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Edited excerpts from a chat:

After the Budget hiked STT on F&O, the break-even point for retail traders has moved much higher. Do you fear this is the ‘death knell’ for the high-frequency retail F&O boom that fueled Upstox’s early growth, and have you revised your revenue projections for FY27 downward as a result?
The impact of the STT hike remains difficult to quantify at this stage. However, the business has reduced its dependence on any single trading segment by building multiple revenue streams. Strong growth in other segments such as commodities, margin trading facility (MTF) and mutual funds, alongside improving profitability, provides resilience against regulatory changes. Diversification is viewed as a key hedge in an environment of evolving market structure.With the new STT regime likely to dampen trading volumes further, where will the next leg of revenue growth come from or are we entering a phase of consolidation?
The next leg of growth is increasingly being driven by diversification beyond core equity trading. The commodities business has reported nearly 400% growth in revenue, alongside a doubling of market share in average daily turnover. The margin trading facility book has grown more than two-fold year-on-year, with market share increasing by about 30%. Mutual funds have also emerged as a strong growth driver, with SIP assets-under-advisory market share rising nearly 12%, helping create a more balanced revenue mix.

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At an industry level, how much of volume decline in F&O are you expecting in FY27?
At this stage, it’s difficult to comment on any potential decline or uptick, as F&O volumes are largely linked to overall market sentiment. In an environment shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, making precise forecasts would be premature.
Industry data indicates retail investors are now not as enthusiastic about equities as they were earlier. You have also seen a drop in active clients. What’s changing the dynamics for you?
Customer engagement has increasingly been driven by traders with higher intent levels and deeper participation. Monetisation has improved meaningfully, with active revenue per active user growing over 40% year-on-year, while retention among high-value traders remains above 90%. This focus on engagement and customer quality has strengthened revenues and profitability despite moderation in overall active client numbers.
Is this decline a temporary cyclical blip, or have we hit peak saturation for the discount broking model in India?
Equity participation in India remains in single digits, which is significantly lower than participation levels in developed markets such as the US and China. This suggests that the long-term opportunity for retail investing is still structurally large. While the current phase reflects a cyclical slowdown influenced by market volatility and regulatory changes, it does not indicate saturation of the discount broking model. The focus remains on long-term participation and gradual deepening of investor engagement.

You’ve been aggressively pushing into insurance, fixed deposits, and mutual funds to shed the ‘trading app’ tag. However, the distribution space is crowded. Why would a customer buy insurance from Upstox rather than PolicyBazaar or their bank? Does this segment generate enough margin to replace lost F&O income?
The expansion into insurance, fixed deposits and mutual funds is part of a broader effort to evolve into a more comprehensive financial services platform. In mutual funds, the platform is already the fourth-largest in India by monthly SIPs, with SIP assets-under-advisory market share rising by nearly 12%. Insurance is being built as a long-term, complementary business aimed at improving customer lifetime value, rather than as a near-term replacement for trading-linked income.

How has the year been so far for Upstox, considering the regulatory landscape, and market trends? How has the company performed?
The year has played out in a challenging environment marked by regulatory tightening, changes in taxation and market volatility. Despite this, the company has reported strong momentum in business performance, with sharp gains in profitability and monetisation. Profit after tax is projected to grow over 2.3x year-on-year, from ₹215 crore in FY25 to around ₹500 crore in FY26, while EBITDA is also expected to grow more than two-fold. The performance has been driven by operating discipline, product innovation and a sharper focus on higher-quality, active traders.

When are you planning an IPO?
There is currently no fixed timeline for an IPO. The business is not under any capital pressure and remains comfortable operating as a private company. While investor interest has increased following peer listings, the priority continues to be on strengthening profitability, expanding product capabilities and building long-term value before taking a call on going public.

The Ford worker who heckled President Donald Trump during his visit last month to a Michigan auto plant was not disciplined and kept his job, the United Auto Workers union said on Monday.

TJ Sabula, 40, shouted at Trump that he was a “pedophile protector” as the president was touring the Ford River Rouge complex in Dearborn.

The president responded by mouthing the words “f— you” twice and giving the middle finger, according to video of the incident.

Trump’s Justice Department continues to face scrutiny from Republicans and Democrats for its delay in the release of additional documents related to the investigations into deceased sex predator Jeffrey Epstein, after a bipartisan law required the full release of the documents by Dec. 19.

