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Russia car market growing this year

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Just Auto

Russia’s vehicle market is growing this year, according to the Moscow-based AEB Automobile Manufacturers’ Committee (a trade body that formerly represented many European brands in Russia).

The AEB said the Russian automobile market grew by 58% in January-September 2024 and by 33% in September 2024.

The AEB said total sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in September 2024 amounted to 151,491 units.

It also said sales for the first nine months of 2024 exceeded sales for the same period in 2023 by 57.6% and amounted to more than 1.2 million vehicles.

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Chairman of the Automobile Manufacturers Committee, Alexey Kalitsev said in a statement: “As the committee expected, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles kept on growing in September. As forecasted, this is largely due to the expectation of price increases amid changes in disposal fee rates and an increase in the key [interest] rate.

“A record August was followed by a very successful September, which results significantly exceeded last year’s figures.

“However, despite the success, overall sales in the third quarter did not go beyond the sales volume in the second quarter of this year. This may indicate that we are approaching a limitation of the market’s growth potential due to a decrease in purchasing power and the satisfaction of deferred demand from consumers. Most likely, the positive dynamics will continue in the coming months, butwill not be as rapid.

“The results of 9 months demonstrate that, with a high degree of probability, by the end of 2024 the market will achieve higher figures than the committee forecasted earlier.

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“To ensure further market development, government support for demand and local production will be required.”

As European countries exited Russia following Russia’s military operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent imposition of economic sanctions, Chinese OEMs have effectively replaced them in the Russian market and also started local assembly/manufacturing operations.

Soaring trailer demand

Gary Beecroft, an analyst with UK consultants CLEAR, also estimates that trailer demand has soared in Russia over the past two years. “Russia’s economy has shifted toward buying higher quantities of transport assets,” he says.

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“This has included heavy goods trailers. We estimate that overall trailer sales in Russia this year will be approaching 36,000, which compares with 24,000 in 2021, a more normal volume year for the industry.

“And again, the Chinese are filling the gaps left by Western manufacturers who previously exported to Russia – for both trucks and trailers.”

Beecroft says the main HGV trailer producers in Russia are Tonar, Grunwald and Nefaz/Kamaz.

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“Russia car market growing this year” was originally created and published by Just Auto, a GlobalData owned brand.

 


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Stretch of English coast where dinosaurs roamed – with some of the world’s best fossil hunting & Portuguese-like beaches

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The Jurassic Coast is one of the world's best fossil hunting spots

WHEN Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park hit the big screen in 1993, fictional paleontologists Alan Grant and Ellie Sattler made fossil hunting look cool.

However, Brit holidaymakers don’t need to visit a desert – or an island covered with dinosaurs – to step into Dr Grant’s fictional shoes because England is home to one of the best fossil hunting spots in the world.

The Jurassic Coast is one of the world's best fossil hunting spots

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The Jurassic Coast is one of the world’s best fossil hunting spotsCredit: Alamy
Holidaymakers will often find fossils on beaches that line the Jurassic Coast

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Holidaymakers will often find fossils on beaches that line the Jurassic CoastCredit: Getty – Contributor

Smithsonian Magazine named the Jurassic Coast as one of the best fossil-collecting sites on Earth because visitors are actively encouraged to save fossils, where possible, for research purposes.

The Jurassic Coast was also named one of the best fossil hunting spots in the UK by Countryfile.

England‘s Jurassic Coast stretches for 95 miles from East Devon to Dorset, meaning there’s lots of space for dinosaur enthusiasts – whatever the age.

Would-be paleontologists should make a beeline for Lyme Regis, which is often dubbed the Jurassic Coast’s fossil capital thanks to English fossil collector Mary Anning.

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The 19th-century paleontologist made some important discoveries, including finding the first complete ichthyosaur skeleton and the first plesiosaur skeleton

And there are still plenty of skeletons, dinosaur footprints and fossilised treasures waiting to be found, with a 6ft-long pliosaur skull found just last year.

