Crypto World
Hyperliquid beats Coinbase in 2025 notional trading volume
Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange, has quietly overtaken Coinbase in total notional trading volume, marking a major shift in how crypto traders are choosing to trade.
Summary
- Hyperliquid recorded about $2.6T in notional trading volume in 2025.
- Coinbase posted roughly $1.4T over the same period.
- The gap reflects rising demand for on-chain derivatives platforms.
According to data shared on Feb. 10 by on-chain analytics platform Artemis, Hyperliquid processed about $2.6 trillion in notional trading volume in 2025. Coinbase, one of the world’s largest centralized exchanges, recorded around $1.4 trillion over the same period.
Despite Hyperliquid (HYPE) launching only a few years ago and running entirely on-chain, the numbers show that it handled almost twice Coinbase’s trading volume. The milestone has drawn attention across the crypto industry, especially as decentralized platforms continue to challenge traditional exchanges.
How hyperliquid built its lead
Hyperliquid primarily focuses on trading perpetual futures and derivatives on its proprietary Layer 1 blockchain. Active traders seeking quick execution, cheap fees, and direct access to on-chain liquidity have been drawn to it thanks to its focused approach.
The platform grew quickly throughout 2025. Daily trading occasionally increased to close to $30 billion, while monthly volumes frequently reached hundreds of billions of dollars. The total value locked increased toward $6 billion, while open interest peaked at about $16 billion.
User growth also accelerated. The platform’s active user base grew from about 300,000 to more than 1.4 million in a year, driven largely by word-of-mouth and product performance rather than heavy marketing.
Fees collected on Hyperliquid are partly used for HYPE token buybacks and burns. This model has helped support long-term interest in the ecosystem. As of early 2026, HYPE is up roughly 31.7% on the year and continues to draw increasing attention from traders.
Coinbase operates very differently. Its higher fees, stricter compliance requirements, and fully centralized model for spot and derivatives trading still make it a key entry point for retail users. However, professional traders are increasingly turning their focus toward alternatives that offer more flexibility and lower costs.
Coinbase stock is down about 27.0% so far this year, showing how much pressure traditional crypto companies are under in the current market slowdown.
What this shift means for crypto trading
The growing gap between Hyperliquid and Coinbase reflects a change in how users trade. On-chain platforms offer speed and transparency without requiring users to hand over custody, and more traders are getting comfortable using them.
With Hyperliquid, derivatives traders do not need to trust a central operator with their funds. Smart contracts are used to manage risk, and trades settle on-chain. Users who have been wary of exchanges in the past will find this appealing.
At the same time, Hyperliquid has placed a strong emphasis on user experience. Its user interface is similar to that of large centralized platforms, which makes it easier for new users to get started. Its growth has largely been attributed to this combination of usability and decentralization.
Momentum has also been boosted by recent developments. The platform is being used to test new products such as outcome-based contracts and limited-risk options. Notable industry figures, like Arthur Hayes, who recently increased the size of his own HYPE holdings, have also taken notice of it.
But there are still issues. Competition in decentralized derivatives is increasing, and regulators are paying more attention to on-chain trading activity. Aster and Lighter, two rivals, are also expanding their product lines.
Markets have modernized in almost every way—except one. Trading infrastructure has gone digital, execution is instantaneous, and information moves globally in real time. Yet most traditional markets still shut down on nights, weekends, and holidays.
This is where TradFi intersects with crypto-native infrastructure. Platforms like Phemex are narrowing that gap by listing TradFi futures—price-tracking contracts tied to assets such as gold and silver—on infrastructure built for continuous markets.
Spot trading vs futures contracts
Spot and futures markets work differently, and that difference explains why TradFi futures matter. Put simply, spot trading means you buy the asset itself at the current price, whereas a futures contract tracks price under contract terms rather than giving direct ownership.
In traditional spot trading, buying a share or commodity involves a complex chain of custody, legal ownership transfer, and T+2 settlement cycles. This infrastructure requires banks and clearinghouses to be open, which is why trading halts on weekends and holidays.
A futures contract is a derivative, an agreement based on the price of an asset, not the exchange of the asset itself. Because of this, there is no physical action or need for a transfer in the event of a closed exchange market.
When the market closes, only the conventional infrastructure ceases to function; assets retain their worth. Phemex fills this gap by delivering a marketplace where price discovery and risk management continue uninterrupted.
Macro News Don’t Wait for Monday
Traditional finance (TradFi) and cryptocurrency markets are increasingly moving in the same direction. As crypto trading has matured, digital asset prices have become more closely linked to macroeconomic indicators that have long driven equities and commodities.
Interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, inflation data, labor market reports, and geopolitical developments now influence both stock indices and major cryptocurrencies. This growing correlation has reshaped how traders think about risk, timing, and market access across asset classes.
The introduction of TradFi futures on crypto-native trading platforms allows traders to respond to macroeconomic developments in real time. Instead of waiting for traditional market hours, traders can hedge positions or manage volatility as events unfold—an approach that is increasingly central to modern risk management.
Whether it is hedging a position or capitalizing on volatility, the ability to execute trades based on real-time macro news is no longer a luxury,; it is a necessity for modern risk management.
Why TradFi Futures Matter for 24/7 Market Access
The 24/7 openness of markets, remaining functional even during holidays and non-working days, is not merely a new generation innovation; it represents the natural evolutionary progression of trading. In the traditional financial world, when the market is closed, uncertainty and suspense tend to take hold.
If a major event occurs over the weekend, traditional investors face significant gap risk, where the price jumps or drops substantially between Friday’s close and Monday’s open.
Through TradFi futures trading found on Phemex, traders can manage their positions at any time, day or night. This eliminates the waiting game that often leaves investors vulnerable to global news cycles that do not stop for bank holidays.
Unified Trading Across Crypto and TradFi Futures on a Single Platform
Phemex focuses on reducing the liquidity and access friction typical of traditional markets.
The platform offers USDT-settled derivatives linked to traditional assets such as gold, silver, and selected stocks, alongside crypto derivatives. This structure allows traders to access multiple asset classes from a single account, without opening separate brokerage relationships or navigating lengthy funding and settlement processes.
(USDT-settled derivatives mean that profits and losses are settled in USDT rather than through delivery of the underlying asset.)
Phemex operates a unified margin system, enabling the same USDT balance to be used across gold, silver, and crypto futures. Because these contracts track price rather than involve physical settlement, custody and operational complexity are reduced.
As with cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, TradFi futures can be traded with leverage, allowing traders to increase exposure and improve capital efficiency without committing the full notional amount typically required by traditional brokers. Historically, access to equities or commodities—whether via direct ownership, ETFs, or futures—often required substantial upfront capital and fragmented infrastructure.
As demand grows for continuous market access and more flexible risk management, crypto-native platforms are increasingly addressing these structural limitations. Phemex positions itself within this shift by offering infrastructure designed for continuous, multi-asset trading.
The Modern Market Is Open 24/7
Market evolution is no longer a question of if, but how. As crypto and traditional assets increasingly respond to the same macro forces, their separation at the infrastructure level has started to break down.
The objective isn’t to replicate stock exchanges on crypto platforms. It’s to build faster, more flexible systems that allow traders to access traditional asset exposure with the efficiency they expect from modern markets.
Phemex is approaching this by replacing ownership friction with futures-based access. By using price-tracking contracts rather than physical settlement, traditional assets can be traded alongside crypto within a unified, USDT-settled environment.
Moving into the second quarter of 2026, trading across asset classes from a single margin currency is no longer a differentiator; it’s becoming the baseline for how modern markets operate.
As part of the launch of its TradFi futures offering, Phemex has introduced a limited-time campaign aimed at familiarizing traders with the new product. The campaign includes a temporary zero-fee trading period, loss-protection incentives for first trades, trading leaderboards, and task-based rewards. The initiative is designed to support early adoption and allow traders to explore TradFi futures within a controlled, risk-aware framework.
The Monero price is down about 2% over the past 24 hours and nearly 31% over the past month. Since peaking near $799 in mid-January, XMR has already fallen more than 65%. A rebound followed the drop to $276, pushing the price back toward the $330 area. At first glance, this looked like stabilization after heavy selling.
But a closer look tells a different story.
Bear Flag and Moving Averages Show the Downtrend Is Still Intact
On the daily chart, Monero is trading inside a bear flag structure.
A bear flag forms when the price drops sharply and then moves sideways or slightly higher in a narrow range. This pattern usually represents a pause before another decline, not a trend reversal. In XMR’s case, the fall from $799 to $276 created the flagpole. The recent XMR price consolidation is forming a flag.
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As long as the price remains inside this range, the dominant trend stays bearish. A breakdown below the lower boundary would likely trigger another major leg lower.
Trend indicators are reinforcing this view.
Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, are weighted price averages that give more importance to recent data. They help identify whether momentum is strengthening or weakening. When shorter-term EMAs fall below longer-term EMAs, it signals deteriorating trend strength.
