XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has retraced nearly 63% from its multi-year high of $3.66 to around $1.36 as of Wednesday, a move that market analysts say could carry bearish implications unless buyers reassert themselves. The slide comes amid a confluence of technical signals and growing on-chain activity that could either reinforce a near-term downshift or set the stage for a stubborn reversal. Traders are weighing a technical setup that points toward further pressure against a backdrop of sustained demand from spot XRP ETFs and persistent whale accumulation, painting a nuanced picture for the digital asset’s near-term trajectory. The Gaussian Channel, a charting method used to identify trends and potential support or resistance levels, places XRP at a crossroads where previous patterning has often dictated the tempo of subsequent moves.

Key takeaways

• The price action has broken below a critical zone near $1.40, aligning with a bearish setup that could extend losses toward the $0.70–$1 range if support fails.
• The Gaussian Channel shows the upper regression band near $1.16 and the middle band around $0.70, suggesting that a test of important structural levels could unfold over the coming weeks or months.
• A drop below the local low of $1.12 would validate the bearish scenario described by market technicians, potentially accelerating the downside case.
• Spot XRP ETF inflows have continued, with cumulative net inflows reaching about $1.01 billion and inflows of roughly $3.26 million on a single day, underscoring ongoing institutional interest.
• On-chain activity has picked up, with whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and active addresses surging to a six-month high, signaling that buyers remain engaged despite the price decline.
• Nevertheless, persistent ETF demand and on-chain signals could counterbalance the technical headwinds if liquidity conditions remain favorable and market sentiment improves.

Tickers mentioned: $XRP, $BTC, $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. A break below key supports could push XRP toward the mid-band around $0.70, extending the downside unless buyers step in.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Near-term risk remains elevated if $1.12 fails, but renewals in ETF inflows and on-chain activity keep the scene cautiously balanced.

Market context: The XRP market remains closely tethered to liquidity flows from spot XRP ETFs and evolving on-chain activity. Spot XRP ETF inflows have continued, contributing to roughly $1.01 billion in cumulative net inflows and sustaining roughly $1.01 billion in assets under management, with daily inflows of millions that underscore ongoing institutional interest. At the same time, on-chain dynamics have shown resilience, with whale activity and active addresses rising even as price action remains under pressure. These factors collectively reflect a broader environment where ETF-driven demand can offset, at least temporarily, technical headwinds.

Why it matters

For investors watching XRP, the current setup matters because it juxtaposes a stubborn price decline with stubborn liquidity support. The Gaussian Channel’s readings imply that XRP could oscillate within a defined corridor before a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs. If the upper band near $1.16 acts as a temporary ceiling and the price fails to hold above the lower levels, the drawdown could extend toward the $0.70–$1 region, a zone that previously lacked robust testing for sustained support. Such a breach would be meaningful not just for XRP bulls and bears but for funds and institutions tracking the asset as part of broader crypto exposure. The dynamics of ETF flows, as observed in late-2025 through 2026, emphasize that institutional demand can create a buffer against rapid declines, but they are not a guarantee against further losses if macro conditions or sentiment deteriorate.

“The middle regression band currently ties up around $0.70, which is also a previous year-long resistance level seen back in 2023/2024, and hasn’t been backtested for support.”

On the liquidity side, the market has benefitted from a steady stream of ETF inflows. The Canary XRP ETF launch, which began late in 2025, has contributed to a trajectory of inflows that has pushed the cumulative total higher, with the latest daily inflows evidencing continued demand from institutional players. This flow is not a panacea for price declines, but it argues for a more nuanced outlook than a pure technical read would suggest. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics paint an equally important portrait. Analysts have highlighted a surge in XRP activity: whale transactions of over $100,000 and a spike in active addresses have suggested that sector participants remain engaged and are deploying capital despite adverse price movements. These signals can be precursors to a bottom or a renewed uptrend, depending on whether they align with broader market liquidity and risk appetite.

Analysts have also cited the importance of the price level around $1.12. A move below that local low could be a technical confirmation of the bearish scenario, triggering a cascade of downside protections and prompting a reevaluation of risk parity in XRP portfolios. Conversely, if ETF inflows persist and on-chain activity maintains its strength, XRP could find a foundation and attempt a staged recovery as liquidity conditions improve and risk sentiment stabilizes. The tension between price-driven momentum and liquidity-driven demand is a defining feature of XRP’s current phase, and market participants are closely watching both channels for signals of the next major move.