Other prime fossil hunting spots include Kimmeridge Bay, a sheltered and secluded bay that’s a mixture of pebbles and sand.

There’s also Ringstead Bay, an unspoilt beach that’s backed by farmland and cliffs.

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At Ringstead Bay the bedrock must not be disturbed, meaning fossil hunters will need to look with the eyes rather than taking their finds home to be verified.

If you’re not much of an explorer, but still want to see traces of dinosaurs, then head to the Spyway Dinosaur Footprints.

The pretty UK beach named the best in the country

What is it like to visit the Jurassic Coast?

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ASSISTANT Travel Editor Sophie Swietochowski (centre) explains what it’s actually like to visit Durdle Door.

DESPITE the Jurassic Coast being one of the most well-known spots for rambling in the UK, it has managed to remain gloriously peaceful.

I barely passed another soul during a Sunday hike along the rugged coastal path above Durdle Door a few years back – only a herd of cows munching on the unkempt grass at the top of the cliff.

Admittedly, things grew a little busier as I approached Lulworth Cove. But that’s no surprise with a horseshoe-shaped pebble bay and turquoise waters that could rival those in the Caribbean.

Make sure to wander over to Fossil Forest while you’re here too, where you can observe ripples of an ancient sea floor within the rocks and fossilised remains of old tree stumps that date back to the dinosaur era.

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Located in Purbeck, next to a working quarry, it is easily accessible from the Priest’s Way walking path.

The footprints were made 145 million years ago when the area was covered in tropical forests and swamps, giving visitors the chance to step back in time.

The fossils were discovered in 1997 by quarrymen Kevin Keates and Trev Haysom before the site opened to the public in 2016, with the Jurassic Coast Trust occasionally running guided walks of the site.

Charmouth, a village in Dorset, is another prime location for fossil hunting.

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Make a beeline for Charmouth Beach and get booked onto a fossil hunting walk with Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre.

The 90-minute walking tour takes place outdoors where a guide helps holidaymakers search for fossils, with visitors even able to take their treasures home.

A trip to the Jurassic Coast isn’t complete without seeing Durdle Door – one of the area’s most well-known landmarks.

The natural arch was formed from a layer of hard limestone that stands almost vertically out of the sea.

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Durdle Door stands at the foot of a steep path, which is accessible from the South West Coast Path.

In the last few years, some holidaymakers have likened Durdle Door to beaches in Portugal because of its coastline and rock formations.

One person wrote on TripAdvisor: “Lulworth Cove and Durdle Door: Reminded me of the Algarve in Portugal!”

While another added: “The rocks protruding out of the sea were so pretty you would forget you’re still in England and reminded me of a trip to Portugal.”

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A third commented: “You don’t feel like you are in the UK. It seems more like Portugal or California.”

If you’re looking for somewhere to stay overnight, then the Sun’s Head of Travel recommends Durdle Door Holiday Park.

The family-owned holiday park has endless sea views as well as unrivalled access to Durdle Door.

Sun Online Travel have found touring pitches from £30 per night per pitch.

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There are plenty of other places across the Uk where dinosaur enthusiasts can get the Jurassic Park fix.

One of those places is Paradise Park in East Sussex, which is home to life-size moving dinosaurs, fossils and a Dinosaur Safari at Paradise Park.

Meanwhile, Knebworth House in Herefordshire has a dinosaur-themed adventure section.

And Combe Martin Wildlife and Dinosaur Park in North Devon has 19 animatronic dinosaurs, including a life-sized T-Rex, Dino Express train and a play zone.

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Can you get fined for taking fossils home?

WHILE some fossil hunters will simply choose to look and not touch, there will be others who will want to take their treasures home.

The rules surrounding fossils are a little grey, with holidaymakers needing to do their own research because every area is different.

According to the Natural History Museum, holidaymakers will need to make sure they have the “appropriate permission and access rights” to take fossils home.