Right now, Monero’s 50-day EMA is moving toward the 100-day EMA. At the same time, the 20-day EMA is drifting toward the 200-day EMA.
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These developing bearish crossovers suggest that short-term momentum continues to weaken relative to the broader trend. If these looming crossovers confirm while the XMR price flirts with the lower trendline of the flag, the breakdown theory would likely get validated.
Spot Flows Show Rebounds Are Being Used to Exit, Not Accumulate?
Exchange flow data reveals how investors are behaving during this consolidation.
In early February, Monero briefly showed strong outflows (buying pressure). During the week ending February 2, net outflows reached about $7.1 million. This suggested that some buyers were stepping in after the crash.
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But this support faded quickly.
By the week ending February 9, flows flipped to net inflows of around $768,000. More XMR was moving back onto exchanges than leaving them. This shift happened while the price dipped to $276 and then rebounded to the $327 zone.
This tells an important story. As soon as the price bounced, selling possibly resumed. Instead of holding for a recovery, many investors possibly used the rebound to reduce exposure. Loss exits replaced by accumulation.
When outflows turn into inflows during consolidation, it usually signals distribution. Supply is returning to the market. Without steady spot demand, rallies struggle to survive. This also explains why recent recoveries have been shallow. Buyers are not strong enough to absorb the returning supply.
With spot demand fading, the burden shifts to derivatives traders. But derivatives data show growing caution.
Falling Open Interest and Weak Funding Limit the XMR Recovery Potential
Derivatives markets provide insight into trader confidence and leverage. Open interest measures the total value of active futures contracts. Rising open interest shows that traders are building positions. Falling open interest shows that traders are closing positions and stepping away.
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In mid-January, Monero’s open interest stood near $279 million. By February 10, it had dropped to around $110 million. This represents a decline of more than 60%.
Such a sharp drop indicates that leverage is leaving the market. Traders are reducing risk rather than preparing for a major rebound.
At the same time, funding rates remain mildly positive. Funding rates reflect the cost traders pay to hold futures positions. When funding is positive, long traders are dominant. When it is negative, short traders dominate.
XMR’s funding remains slightly positive, meaning most remaining traders still lean bullish. But without rising open interest, this bias lacks conviction.
This combination is weak. Fewer traders are participating, yet optimism has not fully reset. It also limits the chance of a short squeeze. A short squeeze requires heavy bearish positioning. Without that pressure, upside accelerations are unlikely.
With leverage shrinking and spot buyers hesitant, the price lacks fuel for sustained recovery.
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Why $150 Is Becoming Key Target for the Monero Price
With technical, spot, and derivatives signals aligned, downside levels become increasingly important.
The first major support sits near $314. This area aligns with recent lows and the lower boundary of the bear flag. A decisive break below it would likely confirm continuation lower.
If $314 fails, downside opens quickly.
The next major demand zone is near $150, according to a key Fibonacci retracement level. A move from current levels toward $150 would represent another drop of more than 50%, consistent with the size of the first decline.
Below $150, deeper levels such as $114 and $88 exist. But $150 stands out as the first major zone where long-term buyers may realistically reappear, thanks to its psychological significance. That is why it has become the primary downside reference point.
For now, Monero remains trapped between weak demand and persistent supply. The bear flag shows consolidation, not recovery. Spot flows show selling, not accumulation. Open interest shows retreat, not confidence. Funding shows optimism without commitment.
To weaken and invalidate the bearish pattern, the Monero price must close above $350 and $532, respectively, on a daily candle close.
Institutional crypto exchange provider LMAX Group has unveiled Omnia Exchange, designed to allow users to seamlessly convert FX, crypto, stablecoins and other digital assets in one platform, the company said on Tuesday.
Described as a “a unified multi-asset infrastructure layer,” Omnia allows users to trade any asset directly against any other 24/7, without restrictions on size or type, and to settle on traditional rails or instantly on the blockchain, according to a press release.
LMAX’s cryptocurrency-focused business has long been a major player when it comes to institutional crypto trading, reporting $8.2 trillion in institutional volume last year.
Whereas LMAX Digital is an institutional crypto execution venue and custodian, focused on crypto-FX pairs, Omnia aims to bring FX, crypto, stablecoins and other digital assets under one roof, allowing any asset to be traded directly against any other (not just crypto vs fiat), a spokesperson for LMAX said via email.
LMAX CEO David Mercer said Omnia “crosses the rubicon” between traditional markets and digital marketplaces.
