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Is a repeat of the 2019 repo crisis brewing?

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At the end of September there was a big spike in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. This may already be putting you to sleep but it’s potentially a big deal, so please stick around.

SOFR was created to replace Libor (R.I.P.). It measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralised with US Treasuries, using actual transactions as opposed to Libor’s more manipulation-prone vibes. You can think of it as a proxy of how tight money is at any given time.

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Here you can see how SOFR generally traded around the central point of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate corridor, and fell when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September. But on the last day of the month, it suddenly spiked.

This is natural, to an extent. There’s often a bit of money tightness around the end of the quarters, and especially the end of the year, as banks are keen to look as lean as possible heading into reporting dates. So SOFR (and other measures of funding costs) will often spike a little around then.

But this was FAR bigger than normal. Here is the same chart but showing the end-of-2023 spike, and little dimples at the end of the first and second quarters.

Indeed, Bank of America’s Mark Cabana estimates that this was the single-biggest SOFR spike since Covid-19 wracked markets in early 2020, and points out it happened on record trading volumes.

Cabana says he was initially too hasty in dismissing the spike as driven by a short-term collateral shortage and unusually large amounts of window-dressing by banks. In a note published yesterday, he admits to overlooking something potentially more ominous: reserves seeping out of the banking system.

We have long believed funding markets are determined by 3 key fundamentals: cash, collateral, & dealer sheet capacity. We attributed last week’s funding spike to the latter 2 factors. We overlooked extent of cash drain in contributing to the pressure.

The increased sensitivity of cash to SOFR hints of LCLOR.

LCLOR stands for “lowest comfortable level of reserves”, and might require a bit more explanation.

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Back in ye olde times (pre 2008), the Fed set rates by managing the amount of reserves sloshing around the US monetary system. But since 2008 that has been impossible due to the amount of money pumped in through various quantitative easing programmes. That has forced the Fed to use new tools — like interest on overnight reserves — to manage rates in what economists call the “abundant reserve regime”.

But the Fed has now been engaging in reverse-QE — or “quantitative tightening” — by shrinking its balance sheet sharply since 2022.

The goal is not to get the balance sheet back to pre-2008 levels. The US economy and financial system is far larger than it was then, and the new monetary tools have worked well.

The Fed just wants to get from an “abundant” reserve regime to an “ample” or “comfortable” one. The problem is that no one really knows exactly when that happens.

As Cabana writes (with FT Alphaville’s emphasis in bold below):

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Like the macro neutral rate, LCLOR is only observed near to or after it is reached. We have long believed LCLOR is around $3-3.25tn given (1) bank willingness to compete for large time deposits (2) reserve / GDP metrics. Recent funding vol supports this.

A similar dynamic was seen in ‘19. At that time, the correlation of changes in reserves to SOFR-IORB turned similarly negative. The sensitivity of SOFR to reserves correlation signalled nearing LCLOR. We sense a similar dynamic is present today.

Unfortunately, when reserve levels drop to uncomfortable levels, we tend to find out very quickly, in unpleasant ways.

Cabana’s mention of 2019 is a reference to a repo market crisis in September that year, when the Fed missed growing hints of tightness in money markets. Eventually it forced the Federal Reserve to inject billions of dollars back into the system to prevent a broader calamity. MainFT wrote a superb explainer of the event, which you can read here.

In other words, the recent SOFR spike could be a hint that we are approaching or already in uncomfortable reserve levels, which could cause a repeat of the September 2019 repo ructions if the Fed doesn’t act preemptively to soothe stresses.

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Here are Cabana’s conclusions (his emphasis):

Repo is heart of markets. EKG measures heart rate & rhythm. Repo EKG flags shift. Cash drain has supported spike in repo. Fed should take repo pulse & sense shift. If Fed too late to diagnose, ‘19 repeat. Bottom line: stay short spreads w/Fed behind on diagnosis.

