Ether faced resistance to hold above $2,000 on Tuesday as market sentiment cooled, and a 31% drop in 2026 has drawn comparisons to price fractals seen in prior bull markets. The slide to roughly $1,736 underscored a broader consolidation, with traders weighing the risk of further draws versus the potential of a patient, bottoming process. On-chain watchers have repeatedly highlighted a defined demand zone spanning approximately $1,300 to $2,000, a band that could attract buyers if price action continues to meander lower. The narrative here centers on whether Ether can form a durable base or slip into a protracted period of range-bound trading that delays a meaningful breakout. For context, market participants continue to monitor liquidity flows, derivative risk, and evolving network fundamentals that often foreshadow macro moves.

Key takeaways

• ETH’s drop to about $1,736 may mark the initial low in a broader consolidation phase rather than a final bottom.

• On-chain cost-basis data clusters between $1,300 and $2,000, reinforcing this range as a potential demand zone.

• A fractal comparison of the 2021–2022 cycle with 2024–2025 suggests a pattern where an early bottom is followed by retests to lower levels before a durable base forms.

• UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) points to meaningful overhead resistance near $2,822 and $3,119, concentrations that could cap rallies unless substantial demand emerges below current levels.

• Derivatives data show concentrated long-liquidation risk around $1,455 from $1,700, while more than $12 billion in short liquidity sits up to $3,000, implying a potential shift in momentum once downside liquidity is absorbed.

Tickers mentioned: $ETH

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. Near-term risk remains balanced by base-building signals and a defined demand zone.

Market context: The broader crypto backdrop continues to digest on-chain signals alongside macro risks. Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges have spiked to the highest levels since October 2025, with net outflows exceeding 220,000 ETH, and Binance alone recording roughly 158,000 ETH in daily net outflows—the largest since August 2025. These flows coincided with ETH trading in a $1,800–$2,000 range, suggesting a combination of accumulation and risk-off repositioning. Meanwhile, stablecoin activity on Ethereum has risen markedly, with stablecoin transaction volume up about 200% over the past 18 months even as the price has lagged. This divergence can foreshadow a re-rating if network fundamentals and liquidity conditions align with price action.

Why it matters

The unfolding pattern matters because it frames Ether’s potential trajectory in the context of a longer base-building phase rather than a quick recovery. If the fractal framework holds, the asset could spend more time coiling within a defined band, testing lower supports before a durable upside breakout emerges. This matters for traders and risk managers who must gauge how much exposure to maintain during a broad consolidation while tracking evolving on-chain activity and derivatives signals that historically precede major moves.

From a broader market perspective, the interaction between on-chain demand zones and subtle shifts in exchange flows could signal how liquidity is reallocated as institutions and retail participants reassess risk. The observed uptick in stablecoin settlements and the outflows from centralized venues imply a transfer of risk away from exchanges in favor of self-custody and potentially longer-duration holding patterns. If this trend persists, it could set the stage for a renewed bid when price action tests critical levels in the $1,500s or higher.

Additionally, the ongoing dialogue around whether Ether is capitulating or merely consolidating highlights the nuanced nature of market cycles. The fractal approach, which aligns current action with prior periods of broad basing, suggests that patience and disciplined risk management may be more prudent than chasing short-term rallies during uncertain liquidity regimes. Independent observers are watching for confirmations from on-chain metrics and derivatives markets that could either reinforce a gradual re-rating or expose the market to sharper, faster moves once liquidity conditions flip.

What to watch next

• Price tests of the $1,500–$1,600 zone and whether buyers re-emerge at the lower end of the demand band.

• Verification of key URPD levels around $1,237 and $1,881 as potential cycle floors and pockets of demand if price retraces further.

• Monitoring long versus short liquidity dynamics, including long-liquidation risks around $1,455 from the $1,700 area and substantial short liquidity up to $3,000, which could shape the slope of any ensuing rally.

• Trends in exchange withdrawals and stablecoin turnover on Ethereum, which may presage shifts in market participation and risk tolerance.

• Derivative market signals, including any evolving bias after absorption of near-term liquidity pressures, to gauge whether the market transitions from distribution to accumulation.

Sources & verification

• Ether UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data and interpretations from Glassnode.
• Rising Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges and related net flows, with Binance’s outflows highlighted as a notable datapoint from CryptoQuant.
• Derivatives risk indicators, including the Cuingood-style liquidation heat map from Coinglass, detailing long-liquidation risk levels and short liquidity concentrations to $3,000.
• Weekly chart framing and fractal comparisons published with reference to ETHUSDT data on TradingView (Cointelegraph/TradingView).
• Ethereum Foundation SEAL collaboration articles on wallet security and related efforts to curb drainers.