“Omnia Exchange is the foundation for a new paradigm in capital markets delivering the ability for institutions to exchange any asset, anytime, anywhere,” Mercer said in a statement. “By opening access to wholesale FX and digital asset markets globally, we’re removing barriers, reducing friction and unlocking liquidity. Institutions can exchange value as simply as sending a message, creating hyper-efficient capital.”
A recent deal between LMAX Group and Ripple to integrate the latter’s RLUSD reflects broader momentum behind stablecoins as tools for institutional market access, not just crypto-native use.
Let’s have a look at some numbers and try to understand where is the XRP price headed this week.
XRP returns above $1.4, but can it hold there?
Ripple (XRP) Price Predictions: Analysis
Key support levels: $1.4, $1
Key resistance levels: $1.6
XRP Price Reclaims $1.4
After the massive drop last Thursday, XRP recovered somewhat and returned above the support at $1.4. If this key level holds, buyers could retest the $1.6 resistance level in the future. Any failure there could see the price resume its downtrend.
Sellers Dominate
A review of the volume shows that sellers have been dominating since late December on the weekly chart. Worst, the selling volume has accelerated in early February, showing no signs of a change. However, increased sales volume could be the first step towards finding a bottom.
Daily RSI Bounces from Oversold Area
During the crash last week, the daily RSI reached 17 points, falling deep into the oversold area. Since then, this indicator snapped back above 30. As long as the daily RSI is under 50, the bias leans bearish.
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US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended a tentative rebound after attracting $371 million in net inflows last Friday, adding to signs that institutional demand may be stabilizing following weeks of sustained selling.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs attracted a further $145 million in inflows on Monday as BTC hovered around $70,000, according to data from SoSoValue and CoinGecko.
The inflows have yet to offset last week’s $318 million of outflows and $1.9 billion in redemptions year-to-date, but the slowing pace of losses may point to a potential trend reversal for crypto investment products, according to CoinShares.
“Outflows slowed sharply to $187 million despite heavy price pressure, with the deceleration in flows historically signaling a potential inflection point,” CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill said in an update on Monday.
Early Bitcoin holders unfazed by institutional inflows, Bitwise says
Bitcoin’s growing institutional presence has not driven early investors out of the market, according to a senior executive at asset manager Bitwise, even as the ETF saw heavy outflows during the latest crypto sell-off that pushed BTC back toward October 2024 price levels.
Analysts at research firm Bernstein described the recent downturn as the “weakest bear case” in Bitcoin’s history, noting the absence of major industry failures typically associated with deeper crypto market stress.
Related: Only 10K Bitcoin at quantum risk and worth attacking, CoinShares claims
With no clear single catalyst behind the decline, some market watchers have linked the volatility to Bitcoin’s increasing institutionalization, including ETFs, and concerns that broader financialization could dilute the asset’s scarcity narrative.
Still, that shift has not meaningfully deterred early adopters, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in comments to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Hougan acknowledged that a “cypherpunk, libertarian OG core” of Bitcoin supporters may be uncomfortable with the growing influence of large asset managers such as BlackRock, but described that group as a “shrinking minority.”
Many early investors are instead taking partial profits after large gains rather than exiting the market altogether, he said, adding that most remain invested even as new institutional buyers enter the space.
“They invested a few thousand dollars and ended up with millions,” Hougan said, adding:
“The vast majority are still in it, and they’re being augmented by new institutional investors. I think the story that most of OG crypto is giving up on the space just doesn’t align with the people that we talk to with the investors that are working with Bitwise.”
In line with a rebound in Bitcoin ETFs, spot altcoin ETFs also posted gains on Monday, with Ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) seeing inflows of $57 million and $6.3 million, respectively, according to SoSoValue data.
Magazine: Bitcoin difficulty plunges, Buterin sells off Ethereum: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 1 – 7
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has escalated scrutiny of major cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb following an unprecedented operational mistake in which the firm accidentally credited customers with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin.
Summary
- South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has launched a full-scale investigation into Bithumb following a massive $43 billion Bitcoin “fat-finger” error.
- The incident stemmed from an internal operational mistake that temporarily credited users with Bitcoin far exceeding the exchange’s actual holdings.
- Regulators are examining Bithumb’s internal controls and IT systems, with potential penalties possible if violations are confirmed.
The investigation follows a striking error on February 6, 2026, when Bithumb, during a routine promotional event, inadvertently distributed 620,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $40 billion to $44 billion at market prices, to users instead of the intended small cash rewards.
The mishap stemmed from an employee inputting payouts in Bitcoin (BTC) units rather than Korean won, leading to an explosion of overissued Bitcoin credits before the mistake was detected.
