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Elon Musk Grok AI Predicts Explosive Bitcoin Price by The End of 2026

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Elon Musk Grok AI Predicts Explosive Bitcoin Price by The End of 2026

There is a specific phrase in this prediction worth sitting with for a second, classic post-halving correction phase. Elon Musk’s Grok AI is not predicts the current chart as weakness or trend failure.

It is describing it as a known stage in a known cycle, one that has historically resolved into the most explosive part of the entire bull market. At $64,000, that framing is the difference between fear and patience, and Grok is firmly on the side of patience.

The base case is $150,000 to $200,000 by December 2026, with a strong bull scenario stretching past $250,000 if ETF inflows accelerate and macro conditions turn decisively risk-on.

Source: Grok AI Bitcoin Price Prediction

That is a 2.3x to over 3.9x move from here, built on the same drivers that have shown up across nearly every major prediction in this series.

Surging institutional adoption through spot ETFs, growing sovereign and corporate treasury accumulation, improving global liquidity from potential rate cuts, and the hardest variable of all, a fixed 21 million coin supply that gets more scarce by the day.

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What makes Grok’s case distinct is the historical anchor. Cycle patterns point to the parabolic peak landing 12 to 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which places the ignition point squarely in Q3 to Q4 2026, right where the prediction sets its target window.

The bear case is treated as a detour rather than a derailment. Extended macro headwinds or delayed liquidity could drag prices toward $45,000 to $55,000 support before rebounding, potentially capping the cycle top at $100,000 to $120,000 instead of six figures beyond that.

Bitcoin (BTC)
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Even Grok’s pessimistic scenario keeps Bitcoin meaningfully higher than today, which tells you how asymmetric this setup looks from where price currently sits.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Floor That Keeps Refusing To Break

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BTC is at $64,042 today, sitting almost exactly where it traded back in February after the post-ATH selloff first hit. That repetition matters.

This is now the third distinct test of the $60,000 to $64,000 zone since the all-time high near $128,000 last October, and each prior test produced a recovery rather than a breakdown.

Markets that keep finding buyers at the same level over many months are telling you something about where real demand sits, and this zone has earned that credibility through repetition rather than a single bounce.

The overhead picture is where the real test lives. Every recovery attempt since the October peak has stalled somewhere between $80,000 and $96,000, a wide band of resistance built from trapped buyers at multiple failed breakouts.

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For Grok’s six figure thesis to gain real traction on the chart, Bitcoin needs to clear that entire zone decisively rather than just poke through it temporarily, the way it did briefly in October before reversing hard.

The RSI sits at 37.63 with the signal line at 31.33, a gap of just over 6 points, modest compared to some of the sharper divergences seen elsewhere in this series but still meaningfully positive.

Momentum dipped into the high 20s during the June low and has since climbed back above its average without yet reaching neutral, which is consistent with a market still digesting the correction phase Grok describes rather than one already accelerating into a new leg.

That is actually the more honest signal here. The chart is not yet shouting bull market. It is quietly suggesting the bleeding from this correction has slowed, which is precisely the stage that should come before the launch Grok is calling for in the back half of the year.

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Discover: The Best Token Presales

You Might Like What Grok AI Predicts About LiquidChain

The rotation is happening now. Most people will only spot it in hindsight.

Large-cap crypto isn’t failing. It’s capped. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have pressed against the same resistance bands for weeks, and the macro tailwinds keep getting pushed back a quarter. Holding assets whose upside depends on someone else’s catalyst isn’t a strategy. It’s waiting.

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Capital that has survived enough cycles moves before the destination becomes obvious, not after.

Early-stage infrastructure runs on different math. A market cap small enough turns a modest rotation into a sharp price move. The asymmetry exists because the market hasn’t priced in what’s being built yet, and the gap between current valuation and actual worth is where the return comes from.

Multi-chain fragmentation drains real money out of DeFi every day. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana operate as isolated liquidity systems with no native connection between them. Anyone moving value across ecosystems pays for that isolation directly, in fees, slippage, and failed transactions.

LiquidChain folds all three networks into a single execution layer. One deployment reaches the full ecosystem. No tax on crossing between chains.

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The market hasn’t found this yet. That’s the point.