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For example, some areas are Sites of Special Scientific Interest, which may have extra restrictions.

Guidance on the Natural History Museum website states: “Always look up and follow the rules for the specific areas you visit or those imposed by owners or controllers, which can include obtaining permission to access and collect in the area, avoiding disturbing wildlife, and recording what you found and where. In some places you can look but mustn’t collect anything.”

Meanwhile, ROARR! Dinosaur Adventure in Norfolk is set to open a new land in 2026.

Gigantosaurus Land will be based on an animated series of the same name, which currently streams worldwide on services like Netflix, Prime Video, and Disney Plus.

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Kimmeridge Bay is a popular fossil-hunting spot

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Kimmeridge Bay is a popular fossil-hunting spotCredit: Alamy
Durdle Door is a well-known rock formation on the Jurassic Coast

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Durdle Door is a well-known rock formation on the Jurassic CoastCredit: Getty

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Huawei Beats Apple in China for First Time Since 2019

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Huawei Beats Apple in China for First Time Since 2019

Analysts attribute Huawei’s resurgence to strong demand for its flagship Mate series, the Pura series, and innovative models like the foldable Mate XT.

These models have captivated local consumers, helping Huawei reclaim its top position in its home market.

China remains Huawei’s largest market, accounting for a significant 89% of the company’s global smartphone sales.

Meanwhile, overall sales of foreign smartphones in China, including Apple’s, experienced a decline.

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According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, foreign smartphone sales dropped 12.7% year-on-year to 1.87 million units in August.

In contrast, domestic brands saw a sharp 26.7% surge in sales, reaching 24.05 million units.

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Peel Hunt takes Aim at the IFS

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For a month now, UK small- and mid-cap broker Peel Hunt has been banging the drum about the potentially catastrophic effect that the removal of an inheritance tax loophole might have on London’s ever-eventful small- and mid-cap Alternative Investment Market (Aim).

Still smarting from Labour’s scrapping of the nascent “British Isa”, and with the UK Budget fast approaching, head of research Charles Hall warns that the hypothetical removal of IHT relief for AIM shares would lead to “permanent damage” to what the LSE still describes as “the world’s most successful growth market”.

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The removal of the tax incentive, which was introduced in 1996, would threaten the very “future of AIM as a functioning market”, Hall added in a note on Thursday (with our emphasis):

We see material downside risk for AIM form removing IHT relief. Moreover, our forecasts show a net tax reduction to the Exchequer of £2.6bn, rising to £3.2bn . . .

We see an impact on the AIM market of 20-30% if [Business Property Relief, which can be passed on sans IHT upon the death of the investor] is removed, crystallising a loss of value [of] £14-21bn to UK shareholders, resulting in a permanent destruction of spending power.

Here are their numbers:

© Peel Hunt

Other projections are available. Hall admits as much while taking a swipe at the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, two of which’s academics — Arun Advani and David Sturrock — think scrapping the relief would actually raise tax intake by more than £1bn.

Here’s Hall:

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There have been several reports suggesting that removing [Business Property Relief, which can be passed on free from IHT upon the death of an investor] from AIM shares would be tax enhancing. Notably, the IFS suggested a £1.1bn increase in tax, rising to £1.6bn per annum. We believe these numbers are flawed for numerous reasons, and estimate a material reduction in tax revenue.

Back in May, Advani and Sturrock wrote that IHT relief “distorts investment choices towards these types of shares, particularly for older people seeking to minimise their inheritance tax liability”. From their article:

Revenue implications: We estimate that the removal of business relief for AIM shares could raise around £1.1 billion in the current tax year, rising to £1.6 billion in 2029—30. This could be an underestimate, since business relief on AIM shares is used very heavily by trusts, for which no direct statistics are available. If those currently using AIM shares to avoid inheritance tax would respond to its removal by using other avoidance strategies, the amounts raised could be lower, though.

