Money
Keir Starmer WON’T rule out tax hike on jobs in shock U-turn on manifesto promise
SIR Keir Starmer has refused to rule out a National Insurance hike for employers despite Labour’s manifesto vowing not to do so.
Tory leader Rishi Sunak grilled the PM three times, demanding to know if he would stand by his pledge.
But Sir Keir dodged the questions, leaving the door wide open for a tax raid on employers.
Labour’s manifesto stated that “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT” .
In their first exchange at Prime Minister’s Questions after party conferences season, Mr Sunak said: “Can he confirm that when he promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT that commitment applies to both employer and employee national Insurance contributions?”
Sir Keir replied: “As he well knows I am not going to get drawn on decisions that will be set out [at the Budget].
“We made an absolute commitment in relation to not raising tax on working people.
“He of course was the experts’ expert on raising taxes.”
Asked the same question again, Sir Keir would only go so far as to say that he would stick to the promises made in Labour’s manifesto.
The PM also refused to rule out changing fiscal rules to increase Budget spending power.
It comes amid speculation Rachel Reeves could do to potentially unlock up to £57bn in additional spending on infrastructure.
Replying to Mr Sunak, Sir Keir said: “This is literally the man who was in charge – 14 years they crashed the economy. What did they leave? A £22 billion black hole.”
The Tory leader then told the Commons: “He has opened the door to raising employer National Insurance contributions including on pensions and fiddling the figures that he can borrow more.”
Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt also hit out on Twitter: “The Prime Minister has today left the door open to the Labour Party breaking their promises to the British people by raising taxes and increasing borrowing, leaving future generations to pick up the bill and risking higher interest rates.
“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves should have had the courage and conviction to be honest about the tax and borrowing plans they always planned.”
What is National Insurance and what is the difference between employee and employers contributions?
NATIONAL Insurance (NI) is a tax on earnings and self-employed profits in the UK that helps pay for state benefits.
Both employees and employers must pay NI, but their contributions work differently.
Employee contributions are deducted directly from their salary based on how much they earn.
Employer contributions, on the other hand, are additional payments that businesses make based on their employees’ wages.
This means that for every employee, the company pays extra to the government.
Employees’ NI contributions affect their eligibility for benefits like the state pension, while employers’ contributions are just a cost of hiring staff.
An increase in employer NI means higher employment costs, which could impact hiring decisions and salaries.
Money
Celebrity chef CLOSES seafront restaurant today after just three years as fans cry ‘we didn’t see it coming’
A CELEBRITY chef’s seafront restaurant is set to close today after three years of business.
Michael Caines has shocked fans after announcing he is selling not just one but two of his popular restaurants.
Mickeys Beach Bar and Restaurant in Exmouth opened in April 2021 but tonight after dinner, it will close for good.
It offered all-day coffee, drinks, afternoon tea, and casual dining with glorious views of Torquay to Berry Head and the English Channel.
The restaurant was one of the first businesses in Sideshore and loved by many.
Customers on Google Reviews described it as having “a lovely atmosphere”, with “great views”, “seamless” service and “delicious” food.
Now, after three and a half years, it has been sold to someone else.
And not only this, Cafe Patisserie Glacerie, owned by Michael Caines and Sylvian Peltier will close too.
It is believed both restaurants have been sold to another local business, DevonLive reports.
Both venues will close in preparation for the site being sold.
In a statement Michael said: “On behalf of all the team we would like to thank our customers and suppliers for your support, we have thoroughly enjoyed serving each and every one of you and making Mickeys and the Café a special place to meet by the sea.
“I would also like to thank my team for their unwavering support and dedication, despite the challenging times we have had, I am proud of what we have been able to create.
“We are however delighted to announce the sale of the business to another local business operator who shares a similar passion, for fun relaxed dining.”
The Michael Caines Collection of restaurants said it will make another announcement once the sale is completed.
Customers have been redirected to Pool House Restaurant at Lympstone Manor hotel “for casual and relaxed dining”.