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FLYONE to launch flights from Manchester to Chisinau

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FLYONE to launch flights from Manchester to Chisinau

Twice-weekly services to Moldova’s capital will launch on 17 December, complementing the carrier’s existing flights from Luton and Stansted

Continue reading FLYONE to launch flights from Manchester to Chisinau at Business Traveller.

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Meet Han Kang, winner of 2024’s Nobel Prize for literature

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The South Korean author won 2016’s Man Booker International Prize for her novel ‘The Vegetarian’ — here’s a pick of FT reviews and interviews looking back at her other books

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What is Statutory sick leave and how much should i get?

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What is Statutory sick pay? 

Statutory sick pay (SSP) is a legal requirement in the UK which employers must adhere to, it provides financial support to employees when they are unable to work due to illness. If employees are off work for 4 consecutive days, employers must comply with SSP. 

 

What is the purpose of SSP? 

SSP is crucial to employees as it provides financial security and prevents job loss during illness. Employees will still receive the minimum level of income available whilst they are away sick, meaning they won’t have to worry about their finances or force themselves into the workforce.  

Complying with SSP also creates a healthier workplace for staff where they can reduce the spread of illness and be assured, they have the freedom to recover. This contributes to a more productive and longer-lasting workforce in the long term.  

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How much is SSP? 

You will be paid for all the working days you are off sick, except the first 3 working days which are counted as the waiting period. 

If you are eligible, you can be paid £166.75 a week SSP for up to 28 weeks of the year. 

You will be paid by your employer through the same system as your normal weekly or monthly pay. If you have multiple jobs, you may get SSP from each one.  

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SSP eligibility  

SSP is available to those working in the UK under a signed contract. Employees are eligible for 28 weeks of SSP, if you have used this amount already, you will not be provided extra.  

You must be ill for at least 3 days or more, this does include non-working days.  

You must inform your employer within their set time or within 7 days if there is no set regulation on this.  

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You could be asked to provide an appropriate fit note to show proof of illness. This can include a printed or digital note from the GP, registered nurse, physiotherapist, occupational therapist or pharmacists.  

 

What if my employer is not providing SSP? 

As an employee, you are protected by law and employers who fail to meet SSP obligations could face penalties. If your employer is not providing Statutory Sick Pay and you believe you are entitled to it, then there are steps you can take.  

First, take a look at the criteria again to confirm you are eligible for SSP, then raise the issue with your employer to ask for an explanation. If they do not resolve this themselves then you can contact HMRC for assisstance. They will investigate the situation and if your employer is in breach of their legal obligations HMRC will help you get the SSP you are owed. 

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SSP VS. Company sick pay 

While SSP can provide the minimum level of financial support for those unable to work due to illness, some employers will offer a more generous alternative, company sick pay.  

SSP is regulated by the government and there is a set amount which has to be paid to the employee if the criteria is met. However, company sick pay is a benefit offered by the individual business. This will usually cover the employee’s full salary or a higher percentage of their wages for a longer period than the SSP. The employee could receive their full salary for the first 2 weeks of illness, followed by a reduced percentage for any weeks after. 

This should be outlined in your work contract as company sick pay is an optional scheme set up by the employee.  

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Recent updates to SSP 

The BBC have reported that stronger protection for employees surrounding sick pay will be coming into action. There have been calls over the past year to increase the current SSP rate as costs of living increase. This would better support those workers living in periods of sickness without financial support. This would also include those working on a zero-hour contract as the criteria stipulates you must earn at least £123 per week.  

The government is working to improve standards including workers being entitled to SSP from their first day of sickness rather than waiting until the 4th. Additionally, they are aiming to increase the SSP rate dependent on salary. 

Ministers have said this would benefit some nine million workers who have been with their current employer for less than two years.  

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Battle for Latino voters intensifies amid population’s shift right

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This is an on-site version of the US Election Countdown newsletter. You can read the previous edition here. Sign up for free here to get it on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Email us at electioncountdown@ft.com

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today let’s talk about:

  • The fight for Latino voters

  • Google’s future under a Trump presidency

  • Inflation hanging over Harris in Michigan

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are racing to shore up support among Latino voters, a key constituency in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Both candidates will visit the two states — where Latinos make up more than 20 per cent of the population — in the coming days. Harris will take part in a Latino-focused town hall tonight on Univision, while Trump will do the same next week. Latinos make up 15 per cent of the US electorate — double their share in 2000.