Hall was in a fighting mood this morning, writing of the IFS’s £1.1bn: “We do not recognise this number”.

So we asked the IFS’ Advani what he made of Hall’s assessment. Unsurprisingly, he stood by his own figures while taking a swipe of his own at PH’s:

I don’t believe [Peel Hunt’s] assertion that the hit to AIM would be 20 to 30 per cent. It’s not necessarily wrong, but it’s a statement without any underlying evidence. I wouldn’t put much weight on it as I don’t know how they got there . . . 

The upfront cost of this relief is £1.1bn. If you spend that money on something else, direct public spending, whatever. That has positive effects for jobs elsewhere etc.

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It seems like a very partial way to look at the world to say if you take away this relief, that jobs would go [PH notes that AIM companies are responsible for close to 800,000 employees]. Hall seems to have ignored the other side of the equation. We ignored both. We’re not burning this money, it’d be spent on something tangible.

I’m all for supporting investment. I just think this is the wrong place to do it.

Advani also points out that unlike other targeted tax reliefs (Enterprise Investment Scheme, Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme, Venture Capital Trusts), “the current design of BR does not do anything to explicitly focus investment into companies which are expected to be high-return”.

Aim might not be helped by the removal of the incentive. But its problems — namely a dearth of flotations, high costs and burdensome listing requirements — run far deeper than anything that maintaining IHT relief might fix. Either way, the ball is now back in Peel Hunt’s court. Or, we suppose, in Rachel Reeves’.

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Further reading:
Peel Hunt’s cunning plan
How to fix London’s markets (if you get a chance, no worries if not)
Meanwhile, on AIM (FTAV)
Number of Aim-quoted groups drops to 22-year low in blow to London (FT)

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Six stocking filler perfume dupes from B&M, Lidl and more – starting from £2.49 and can save you £336 this Christmas

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Six stocking filler perfume dupes from B&M, Lidl and more - starting from £2.49 and can save you £336 this Christmas

SAVVY shoppers can save up to £336 this Christmas with stocking filler perfume dupes starting at just £2.49.

Christmas is fast approaching, and if you’re looking to spoil your loved ones without breaking the bank, we’ve got the perfect stocking fillers for you.

Shoppers can save themselves up to £336 this Christmas as we reveal the best perfume dupes

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Shoppers can save themselves up to £336 this Christmas as we reveal the best perfume dupes

High-end perfumes might be a dream for some, but we’ve rounded up six incredible dupes that smell just like the real deal – for a fraction of the price.

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From B&M to Poundland, here’s how you can bag luxurious scents for less this festive season.

Missy G.G. Body Mist – £2.49 at B&M

Missy G.G Body Mist is a dupe of the Good Girl Body Spray

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Missy G.G Body Mist is a dupe of the Good Girl Body Spray

Top of our list is the Missy G.G Body Mist that shoppers can snap up at B&M for just £2.49.

This fruity body mist has been making waves as a dead ringer for the iconic Good Girl Body Spray which retails for £47, saving you £44.51 – that’s 90% cheaper.

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Shoppers are raving about it as the perfect dupe – and at just £2.49, it’s an absolute steal.

The bargain find was spotted in store and shared on social media by a happy shopper.

She posted a picture of the bottle with the caption: “Carolina Herrera good girl body spray dupe £2.49 from B&M smells exactly the same as the original it’s beautiful.”

It can be purchased in-store but you can’t buy online

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Pink Plush – £4 at Poundland

Pink Plush is a great Poundland dupe for the Moschino Toy 2 Bubble gum perfume

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Pink Plush is a great Poundland dupe for the Moschino Toy 2 Bubble gum perfume

Next up is Pink Plush from Poundland, priced at only £4.

It’s a fantastic dupe for Moschino Toy 2 Bubblegum, which would set you back £43 at The Perfume Shop.

With a saving of £39, or 91%, Pink Plush offers a sweet, bubble-gum-like scent that’s playful and fun.

