Business
Upstox not in a hurry for IPO, targets 2.3x jump in FY26 profit to Rs 500 crore
Edited excerpts from a chat:
After the Budget hiked STT on F&O, the break-even point for retail traders has moved much higher. Do you fear this is the ‘death knell’ for the high-frequency retail F&O boom that fueled Upstox’s early growth, and have you revised your revenue projections for FY27 downward as a result?
The impact of the STT hike remains difficult to quantify at this stage. However, the business has reduced its dependence on any single trading segment by building multiple revenue streams. Strong growth in other segments such as commodities, margin trading facility (MTF) and mutual funds, alongside improving profitability, provides resilience against regulatory changes. Diversification is viewed as a key hedge in an environment of evolving market structure.With the new STT regime likely to dampen trading volumes further, where will the next leg of revenue growth come from or are we entering a phase of consolidation?
The next leg of growth is increasingly being driven by diversification beyond core equity trading. The commodities business has reported nearly 400% growth in revenue, alongside a doubling of market share in average daily turnover. The margin trading facility book has grown more than two-fold year-on-year, with market share increasing by about 30%. Mutual funds have also emerged as a strong growth driver, with SIP assets-under-advisory market share rising nearly 12%, helping create a more balanced revenue mix.
At an industry level, how much of volume decline in F&O are you expecting in FY27?
At this stage, it’s difficult to comment on any potential decline or uptick, as F&O volumes are largely linked to overall market sentiment. In an environment shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, making precise forecasts would be premature.
Industry data indicates retail investors are now not as enthusiastic about equities as they were earlier. You have also seen a drop in active clients. What’s changing the dynamics for you?
Customer engagement has increasingly been driven by traders with higher intent levels and deeper participation. Monetisation has improved meaningfully, with active revenue per active user growing over 40% year-on-year, while retention among high-value traders remains above 90%. This focus on engagement and customer quality has strengthened revenues and profitability despite moderation in overall active client numbers.
Is this decline a temporary cyclical blip, or have we hit peak saturation for the discount broking model in India?
Equity participation in India remains in single digits, which is significantly lower than participation levels in developed markets such as the US and China. This suggests that the long-term opportunity for retail investing is still structurally large. While the current phase reflects a cyclical slowdown influenced by market volatility and regulatory changes, it does not indicate saturation of the discount broking model. The focus remains on long-term participation and gradual deepening of investor engagement.
You’ve been aggressively pushing into insurance, fixed deposits, and mutual funds to shed the ‘trading app’ tag. However, the distribution space is crowded. Why would a customer buy insurance from Upstox rather than PolicyBazaar or their bank? Does this segment generate enough margin to replace lost F&O income?
The expansion into insurance, fixed deposits and mutual funds is part of a broader effort to evolve into a more comprehensive financial services platform. In mutual funds, the platform is already the fourth-largest in India by monthly SIPs, with SIP assets-under-advisory market share rising by nearly 12%. Insurance is being built as a long-term, complementary business aimed at improving customer lifetime value, rather than as a near-term replacement for trading-linked income.
How has the year been so far for Upstox, considering the regulatory landscape, and market trends? How has the company performed?
The year has played out in a challenging environment marked by regulatory tightening, changes in taxation and market volatility. Despite this, the company has reported strong momentum in business performance, with sharp gains in profitability and monetisation. Profit after tax is projected to grow over 2.3x year-on-year, from ₹215 crore in FY25 to around ₹500 crore in FY26, while EBITDA is also expected to grow more than two-fold. The performance has been driven by operating discipline, product innovation and a sharper focus on higher-quality, active traders.
When are you planning an IPO?
There is currently no fixed timeline for an IPO. The business is not under any capital pressure and remains comfortable operating as a private company. While investor interest has increased following peer listings, the priority continues to be on strengthening profitability, expanding product capabilities and building long-term value before taking a call on going public.
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Rare Earth Element Prices Are Making New Highs
I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager.
I began investing in the stock market 2 months prior to the 1987 stock market crash and thus quickly learned about the downside potential of stocks. Only slightly daunted by the rather inauspicious timing of my entry into the world of financial market investments, my interest in the stock market grew steadily over the years.
In 1993, after studying the history of money, the nature of our present-day fiat monetary system and the role of banks in the creation of money, I developed an interest in gold. Another very important lesson soon followed: gold may be the ideal form of money for those who believe in free markets and a wonderful hedge against the inherent instability of the government-imposed paper currencies, but it is not always a good investment.
By mid-1998 the time and money involved in my financial market research/investments had grown to the point where I was forced to make a decision: scale back on my involvement in the financial world or give up my day job. The decision was actually quite an easy one to make and so, at the beginning of 1999, I began investing/trading on a full-time basis.
My major concern in deciding to pursue a career in which I devoted all of my time to my own investments was that I would miss the personal interaction that had been part and parcel of my business management career. The Speculative Investor (TSI) web site was launched in August of 1999 as a means for me to interact with the world by making my analysis/ideas available on the Internet and inviting feedback from others with similar interests.
During its first 14 months of operation the TSI web site was free of charge, but due to the site’s growing popularity I changed it to a subscription-based service in October of 2000. Its popularity continued to grow, although I remained — and remain to this day — a professional speculator who happens to write a newsletter as opposed to someone whose overriding focus is selling newsletter subscriptions.
My approach is ‘top down’; specifically, I first ascertain overall market trends and then use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to find individual stocks that stand to benefit from these broad trends. This approach is based on my experience that it’s an order of magnitude easier to pick a winning stock from within a market or market sector that’s immersed in a long-term bullish trend than to do so against the backdrop of a bearish overall market trend. Fortunately, there’s always a bull market somewhere.