FORD WORKER SUSPENDED FOR CALLING TRUMP ‘PEDOPHILE PROTECTOR’ HAS ‘NO REGRETS’ FOR ‘EMBARRASSING’ PRESIDENT

President Donald Trump acknowledges employees during a tour of the Ford River Rouge Plant, in Dearborn, Michigan. (The White House via X)

The president also told Sabula during the exchange that he would be fired, UAW Vice President Laura Dickerson said on Monday at a political conference in Washington, according to Reuters.

“This ain’t ‘The Apprentice’,” she said at the conference, referring to the reality show Trump hosted in which he would abruptly dismiss contestants for underperforming in the competition.

Dickerson said Sabula still has his job and “has no discipline on his record,” stressing that the union supports his right to free speech.

“There was a worker at that plant that day who famously told Mr. Trump exactly what he thought of him,” Dickerson said. “Unfortunately, in that moment, we saw what the current president really thinks about working people and the way he responded — he gave us the middle finger.”

Ford’s executive chairman Bill Ford said after the factory tour with Trump that the incident was unfortunate and that he was embarrassed by it.

President Donald Trump walks with Ford River Rouge Plant Manager Corey Williams (right), Executive chair of Ford Motor Company Bill Ford Jr. (left), and CEO of Ford Motor Company Jim Farley (second from right). (Getty Images / Getty Images)

Sabula said shortly after the exchange with the president that he had “no regrets whatsoever.”

“As far as calling him out, definitely no regrets whatsoever,” Sabula told The Washington Post at the time. He estimated that he was standing roughly 60 feet away from Trump and said the president could hear him “very, very, very clearly.”

He also said he believes he was “targeted for political retribution” for “embarrassing Trump in front of his friends.”

“I don’t feel as though fate looks upon you often, and when it does, you better be ready to seize the opportunity,” he said. “And today I think I did that.”

WHITE HOUSE SAYS TRUMP GAVE ‘APPROPRIATE’ RESPONSE AFTER HECKLER CONFRONTATION CAUGHT ON VIDEO AT FORD PLANT

President Donald Trump speaks alongside Ford executive chairman Bill Ford (second from left) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (left) as he tours Ford Motor Company’s River Rouge complex in Dearborn, Michigan. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

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Sabula described himself at the time as a political independent who had never voted for Trump but had supported other Republican candidates.

The White House responded to the exchange by arguing that Trump gave an “appropriate” response to the autoworker.

“A lunatic was wildly screaming expletives in a complete fit of rage, and the President gave an appropriate and unambiguous response,” White House communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement last month.

Reuters contributed to this report.

In exchange, Bangladesh has agreed to provide “significant preferential market access” to a host of American agricultural and industrial goods. These include opening up its markets to more US chemicals, medical devices, car parts, soy products and meat, said the White House.

The Asian M&A landscape in 2025 painted a picture of cautious optimism layered over deep structural challenges. While regional deal values rose 10% and volumes increased a modest 3%, these aggregate figures mask a market experiencing profound fragmentation. 

The forces reshaping global dealmaking, artificial intelligence chief among them, are hitting Asia with particular intensity, exposing gaps in capital access, technological readiness, and strategic conviction across the region’s diverse economies.

Asia’s M&A recovery tells multiple stories simultaneously. China, after years of subdued activity, saw deal volumes surge 22% in 2025, though levels remain well below the 2021 peak. India, Japan, and South Korea all posted double-digit growth in deal values, signaling pockets of robust activity. Yet most other Asia Pacific markets reported year-over-year declines in deal volumes, revealing a region where momentum concentrates in select markets while others struggle to gain traction. 

This uneven performance reflects more than cyclical variation. It signals Asia’s positioning in a global M&A market increasingly defined by a K-shaped recovery, where scale, capital depth, and AI readiness separate winners from the rest.

The Capital Allocation Dilemma Hitting Asia Hard

Asian corporations face an acute version of the capital allocation challenge confronting dealmakers worldwide. External estimates suggest that between $5 trillion and $8 trillion will flow toward AI technologies and enabling infrastructure globally over the next five years. For context, global M&A activity totaled just $3.5 trillion in 2025. This multitrillion-dollar AI investment supercycle is forcing Asian companies to make stark choices between building AI capabilities and pursuing traditional growth-through-acquisition strategies.