What happened in the Bithumb mistake
In a “Random Box” promotion designed to reward users with modest cash amounts, Bithumb’s payout system mistakenly issued Bitcoin due to a unit entry error, resulting in the colossal overshoot.
Within minutes, hundreds of users found massive sums of Bitcoin in their accounts, equivalent to 13–14 times Bithumb’s actual BTC holdings based on industry estimates.
The exchange acted swiftly to freeze affected accounts and block trading and withdrawals within about 35 minutes, recovering the vast majority of the missent tokens. Still, a small portion, representing millions in value, was sold or withdrawn before the controls took effect.
FSS investigation and regulatory response
Initially launching an emergency review, the FSS escalated its examination to a full-scale formal investigation. Bithumb was notified of the probe signalling a deep dive into what went wrong and whether internal controls violated the Virtual Asset User Protection Act or other regulatory standards.
FSS Governor Lee Chan-jin has emphasized that the episode revealed systemic weaknesses in internal control and electronic ledger systems at the exchange. Regulators are examining how an exchange with far fewer actual reserves was able to record and disburse phantom Bitcoin balances so rapidly.
Depending on what investigators find, the probe could lead to sanctions against Bithumb, including fines or even suspension of operations if negligence or legal violations are confirmed. The FSS has also noted that users who sold erroneously credited Bitcoin may be legally obligated to return it as unjust enrichment under current interpretations of Korean law.
Chainlink (CRYPTO: LINK) co-founder Sergey Nazarov argues that the current crypto downturn is not a replay of previous bear markets. Speaking on X on Tuesday, Nazarov noted that there have been no FTX-style collapses this time and pointed to a persistent wave of tokenized real-world assets that continues to grow despite price declines. Crypto market capitalization has fallen about 44% from its October all-time high of $4.4 trillion, with roughly $2 trillion leaving the space in just four months. He frames the cycle as a test of the industry’s progress: cycles reveal how far the ecosystem has advanced, and this downturn is exposing both resilience and a real-world asset narrative that could outlast speculative pricing.
Key takeaways
- The downturn lacks a single systemic event comparable to FTX-era collapses, suggesting improved risk management across institutions.
- Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are expanding on-chain, signaling a use case beyond mere price speculation.
- On-chain perpetuals and asset tokenization offer 24/7 markets, on-chain collateral, and real-time data that could drive institutional adoption.
- Chainlink’s credibility as a backbone for on-chain RWAs remains intact even as the broader market experiences weakness.
- Analysts and industry observers see a bifurcation between crypto prices and the growth trajectory of on-chain RWAs, potentially reshaping the industry’s value proposition.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $LINK
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Negative. A broad sell-off and outflows have pressured prices and market capitalization, even as on-chain RWA activity trends higher.
Market context: The current cycle unfolds amid a shifting risk environment, macro uncertainty, and ongoing debates about liquidity and regulation that influence both crypto assets and tokenized RWAs.
Why it matters
The argument that the bear market is not a monolithic crash but a spectrum of dynamics matters because it reframes what investors should watch. Nazarov emphasizes that the absence of large, systemic failures this cycle points to improved risk controls and more mature market infrastructure. In practical terms, this could translate into steadier liquidity provision, fewer cascading liquidations, and greater confidence in deploying capital through on-chain channels rather than off-ramp exits.
Central to this narrative is the acceleration of RWA tokenization. According to RWA.xyz, tokenized RWAs on-chain have surged by about 300% over the past 12 months, underscoring a use case that can prosper irrespective of crypto price cycles. The implication is clear: real-world assets—ranging from securitized notes to commodity-linked contracts—are becoming meaningful, on-chain stores of value and collateral concepts, not merely speculative bets. This trend could feed into broader institutional demand, as on-chain mechanisms offer transparency, auditability, and cross-border settlement capabilities that traditional markets take days or weeks to deliver.
Yet the market’s performance remains tethered to macro and sector-specific catalysts. LINK, the token associated with pricing data and oracle services, has faced sustained weakness, trading in bear-market territory after peaking earlier in the cycle. The dynamic illustrates a decoupling: while RWAs push forward in practical utility, the crypto market, including major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, can diverge for periods where macro sentiment dominates. In this context, on-chain RWAs could gradually displace some narrative weight away from pure price action toward real-world utility and risk-adjusted capital formation.
