc’s share of a G7 loan to Ukraine, but US participation is still uncertain, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: Last month, the European Commission proposed to issue a loan of up to €35bn, on the back of future profits arising from immobilised Russian state assets. Contributions from Canada, Japan and the UK would bring the total to about $50bn, the amount agreed by G7 leaders in June.

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But one big country is missing.

The US has made its participation conditional on an extension of EU sanctions, which currently need renewal every 6 months, to three years. “The scale of our participation depends on the strength of EU assurances that the Russia reserves will remain immobilised,” a US official said.

While a wide majority of member states are expected to approve the EU share of the loan today, extending the sanctions regime requires a unanimous decision, and Hungary has said it wants to wait for the result of US elections on November 5.

“We believe this issue should be decided after the US elections. We have to see in which direction the future US administration is going on this issue,” said Hungary’s finance minister Mihály Varga.

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The issue is likely to be discussed by EU leaders next week, who could pile pressure on Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to relinquish his veto on extending EU sanctions — allowing the US to join in after all.

“He’ll have a lot of pressure from member states, from the [European] commission, and hopefully they have a lot of pressure from the US as well,” said an EU diplomat.

The European parliament still needs to approve the loan as well, which is expected later this month.

What to watch today

  1. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán gives a speech at the European parliament in Strasbourg.

  2. Czech and Polish governments hold a joint meeting in Prague.

Now read these

  • Spread your wings: Ukraine is considering lifting a ban on drone exports to boost its industry and generate up to $20bn from sales abroad.

  • European M&A: Dealmaking is back but the risk is no longer that banks are “too big to fail” but “too small to deliver”, writes Carlos Torres Vila.

  • To infinity, and beyond: Despite a failure to meet past expectations, the space-tourism sector still bubbles with enthusiasm. Why?

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Heartbreak leave can help employees recover from shattered relationships

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In recognition of the “negative emotional baggage” that can come after a relationship break-up, Ricardo Dublado, chief executive of Cebu Century Plaza Hotel in the Philippines, last year unveiled an unusual new staff policy: five paid days of heartbreak leave.

The time off, which can be taken annually provided the break-up is with a different person each year, was inspired by Dublado’s own experience. In the Philippines the idea is catching on: a parliamentary bill in February proposed that any worker going through a romantic break-up should be eligible for up to three days of unpaid leave. “Studies reveal the substantial toll break-ups take on individuals, affecting their emotional and mental wellbeing, leading to decreased productivity, absenteeism and higher healthcare costs,” said Congressman Lordan Suan.

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Employers across the world have increasingly sought to make concessions for their workers’ personal lives, offering wellbeing days, flexible work and, in some cases, counselling services.

Some global companies may already encourage heartbreak leave under a different name. In the pandemic, employers introduced time off for wellbeing to differentiate themselves from competitors or give staff a discreet chance to look after their mental health or care for their families. Many continued, including software group Adobe, which offers six wellbeing days a year. Virgin Money gives five.

In the Philippines, Effel Santillan, human resources manager at Harbor Star Shipping Services, said employees suffering from lost love were generally allowed to take time off on a discretionary basis. “At the end of the day, the manager takes responsibility.”

UK employers including Tesco, the supermarket chain, and Metro Bank have targeted break-up support to families, signing up to the Parents Promise, created by Positive Parenting Alliance, an advocacy group. Employers make commitments to help parents who are separating from each other, including giving them a chance to work flexibly and helping them access counselling. In return, they receive support from the alliance.

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Positive Parenting Alliance founder James Hayhurst wants “employers to recognise [separation] as a life event. If you’re going to separate, the employer can help you do it well.”

PwC, a signatory, said that while it did not have a specific divorce policy, working arrangements were designed to support big life events. “Everyone’s situation is unique, so we actively listen to our people to understand their needs,” Anne Hurst, the firm’s inclusion lead, said. “Our goal is to create a supportive environment that helps our people balance their personal and professional lives.”

In one 2023 study by researchers from the University of Minnesota, 44 per cent of respondents said going through divorce had a negative effect on work. People whose marriages ended reported an inability to focus or sleep and a tendency to break down in tears. “Crippling depression is slowing down my ability to socialise with my co-workers and supervisor,” said one.