Disappointed locals took to Facebook to share their disappointment.
One person said: “Shame. Only decent place on the beach front.”
While a second wrote: “Good job we grabbed a drink when we did.”
A third person said: “A sad reflection of Exmouth, falling further into poverty.”
And a fourth commented: “Well! We didn’t see that coming!…”
Money
Government ‘doing its best to scare people’ into bad decisions
The Labour government “seems to be doing its best to scare people” into making bad decisions, according to Strategic Wealth Partners managing director and chartered financial planner Amyr Rocha Lima.
Speaking at Money Marketing Interactive in London yesterday (8 October), he told advisers to expect more phone calls ahead of the Budget.
“Even our most well behaved and responsible clients will reach out to us,” Lima said.
However, “if your clients do not reach out to you in the run-up to the Budget, you should reach out to them,” he added.
Triple Point retail strategy director Diana French, speaking on the same panel as Lima, said the backdrop for this Budget includes tax at its highest level since 1949.
“The tax environment is hard at the moment and is likely to get harder,” she said. “I do really feel like tax is a big conversation right now.”
Lima said regardless of what is announced in the Budget, it is “important we treat people as human beings.”
During the panel discussion, French also spoke positively about venture capital trusts (VCTs).
VCTs are investment vehicles that were set up to promote investment in small UK businesses that meet certain criteria.
To encourage support for these businesses, the government offer generous tax benefits..
In September 2023, French told Money Marketing that VCTs “are becoming a part of regular [financial] advice”.
French added that VCTs give investors access to companies that can grow very quickly.
Triple Point is a purpose-led investment management house that supports financial advisers, but does not actually provide advice to investors itself.
Industry duo Lima and Ian Cooke launched Strategic Wealth Partners, a financial planning practice targeted at high-net-worth clients across the UK.
CryptoCurrency
DOJ’s Google breakup remedy puts tech world on notice
The US Justice Department said in a new court filing that it may recommend a break up of Google (GOOG, GOOGL) as an antidote to unhealthy competition in the search engine market, showing just how far Washington is willing to go to rein in Big Tech.
DOJ lawyers used a 32-page document to outline a framework of options for DC District Court Judge Amit Mehta to consider, including “behavioral and structural remedies that would prevent Google from using products such as Chrome, Play, and Android to advantage Google search.”
Google in a blog post said that “DOJ’s radical and sweeping proposals risk hurting consumers, businesses, and developers.”
Its stock fell slightly in pre-market trading Wednesday.
The proposal is the first step from the Justice Department to break up a tech empire since it tried to do so more than two decades ago with Microsoft (MSFT).
That case — which the DOJ referenced in its Tuesday court filing — resulted in a 2002 settlement that opened the door to broader competition in the internet browser software market.
The move by DOJ also sends a signal to other tech giants currently facing antitrust cases from DOJ and other Washington regulators as part of a wide-ranging effort by the Biden administration to rein in what it views as anticompetitive behavior across a number of industries.
The administration has already alleged anticompetitive conduct against tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) and claimed that Microsoft’s acquisition of gaming giant Activision Blizzard would create a gaming market monopoly.
The case against Google targeting its dominance in search resulted in a landmark decision in August, where DC District Court Judge Amit Mehta sided with DOJ and concluded Google illegally monopolized the online search engine market and the market for search text advertising.
Mehta concluded that Google’s agreements with browser providers and devices powered by Google’s Android operating system stifled rivals from entering and growing within the markets.
It will now be up to Mehta to decide what should happen now in a separate “remedies” phase of the trial that will likely start in 2025.
DOJ is expected to provide a more detailed document by Nov. 20 outlining these remedies. But the 32-page document filed late Tuesday offers several points of focus beyond forcing Google to sell parts of its business.
One has to do with contracts that secure Google’s search engine as a default on internet browsers and internet-connected devices that use Google’s Android operating system.