Institutional involvement is widely anticipated to hinge on the utility of these on-chain structures. Nazarov argues that the combination of perpetual markets, tokenized assets, and robust on-chain collateral is creating a more resilient foundation for institutions to experiment with crypto-enabled finance. The broader ecosystem benefits from infrastructure upgrades that enable risk management, settlement, and governance in a transparent, programmable environment. The takeaway is not that crypto prices must explode to prove value, but that the underlying systems—the oracles, the data streams, and the contractual primitives—are becoming indispensable to professional finance.
As markets digest these developments, some observers emphasize that the current sell-off is driven by factors outside the crypto sector. Analysts have framed the move as a wider market concern about AI equities, liquidity expectations under a potentially tighter policy regime, and shifts in liquidity leadership. While these external pressures complicate the price narrative, the on-chain RWA ecosystem appears to be advancing on its own trajectory, aligned with broader fintech adoption and cross-chain interoperability goals.
“If these trends continue, I believe what I have been saying for years will happen; on-chain RWAs will surpass cryptocurrency in the total value in our industry, and what our industry is about will fundamentally change.”
Not all bear markets are equal
Industry observers have framed this downturn as potentially less damaging to the core ecosystem than prior cycles. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani described the Bitcoin bear case as historically weak, suggesting that the price action reflects a crisis of confidence rather than a structural breakdown. “The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence. Nothing broke, no skeletons will show up,” the note said. The takeaway is that the macro environment, not just isolated crypto incidents, is weighing on sentiment.
Other voices emphasize a more nuanced picture. For instance, market participants note that macro catalysts—ranging from interest-rate expectations to tech-sector dynamics—have a disproportionate influence on crypto pricing versus on-chain activity. The sell-off has been described as being driven more by non-crypto catalysts than by internal systemic failures within the crypto space, a distinction that could support a faster reacceleration should risk appetite improve and liquidity return.
Market context
Against the backdrop of a 44% drawdown in crypto market cap from the October peak and substantial outflows, the story of RWAs on-chain remains a central pillar of longer-term value propositions in crypto. The dynamic underscores a broader trend toward tokenization and on-chain finance as mainstream infrastructure projects mature. If on-chain RWAs continue to gain traction, the sector could reorient investor attention toward scalable, real-world use cases, rather than relying solely on volatility-driven appetite for purely digital assets.
Why it matters
For builders, the message is clear: investing in robust on-chain infrastructure for RWAs—oracle reliability, settlement speed, and secure collateral mechanisms—could yield enduring demand. For investors, RWAs offer a potential hedge against crypto-price cycles by anchoring value in tangible, off-chain assets. For the market, the continued growth of RWAs may redefine what constitutes “crypto value,” expanding the spectrum of investable instruments and potentially attracting traditional finance players to participate in a more regulated, verifiable on-chain ecosystem.
What to watch next
- Updates from RWA.xyz on on-chain RWAs growth metrics and new asset classes tokenized on-chain.
- Institutional pilots adopting on-chain perpetuals and RWA-backed collateral frameworks.
- Regulatory developments affecting tokenized real-world assets and oracle data provisioning.
- Cross-chain integrations that improve liquidity, settling quickly, and governance for RWAs.
Sources & verification
- Sergey Nazarov’s X post discussing bear-market dynamics and RWAs growth.
- RWA.xyz data showing on-chain RWA value growth (about 300% YoY).
- LINK price/index coverage referenced in market commentary.
- Bernstein note on Bitcoin bear-case context.
- Wemade KRW stablecoin alliance with Chainlink coverage.
RWA momentum and a reshaping crypto market
Chainlink’s foundational role in powering on-chain RWAs remains a consistent thread as the sector charts its next phase. The on-chain RWA narrative is supported by observable growth metrics and a steady flow of products that enable real-world assets to exist, trade, and collateralize on-chain. While price action can swing with global liquidity and risk sentiment, the underlying technology stack—secure oracles, robust data feeds, and programmable contracts—continues to attract the interest of developers, institutions, and asset issuers alike. The broader question is whether on-chain RWAs will eventually carry a larger share of industry value than speculative crypto assets, a shift Nazarov has been vocal about predicting for years.
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has slipped into a zone that market watchers associate with capitulation, as on-chain signals flash bearish, yet opt for caution on whether a definitive bottom is in place. The focal point is the MVRV Z-Score, a gauge that compares current market value to the realized value, effectively measuring how much investors are paying relative to the price at which Ether last moved. A reading around -0.42 indicates Ether is trading below its realized value, a sign historically linked to stress but not a sole predictor of a lasting bottom. While some analysts argue this signals a clear capitulation phase, others warn that the current slide may not reach the extremes observed in past bear markets.