However, a sizeable minority — 39 per cent — had a different experience, saying divorce was positive, freeing “up time and energy” and providing an opportunity for renewal.

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The study suggested offering some help to people struggling with separation. Flexible scheduling or remote work, it said, may help employees manage “divorce-related appointments and also provide space to work . . . without placing an undue and unnecessary strain on emotional regulatory capacities”.

In the Philippines, meanwhile, Suan’s bill could face a tough hearing. Laws in the country do not guarantee time off for mental health problems on top of a statutory minimum of five days’ leave. The People Management Association of the Philippines, a professional body for human resources, has said that wellness leave is an “additional expense and additional interruption to business operations”.

Another question is whether heartbroken employees would take leave at all. Customer services worker Abigail Marquez, 27, said that in the event of a break-up she would not take advantage of the benefit as proposed in the bill, because it was unpaid. For some workers, protecting their income still takes priority over their heartache — or, as Marquez put it, “no money, no honey”.

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Pinebridge makes reported £565m bid for PRS REIT

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PRS REIT chairman to step down after pressure from activist investors

Pinebridge has offered the group’s board 103p per share, Sky News reported.

The post Pinebridge makes reported £565m bid for PRS REIT appeared first on Property Week.

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Should James Cleverly try to choose his opponent in final round?

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This article is an on-site version of our Inside Politics newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. If you’re not a subscriber, you can still receive the newsletter free for 30 days

Good morning. James Cleverly took a giant leap towards the final stage of the Conservative leadership contest yesterday. But who will join him, and should he try and game the outcome?

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

Pick your battles

James Cleverly won the third ballot of the Conservative leadership contest. The former home secretary secured 39 votes, pulling ahead of Robert Jenrick, who shed two votes between the second and third ballots, ending up with 31 votes, while Kemi Badenoch picked up two votes to reach 30. Tom Tugendhat, who got 20 votes, has been eliminated. Only two contestants will go through to a final vote by the party membership.

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The vast majority of Tugendhat’s supporters will, if my contact book is remotely representative, swing behind Cleverly in the next round, while Jenrick and Badenoch are now in a close fight for the other members’ slot. Cleverly will have more than enough votes going spare tomorrow to choose his opponent. Which one should he pick?

On the one hand, according to both the ConservativeHome members survey and YouGov’s party members poll, Cleverly would beat Robert Jenrick but lose to Badenoch. One argument is that he should make sure he faces Jenrick because he is, on paper, much more likely to beat him.

Bar chart of ConservativeHome's post-conference Tory member preferences, % of respondents showing There Chagos

I’m dubious about this one, though. In the past, both ConservativeHome and YouGov have overestimated the strength of the Tory right. I see no compelling reason to believe either survey has fixed that problem, and if Cleverly’s strength is being underestimated to anything like the degree that Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak were in 2019 and 2022, he will comfortably beat either Jenrick or Badenoch.

On the other hand, Jenrick’s campaign team has shown itself to be more aggressive, more effective and more willing to go into the gutter. Cleverly may well have more to fear from a month in which the former immigration minister’s slick campaign machine attacks him, than one in which Badenoch wonders out loud about which part of the British state she thinks is too flabby and too generous.

Cleverly’s leadership prospects will be better served if he defeats his more formidable rival, which, according to the polls is Badenoch.

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I’m also dubious about this one, because it may be that YouGov and ConservativeHome have fixed their over-representation problem and that by picking Badenoch he is starting a fight he can’t win.

My general view: life is too short to play silly tactical games. Given the parliamentary party is not large, at 121 MPs, you can always end up in a situation where the campaign tries to lend votes to a preferred opponent, some individual MPs freelance and you end up finishing third in embarrassing circumstances. (In 1990, the organisers of John Major, Michael Heseltine and Douglas Hurd’s campaigns for the Tory leadership met up for dinner afterwards to compare the size of their various promises: they discovered that about a third of their colleagues had lied through their teeth.) When you only have 121 votes to play with, you’re better off just maximising your own authority, because if you win, you will need it.

