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Battle for Latino voters intensifies amid population’s shift right

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This is an on-site version of the US Election Countdown newsletter. You can read the previous edition here. Sign up for free here to get it on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Email us at electioncountdown@ft.com

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today let’s talk about:

  • The fight for Latino voters

  • Google’s future under a Trump presidency

  • Inflation hanging over Harris in Michigan

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are racing to shore up support among Latino voters, a key constituency in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Both candidates will visit the two states — where Latinos make up more than 20 per cent of the population — in the coming days. Harris will take part in a Latino-focused town hall tonight on Univision, while Trump will do the same next week. Latinos make up 15 per cent of the US electorate — double their share in 2000.

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The US’s growing Latino demographic was once reliably Democratic, but it has drifted right in recent years. Pollsters say this is a result of voters’ economic concerns and growing disillusionment with the Democratic party’s leadership and policies.

Mark Jones, chair in Latin American studies at Rice University, said Harris was walking a tightrope as she wooed voters in the Midwest and Latino voters in the south-west, especially on immigration, a topic on which she has taken a stance to the right of Biden.

“The difficulty for Harris is she has to avoid any sort of messaging to the Latino community that could be counterproductive among white working-class voters and in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” he said.

Earlier this week, the Harris campaign launched an “Hombres for Harris” initiative to court Latino men, who have been attracted to Trump’s strongman rhetoric and economic ideas.

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Latino support for the vice-president currently lags Biden’s figure from four years ago: an NBC News/Telemundo poll last month found 54 per cent of Latinos backed Harris, while Biden took 59 per cent of the bloc’s vote in 2020.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

Behind the scenes

The US Department of Justice said on Tuesday that it might seek the break-up of Google to end its monopoly on search engines, a move that is unprecedented in modern US corporate history.

The US government tried to break up Microsoft in 2000, but that ruling was ultimately overturned on appeal and the tech giant settled with the business-friendly George W Bush administration.

This Google antitrust saga will be long and filled with appeals, meaning the election could impact the final outcome.

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John Kwoka, an economics professor at Northeastern University, told the FT’s Stefania Palma that DoJ officials could “go soft” in a potential appeals process, since Trump was unpredictable and Harris seemed open to a milder antitrust policy than her boss. But, he added:

Big Tech doesn’t have the deference it did five years ago from either party, so . . . some version of this will probably go ahead.

A second Trump administration might not want to undermine the Google case since it originated during the Republican’s first term. Overall, Trump might not threaten Biden’s tough antitrust policy since a new generation of populist conservatives such as his running mate JD Vance have praised Washington’s aggressive stance. Big Tech has also drawn bipartisan anger in Congress.

On Capitol Hill, progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez yesterday promised an “out and out brawl” should Harris axe Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan at the behest of Democratic donors, who has spearheaded the Biden administration’s antitrust fight.

Datapoints

Harris has a slim lead in Michigan. But she continues to be dogged by inflation, which has left its mark on voters in the crucial battleground state [free to read].

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Michigan is part of the so-called blue wall that was key to Biden’s 2020 victory. He won the state by 154,188 votes, or 2.8 percentage points. And Trump has further fed the economic discontent among the electorate while campaigning in Michigan.

Bill DeJong, owner of Alger Hardware and Rental outside of Grand Rapids, told the FT’s Colby Smith that he was “not 100 per cent there” on voting for Trump again. He didn’t like the former president’s personality or plans to deport immigrants.

But in 20 years running his store, he’d never seen prices rise the way they had in recent years, and blamed some of that on Biden’s stimulus spending:

Prior to Covid, if I had 10 items in a week’s order that I would have to raise the price for, that was a lot. During Covid, it went to three or four pages with 50 items on each. Things aren’t going up as fast any more, but I don’t think anything is coming down.”

Nelson Sanchez, chief executive of RoMan Manufacturing, said his business was also feeling the pinch, which he blamed on slow consumer demand and less business from the automotive industry.

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“We were firing on all cylinders, and then in January, it’s like somebody flipped a switch,” said Sanchez. It forced him to cut his workforce.

The vice-president leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, according to the FT’s poll tracker.