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The US’s growing Latino demographic was once reliably Democratic, but it has drifted right in recent years. Pollsters say this is a result of voters’ economic concerns and growing disillusionment with the Democratic party’s leadership and policies.

Mark Jones, chair in Latin American studies at Rice University, said Harris was walking a tightrope as she wooed voters in the Midwest and Latino voters in the south-west, especially on immigration, a topic on which she has taken a stance to the right of Biden.

“The difficulty for Harris is she has to avoid any sort of messaging to the Latino community that could be counterproductive among white working-class voters and in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” he said.

Earlier this week, the Harris campaign launched an “Hombres for Harris” initiative to court Latino men, who have been attracted to Trump’s strongman rhetoric and economic ideas.

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Latino support for the vice-president currently lags Biden’s figure from four years ago: an NBC News/Telemundo poll last month found 54 per cent of Latinos backed Harris, while Biden took 59 per cent of the bloc’s vote in 2020.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

Behind the scenes

The US Department of Justice said on Tuesday that it might seek the break-up of Google to end its monopoly on search engines, a move that is unprecedented in modern US corporate history.

The US government tried to break up Microsoft in 2000, but that ruling was ultimately overturned on appeal and the tech giant settled with the business-friendly George W Bush administration.

This Google antitrust saga will be long and filled with appeals, meaning the election could impact the final outcome.

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John Kwoka, an economics professor at Northeastern University, told the FT’s Stefania Palma that DoJ officials could “go soft” in a potential appeals process, since Trump was unpredictable and Harris seemed open to a milder antitrust policy than her boss. But, he added:

Big Tech doesn’t have the deference it did five years ago from either party, so . . . some version of this will probably go ahead.

A second Trump administration might not want to undermine the Google case since it originated during the Republican’s first term. Overall, Trump might not threaten Biden’s tough antitrust policy since a new generation of populist conservatives such as his running mate JD Vance have praised Washington’s aggressive stance. Big Tech has also drawn bipartisan anger in Congress.

On Capitol Hill, progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez yesterday promised an “out and out brawl” should Harris axe Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan at the behest of Democratic donors, who has spearheaded the Biden administration’s antitrust fight.

Datapoints

Harris has a slim lead in Michigan. But she continues to be dogged by inflation, which has left its mark on voters in the crucial battleground state [free to read].

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Michigan is part of the so-called blue wall that was key to Biden’s 2020 victory. He won the state by 154,188 votes, or 2.8 percentage points. And Trump has further fed the economic discontent among the electorate while campaigning in Michigan.

Bill DeJong, owner of Alger Hardware and Rental outside of Grand Rapids, told the FT’s Colby Smith that he was “not 100 per cent there” on voting for Trump again. He didn’t like the former president’s personality or plans to deport immigrants.

But in 20 years running his store, he’d never seen prices rise the way they had in recent years, and blamed some of that on Biden’s stimulus spending:

Prior to Covid, if I had 10 items in a week’s order that I would have to raise the price for, that was a lot. During Covid, it went to three or four pages with 50 items on each. Things aren’t going up as fast any more, but I don’t think anything is coming down.”

Nelson Sanchez, chief executive of RoMan Manufacturing, said his business was also feeling the pinch, which he blamed on slow consumer demand and less business from the automotive industry.

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“We were firing on all cylinders, and then in January, it’s like somebody flipped a switch,” said Sanchez. It forced him to cut his workforce.

The vice-president leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, according to the FT’s poll tracker.

Viewpoints

  • Economist Burton Malkiel thinks tax proposals coming from both Republicans and Democrats “make little sense and would upend the principles of a fair and efficient tax system”. 

  • Screenwriter and journalist Gabriel Sherman shares the wild inside story of the Trump biopic The Apprentice.

