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Boeing Would Be Biggest-Ever US ‘Fallen Angel’ If Cut to Junk
(Bloomberg) — If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings, flooding the high-yield bond market with a record volume of new bonds to absorb.
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On Tuesday, S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production. Last month, Moody’s Ratings said it’s considering a similar move. Fitch Ratings has highlighted the growing risks but not yet announced a review.
Downgrades to junk from two of Boeing’s three major credit graders would leave much of its $52 billion of outstanding long-term debt ineligible for inclusion in investment-grade indexes. If that happens, Boeing would become the biggest ever fallen angel — industry parlance for a company that’s lost its investment-grade ratings — by index-eligible debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.
“Boeing has worn out its welcome in the investment-grade index,” said Bill Zox, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “But the high-yield index would be honored to welcome Boeing and its many coupon step-ups.”
A spokesperson for Boeing declined to comment for this story.
‘Idiosyncratic Credit Situation’
JPMorgan isn’t taking a view on the likelihood of Boeing transitioning to junk or what such a transition would mean for its credit fundamentals, strategists led by Eric Beinstein and Nathaniel Rosenbaum wrote in a Thursday note.
There could be a relatively seamless transition, the strategists wrote. Credit spreads are tight trading conditions are relatively liquid trading in both the high-grade and high-yield markets, the strategists wrote. Much of of Boeing’s debt has a coupon step-up feature — where the interest rate increases by 0.25 percentage point for each step below investment-grade that each ratings firm downgrades by, which could make it more palatable to some investors, including insurers.
“Usually downgrades from high-grade to high-yield are clustered together around economic downturns or crisis,” the analysts wrote. “This is an idiosyncratic credit situation, should a downgrade occur. No other large fallen angel has ever transitioned at such tight spreads.”
The corporate bond market has swelled in recent years, so even if Boeing has more debt than other borrowers have had historically, it takes up a smaller part of the investment-grade universe. The company makes up just 0.7% of Bloomberg’s US corporate investment-grade bond index. When Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. were downgraded in 2005, they took up 8.3% and 3% of the high-grade market respectively, according to JPMorgan.
But there are also reasons for the transition to potentially result in big price moves for the company’s debt. Boeing’s $52 billion debt load is big by junk issuer standards. And it has a relatively high proportion of longer-dated debt, while most high-yield investors focus on shorter- and intermediate-term securities to help manage credit risk.
High-grade and high-yield funds, which pool together bonds according to factors like credit quality and maturity to pay regular returns to investors, could also be impacted. More passive fund investors have piled into the high-grade market over the years, which would mean a higher volume of “forced sellers” if Boeing is downgraded, according to JPMorgan.
“I would expect a fair amount of index-related selling as the debt changes hands between the investment-grade and high-yield markets,” said Scott Kimball, chief investment officer at Loop Capital Asset Management. “It wouldn’t surprise me if things got ugly as high-yield investors aren’t as beholden to benchmarks, generally.”
Since active high-yield managers are not going be “forced buyers,” they will have a greater degree of price-setting power, according to Kimball.
“The liquidity transfer costs are real,” he said. “High-yield buyers, being less index-focused, are the ones setting the price. It’s the opposite of upgrades where passive money is more prevalent.”
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Super Micro Computer stock continues wild ride as investors weigh AI hype against alleged DOJ probe
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock fell 2.5% Thursday after rallying as much as 9% the day before, continuing its rollercoaster ride of a week as investors swing between optimism over the company’s strong financials and cautiousness over its regulatory risks.
Super Micro is reportedly being investigated by the Department of Justice over allegations of shady business practices outlined in a scathing report by short seller firm Hindenburg Research in late August. That has pressured the stock, which has hovered under $50 per share since then.
This week, SMCI climbed on positive reports from the AI server maker. Super Micro surged 16% Monday after the company released numbers showing strong demand for its products. The stock was up 12% on Thursday from the prior week.
Super Micro makes servers using Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI chips for data centers that power artificial intelligence software. The company said it’s shipping servers containing over 100,000 Nvidia GPUs per quarter “for some of the largest AI factories ever built.”