Now try this

(Georgina) Yesterday Stephen and I saw the play The Other Place, which comes with the subtitle After Antigone. It grapples with death and the aftermath. In a taut 80 minutes, the reinvented tragedy excels at ramping up the tension as the characters move within a newly renovated, sorrow ridden house, but the pace partly leaves some of the more problematic family dynamics feeling a little forced and under-developed.

Runs to November 9 at the National Theatre.

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  • Diving out | Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund has written off its investment in Thames Water in a blow to the government as it gears up to host a summit designed to attract big institutional investors to the UK.

  • ‘MI5 has one hell of a job on its hands’ | Russian spies are on a “mission to generate mayhem” on Britain’s streets as Iran foments lethal plots at “an unprecedented pace and scale”, the head of the UK’s domestic intelligence service has warned.

  • Reeves presses ahead on borrowing | Rachel Reeves is pushing ahead with plans to borrow billions of pounds extra for infrastructure investment, despite concerns about the rising cost of UK government debt, the Guardian’s Kiran Stacey was first to report.

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FCA consolidation review is too little too late

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Nic Cicutti
Nic Cicutti
Nic Cicutti – Illustration by Dan Murrell

What are we to make of the news the Financial Conduct Authority is to review consolidation in the advice market?

The regulator has written to advice and investment firm bosses noting an increase in the acquisition of firms or their assets over the past two years.

It warned that, while industry consolidation can provide benefits, various types of harm can occur where this is not done in a ‘prudent manner’ with effective controls to promote good outcomes.

The FCA says: “Where we receive notifications from individuals or firms to acquire or increase control in regulated firms, we will assess and challenge their suitability and the financial soundness of the acquisition.”

For the FCA to step in now seems a spectacular example of shutting the stable door after multiple horses have bolted

I think it’s a case of too little too late.

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Back in November 2021, Money Marketing’s Lois Vallely penned a useful guide to consolidation in which she noted how its origins date back to the 1980s and 1990s heyday of DBS and M&E Network, which then bought Interdependence in 1999 to bring it under the Tenet umbrella.

In the early noughties, we also had Millfield, Berkeley Berry Birch and Inter-Alliance, several of them engaging in failed mergers with each other. None of these firms now exist in their present form, with shareholders – both individual and corporate – having taken a massive loss on their investments.

Undeterred by these exercises in value destruction, in 2005 Standard Life bought a 20% stake in the Tenet Group network. Tenet’s other shareholders – Norwich Union, Friends Provident and Aegon – each increased their stakes to around 20% in light of the deal.

Quite how anyone could have been remotely surprised by what had been screamingly obvious for years is anyone’s guess. Hundreds of ARs had exited Tenet in the years before it went under

As we know, earlier this year, Tenet went into administration. Its remaining 170-odd advice firms, numbering barely 350 authorised representatives (ARs), were offered the option of transferring to Openwork.

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News that Tenet had called in the administrators was described in one story I read at the time as “shocking” – although quite how anyone could have been remotely surprised by what had been screamingly obvious for years is anyone’s guess. Hundreds of ARs had exited Tenet in the five years before it went under.

Even Tenet’s own review found the AR sector was subject to “significant change” from “external forces such as consolidation, increased regulation, digitisation, new technology expense and the broader inflationary environment”.

ARs themselves, meanwhile, will continue to be treated as disposable pawns on the financial advice chessboard

What these stories tell us is that providers and consolidators will always seek to buy or control product distribution or assets under management. Providers will repeatedly invest in the endlessly-failing dreams of senior executives at consolidators who tell them, yet again, things will be different this time round.

ARs themselves, meanwhile, will continue to be treated as disposable pawns on the financial advice chessboard. They either survive yet another round of takeovers or drop out, missed by no one but their clients – who receive a letter to say the business name has changed, or their adviser has left, or both.

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We’re then offered an appointment with someone we didn’t choose to go to in the first place, providing a different service we didn’t ask for.