Viewpoints

  • Economist Burton Malkiel thinks tax proposals coming from both Republicans and Democrats “make little sense and would upend the principles of a fair and efficient tax system”. 

  • Screenwriter and journalist Gabriel Sherman shares the wild inside story of the Trump biopic The Apprentice.

  • We’re moving away from democracy and towards “emocracy”, in which policy debates are driven by emotions rather than evidence, writes political scientist Catherine De Vries.

  • Volatile foreign policy is undermining the US as world leaders wait out the current president until another comes along that’s more to their liking, argues Janan Ganesh. 

  • Martin Wolf explains why he thinks Trump’s trade policies would hurt the world.

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THG shareholders have to pay for (maybe) getting rid of Ingenuity

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Last month, we wrote of THG’s plan to “demerge” its ecommerce division into private ownership: “the word for this is usually ‘disposal’”. This was incorrect. The correct phase is “hostage situation”.

Per RNS, post London close:

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Ingenuity to be demerged into a standalone independent private entity 

Target c.£75 million equity raise to facilitate the demerger, by way of a Placing and Subscription, with additional proceeds from a Retail Offer

[ . . . ]

These funds, in conjunction with appropriate standalone debt issuance plans for Ingenuity, are expected to provide Ingenuity with sufficient medium-term funding as the business approaches positive cash generation on a standalone basis

Here’s the cunning plan. Ingenuity will be hived out of the listed group and each THG shareholder will be given a choice. They can elect to take shares in unquoted Ingenuity that are more, less, or equal to the proportion of THG currently owned; or they can not.

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The £75mn+ being kicked in by THG shareholders supports an equity valuation on Ingenuity of “up to £100mn”. Spinco will also be wearing net debt up to a £307mn enterprise value, including lease liabilities, while “appropriate standalone debt issuance plans” are finalised.

However!

However, in determining the definitive Valuation, the Board anticipates also taking into account fluctuations in the market capitalisation of THG such that if, at the latest practicable date prior to the publication of the Demerger Circular, the market capitalisation of THG is:

• equal to or greater than the market capitalisation of THG at the time of completion of the Fundraise [ . . . ] then the Valuation to be used in establishing the entitlement of THG shareholders to elect to receive their respective pro rata entitlements to shares in IngenuityCo in connection with the Demerger would be expected to be £100m; or 

• less than the Post Placing Market Cap, then the Valuation to be used in establishing the entitlement of THG shareholders to elect to receive their respective pro rata entitlements to shares in IngenuityCo in connection with the Demerger would be expected to be reduced from £100m proportionately to the percentage by which the Post Placing Market Cap has declined.

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The placing is an institutional overnight bookbuild, with THG founder Matt Moulding and friends already committed to put in £33mn of the £75mn to be raised. Retail shareholders can apply to buy new shares on the same terms via PrimaryBid, with their allocation capped at €8mn.

Ingenuity’s biggest customer by far will of course be THG, with which it shares staff and office space. Other than an assurance that Ingenuity senior management will remain, there’s no information provided on how that might change. But THG’s internal checks and balances are strong enough for that not to be a concern, apparently. From the statement:

Further work is ongoing to design the appropriate governance framework for IngenuityCo. Separately, THG’s now well-established related parties committee chaired by Sue Farr, Senior Independent Director of THG will, following the Demerger, be responsible for overseeing transactions between RemainCo and IngenuityCo. Arms-length contracts between Ingenuity and each of Beauty and Nutrition have been in place since 2022, and will be expected to continue to operate post separation in the same manner as they do today. Ingenuity would have no recourse to THG post demerger.

And obviously . . . 

Whilst at this stage no certainty can be provided on the exact timescale of the Demerger, the current intention is that publication of the Demerger Circular would be in or by early November with the distribution of IngenuityCo shares being completed at or before the end of 2024.

The last complex deal involving Ingenuity put a $6.3bn valuation on the subsidiary, but didn’t quite work out. Depending where the placing is priced, this new package implies an pre-fundraise standalone value for Ingenuity three years later of between £25mn and zero. The value inside THG is, by implication, much less than zero.