Google pays as much as $26 billion per year to maintain its position on mobile devices like Apple (AAPL) and Samsung smartphones.
Justice Department lawyers said to prevent further harm they may seek to limit or terminate Google’s use of those contracts that use Chrome, Play and Android to advantage Google search, as well as “other revenue-sharing arrangements related to search and search-related products, potentially with or without the use of a choice screen.”
The DOJ could also ask the judge to force Google to share with rival browsers and search providers the data that it uses to refine its search algorithms, and limit the company’s dominance over search text ads.
DOJ suggested the judge should also consider blocking Google from illegally monopolizing related markets, in addition to the search and search text advertising markets.
It may ask the judge to force Google to give websites more ability to “opt out” of “any Google-owned artificial-intelligence product.”
Google pushed back on the DOJ’s suggestions.
“We believe that today’s blueprint goes well beyond the legal scope of the Court’s decision about Search distribution contracts,” Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice president of regulatory affairs, wrote in a blog post.
Google has promised to appeal. And Judge Mehta could hold off on any orders to alter Google’s behavior while it challenges his ruling in D.C.’s Circuit Court of Appeals.
The judge would lose the right to impose remedies if Google is found not to have broken the law on appeal.
And even if Google fails and is ordered to change its behavior, Judge Mehta could later adjust his orders to better ensure competition is restored.
Google faces antitrust challenges on other fronts. It is currently defending itself in a separate lawsuit from DOJ alleging a monopoly in the technology used to but and sell online ads.
And earlier this week another federal judge ordered Google to open up its app store as part of the resolution of a suit brought by Epic Games Inc.
DOJ cited that ruling in its Tuesday court filing that outlined a Google breakup as one possible remedy, noting that the judge in the Epic Games case said remedies should “bridge to moat” to combat network effects.
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CryptoCurrency
Everything HBO’s Bitcoin doc got wrong about Peter Todd and Satoshi
HBO’s “Money Electric” suggests Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto, but contradictions and timeline errors abound.
CryptoCurrency
Billionaire Ken Griffin Just Bought 7.9 Million Shares of This Beaten-Down Pharmaceutical Stock as It Eyes the Weight Loss Market
Each quarter, hedge funds that manage over $100 million are required to file a Form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These filings break down which stocks investment firms bought and sold during the most recent quarter.
Ken Griffin is a billionaire investor who serves as CEO of the hedge fund Citadel. Last quarter, Citadel bought 7.9 million shares of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) — increasing its stake in the pharmaceutical giant by 63%.
The last few years have featured a lot of ups and downs for Pfizer. While shares have posted break-even returns so far in 2024, Pfizer stock has cratered by more than 30% over the last three years.
Below, I’ll outline some of the bigger factors that have been weighing on Pfizer while also sharing my thoughts on what may have influenced Citadel to load up on the stock.
What is causing Pfizer stock to drop?
I see three major influences that have contributed to Pfizer’s beaten-down stock price.
1. COVID-19: Along with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer played an instrumental role in developing vaccines that combated the COVID-19 virus. In the chart below, the grey shaded column represents the short-lived COVID-19 recession.
Between 2020 and 2022, Pfizer’s revenue and profits soared thanks in large part to the company’s COVID-related medications, Comirnaty and Paxlovid. However, since the fourth quarter of 2022, Pfizer’s growth has witnessed a noticeable deceleration due to falling demand for these COVID treatments as the world emerged from peak pandemic conditions.
2. Acquisitions: In an effort to combat stalling growth and diversify its product offerings, Pfizer acquired oncology specialist Seagen for $43 billion back in December 2023. While revenue from Seagen will help offset the declining sales of Comirnaty and Paxlovid, acquisitions often take years of integration efforts before they are fully accretive.
3. Road map: One risk to always keep in mind with pharmaceutical stocks is that these companies face patent cliffs on their medications. Over the next few years, Pfizer expects to face patent challenges over some of its biggest drugs, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Prevnar 13, and Xtandi. Although it’s difficult to know how much Pfizer’s growth will be impacted as generic alternatives to these treatments hit the market, the company could very well lose out on billions in sales.