The presale sits at $0.01454, with just over $840,000 raised. Ground floor isn’t marketing language here; it’s a literal description of where the project sits in its lifecycle.

Execution is unproven. Adoption is unknown. Those risks are real and worth stating plainly. Established assets offer a smoother climb toward a ceiling the market can already see. This is an earlier seat at a table nobody has built yet.

Explore the LiquidChain Presale

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Aztec Network loses over $4 million in three days to two subsequent hacks

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Aztec Network loses over $4 million in two exploits
Aztec Network loses over $4 million in two exploits
  • Legacy Aztec Network contracts were drained of over $4M in three days.
  • Attacks exploited flaws in zero-knowledge proof verification logic.
  • The core Aztec network and AZTEC token were not affected by the exploits.

Aztec’s legacy infrastructure has come under a coordinated wave of attacks, leading to losses that crossed $4 million within just three days.

The exploits targeted deprecated smart contracts that had already been shut down years earlier but still held on-chain liquidity.

Despite being labelled as inactive and immutable, the contracts remained accessible to attackers who exploited weaknesses in zero-knowledge proof verification logic.

While the attacks did not affect the current Aztec network or its AZTEC token, they exposed long-standing risks tied to retired DeFi systems that continue to exist on Ethereum without active maintenance or upgrade paths.

First breach: Aztec Connect drained of $2.1 million

The first incident occurred on June 14, when attackers exploited the Aztec Connect protocol, a deprecated privacy-focused bridge that had been officially shut down after its retirement phase.

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The contract was already considered inactive, yet it still contained residual funds.

The attacker managed to drain approximately $2.1 million in digital assets, including around 909 ETH, 270,000 DAI, and 167 wstETH, alongside other smaller holdings.

The exploit was linked to flaws in the way rollup proof verification was handled, allowing invalid or manipulated proofs to be accepted as legitimate.

What made the situation more critical was the nature of the contract itself.

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Aztec Connect was described as immutable, meaning it could not be paused or patched once deployed.

Even though users had previously been encouraged to withdraw funds before shutdown, the remaining balance became an easy target for exploitation years later.

Security teams reviewing the incident pointed to a breakdown in the relationship between zero-knowledge proof validation and on-chain settlement logic.

In simple terms, the system accepted proofs that did not correctly match the underlying transaction state, allowing the attacker to trigger unauthorised withdrawals.

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Second attack: Private Rollup Bridge exploited for $2.15 million

Just three days later, a second exploit hit another legacy system known as the Private Rollup Bridge.

This contract was also part of Aztec’s older infrastructure and had been deprecated following the transition away from earlier rollup designs.

In this case, attackers drained roughly 1,158 ETH, valued at close to $2.15 million at the time of the incident.

The method used was different in execution but similar in technical root cause.

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Instead of directly manipulating withdrawals through basic proof mismatch, the attacker leveraged a vulnerable “escape hatch” mechanism embedded in the bridge design.

By submitting a specially crafted zero-knowledge proof, the attacker was able to trigger the contract’s exit logic.

The system incorrectly validated the proof and released funds without proper verification of the underlying state transitions.

This allowed the attacker to extract liquidity in a single coordinated sequence.

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Like the earlier exploit, this breach did not involve private key compromise or reentrancy vulnerabilities.

Instead, it highlighted deeper issues in how proof validation was structured in legacy rollup systems, particularly when contracts remain permanently active on-chain after being officially sunset.

Response from Aztec and security firms

Following both incidents, Aztec Labs and the Aztec Foundation confirmed that the affected systems were deprecated products with no connection to the current Aztec network or AZTEC token ecosystem.

They emphasised that neither contract could be upgraded, paused, or controlled, as both were designed to be immutable at deployment.

Security firm CertiK Alert also flagged the Private Rollup Bridge exploit, identifying the attacker’s address and confirming the movement of funds tied to a specific Ethereum transaction.

Their analysis aligned with other reviews, suggesting that the vulnerability stemmed from flaws in zero-knowledge proof verification rather than conventional smart contract bugs.

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Aztec representatives also clarified that the Private Rollup Bridge and Aztec Connect incidents were separate events, even though they occurred within a short timeframe and shared similar technical weaknesses.