  • We’re moving away from democracy and towards “emocracy”, in which policy debates are driven by emotions rather than evidence, writes political scientist Catherine De Vries.

  • Volatile foreign policy is undermining the US as world leaders wait out the current president until another comes along that’s more to their liking, argues Janan Ganesh. 

  • Martin Wolf explains why he thinks Trump’s trade policies would hurt the world.

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Full list of five banking changes coming before the end of the year – including Nationwide account charge hike

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Full list of five banking changes coming before the end of the year - including Nationwide account charge hike

FIVE major banking changes are coming before the end of the year including account fee increases and savings rates dropping.

Lloyds is pulling its £200 free cash switching offer in December and M&S is making some big credit card changes next month.

Five major banking changes are coming before the end of the year

1

Five major banking changes are coming before the end of the year

Meanwhile, Nationwide is lowering interest rates on a number of its savings accounts while upping the fee for one of its packaged bank accounts.

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Here are all the key changes you need to know about, and what they mean for you.

Lloyds free £200 cash switch offer ending

Lloyds launched its latest switching offer last month, offering new and existing customers up to £200 free cash.

You just have to open a Club Lloyds account and the money will be paid within three days of completing the switch.

There is a £3 monthly fee to maintain the account, however this is waived if you pay in £2,000 or more each month.

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The Club Lloyds account also opens up a host of other perks, including a 12-month Disney+ subscription, Odeon or Vue tickets and a magazine subscription.

Anyone looking to snap up the cash bonus will have to act soon though – Lloyds said customers have to switch between October 2 and December 10.

Nationwide Flex Plus account charge

Nationwide is hiking the fee on its popular FlexPlus packaged bank account from December.

The account comes with a number of perks including worldwide travel insurance, breakdown cover and preferential rates on loans and overdrafts.

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It also comes with mobile phone insurance and account holders can use their debit card abroad without having to pay non-sterling transaction fees.

Are you owed cash from your bank?

Currently, FlexPlus customers pay £13 a month or £156 a year for the benefits.

However, from December 1, the FlexPlus monthly fee will rise by £5 a month to £18 a month – or £216 a year.

This represents a £60 a year increase compared to the current fee charged for the product.

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Nationwide cutting savings rates

Nationwide is cutting interest rates on a host of its savings account from next month.

The building society is slashing rates across the board after the Bank of England dropped the base rate from 5.25% to 5% in August.

The base rate is the rate charged to high street banks which is then reflected in mortgage and savings rates.

Nationwide has said it will cut rates on 24 of its savings accounts by up to 0.20 percentage points.

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Tom Riley, Nationwide’s director of retail products, said the building society had “worked hard to limit the impact of the recent rate cut on our savers”.

Base rate (predicted) to fall

Economists are predicting the BoE will cut the base rate at its next meeting in November.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the base rate, will also meet in December.

The BoE cut interest rates to 5% in August for the first time since 2020 but has held them steady since.

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However, with inflation being held in check, Governor of the BoE Andrew Bailey has hinted it could be “more aggressive” in cutting rates.

Any drop in the base rate spells good news for mortgage holders who will see home loan rates fall.

However, it also leads to interest rates on savings accounts falling.

M&S credit card changes

M&S Bank is shaking up its Club Rewards scheme for credit card holders within weeks.

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The scheme charges customers £10 a month and opens up a host of perks including free next-day delivery and rewards points earned when using your credit card abroad.

But from November 13 these perks will be ditched and instead customers will be issued more M&S vouchers.

In an email sent to customers on October 10, M&S said it was increasing the amount of vouchers shoppers get from £65 to £120 a year following customer feedback.

Customers will also continue to earn two rewards points for every £1 spent, it said.

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How do I switch bank accounts?

SWITCHING bank accounts is a simple process and can usually be done through the Current Account Switch Service (CASS).

Dozens of high street banks and building societies are signed up – there’s a full list on CASS’ website.

Under the switching service, swapping banks should take seven working days.