The MVRV Z-Score was designed to flag phases of euphoria or capitulation by showing when market value diverges markedly from realized value. In practice, a notably negative score has preceded bottoming behavior in prior cycles, albeit without a guaranteed timetable. Joao Wedson, a crypto Quant analyst and founder of Alphractal, described the current reading as “showing that Ethereum is indeed going through a clear capitulation process.” Yet, he cautioned that today’s data do not match the intensity of the 2018 and 2022 bear-market lows. The record low for the metric sits at -0.76, observed in December 2018, underscoring the scale of the slide that would be needed for a historical parallel.
The near-term horizon, however, remains contested. Wedson noted that further downside is possible before any sustained recovery takes hold, citing continued market stress and the possibility of liquidity constraints during tax season. “The market is already under stress, but historically, there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is formed,” he said. Ether’s price action has been volatile, with a sharp decline followed by a tentative rebound, complicating the call on whether the capitulation phase is nearing its end.
The recent price action has been punishing: Ether has fallen about 30% over the past two weeks, sinking to a bear-market low near $1,825 on a Friday before a modest rebound to roughly $2,100 on the following Monday. The moves come amid broader macro fragility and shifting risk sentiment within crypto markets, prompting both caution and opportunism among analysts. Some traders and researchers see this as a rare “buy fear” window, while others warn that risk remains elevated until on-chain dynamics confirm a bottom.
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that historical performance has reinforced the view that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score can be a reliable indicator for identifying bottoming zones, particularly when combined with evolving on-chain activity and long-term ecosystem development. “Judging by on-chain activity, protocol evolution, and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum’s fundamentals have not seen any substantive deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve across several key dimensions,” he said. Still, Sun stressed that current trajectories could change if the primary drivers of decline persist, suggesting that a definitive bottom remains contingent on future liquidity and demand signals.
Meanwhile, other observers offered a more optimistic read. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, argued that the drawdown presents a rare opportunity to consider ETH as an investable bet, noting a substantial gap between the current price and the “fair price” implied by the MVRV ratio. “I think that this is a tremendous opportunity to be looking at ETH,” he tweeted, positing that negative deviations historically precede substantial recoveries when macro and on-chain conditions align. The narrative held that Ether’s network metrics and the broader ecosystem strength underpin a case for accumulation once the weak hands have been flushed out.
Other voices joined the chorus of potential catalysts for a rebound. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Bitrue’s research lead, suggested that persistent negative MVRV zones have historically preceded strong recoveries in subsequent cycles. He contended that ETH’s network fundamentals remained robust and that a long-term accumulation stance could emerge once price risk subsides. “Brutal capitulation now, but historically one of the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH,” Adziima said, underscoring the tension between near-term price action and longer-term structural factors.
Market participants acknowledged that the current pullback may be overshadowed by longer-term catalysts such as network upgrades and continued ecosystem maturation, even as price action remains sensitive to near-term liquidity and macro dynamics. The narrative that “buying fear” can yield outsized returns if followed by demand recovery continues to gain traction among several traders, though it remains balanced by caution regarding April liquidity and potential tax-related squeezes.
One of the best “buy fear” windows for Ether
Despite the caution, several observers argued that the current environment could present one of the more compelling entry points for ETH in recent memory. Van de Poppe’s commentary echoed a view shared by others that a sharp deviation below fair value can precede a robust rebound when demand returns and on-chain indicators resume strengthening. The notion is that ETH’s price could be primed for a longer-term recovery even if the immediate path remains choppy.
As the debate continues, sentiment remains nuanced. Some participants emphasize that negative MVRV conditions have historically aligned with durable recoveries once the weak hands capitulate, while others warn that liquidity constraints around the April tax season could delay any sustained recovery. The balance between on-chain fundamentals and macro stressors will likely shape Ether’s trajectory over the coming weeks and into the next quarter.
For investors watching the tape, the key takeaway is that volatility may persist even as underlying fundamentals show resilience. The combination of a negative MVRV reading and persistent price pressure suggests that any bottoming process will require a convergence of favorable liquidity and sustained demand, rather than a simple technical bounce.
Why it matters
The ongoing discussion around Ether’s valuation and bottoming prospects matters for multiple stakeholders. For traders, MVRV-based indicators provide a framework to interpret on-chain signals amid price volatility, while investors may view the current setup as an opportunity to accumulate at a discount relative to realized value. For developers and ecosystem participants, the narrative about Ethereum’s fundamentals—network activity, upgrade timelines, and long-term growth—matters for capital allocation, governance engagement, and potential product developments that could draw renewed user interest.