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) nemesis, the Dollar Index (DXY), is on the verge of a major breakout: Daybook: Crypto Daily

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ParaFi defies crypto market downturn with $125 million raise for new fund

Bitcoin and the Dollar Index (DXY) are moving in opposite directions, with the latter on the verge of a major move that may embolden crypto bears.

The largest cryptocurrency is under pressure for a third straight day, trading near $63,900 and down nearly 1% since midnight UTC. The broader market is mostly showing similar losses, with the exception of a few tokens such as HASH, XLM and ENA, which gained 7% or more.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s value against major fiat currencies, has gained 0.26% to 100.66, extending Wednesday’s 0.8% rise. What’s notable is that the index is now on the verge of firmly breaking out of a 13-month-long trading range.

This type of setup usually leads to more momentum chasing by traders, resulting in further gains. Strength in the greenback typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets such as bitcoin.

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BTC has historically tended to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. Its 90-day correlation coefficient with the DXY was recently minus 0.82.

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Mounting AI costs and weaker performance are driving investors toward AI infrastructure

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Mounting AI costs and weaker performance are driving investors toward AI infrastructure

The biggest winners from the rotation have been memory and semiconductor stocks. Memory-chip maker Sandisk (SNDK) has surged roughly 800% this year and the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF, which focuses on memory-related companies (DRAM), is up about 140%. In microprocessors, Micron Technology (MU) has gained about 230% this year, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) 67%.

The investments highlight a growing preference for the companies supplying the infrastructure behind the AI boom rather than the hyperscalers funding it.

In addition, capital has been attracted SpaceX (SPCX), Elon Musk’s space exploration company that is also expanding into AI. Last week, the company raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in history.

While AI has become the market’s dominant investment theme, the cash required to feed the growth is rising even faster. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon, Microsoft and Meta are expected to spend a combined $725 billion on capital expenditures this year, a 77% increase from last year’s record level.

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Free cash flow is no longer fully funding these ambitions. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, collectively borrowed some $93 billion last year, accounting for roughly 6% of total corporate bond issuance.

Another source of support is also fading. Share repurchases have fallen 33% to $132 billion in 2025, reducing a key pillar of demand for these stocks.

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Bitcoin Dips Below $64K Again: Here’s How Whales Reacted

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After showing signs of recovery, Bitcoin (BTC) lost momentum and dipped below $64,000 earlier today before finding support there.

While short-term sentiment weakened, the largest BTC holders appeared unfazed, using the decline as a buying opportunity.

Whale Accumulation Returns

Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased their combined holdings to 7.17 million BTC, according to Santiment’s latest findings. This is the highest level recorded since March 14. These large holders now control 35.82% of Bitcoin’s available supply, while the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC stands at 2,044.

Additionally, crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that addresses holding more than 1 BTC have increased their combined holdings to a new all-time high of over 16.8 million BTC. The total supply held by this group continues to rise.

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Darkfost explained that this trend could be linked to Bitcoin’s gradual institutionalization, although he stressed that such a development should be viewed from a long-term perspective.

Retail investors are also showing signs of renewed accumulation, but at a slower pace. This group is currently estimated to hold around 1.7 million BTC, which remains below the peak recorded in December 2023. The analyst went on to add that some retail participants may have taken profits during previous rallies, while others could have shifted their exposure to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which are easier to manage.

Despite these differences, both large holders and retail investors appear to be increasingly viewing the current market environment as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

Fed Takes Center Stage

Markets reacted strongly after the latest FOMC meeting. Bitcoin dropped below its “liquidity defense line.” Bitunix analyst Dean Chen said these moves suggest that investors are adjusting portfolios for a longer period of high interest rates rather than expecting an economic slowdown or easier monetary conditions. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Chen said that Federal Reserve policy is becoming a bigger driver of crypto markets than Middle East developments.

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The analyst also warned that tighter liquidity, a stronger dollar, and rising Treasury yields could increase pressure on risk assets in the months ahead.

 “Now, Warsh has explicitly anchored policy priorities to inflation control and rebuilding Fed credibility, meaning liquidity expectations could continue to tighten in the coming months. If the dollar remains strong and Treasury yields continue to climb, capital will increasingly favor the greenback and fixed-income assets, leaving risk assets to face higher valuation pressures.”