You don’t have to remember to move direct debits across when moving, as this is done for you.

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All you have to do is apply for the new account you want, and the new bank will tell your existing one you’re moving.

There are a few things you can do before switching though, including choosing your switch date and transferring any old bank statements to your new account.

You should get in touch with your existing bank for any old statements.

When switching current accounts, consider what other perks might come with joining a specific bank or building society.

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Some banks offer 0% overdrafts up to a certain limit, and others might offer better rates on savings accounts.

And some banks offer free travel or mobile phone insurance with their current accounts – but these accounts might come with a monthly fee.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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US inflation fell to 2.4% in September

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US inflation fell to 2.4 per cent in September but still exceeded expectations, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter point at its next meeting in November.

Thursday’s headline figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was below August’s 2.5 per cent annual increase but above economists’ expectations of 2.3 per cent.

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The figure, the last before the November 5 presidential election, came after the Fed cut rates by a larger-than-usual half point last month amid signs that it was succeeding in its battle to tame price pressures.

After the release of the inflation data, as well as figures showing a jump in joblessness, investors increased their bets on a quarter-point cut at the November Fed meeting.

Markets were pricing in a roughly 90 per cent chance of such a cut in November following the data, compared with 80 per cent beforehand.

The interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, edged 0.03 percentage points lower to 3.98 per cent. The S&P 500 was down 0.3 per cent shortly after Wall Street’s opening bell on Thursday morning.

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Thursday’s inflation figure marked the sixth consecutive month the annual headline rate has fallen. However, once volatile items such as food and energy were stripped out, “core” inflation rose faster than expected, up 3.3 per cent in the year to September.

Economists had expected the core rate to remain at August’s 3.2 per cent.

“It’s just evidence that it’s going to be a gradual path from here to get to the Fed’s target,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at asset manager Nuveen, referring to the US central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target.

“The easy gains in disinflation are well behind us, and from here, it’s likely to be a little bit bumpier path,” he added.

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Jobless claims data on Thursday also exceeded economists’ expectations. The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance jumped to 258,000, almost 30,000 more than the forecast figure and the highest weekly increase since August 2023.

The latest numbers present a mixed picture of the world’s largest economy just weeks before voting closes.

Vice-president and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has struggled to overcome voters’ discontent about rising costs in her bid for the White House. Harris has hoped that a more benign economic backdrop of solid growth and falling interest rates will bolster her chances against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“The [inflation] number might not help the Harris campaign because voters are paying more attention to their personal experience of paying prices that went up but not back down than they pay to numbers from the government,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.

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But Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Thursday’s figures were in line with the trend that prevailed before the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine pushed up inflation, and showed continued progress in getting costs under control.

US central bankers will also be scrutinising the data as they wrestle with how quickly to lower interest rates to a “neutral” level that no longer inhibits economic growth.

Month-on-month headline inflation remained at 0.2 per cent for September, the same figure as the previous two months, overwhelmingly because of price rises for food and housing.

However, energy prices fell 1.9 per cent during the month.

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Seamus Mac Gorain, global head of rates at JPMorgan Asset Management, argued that reducing housing-related “shelter” inflation was vital if the Fed was to return inflation to its target.

While rental costs have been falling in the US for roughly a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ overall “shelter” index has continued to rise, though in September it increased just 0.2 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent the previous month.

The decline in inflation from its 2022 peak of 9.1 per cent has so far not triggered a significant weakening of the labour market, surprising many economists.

Last week’s US jobs report showed that businesses added 254,000 positions in September, far outstripping expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent after several months of increases.

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New York Fed president John Williams told the Financial Times this week that monetary policy was “well positioned” to pull off a so-called soft landing following the half-point cut, as inflation eased and the economy kept growing.

Williams said Fed officials’ projections released last month, which indicated a half-point worth of cuts to come over the two remaining meetings this year, were a “very good base case”.

Chair Jay Powell recently suggested such a reduction would be delivered through two quarter-point cuts rather than another half-point move.

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