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You can find it in-store at Poundland, making it an ideal budget-friendly option for Christmas gifts.

Quartz – £4 at Poundland

The Quartz fragrance at Poundland is a good dupe for those after Paco Rabbane Fame

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The Quartz fragrance at Poundland is a good dupe for those after Paco Rabbane Fame

For those who love Paco Rabanne Fame, the Quartz fragrance from Poundland is a must-have.

Filled inside a fun silver robot, Poundland’s Platinum Pour Homme is a more affordable dupe of the posh scent that retails for close to £70 at The Perfume Shop but is 93% cheaper at just £4.

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This saves you a whopping £74.

That’s a massive saving without sacrificing on style or fragrance quality.

The purse-friendly collection, which hit the stores recently, has already taken the internet by storm, with fans rushing to Facebook to share the news.

One shopper, Nat Fergusson, took to Poundland Appreciation Society, where she wrote: ”Some fab fragrances at only £4 each!”

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Perfect Seduction – £4 at Poundland

Perfect Seduction is a dupe for Katy Perry's Purr and is available at Poundland

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Perfect Seduction is a dupe for Katy Perry’s Purr and is available at Poundland

Another standout from Poundland is Perfect Seduction, a £4 dupe of Katy Perry’s Purr, which retails for £28 at Fragrance Direct – saving you £24.

Fans of Purr will love this affordable alternative, with its fruity and floral notes.

The adorable black cat-themed bottle is a major win in itself – so even if you don’t enjoy the scent, you’ll have a cute little home decor piece.

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You’ll pay 84% less by picking this up at your local Poundland.

For those after something more luxurious, Opulent Fizz from Poundland is another fantastic dupe for Dior J’Adore, which typically costs £94.99.

At just £4, you’re saving a whopping £90.99, or 96%, making this champagne glass-shaped perfume a true bargain.

It’s a perfect gift for anyone who loves a sophisticated scent, and it’s available in-store at Poundland.

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Good Chica Eau de Parfum – £3 at Primark

Pictured on the left is Good Chica, a Primark dupe for Carolina Herrera's Good Girl

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Pictured on the left is Good Chica, a Primark dupe for Carolina Herrera’s Good Girl

At Primark, you can find Good Chica Eau de Parfum for just £3.

This fragrance is a brilliant dupe for Carolina Herrera’s Good Girl Eau de Parfum but is 95% cheaper as Good Girl currently retails at Boots for £65, saving you £62.

With contrasting notes of jasmine, cocoa, and almond, Good Chica delivers the same bold, feminine scent at a fraction of the price.

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Are dupes worth it?

THE Sun asked an independent perfume expert to carry out blind smell tests of popular perfumes and their high street “dupes” to see if the budget versions lived up to the originals.

Noemie Maury is a senior fragrance evaluator who has worked with major fine fragrance and toiletries brands for over a decade.

High street chains can create perfumes cheaply by buying them from big fragrance manufacturers which grow their own ingredients in-house,” says Noemie.

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“Because they use oils from flowers they grow themselves instead of importing ingredients, they save on costs and can create fragrances for high street brands at a discount price.”

It means they can lack the depth and complexity of more expensive brands which use a wide variety of more expensive ingredients.

You’ll save £62, making it an affordable yet luxurious gift, available in Primark stores.

The perfume made waves on Facebook‘s infamous Extreme Couponing and Bargaining group when one user posted her lucky find.

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The savvy shopper also mentioned isn’t the only great dupe Primark has in store.

She said: “They did have others too but I can’t remember the names of them.”

Pistachio and Salted Caramel Body Spray – £5.99 at Lidl

Lidl's Pistachio and Salted Caramel spray, pictured on the left, is a dupe for Sol de Janeiro’s Brazilian Crush Cheirosa 62

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Lidl’s Pistachio and Salted Caramel spray, pictured on the left, is a dupe for Sol de Janeiro’s Brazilian Crush Cheirosa 62

Finally, Lidl’s Pistachio and Salted Caramel body spray is a favourite for those who love Sol de Janeiro’s Brazilian Crush Cheirosa 62.