Then on Tuesday, shares of SMCI fell 5% after a promising premarket rally that saw the stock jump as much as 7%. Daniel Newman, CEO of the Futurum Group, said investors’ euphoria over the company’s shipment data faded against the backdrop of Super Micro’s regulatory risk.
“I think one piece of good news hardly undoes multiple months of significant financial and regulatory scrutiny around a company like this,” Newman said.
The Hindenburg report in August accused Super Micro of shoddy accounting, undisclosed relationships between its CEO and companies it does business with, and violations of US export bans. For example, Hindenburg said Super Micro has shipped servers to sanctioned Russian firms through shell companies, some of which were likely used by its military for its war against Ukraine.
The day after Hindenburg released its report, Super Micro shares dropped 20%. The company also delayed filing its annual 10-K report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Super Micro’s woes continued with a Wall Street Journal report of an alleged DOJ probe, which sent shares tumbling in late September.
Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the Hindenburg report contained “false or inaccurate statements” and “misleading presentations of information that we have previously shared publicly.” Liang said the company’s delayed 10-K filing would not affect the company’s fourth quarter financial results, adding that Super Micro would address Hindenburg’s allegations “in due course.”
Super Micro’s stock climb this week displays the tension between its potential as a key player in the AI boom and its regulatory hurdles.
“This is a high-risk reward,” Newman said. “If they get absolved of all of this, there’s a very good chance it’s going to see a pretty nice move to the upside.” Of the Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg who are covering the stock, seven have a Buy rating on the stock, while 11 maintain a Hold rating. Only one analyst recommends selling the stock.
Analysts see shares rising to $66 over the next 12 months.
The company reported mixed results in its last earnings report. Super Micro’s most recent quarterly revenue of $5.3 billion for the three months ended June 30 barely missed Wall Street’s expectations, but was 143% higher than the prior year. On the other hand, Super Micro earnings per share for the company’s fiscal fourth quarter of $0.63 were far lower than analysts’ consensus forecast of $0.83, according to Bloomberg data.
Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher told investors in a note on Oct. 3 to buy the dip, noting that Super Micro “has been growing sales and earnings much more rapidly than the Tech industry in recent years.” Wall Street expects Super Micro to report revenues of $6.5 billion for the period ended Sept. 30, up 206% from the previous year. The company has not yet confirmed a date for its next earnings release.
“At this point, we are assuming that any accounting irregularities should they exist are minor and can be addressed while requiring re-issued financial documents,” Kelleher said, adding that Super Micro’s recent 10-for-1 stock split on Oct. 1 “broadens the potential investor pool and should be a long-term positive.”
Despite his long-term optimism, Kelleher lowered his 12-month price target for the stock from $100 to $70.
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
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US stocks wavered on Thursday after the latest consumer inflation print came in hotter than anticipated, setting up expectations for the path of interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) hugged the flatline, after both clinched fresh record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed into positive territory after dipping as much as 0.5%.
Chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) climbed more than 1% while e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) also rose, helping lift the Nasdaq.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, according to US government data, more than the 0.1% rise Wall Street was expecting. On an annualized basis, prices rose 2.4%, compared with 2.3% expected. The data was of greater interest than usual as investors puzzle over the chances of a “no landing” for the economy after last week’s jobs report revived worries about inflation flaring up again.
But the jobs market provided a surprise of its own on Thursday, as initial unemployment claims rose to 258,000, much more than Wall Street anticipated and the highest print since June 2023.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
Amid all the moving parts, traders now see a 15% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in November, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, the odds of no cut were at 0% as the market heeded policymakers’ message and prepared for a 25 basis point rate reduction.
Also on deck is Tesla’s (TSLA) highly anticipated robotaxi event on Thursday evening. CEO Elon Musk is expected to reveal a two-door, butterfly-wing prototype of the cybercab he has bet the EV maker’s future on.
Earnings season started to pick up steam before the bell with quarterly results from Domino’s (DPZ) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). The pizza chain beat on earnings but missed on revenue, while the airline’s profit sank over 25% year over year in the wake of a global tech outage. Shares fell slightly.
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