As the market weighs these factors, the broader crypto environment remains cautious. The behavior of BTC and ETH—often a barometer for risk sentiment—has a bearing on how XRP will respond to developing macro cues and regulatory dynamics. Although XRP has decoupled at times from the broader market, the path of least resistance in the near term could be influenced by the balance between selling pressure at technical resistance and fresh inflows that sustain institutions’ appetite for XRP exposure.

What to watch next

• Monitoring XRP’s level relative to the $1.12 local low to gauge whether the bearish scenario gains traction.
• Tracking the Gaussian Channel bands around $1.16 (upper) and $0.70 (middle) for potential testing or breakout signals.
• Observing ongoing spot XRP ETF inflows and AUM, which could widen the collision between technical resistance and liquidity-driven strength.
• Watching on-chain metrics, especially the trajectory of whale transactions and daily active addresses, for signs of renewed accumulation or distribution.

Sources & verification

• Chart Nerd’s analysis on Gaussian Channel fractals and XRP price projections referenced in a social post.
• Discussion on XRP price movement below the 1.60 level and potential downside scenarios.
• Canary XRP ETF launch and the resulting inflow data, including cumulative inflows and daily inflows feeding assets under management.
• Santiment’s reports on whale activity, large XRP transactions, and address activity as a measure of on-chain demand.

Market reaction and key details

The current XRP setup binds a bear-case price scenario to a backdrop of ongoing ETF inflows and active on-chain participation. While the price remains under pressure, the inflows into spot XRP ETFs and sustained whale engagement provide a counterbalancing force that could underpin a bottom if liquidity remains ample and risk appetite stabilizes. The path forward will likely hinge on whether XRP can stabilize above critical support levels and whether on-chain signals translate into durable buying interest.

What to watch next

• Whether XRP can hold above $1.12 on a closing basis, which would delay a deeper pullback.
• How ETF inflows trend over the next several sessions and whether AUM surpasses the $1.05–$1.10 billion range.
• Any new regulatory or product developments affecting XRP ETFs or custodial structures that could influence liquidity and investor confidence.

Africa recorded the highest median stablecoin-to-fiat conversion spreads among tracked regions in January, according to data observed by payments infrastructure company Borderless.xyz, covering 66 currency corridors and nearly 94,000 rate observations.

The regional median spread was 299 basis points, or about 3%, compared with roughly 1.3% in Latin America and 0.07% in Asia. In Africa, conversion costs ranged from about 1.5% in South Africa to nearly 19.5% in Botswana. 

The data measures “spreads,” or the gap between a provider’s buy and sell rate for a stablecoin-to-fiat pair. Similar to a bid-ask spread in traditional markets, it reflects the execution cost paid when converting stablecoins into local fiat currency. 

The findings suggest that while stablecoins are promoted as a cheaper alternative to traditional remittance rails, actual costs vary widely across African markets and appear closely tied to local provider competition and liquidity. 

Competition drives pricing gaps

Borderless.xyz found that markets with several competing providers generally had conversion costs between about 1.5% and 4%. In markets with only one provider, costs often exceeded 13%. 

Botswana recorded the highest median conversion cost in January at 19.4%, though pricing improved later in the month. Congo’s costs were also above 13%. By contrast, South Africa, which has a more competitive foreign exchange market, showed costs of about 1.5%. 

The report suggested that these differences are driven primarily by local market conditions, such as liquidity and competition, rather than the underlying blockchain technology. In countries where multiple providers operate, conversion costs stayed closer to the regional average. 

Related: Uganda opposition leader promotes Bitchat amid fears of internet blackout

Stablecoins versus traditional foreign exchange

The report also compares stablecoin mid-rates with traditional interbank foreign exchange rates, measuring what it calls the “TradFi premium.”

This metric reflects whether stablecoin exchange rates are cheaper or more expensive than traditional FX mid-market rates. 

Across 33 currencies globally, the median difference between stablecoin exchange rates and traditional mid-market foreign exchange rates was about 5 basis points, or 0.05%, indicating the two were largely in line.

In Africa, the median gap was wider at roughly 119 basis points, or about 1.2%, though the difference varied significantly depending on the country.

On Jan. 24, economist Vera Songwe said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that stablecoins are helping reduce remittance costs across Africa, where traditional transfer services can charge about $6 per $100 sent.

The new data adds context, suggesting that while stablecoins offer faster settlement and potential savings compared with legacy services, conversion costs within specific corridors remain elevated.