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Priced at just £3.99, it’s a fantastic dupe for the cult classic, which costs £30 – making the 86 per cent cheaper.

You’ll be saving £25.01 on this tropical, sun-kissed scent that’s perfect for the holiday season.

It’s currently only available in selected stores.

You can find your local store by using the store finder tool.

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With these seven amazing dupes, you can fill those Christmas stockings without breaking the bank while still gifting luxurious scents.

Many bargain stores are starting to sell dupe alternatives of popular branded products at a hugely reduced price.

Lidl is one of the best around as dropping a number of home and beauty dupes.

Dupe hunters have unearthed Jo MaloneRitualsMolton BrownSol de Janeiro and Lush copycats in stores across the country.

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There’s even a £1.99 dupe of the coveted Jo Malone London Pomegranate Noir Body & Hand Wash.

The designer version will set you back a mammoth £36.

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Getting pensions early to pay for a house is a retirement time bomb

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This week Schroders, one of the UK’s largest asset managers, called on the Government to allow would-be first-time buyers to get early access to their pensions so they can pay for a house deposit.  

It’s not the first time such a proposal has been floated. Earlier this year, the Housing and Finance Institute (HFI) published a report arguing that young adults who want to buy homes but haven’t been able to save a deposit should be allowed to borrow from their pension pots.  

The fact this idea is catching on is worrying.  

Buying a home has become more and more difficult for young adults over the last 20 years. House prices soared above wages in the 2010s and then hit historic highs after the first Covid-19 lockdown. That has meant that the amount needed as a down payment has increased.  

The median deposit for first-time buyers as of July 2024 was £41,750.

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It’s not cheap, but there are many benefits to homeownership. 

Living in a home that you own is more secure than private renting because you can’t be evicted unless you fall into serious arrears. Repaying a mortgage also fosters financial stability because, eventually, you’ll have equity in your home and, by the end of the term, own it outright. This presents a stark contrast to private renting, where people spend tens of thousands of pounds for long periods of their lives and have nothing to show for it in the end.  

The fact that more and more young adults are locked out of homeownership presents a problem in its own way: it means they are not accruing capital or working towards owning an asset that will give them housing and economic security in old age.  

Those millennials and Gen Zs who rent into old age will be significantly worse off than those who managed to buy homes.  

It might sound sensible, then, to allow first-time buyers to take money out of their pensions and skip the part where they have to save for a deposit, which can take years.  

But it’s a highly risky idea that says more about the state of housing affordability in Britain than anything else.  

Paying money into a pension pot is an absolute necessity in modern Britain. If you don’t do it, you are much more likely to struggle in older age. The state pension is not usually enough to live on comfortably, so private pension pots are vital. Retirement might feel a long way off when you’re 25 and languishing in a mouldy flatshare, but it’s something younger people need to be thinking about and planning for.  

Indeed, a recent calculation by the Pension and Lifetime Savings Association found that a single 65-year-old would need a nest egg of £635,000, or £43,000 a year, to maintain a “comfortable” standard of living. This did not include outgoings for housing – only energy, food, clothing and a two-week holiday.  

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Building up a pension pot takes time. Encouraging young people to withdraw cash from their long-term savings attempts to fix one problem – access to homeownership – by creating another: diminishing the retirement funds of a generation.  

I spoke to two pensions experts about the fact that the idea of pension pots becoming home deposits seems to be catching on. They both raised red flags.  

Ros Altmann is a pensions policy expert and former pensions minister. In her view, it’s really important that we do not confuse “saving for a home with saving for retirement”. 

Pensions need to be saved for in a long-term way, over 30 or 40 years “in order to achieve long-term growth,” Baroness Altmann – a peer in the House of Lords – explained. “The idea you raid your pension pot along the way to buy a house undermines the purpose of the pension pot.