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Still, it’s been quite a journey:

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Martin Lewis issues warning to anyone aged under 22 – do you have £2,000 in a forgotten account?

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Martin Lewis issues warning to anyone aged under 22 - do you have £2,000 in a forgotten account?

MARTIN Lewis has issued a warning to anyone under 22 who could have £2,000 sitting in a forgotten account.

Child Trust Funds are long-term, tax-free savings accounts which were set up for every child born between September 2002 and January 2 2011.

Martin Lewis has issued a warning to anyone under 22

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Martin Lewis has issued a warning to anyone under 22Credit: Rex

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The Money Saving Expert said on X that those aged 22 and under could have the Child Trust Fund set up and access it for free.

But he also warned that some firms are attempting to charge individuals to “get your own money” – but Lewis says “don’t pay.”

The Government deposited £250 for every child during that time period, or £500 if they came from a low income family earning around £16,000 a year or below.

An extra £250 or £500, depending on their families’ economic status, was deposited when the child turned seven.

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In 2010, this was reduced to £50 for better off households and £100 for those on a lower income.

The scheme was eventually scrapped in 2011 as part of cost-cutting measures following the 2009 financial crisis and was later replaced with Junior ISAs.

Currently, parents or friends can deposit up to £9,000 into the child’s account tax-free, with the money usually invested into shares.

The youngest children across Britian to have these accounts are about 13 years old, so have around five years before they can access the cash.

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It is important to note that savings in these accounts are not held by the Government but are held in banks, building societies or other saving providers. 

The money stays in the account until it’s withdrawn or re-invested.

Moment Martin Lewis slams ‘you’re taking money from UK’s poorest pensioners’ in fiery clash with cabinet minister on GMB

Young people can take control of their Child Trust Fund at 16, but can only withdraw funds when they turn 18 and the account matures.

However, new figures released by the HMRC have found that more than 670,000 18-22 year olds are yet to claim their Child Trust Fund.

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The tax office said that the average savings pot is worth £2,212.

Angela MacDonald, HMRC’s second permanent secretary and deputy chief executive, said the government wants to “reunite young people with their money and we’re making the process as simple as possible.”

She added: “You don’t need to pay anyone to find your Child Trust Fund for you, locate yours today by searching ‘find your Child Trust Fund’ on GOV.UK.”

How to track down a Child Trust Fund

If you were born in the UK between 2002 and 2006 it is worth checking to see if you have cash in a Child Trust Fund.

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Parents were either given a voucher to set one up or HMRC set one up on a child’s behalf.

There are a number of third party groups offering to search for Child Trust Funds but it worth noting that they will charge a fee so you might loose a chunk of your money.

The Government has a free tool you can use online to help track down your fund.

You can find this by searching for “find a Child Trust Fund” on GOV.UK.

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LOST CASH

By Charlene Young, pensions and savings expert at AJ Bell

MANY parents and children aren’t aware they even have the account, or don’t know who the money is with or how to track it down.

More than a quarter of CTF accounts were set up by the government because parents failed to do so within the 12-month window.

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This highlights why so many are unclaimed – as the parents either weren’t aware or won’t remember that an account was even set up for their child, let alone where the money is now.

Any child born between 1 September 2002 and 2 January 2011 who hasn’t already got details of their account should track it down.

Once you’ve tracked down the money you can choose what to do with it. Your options are to transfer it to an adult ISA or withdraw the money. Until then your money will just sit in an account that no one else has access to, possibly paying very high charges.

Anything you transfer to an adult ISA at maturity will not count towards your annual ISA allowance, which is £20,000 for over 18s.

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For many young people who have CTFs but are still under 18, it will make sense to transfer it to a Junior ISA, where the charges will likely be lower, and you’ll have a much bigger investment choice.

The money will still be locked up until you turn 18, but the tax-free benefits of ISA investing still apply. You can transfer the entire CTF into a Junior ISA and still add up to £9,000 to it in the same tax year.

You’ll need to have a few personal details to hand to do the search, including your date of birth and National Insurance (NI) number.

Your NI number remains the same for your entire life. It’s made up of two letters, six numbers and a final letter. 