We put up with it because that’s just how it works

It happened to me 20 years ago. It’s happened to several of my friends, who are among many hundreds of thousands of clients with the same experience. And we put up with it because that’s just how it works.

For the FCA to step in now seems a spectacular example of shutting the stable door after multiple horses have bolted.

At this rate, I’m expecting the regulator to send out stern letters to chief executives saying it is determined to stamp out misselling of mortgage endowments and personal pensions. I can’t wait.

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Nic Cicutti can be contacted at nic@inspiredmoney.co.uk

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Marriott unveils Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand

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Marriott unveils Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand

The group has signed an agreement with Resident Hotels to convert four Sleeperz Hotels in Cardiff, Dundee, Edinburgh and Newcastle to the new brand, with more properties set to follow

Continue reading Marriott unveils Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand at Business Traveller.

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I am not Bitcoin inventor, says man named in HBO film

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I am not Bitcoin inventor, says man named in HBO film
GitHub Peter ToddGitHub

Peter Todd – picture from his GitHub page

A new documentary claims to have solved the greatest mystery in cryptocurrency: the true identity of the inventor of Bitcoin.

The question has captivated the internet since the digital currency was launched by an unknown person or persons calling themselves Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009.

Now the makers of an HBO film say they finally have the answer: Canadian crypto expert Peter Todd.

The only problem with the theory – Mr Todd has dismissed it as “ludicrous.”

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In Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, Peter Todd is confronted by film-maker Cullen Hoback

Mr Hoback shows him his evidence and asks him if he was behind the now trillion dollar invention – a suggestion Mr Todd laughs off.

“I am not Satoshi Nakamoto”, he has since posted on X.

Enormous wealth

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The intrigue around Satoshi is not just due to the mystery of their identity, but because of the enormous wealth they have accumulated.

If they still had control of their bitcoin wallet, it would be worth around $69bn today – meaning Satoshi would be around the 20th richest person in the world.

Peter Todd is a prominent Bitcoin developer and has been credited with many innovations in the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency.

But he has never previously been named as a prime Satoshi candidate in the years that people have spent trying to unmask the Bitcoin inventor.

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There is huge interest in this latest attempt to solve that riddle. Ahead of the documentary being released more than $44m was placed in bets on crypto betting website Polymarket on who the programme would name as Satoshi.

Cullen Hoback, who has previously attempted to unmask anonymous online figures like Q from Q Anon, says he came to his conclusion after years of research and interviews.

One of his pieces of evidence that Mr Todd is Satoshi is a forum post he found from Peter Todd that looked to be a continuation of one from Satoshi.

Another is that he once said online that he destroyed a huge number of the digital coins deliberately.

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A leading theory is that Satoshi deliberately destroyed access to his massive stash of bitcoins that were the originals created to start bitcoin.

The 1.1m coins are now worth a fortune but have never been spent or transferred.

Satoshi’s stash of unmoved coins represent 5% of all bitcoins as the inventor decided that there would only ever be 21 million coins created.

Mr Todd though says his posting history indicates he was not involved – he claims he was “too busy with school and work.”

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Previous theories

A number of individuals from the computing world have been previously tipped as the cryptocurrency’s creator.

In 2014, a high-profile article in Newsweek identified Dorian Nakamoto, a Japanese-American man living in California as Satoshi. But he denied it and the claim has largely been debunked.

In 2015, Wired and Gizmodo published an investigation that pointed to Australian computer scientist Craig Wright.

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Soon after, Wright declared in interviews with outlets, including the BBC, that he was indeed Satoshi and showed apparent proof.

But his claims were disregarded by the community and after years of claiming to be the inventor, a UK High Court judge ruled that there was “overwhelming” evidence that he is not Satoshi.

Tech billionaire and crypto enthusiast Elon Musk also denied he was behind the cryptocurrency after a former employee at one of his firms, SpaceX, suggested it.

For some of the most prominent voices in Bitcoin, keeping Satoshi’s identity secret is a part of the appeal and power of the decentralised currency.

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Adam Black, one of the core developers (and another potential Satoshi candidate) posted on X ahead of the documentary: “No one knows who satoshi is. and that’s a good thing.

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