The post Bitcoin Dips Below $64K Again: Here’s How Whales Reacted appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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420,000,000 Dogecoin (DOGE) in 7 Days: Crash Signal or False Alarms?

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The OG meme coin has fared poorly over the past several months, dropping out of the elite top 10 crypto club.

While some market observers remain optimistic that a recovery could be on the way, recent whale behavior suggests that a deeper collapse is also plausible.

DOGE Whales ‘Paying Rent’

The popular analyst Ali Martinez revealed that 420 million coins have been distributed by such large investors over the past seven days. As of current rates, the USD equivalent of this stash is around $35 million, while whales now collectively own nearly 35 billion DOGE, 22.7% of the token’s circulating supply.

The development doesn’t guarantee that the meme coin’s price is headed for further decline, but it signals that these investors are preparing for such a scenario.

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Some believe these market participants are experienced players who may have access to inside information, enabling them to position themselves effectively ahead of major moves. In any case, their actions are closely monitored by retail investors, who could follow suit, thereby intensifying the sell-off.

Others took a more humorous approach to explaining the recent behavior. X user Lynor, for instance, said that DOGE whales cashed out so they can “pay rent this week.”

Time to Rally?

Martinez has been quite vocal on DOGE lately, and his previous comments were quite optimistic. Earlier in June, he disclosed that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator flashed a buy signal on the asset, suggesting a rebound could be on the way. It’s worth mentioning that this technical tool accurately predicted the meme coin’s pullback in early May, when the valuation dropped from $0.113 to $0.078.

Later on, the analyst paid special attention to $0.081, classifying it as “the lower mid-range boundary” of a five-year parallel channel dating back to 2021. He argued that holding above that level could open the door for another “parabolic move.”

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DOGE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports the bullish scenario. The ratio has fallen to 30, meaning that the asset has entered oversold territory and could be due for a resurgence. The technical analysis tool ranges from 0 to 100, with anything above 70 considered a warning of a possible correction.

DOGE RSI
DOGE RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

Last but not least, we will take a look at DOGE’s exchange netflow. Over the past several weeks, outflows have surpassed inflows, reflecting a growing investor preference for self-custody – a trend that naturally reduces immediate selling pressure.

DOGE Exchange Netflow
DOGE Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

The post 420,000,000 Dogecoin (DOGE) in 7 Days: Crash Signal or False Alarms? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Alchemy’s AI-driven AgentCard gains access to Visa payments network

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Alchemy's AI-driven AgentCard gains access to Visa payments network

Blockchain infrastructure firm Alchemy said AI agents with its AgentCard now have access to the Visa (V) network with complete identity and payment capabilities, enabling them to make online purchases on behalf of consumers.

The integration allows AgentCard, a virtual ID and spending card for AI agents, to access Visa Intelligent Commerce to book a vacation, order groceries or renew a subscription, for example, without the consumer ever touching a checkout screen.

Agent-native payment protocols are in early adoption with firms like Stripe, Visa and Mastercard (MA) driving hard into this new area, known as agentic commerce. AgentCard works with agents built on models from any provider, including OpenAI or Anthropic.

“Every major computing shift has produced a new kind of economic actor,” Nikil Viswanathan, co-founder and CEO of Alchemy, said in a statement. “The internet created online businesses. Mobile created the app economy. AI agents are next, and they need to be able to access the global economy, and AgentCard is how that starts.”

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CME Group Sues CFTC Over Crypto Perpetual Futures

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CME Group Sues CFTC Over Crypto Perpetual Futures

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group said it was taking legal action against the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over cryptocurrency perpetual futures.

In a Thursday filing in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, CME filed a complaint against the CFTC and its chair Michael Selig over the agency’s regular approvals of perpetual futures tied to crypto. The lawsuit stemmed from a May 29 notice from the CFTC approving perpetual futures contracts tied to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC) for prediction markets platform Kalshi and issuing a no-action position for similar products on cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.

According to CME’s filing, the CFTC’s approval of such products went against directives from the US Congress by treating “futures” as “swaps” with expiration dates. The company alleged that the agency was in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act and a court should vacate its actions over perpetual futures, noting that Selig had unilaterally acted without a full panel of five CFTC commissioners.