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You can find this number on your payslips or by downloading the HMRC app, which can be downloaded on the Apple or Google Play Store.

When you’re done filling this out, HMRC will then send you a letter revealing what company has your Child Trust Fund.

What to do once you have claimed the money

Usually, people put the cash straight into a bank account, invest it, or transfer it into an ISA.

You can also ask your Child Trust Fund Provider to give you the money and get it cashed into your bank account.

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This way you’ll need to share the bank account details you wish to transfer the cash into with HMRC.

But if you’d rather invest it, you can transfer it into an ISA.

The Sun recently broke down whether or not an ISA is right for you, which you can read here.

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CPI data to drive 'favorable impact' on Bitcoin prices — 21Shares

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CPI data to drive 'favorable impact' on Bitcoin prices — 21Shares


Consumer prices in the US rose by 2.4% in September, above market expectations but still in a negative trend compared to the past few years.



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Georgia opposition debuts civil blockchain project ahead of critical elections

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Georgia opposition debuts civil blockchain project ahead of critical elections


 Georgia’s political opposition wants to use blockchain technology to develop civil society and the country’s business landscape. 



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Super Micro Computer stock continues wild ride as investors weigh AI hype against alleged DOJ probe

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Super Micro Computer stock continues wild ride as investors weigh AI hype against alleged DOJ probe


Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock fell 2.5% Thursday after rallying as much as 9% the day before, continuing its rollercoaster ride of a week as investors swing between optimism over the company’s strong financials and cautiousness over its regulatory risks.

Super Micro is reportedly being investigated by the Department of Justice over allegations of shady business practices outlined in a scathing report by short seller firm Hindenburg Research in late August. That has pressured the stock, which has hovered under $50 per share since then.

This week, SMCI climbed on positive reports from the AI server maker. Super Micro surged 16% Monday after the company released numbers showing strong demand for its products. The stock was up 12% on Thursday from the prior week.

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Super Micro makes servers using Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI chips for data centers that power artificial intelligence software. The company said it’s shipping servers containing over 100,000 Nvidia GPUs per quarter “for some of the largest AI factories ever built.”

Then on Tuesday, shares of SMCI fell 5% after a promising premarket rally that saw the stock jump as much as 7%. Daniel Newman, CEO of the Futurum Group, said investors’ euphoria over the company’s shipment data faded against the backdrop of Super Micro’s regulatory risk.

“I think one piece of good news hardly undoes multiple months of significant financial and regulatory scrutiny around a company like this,” Newman said.

The Hindenburg report in August accused Super Micro of shoddy accounting, undisclosed relationships between its CEO and companies it does business with, and violations of US export bans. For example, Hindenburg said Super Micro has shipped servers to sanctioned Russian firms through shell companies, some of which were likely used by its military for its war against Ukraine.

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The day after Hindenburg released its report, Super Micro shares dropped 20%. The company also delayed filing its annual 10-K report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Super Micro’s woes continued with a Wall Street Journal report of an alleged DOJ probe, which sent shares tumbling in late September.

Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the Hindenburg report contained “false or inaccurate statements” and “misleading presentations of information that we have previously shared publicly.” Liang said the company’s delayed 10-K filing would not affect the company’s fourth quarter financial results, adding that Super Micro would address Hindenburg’s allegations “in due course.”

(Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

(Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (SOPA Images via Getty Images)

Super Micro’s stock climb this week displays the tension between its potential as a key player in the AI boom and its regulatory hurdles.

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“This is a high-risk reward,” Newman said. “If they get absolved of all of this, there’s a very good chance it’s going to see a pretty nice move to the upside.” Of the Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg who are covering the stock, seven have a Buy rating on the stock, while 11 maintain a Hold rating. Only one analyst recommends selling the stock.

Analysts see shares rising to $66 over the next 12 months.

The company reported mixed results in its last earnings report. Super Micro’s most recent quarterly revenue of $5.3 billion for the three months ended June 30 barely missed Wall Street’s expectations, but was 143% higher than the prior year. On the other hand, Super Micro earnings per share for the company’s fiscal fourth quarter of $0.63 were far lower than analysts’ consensus forecast of $0.83, according to Bloomberg data.

Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher told investors in a note on Oct. 3 to buy the dip, noting that Super Micro “has been growing sales and earnings much more rapidly than the Tech industry in recent years.” Wall Street expects Super Micro to report revenues of $6.5 billion for the period ended Sept. 30, up 206% from the previous year. The company has not yet confirmed a date for its next earnings release.

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“At this point, we are assuming that any accounting irregularities should they exist are minor and can be addressed while requiring re-issued financial documents,” Kelleher said, adding that Super Micro’s recent 10-for-1 stock split on Oct. 1 “broadens the potential investor pool and should be a long-term positive.”

Despite his long-term optimism, Kelleher lowered his 12-month price target for the stock from $100 to $70.

Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

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Boeing Would Be Biggest-Ever US ‘Fallen Angel’ If Cut to Junk

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Boeing Would Be Biggest-Ever US ‘Fallen Angel’ If Cut to Junk


(Bloomberg) — If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings, flooding the high-yield bond market with a record volume of new bonds to absorb.

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On Tuesday, S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production. Last month, Moody’s Ratings said it’s considering a similar move. Fitch Ratings has highlighted the growing risks but not yet announced a review.

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Downgrades to junk from two of Boeing’s three major credit graders would leave much of its $52 billion of outstanding long-term debt ineligible for inclusion in investment-grade indexes. If that happens, Boeing would become the biggest ever fallen angel — industry parlance for a company that’s lost its investment-grade ratings — by index-eligible debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.

“Boeing has worn out its welcome in the investment-grade index,” said Bill Zox, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “But the high-yield index would be honored to welcome Boeing and its many coupon step-ups.”

A spokesperson for Boeing declined to comment for this story.

‘Idiosyncratic Credit Situation’

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JPMorgan isn’t taking a view on the likelihood of Boeing transitioning to junk or what such a transition would mean for its credit fundamentals, strategists led by Eric Beinstein and Nathaniel Rosenbaum wrote in a Thursday note.

There could be a relatively seamless transition, the strategists wrote. Credit spreads are tight trading conditions are relatively liquid trading in both the high-grade and high-yield markets, the strategists wrote. Much of of Boeing’s debt has a coupon step-up feature — where the interest rate increases by 0.25 percentage point for each step below investment-grade that each ratings firm downgrades by, which could make it more palatable to some investors, including insurers.

“Usually downgrades from high-grade to high-yield are clustered together around economic downturns or crisis,” the analysts wrote. “This is an idiosyncratic credit situation, should a downgrade occur. No other large fallen angel has ever transitioned at such tight spreads.”

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The corporate bond market has swelled in recent years, so even if Boeing has more debt than other borrowers have had historically, it takes up a smaller part of the investment-grade universe. The company makes up just 0.7% of Bloomberg’s US corporate investment-grade bond index. When Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. were downgraded in 2005, they took up 8.3% and 3% of the high-grade market respectively, according to JPMorgan.

But there are also reasons for the transition to potentially result in big price moves for the company’s debt. Boeing’s $52 billion debt load is big by junk issuer standards. And it has a relatively high proportion of longer-dated debt, while most high-yield investors focus on shorter- and intermediate-term securities to help manage credit risk.

High-grade and high-yield funds, which pool together bonds according to factors like credit quality and maturity to pay regular returns to investors, could also be impacted. More passive fund investors have piled into the high-grade market over the years, which would mean a higher volume of “forced sellers” if Boeing is downgraded, according to JPMorgan.

“I would expect a fair amount of index-related selling as the debt changes hands between the investment-grade and high-yield markets,” said Scott Kimball, chief investment officer at Loop Capital Asset Management. “It wouldn’t surprise me if things got ugly as high-yield investors aren’t as beholden to benchmarks, generally.”

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Since active high-yield managers are not going be “forced buyers,” they will have a greater degree of price-setting power, according to Kimball.

“The liquidity transfer costs are real,” he said. “High-yield buyers, being less index-focused, are the ones setting the price. It’s the opposite of upgrades where passive money is more prevalent.”

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