Something else may be lingering in the background
Considering sales from Pfizer’s blockbuster COVID treatments are declining combined with billions more in revenue at stake thanks to expiring patents, what else can Pfizer do to offset these risks besides inorganic growth derived from acquisitions?
One hot area in the healthcare realm that Pfizer has been eyeing for some time is weight loss. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus, Saxenda, Mounjaro, and Zepbound have been transformative growth drivers for their developers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
The global total addressable market (TAM) for GLP-1s is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, according to research from Goldman Sachs. Although Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate the GLP-1 space at the moment, a number of other pharmaceutical companies of varying sizes are competing to break into the market.
While it’s still early days for Pfizer’s GLP-1 candidate, Danuglipron, recent clinical testing has indicated the drug is well tolerated.
The bottom line
Considering the unknowns surrounding Pfizer’s business as it relates to offset declining sales from COVID medications, the vulnerability presented by patent cliffs, and the multi-year timeline surrounding large-scale acquisitions, I’m not surprised to see Pfizer stock continue sliding.
Right now, Pfizer trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just 10.8. To put this into perspective, this is less than half of the S&P 500 index’s forward P/E multiple of 23.2.
I think the current trading activity surrounding Pfizer stock paints a clear picture; many investors are thinking about the short-term risks instead of longer-term prospects. Another way of looking at it is that the potential gains from Danuglipron combined with growth from Seagen could more than offset any losses from other medications in the long term.
Pfizer’s contracting valuation and its potential to enter the new markets may be what is compelling Citadel to continue buying the stock.
With all of this said, it is going to take years before Pfizer hits its stride in the oncology treatment market. Moreover, there is no guarantee that its ambitions in the weight loss realm will ever come to fruition, as much more testing with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will be required before Danuglipron potentially hits the market.
Should you invest $1,000 in Pfizer right now?
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Adam Spatacco has positions in Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Billionaire Ken Griffin Just Bought 7.9 Million Shares of This Beaten-Down Pharmaceutical Stock as It Eyes the Weight Loss Market was originally published by The Motley Fool
CryptoCurrency
Bill Gross Recommends Shift to Defensive Stocks as Rally Loses Steam
(Bloomberg) — The rally that’s helped US stocks almost double in value over the past five years is tapering off, and investors should expect low but positive returns on their investments, according to Bill Gross.
Most Read from Bloomberg
The billionaire investor recommends keeping exposure to the stock market at average levels, while focusing portfolios more on defensive stocks with a small position in bonds.
“No bear market, but it’s not the same bull market anymore,” Gross, the co-founder and former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in his latest investment outlook.
Gross’s comments add to a steady drumbeat of warnings the furious rally that’s pushed the S&P 500 to record highs may be running out of steam. A small-but-growing cohort of market watchers have cast doubt on the AI frenzy, which has been one of the biggest contributors to the surge in stocks, while others have warned that the forthcoming US presidential election could test investor optimism.
In the note, Gross lists negative headwinds, such as high valuations, geopolitical risks and an unsustainable government deficit, against positives forces, including inflation nearer to the Federal Reserve’s target and AI investment spending.
Among the negatives, Gross also cited potential increases in corporate taxes if Democrat Kamala Harris wins the election on Nov. 5 and her party takes a majority in Congress. Reports that Warren Buffett is now hoarding a record amount of cash also serve as a warning about the “bumpy road ahead,” Gross said.
Gross retired from the money-management business in 2019 and has since shared investment thoughts and trade ideas on his website and social media.
Gross’s favorite investments include Annaly Capital Management, a high-yielding mortgage REIT, DWS Municipal Income Trust, a close-end muni fund, and master limited partnerships (MLPs), which are tied to oil and gas contracts. He also likes Allete Inc, a utility company that is a buyout target.
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