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“I would worry about this becoming more normal. If you start incentivising [homeownership] in this way, you could drive up house prices even more if we don’t build lots more homes.” 

Sir Steve Webb is a former pensions minister and now a partner at pensions consultancy LCP. He said that the need to make sure lots of people aren’t in precarious privately rented homes in older age needs to be balanced carefully with pension planning.  

Mr Webb cautioned that “if the rules on using pension money for house deposits are too relaxed then people might take too much out of their pension, leaving themselves seriously short in retirement.” 

There is no question that planning for retirement is about more than pension saving. There is also no question that so many young adults renting later and later in life is creating a ticking social and economic time bomb which no government has properly addressed in recent years.

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Increasing homeownership for younger adults would therefore also be a very good pensions policy. But instead of using pension pots to boost it, the Government should look at other ways to make owning your own home more affordable. That could look like an expanded mortgage guarantee scheme, or something like Help to Buy, or a fair student loan-style scheme where first-time buyers can borrow deposits. This was also suggested by the HFI in their report.  

It will be a disaster if huge numbers of those who are now 40 and under do not have homes that they can sell and draw down on in older age and, instead, are scrambling around to pay rents which keep rising – or becoming homeless if they can’t afford to. 

But it would be equally disastrous if young adults raid their pensions to become homeowners and have little left over when they retire to do anything else.

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GSK’s problem is it has more than one source of pain

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Zantac may have been a heartburn medicine but it caused one almighty headache for GSK chief executive Emma Walmsley. Finally, it looks as though that particular aggravation is clearing after GSK said late on Wednesday that it was prepared to pay up to $2.2bn to settle 93 per cent of legal cases linked to Zantac.

It still has a further 6,000 cases to either settle or defend but the resolution of 80,000 (with no admission of liability) means that GSK “becomes investable again,” said Emmanuel Papadakis of Deutsche Bank Research. Unfortunately for Walmsley, GSK has more than one source of pain.

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Zantac has played havoc with GSK shares ever since a Morgan Stanley note published in August 2022 estimated the company’s potential liability at anywhere between $3bn and $27bn. Markets assumed the worst: GSK’s market capitalisation plunged almost £13bn as a result, just after it had demerged its consumer health business Haleon.

By early this year, it had recovered to pre-August 2022 levels. But investors’ acute nervousness over Zantac was demonstrated again in early June when more than £6bn was knocked off GSK’s market cap in one day following a legal setback in Delaware, the US state that accounted for the bulk of Zantac cases.

Line chart of GSK’s market capitalisation (£bn) showing that Zantac liability fears have hampered GSK's progress

This settlement is far lower than the worst-case scenario. If anything, it was surprising that the share price reaction, up 5 per cent in response, was not more enthusiastic. That can be explained by the fact investors now have to judge GSK on its own merits — and long-standing concerns about its pipeline have not gone away.

GSK has a long-term target to improve sales to more than £38bn by 2031, versus £30.3bn in 2023. Even though this is a mere trifle compared with AstraZeneca’s 2030 $80bn sales goal, the market does not yet believe GSK can reach it. Visible Alpha estimates for GSK suggest sales at the end of 2030 of £35.7bn. A key problem is the patent expiries from 2028 on HIV medicines containing dolutegravir.

Walmsley has emphasised the group’s ability to increase vaccine sales. The plan had been going well: Arexy, its vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), quickly reached blockbuster status. But this summer, a US health committee narrowed the age recommendation for RSV vaccine use. Analysts tracking recent prescriptions of Arexy say they are down even more than expected. There is similar scepticism about whether global sales of GSK’s shingles vaccine can make up for a US slowdown.

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Walmsley can ill-afford a big celebration over the Zantac settlement. An unpleasant ache has gone for GSK. But finding a balm to alleviate pipeline doubts is a tough task indeed.

nathalie.thomas@ft.com

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