I’ve lived in Asia (Hong Kong, China and Malaysia) since 1995 and currently reside in Malaysian Borneo.
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Macquarie Group Limited (MQBKY) Q3 2026 Sales/ Trading Statement Call Transcript
Samuel Dobson
Head of Investor Relations
Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us here today for Macquarie’s Third Quarter and Third Quarter ’26 and 2026 Operational Briefing.
Before we begin today, I would like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of this land, the Gadigal of the Eora Nation and pay our respects to elders past, present and emerging.
Today, we will have a third quarter update, which will be given by our CEO, Shemara Wikramanayake, followed by a Q&A session. We’ll then hear from each of our operating groups talking about Macquarie’s presence here in ANZ. And then we’ll hear from Andrew Cassidy talking about risk and Nicole Sorbara and team talking about technology.
So, with that, I will hand over to Shemara. Thank you.
Business
Thailand Airports Set to Accommodate Over 4 Million Passengers for Chinese New Year Holiday
Thailand’s Airports of Thailand Plc (AOT) is preparing for a significant surge in passenger traffic across its six airports during the Chinese New Year holiday period, from February 13-22, 2026.
This anticipated increase, totaling over 4.11 million passengers, is primarily driven by a robust recovery in the Chinese tourism market and a renewed confidence in Thailand’s travel sector.
Key Insights
- Passenger surge forecast: Airports of Thailand (AOT) expects over 4.11 million passengers across six major airports during the Chinese New Year holiday (Feb 13–22, 2026).
- International travelers: ~2.6 million
- Domestic travelers: ~1.51 million
- Flights: ~24,847 (14,295 international, 10,552 domestic)
- Chinese market recovery:
- Chinese passenger numbers projected at 679,259, an 8.1% year-on-year increase.
- Suvarnabhumi Airport alone expects 444,255 passengers on China routes, a 24.2% rise compared to last year.
- This highlights strong confidence in Thailand’s tourism rebound and renewed demand from China.
During this ten-day festive period, AOT expects approximately 4.11 million passengers to pass through its major airports, including Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai, Mae Fah Luang–Chiang Rai, Phuket, and Hat Yai. This total comprises about 2.6 million international travelers and 1.51 million domestic passengers. The total number of flights is estimated at 24,847, with 14,295 international and 10,552 domestic flights.
Chinese Market Dominance
Data as of February 4, 2026, indicates a substantial rise in flights and passengers originating from China.
Chinese passenger numbers are projected to reach 679,259, marking an 8.1% year-on-year increase.
Suvarnabhumi Airport, the country’s main international gateway, is forecast to handle 444,255 passengers on China routes alone, a significant 24.2% increase compared to the previous year.
This recovery underscores growing confidence in Thailand’s tourism industry and a strong resurgence in international travel from China.
Operational Measures and Passenger Advisory:
AOT plans to organize Chinese New Year celebrations within passenger terminals, featuring lion dance performances and cultural demonstrations, to enhance the festive atmosphere for travelers.
Due to the expected heavy traffic, AOT strongly advises all passengers to arrive at the airports at least two to three hours before their scheduled departure times to avoid potential delays and missed flights during peak hours.
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Chipotle CEO suggests targeting customers earning over $100K, leaked audio shows
Check out what’s clicking on FoxBusiness.com.
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright suggested in leaked audio that the company would begin focusing on customers who make more than $100,000 per year, indicating further price hikes.
During a recent earnings call, Boatwright said 60% of customers earn more than $100,000 a year and that he wants to “lean into that group in a more meaningful way.”
“We learned that 60% of our core users are over $100,000 a year in income, in average household income. That gives us confidence that we can lean into that group in a more meaningful way — to really drive meaningful transaction performance in the year,” he said in leaked audio of the call, according to Yahoo Finance.
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Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright suggested that the company would begin focusing on customers who make more than $100,000 per year. (REUTERS/Andrew Kelly / Reuters)
“What we’ve learned is the guest skews younger, a little higher income, is typically a digital native, and that their grounded purpose aligns with our North Star as a brand, around clean food, clean ingredients, high protein,” Boatwright also said, according to Business Insider. “We are the way they want to eat, and we’re going to lean into that in the most meaningful way.”
Chipotle has also launched a new high protein menu to match the demand for “clean” food and ingredients, as well as high protein.
Chief Financial Officer Adam Rymer said during the call that consumers can expect menu prices to increase 1-2% amid rising food and labor expenses.
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Chief Financial Officer Adam Rymer said consumers can expect menu prices to increase 1-2% amid rising food and labor expenses. (REUTERS/Andrew Kelly / Reuters)
Boatwright later attempted to clarify the “misinformation” surrounding the chain’s pricing controversy.
He told Yahoo Finance that “60% of our consumers’ average household income is over $100,000 a year, and they’re still spending in this tough economy.”
The executive added that the company plans to “lean into those consumers with brand innovation, menu innovation and really give them more compelling reasons to come in.”
Chipotle spokesperson Laurie Schalow also said “pricing was never mentioned” regarding the $100,000 and over cohort.

Chipotle has launched a new high protein menu to match the demand for “clean” food and ingredients, as well as high protein. (iStock / iStock)
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“CEO Scott Boatwright stated on Chipotle’s earnings call last week that 60% of its customers have an average household income over $100,000, so the company sees an opportunity to lean into these customers with new occasions like group or solo dining experiences,” she said in a statement to Complex. “Since this consumer population is actively spending more at shops and restaurants today, Chipotle is giving them additional reasons to visit through new marketing and menu innovations, and enhancing the digital experience for all guests.”
“Pricing was never mentioned regarding this consumer cohort, and Chipotle has taken a slow and measured approach by only increasing prices in this quarter by around .7% compared to the industry average of 4%,” she added.
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