The tension manifests differently across the region. Chinese technology companies, already investing heavily in AI development, find themselves navigating both technological transformation and geopolitical constraints that complicate cross-border dealmaking. Japanese conglomerates, sitting on substantial cash reserves, are weighing AI infrastructure investments against long-planned international acquisitions. Indian technology services firms are racing to acquire AI capabilities while defending market share against AI-enabled automation.

The immediate impact is visible in near-term M&A activity. Capital that might have funded acquisitions is instead flowing into data centers, semiconductor capacity, cloud infrastructure, and AI model development. This reallocation helps explain why Asia’s deal volume growth lags value growth, and why mid-market activity remains particularly subdued.

Geographic Confidence Gaps Shape Deal Activity

Perhaps no metric better illustrates Asia’s M&A fragmentation than CEO confidence levels. According to PwC’s Global CEO Survey, approximately 50% of Indian CEOs plan major acquisitions within the next three years, matching optimism levels in the United States. Yet only around 20% of Chinese CEOs express similar intent, placing China among the most cautious major markets globally alongside Germany. 

This confidence gap translates directly into dealmaking patterns. India’s M&A market benefits from strong domestic growth expectations, a robust technology sector, and increasing interest from both strategic acquirers and financial sponsors. The country’s position as a beneficiary of supply chain diversification and nearshoring trends further supports deal activity.

China’s more muted M&A sentiment reflects multiple headwinds: regulatory uncertainty, property sector challenges, geopolitical tensions affecting outbound investment, and questions about the sustainability of growth rates. While the 22% increase in deal volumes suggests improving conditions, Chinese companies remain more focused on domestic consolidation and strategic repositioning than aggressive expansion.

Japan occupies middle ground, with deal activity driven by demographic pressures, succession planning for family-owned businesses, and large corporations pursuing portfolio rationalization. South Korea’s double-digit value growth reflects both technology sector strength and industrial consolidation, particularly in sectors adjacent to semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.

AI’s Impact: From Manufacturing to Healthcare

Asia’s manufacturing-heavy economy means AI’s impact on M&A extends beyond pure technology deals. PwC’s analysis of the 100 largest global M&A transactions in 2025 found that approximately one-third cited AI as part of their strategic rationale, with technology, manufacturing, and power and utilities sectors showing the highest AI references. 

For Asian companies, this creates both pressure and opportunity. Traditional manufacturing firms are pursuing acquisitions to embed AI across operations, supply chains, and product development. Healthcare companies are acquiring data analytics and software capabilities to accelerate drug development and personalized medicine. Industrial conglomerates are buying robotics and automation assets to integrate AI-driven efficiency gains.

SoftBank’s proposed $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB’s robotics business exemplifies Asia’s strategic approach, positioning a major Japanese technology investor at the intersection of AI and industrial automation. The deal signals recognition that AI’s value emerges not from algorithms alone but from their integration into physical systems and real-world operations.

Chinese pharmaceutical companies are also active, with innovation in drug development driving strategic transactions despite broader market caution. These deals reflect China’s strategic priority on technological self-sufficiency and its determination to build domestic capabilities in sectors deemed critical for future competitiveness.

The Scale Disadvantage in a Megadeal World

Asia confronts a structural challenge in the current M&A environment: relative underrepresentation in megadeals. While the region generated solid mid-market activity, it captured a smaller share of transactions exceeding $5 billion compared to the Americas, which dominated megadeal activity in 2025.

This matters because megadeals drove the entire recovery in global M&A values. Roughly 600 transactions above $1 billion accounted for the 36% increase in global deal values, while the remaining 47,000 transactions were flat year-over-year. Asian companies and markets participating less actively in this megadeal wave risk being left behind as competitive dynamics increasingly favor scale.

Several factors explain Asia’s megadeal deficit. First, regulatory scrutiny of large transactions has intensified across multiple jurisdictions, particularly for deals touching sensitive technologies or critical infrastructure. Second, cross-border megadeals face heightened geopolitical risk, encouraging companies to pursue domestic or regional transactions rather than transformative global consolidation. Third, valuation gaps between Asian targets and global acquirers remain wide, complicating negotiations for the largest deals.

The exception proves the rule: where Asian companies do pursue megadeals, they increasingly focus on acquiring capabilities essential for AI competitiveness, particularly in semiconductors, data infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.

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