From a market-wide perspective, Ethereum’s fate remains a bellwether for risk appetite in crypto markets. A clear bottom in ETH could bolster sentiment across altcoins and contribute to a broader risk-on environment, while a protracted drawdown could reinforce caution and delay recovery for other assets. In either case, the episode underscores the importance of on-chain metrics as a corroborating lens for price action, beyond headlines and short-term moves.
What to watch next
- Monitor liquidity conditions around the April tax season for potential downside or relief catalysts.
- Track on-chain indicators related to MVRV Z-Score and general network activity to assess whether a structural bottom forms.
- Watch for sustained price stabilization above recent lows and any acceleration in demand signals that could precede a rebound.
- Observe broader macro factors and crypto market flows that could influence risk sentiment and capital allocation.
Sources & verification
- On-chain MVRV Z-Score interpretation and commentary by Joao Wedson of Alphractal (tweet/status referenced in the article).
- Cointelegraph reports on Ether’s 30% decline over a two-week period and the subsequent move to around $2,100.
- HashKey Group insights from Tim Sun regarding MVRV Z-Score reliability and Ethereum fundamentals.
- Industry commentary from Michaël van de Poppe and Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima on negative MVRV zones and potential buy opportunities.
For the first time in nearly a month, U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded back-to-back net inflows, snapping a redemption streak that stretched back to mid-January.
According to SoSo value data, the consecutive inflows shift began on Friday with $471.1 million in fresh capital, followed by a $144.9 million on Monday. This comes as bitcoin bounced back from Thursday’s $60,000 low to around $70,000.
In mid-January, bitcoin peaked near $98,000 after a two week rally that started at $87,000. The subsequent sell-off to $60,000 saw investors yank millions of these spot ETFs.
Broadly speaking, investors still appear confidence about the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects, as evident from the spot ETFs’ resilient asset under management (AUM).
According to Checkonchain, the cumulative AUM of the 11 funds has only decreased by about 7% since early October, sliding from 1.37 million BTC to 1.29 million BTC. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is down over 40% since hitting record highs above 126,000 in October.
Ethereum has hit a zone typically associated with mass selling, with an MVRV Z-Score returning a score of -0.42 — though analysts are split on whether the price of Ether is close to bottoming out.
The MVRV Z-Score is a metric used to assess whether a crypto asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market value to its realized value, which reflects the total value of Ether based on the price at which it was last transacted.
The metric was created to identify periods of market euphoria or capitulation when market value was considerably higher or lower than realized value.
CryptoQuant analyst and Alphractal founder and CEO, Joao Wedson, said the score “shows that Ethereum is indeed going through a clear capitulation process.”
However, the analyst said the data “does not compare to the intensity” seen at the major bottoms of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
The lowest value in history was -0.76, recorded in December 2018, said Wedson.
Further downsides for ETH prices possible
The analyst cautioned that further downsides could be possible before any meaningful recovery.
“The market is already under stress, but historically, there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is formed,” he said.
The price of Ether has fallen 30% over the past fortnight, reaching a bear market low of $1,825 on Friday before a minor recovery to $2,100 on Monday.
Related: Tom Lee tips lack of leverage and gold ‘vortex’ for Ether’s 21% slump
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that historically, Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score “has proven to be a highly reliable indicator for tracking subsequent market shifts, particularly in identifying bottoming zones across multiple cycles.”
“Judging by on-chain activity, protocol evolution, and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum’s fundamentals have not seen any substantive deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve across several key dimensions,” he said.
However, it is premature to conclude that Ether has finished its bottoming process as long as the primary drivers of the current decline persist, he added.
“Given the potential liquidity constraints associated with the upcoming April tax season, the probability of further price downside remains a significant factor.”
One of the best “buy fear” windows for Ether
Other market commentators, such as MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe, were a little more optimistic, stating, “I think that this is a tremendous opportunity to be looking at ETH.”
“The core reason for this is that there’s a massive gap to the ‘fair price,’” he said, referring to the MVRV ratio.
Ether is currently as undervalued as it was during the April 2025 crash, the June 2022 bottom after the Terra/Luna collapse, the March 2020 Covid crash, and the December 2018 bear market bottom.
“In all of those cases, this provided a tremendous buying opportunity for this particular asset.”
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at crypto trading platform Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that negative MVRV zones “have repeatedly preceded explosive recoveries in past cycles.”
“With ETH’s network metrics holding strong, it feels like a prime long-term accumulation setup once the weak hands are fully flushed,” he said.
“Brutal capitulation now, but historically one of the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH.”
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