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Crypto World

BTC faces fresh resistance near $71,000

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(Kaiko)

Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s selloff is already running into a wall.

After briefly sliding into the low-$60,000s in a capitulation-style move last week, the largest cryptocurrency snapped back toward the $70,000 level over the weekend but momentum has since faded.

That stall has traders re-framing the bounce as a classic bear-market pattern a sharp relief rally that draws in dip buyers, only to meet a wave of supply from investors looking to exit at better prices.

“There is still a huge supply in the markets from those who want to exit the first cryptocurrency on the rebound,” FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in an email. “In such conditions, it is worth being prepared for a new test of the 200-week moving average soon.”

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“We remain very sceptical about the near future, as the recovery momentum lost steam over the weekend, encountering a sell-off near the $2.4T level. Perhaps we have only seen a bounce on the way down, which is not yet complete,” he added.

Sentiment data paints a similarly fragile picture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sank to 6 over the weekend to reach the same levels as an FTX-led 2022 downturn, before recovering to 14 by late Monday.

Kuptsikevich said those readings remain “too low levels for confident purchases,” arguing the shift reflects more than temporary nerves.

Liquidity conditions are adding to the unease. With thinner order books, modest sell pressure can produce outsized moves, which then triggers additional stop-outs and liquidations a feedback loop that makes price action feel disorderly.

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That dynamic, rather than a single headline, can explain why bitcoin can swing thousands of dollars in a session while still failing to break through key resistance.

A Kaiko note on Monday described the backdrop as a broader risk-off unwind. It said aggregate trading volumes across major centralized exchanges have declined by roughly 30% since October and November, with monthly spot volumes dropping from around $1 trillion to the $700 billion range.

(Kaiko)

(Kaiko)

The firm said that although last week saw a few sharp bursts of trading, the broader trend has been a steady drop in participation. That points to traders, particularly retail investors, gradually leaving the market rather than being forced out all at once.

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When liquidity thins like this, prices can slide quickly on relatively modest selling pressure, without the kind of heavy, panic-driven volume that usually signals a clear capitulation and a durable bottom.

Kaiko also framed the move within the familiar four-year halving cycle logic. Bitcoin peaked around $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 and has since retraced sharply, with the pullback into the $60,000-$70,000 zone representing a roughly 50%-plus drawdown from the highs.

Historically, those bottoms can take months to develop and often feature multiple failed rallies.

For now, bitcoin’s ability to hold the $60,000 area is the key tell. If buyers continue to defend it, the market may settle into a choppy consolidation. If not, the same thin-liquidity dynamics that fueled the washout could return quickly, especially if broader macro conditions stay risk-off.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.