Ether fractal signals an extended base-building phase

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has again drawn analysts to a familiar price-action pattern where a pronounced dip is followed by a prolonged period of range-bound activity rather than an immediate leg higher. On the weekly chart, a move toward the $1,730 area resembles a “first low” rather than a definitive market floor, echoing structures seen during the 2021–2022 period when ETH spent roughly a year consolidating near a first low of approximately $1,730 and a broader support band around $885. These historical touchpoints, when viewed through a fractal lens, suggest the current cycle may unfold similarly: a first phase of downside risk that yields to a more extended base-building phase before demand returns with greater resilience. The weekly framing in this narrative is anchored by the ETHUSDT pair on TradingView, which has provided the visual reference for these comparisons. The fractal interpretation is not a guarantee, but it offers a framework for interpreting the sequence of on-chain activity and price movements against the backdrop of a market still digesting liquidity and macro cues.

In the near term, the market’s focus shifts to whether Ether can sustain a bid above the immediate support around $1,500–$1,600 or if price testing compounds the pressure toward the $1,237 level, a region that previous analyses identify as a potential cycle floor. The on-chain support is reinforced by URPD observations, which show substantial realized price concentration at higher levels, underscoring a stubborn overhead that could keep rallies in check unless fresh demand emerges. At the same time, the index of supply concentration at $2,822 and $3,119 constitutes a ceiling that traders must clear to generate meaningful upside momentum. These resistance pillars remind investors that any attempt to re-rate Ether will require a combination of technical durability and sustained capital inflows.

Meanwhile, market participants should monitor the interplay between on-chain signals and derivatives dynamics. The heat map of long liquidations suggests a risk horizon near $1,455 when price drifts from $1,700, while a large pool of short liquidity up to $3,000 implies a potential upside framework once sellers exhaust liquidity pressure. The balance between these forces—realized price levels, withdrawal trends, and the evolving derivative landscape—will shape whether Ether can complete a longer, steadier base or remains vulnerable to periodic risk-off episodes that push the price toward the lower bound of the current range.

As observers parse these signals, one constant remains: the market’s attention to demand zones and supply barriers. The convergence of on-chain data with macro risk sentiment can either reinforce a patient, base-building narrative or catalyze a more decisive move if new catalysts emerge. The evolving ecosystem continues to attract attention from developers and investors who watch for signs of renewed network activity, institutional participation, and regulatory clarity that could shift the risk calculus in Ether’s favor.

Crypto’s $193 million campaign-finance force, the Fairshake political action committee, is launching into congressional midterm season with a massive $5 million injection into the Republican primary campaign of Barry Moore, a U.S. congressman now running for Senate.

One of Fairshake’s affiliates, Defend American Jobs, is committing that spending to support Moore, even though the general election remains almost nine months away. That marks one of the group’s first major forays into what promises to be a high-stakes, high-spending election season.”We are proud to stand with Barry Moore, a leader who will fight for economic growth and make America the crypto capital,” Fairshake said in a Tuesday statement.

Fairshake had also recently devoted funds to Representative French Hill, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee who has led the charge on crypto legislation in the U.S., according to a representative of the PAC. Hill and his allies already managed to get a crypto market structure bill through the House of Representatives last year and are now awaiting a matching effort in the U.S. Senate.

Such crypto legislation is the central purpose of Fairshake’s giving — promoting pro-crypto candidates ready to pass friendly bills and opposing those who stand against such legislation.

As with all the super PAC’s giving, the money for Moore will be through “independent expenditures” under federal election law, meaning the cash can buy ads for the candidate, but they can’t deal directly with the campaign. Fairshake-backed ads in the 2024 election didn’t mention crypto at all, and this broadcast ad for Moore intends to feature the candidate’s endorsement from President Donald Trump.

Moore has served five years in the House, and he’s now campaigning to replace Senator Tommy Tuberville, a Republican who is aiming for the governor’s mansion this year. The Alabama congressman has so far served in the House’s Agriculture Committee, where crypto legislation was on the agenda last year.

“Crypto is not a fad,” Moore wrote in a December post on social media site X. “It is part of our future. It is part of Alabama’s future.”

Moore is one of five Republican candidates who announced their participation in that primary. Early polling has so far seen Moore generally in second place behind state Attorney General Steve Marshall. Both have “A” crypto ratings from Stand With Crypto, a group that reviews the digital assets views of political figures.

Read More: Industry’s PAC Keeps Seeking to Add Allies as Congress Hashes Out Crypto Legislation

Interactive Brokers (IBKR), a leading global brokerage with more than 4.5 million clients, rolled out small-sized nano BTC and ETH futures contracts today.

The contracts leverage Coinbase Derivatives’ traditional futures offerings, which have monthly expirations, and its “perpetual-style futures,” making IBKR the latest traditional brokerage to offer perpetuals.

The move is IBKR’s latest into crypto, after enabling stablecoin deposits in December.

Perpetual derivatives exploded in 2025, driven by the success of platforms such as Hyperliquid, Lighter and Aster. Nearly $8 trillion in decentralized perpetuals trading occurred in 2025, according to DeFiLlama, compared with $2.55 trillion in 2024 and just $690 billion in 2023.

Traditional financial institutions continue to expand their crypto trading offerings, as evidenced by the CME Group adding new altcoin futures yesterday and even teasing its own native tokenized cash during its latest earnings call.

Unlike in previous crypto cycles, when traditional players slowly stepped away as prices dropped, leading institutions such as CME and IBKR continue to dive headfirst into the space, despite Bitcoin falling more than 50% from its October peak. However, it remains unclear whether TradFi’s focus on broadening trading access will meaningfully affect crypto prices.

Bitcoin mining stress deepened as difficulty fell 14% and Puell dipped below 0.8, even as Cango sold $305M in BTC.

Bitcoin mining conditions tightened sharply in late January and early February after network difficulty fell 14% over three weeks and publicly traded miner Cango disclosed a $305 million BTC sale over the weekend.

The combination of falling profitability metrics and selective balance sheet sales shows pressure spreading across the mining sector, even as broader on-chain data shows no signs of disorderly selling.

Difficulty Drops as Miners Cut Capacity

According to a February 10 brief published by on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s network difficulty dropped by a combined 14.1% between January 22 and February 6, following two consecutive downward adjustments of 3.3% and 11.2%. Such back-to-back cuts usually occur when less efficient mining equipment is taken offline, often during periods of weak price action.

During the same window, the price of BTC fell about 25%, briefly touching $60,000 before rebounding toward $70,000. At the time of writing, the flagship cryptocurrency was trading at around $69,000, down nearly 1% in the last 24 hours and more than 12% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.

The asset has also lost 24% of its value over the past month and about 29% year over year, underperforming earlier-cycle expectations and keeping mining margins tight.

Against this backdrop, Cango confirmed it sold 4,451 BTC for approximately $305 million, citing balance sheet strengthening. The sale, approved by the company’s board, drew an immediate reaction from equity investors, with Cango shares closing 8% lower on the first trading day after the disclosure.

Adler described the transaction as a point event rather than evidence of widespread forced liquidation, noting that aggregate miner flows to exchanges are still holding steady.

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Data from miner exchange inflows supports that view, with the 30-day moving average of daily miner transfers hovering near 82 BTC, only slightly lower than mid-January levels and well within recent norms, according to the market watcher. Furthermore, he reported that there have been no sustained spikes that would suggest broad reserve dumping.

Profitability Pressure and What Comes Next

Profitability metrics still point to strain. For instance, Adler pointed out in his brief that the Puell Multiple, which compares daily miner revenue to its annual average, slipped to a 30-day average of 0.77 in early February, down from 0.86 in mid-January. He added that spot readings briefly fell to around 0.61, levels historically associated with miner stress and capacity exits.

The analyst noted that miners earning below their annual average tend to prioritize liquidity, increasing the chance of selective reserve sales rather than aggressive expansion. According to him, completion of this stress phase typically requires a reversal in difficulty adjustments and a recovery in the Puell Multiple toward the 0.85 to 0.90 range.

For now, the data suggests the adjustment is playing out mainly through hashrate reductions instead of heavy selling. The risk, in Adler’s opinion, is a renewed price drop below $60,000, which could push profitability metrics lower and prompt similar sales from other public miners.

Crypto miner and manufacturer Canaan fell 6.9% on the Nasdaq on Tuesday despite reporting a 121.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to $196.3 million in the fourth quarter, driven by an increase in hardware sales and stronger mining performance.

Canaan reported that its Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue rose 98.5% year-on-year to $30.4 million, helping boost its Bitcoin treasury to a record 1,750 BTC, valued at nearly $120 million, while the company also increased its Ether (ETH) holdings to 3,950 ETH, worth $7.9 million.

The revenue figure is Canaan’s highest quarterly posting in three years, and was also driven by Bitcoin mining machine sales, with the company shipping a record 14.6 exahashes per second (EH/s) of computing power during the quarter.

Canaan said computing power sales were supported by a “milestone order” from a US-based institutional miner, helping it set a new quarterly record for computing power sales and achieve a 60% year-on-year increase.

On the mining front, the Singapore-based company said it expanded its installed hashrate to 9.91 EH/s, with 7.65 EH/s operational during the quarter.

Bitcoin network hashrate has fallen from a record 1,150 EH/s in mid-October to 980 EH/s as miners continue to unplug unprofitable machines and pivot to AI and high-performance computing.

Despite the strong Q4 performance, Canaan (CAN) shares tanked another 6.87% to $0.56, Google Finance data shows, making it one of the lowest performers among the 15 largest Bitcoin miners by market cap.

Canaan’s risk of Nasdaq delisting worsens

At its current price of $0.56, the company is now down 18.1% year-to-date and 70.2% over the last 12 months.