“With one stroke of his pen, [Selig] overrode Congress’s definition of the term ‘swap’ and circumvented the regulatory regime Congress required for that form of derivative,” said the complaint, adding:

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“The CFTC’s failure to evenhandedly, consistently, and correctly apply the CEA risks harming competition and destabilizing derivatives markets.”

Source: PACER

The lawsuit came just one day after CME CEO Terrence Duffy said that the company would be taking legal action against the CFTC. In a Monday CNBC interview, Selig said that perpetual futures contracts “trade very similarly” to others, describing the CFTC’s position as “good for investors” and claiming that the Commodity Exchange Act “does not define the term ‘futures contract.’”

A CFTC spokesperson told Cointelegraph that CME had engaged in “lawfare” against the agency and the administration’s crypto policies, calling the complaint “frivolous.”

Related: ICE, CME press US regulators to ‘rein in’ Hyperliquid energy trading: Report

Kraken also announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for US users through CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.

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CME CEO Terry Duffy. Source: CNBC Fast Money

Selig acts alone on prediction markets, perpetual futures, CFTC agenda

Confirmed by the US Senate in December 2025, Selig remains the chair and sole commissioner at the CFTC in a leadership panel intended to consist of a bipartisan group of five people. As of Thursday, US President Donald Trump had not announced any nominations to fill the seats, despite urging from many members of Congress to do so.

Magazine: OpenAI files for IPO, SEC scraps 611 rule and Hungary overhauls crypto: Hodlers Digest June 7-13

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Stock Jumps 5% on Planck Dynamics NeuraWave System Order

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • QUBT stock advanced following Planck Dynamics’ order of five NeuraWave platforms for 2026 delivery.

  • The NeuraWave agreement provides QCi with tangible commercial momentum in AI computing markets.

  • The partnership with Planck Dynamics opens defense sector opportunities for QCi’s photonic technology.

  • A possible $10M expansion hinges on achieving specific milestones and customer requirements.

  • NeuraWave leverages photonic reservoir computing for edge AI applications requiring minimal latency.

Shares of Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) advanced following news that Planck Dynamics had placed an order for the company’s NeuraWave technology. QUBT stock traded at $10.34, representing a 5.78% gain, as investors responded to the commercial validation. The shares briefly touched $10.50 during intraday trading before stabilizing near session highs.

Quantum Computing, Inc., QUBT

NeuraWave Contract Lifts QUBT Stock

Quantum Computing announced that Planck Dynamics has committed to an initial purchase of five NeuraWave computing systems. Delivery is scheduled for 2026, with technical coordination work commencing immediately. This purchase order establishes QCi’s first commercial foothold in photonic reservoir computing applications.

The arrangement establishes a foundation for potential expansion of NeuraWave deployments moving forward. QCi indicated the overall program value could surpass $10 million based on achievement of specified performance benchmarks. Additional system orders remain contingent upon Planck Dynamics reaching development targets and satisfying contractual requirements.

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Planck Dynamics functions as part of NUNC Capital BV’s investment portfolio based in the Netherlands. The firm specializes in defense applications and develops real-time analytical systems for operational environments. This collaboration positions QCi’s photonic technology within a rigorous, performance-driven sector.

Photonic Computing Partnership Focuses on Edge Applications

QCi engineered NeuraWave specifically for temporal artificial intelligence and time-series data analysis tasks. The platform employs photonic reservoir computing architecture to deliver rapid, efficient processing of sophisticated datasets. Consequently, it addresses scenarios where centralized computing infrastructure introduces unacceptable latency.

The collaborative program will validate electro-optic computing capabilities for advanced AI processing needs. It seeks to enable both commercial and governmental applications across diverse operational contexts. The initiative emphasizes rapid response times, minimal energy consumption, and instantaneous analytical output.

This application domain is significant because edge computing architectures process information at or near data generation points. Such systems frequently support sensor arrays, mobile platforms, and geographically distributed infrastructure. Thus, QCi has tailored NeuraWave for scenarios where processing speed and reduced power requirements are mission-critical.

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Commercial Validation Strengthens QCi Strategy

Quantum Computing has centered its business approach on quantum optics and integrated photonic technologies. The firm aims to transition advanced computing capabilities from laboratory environments into practical commercial deployments. This partnership delivers tangible evidence of customer demand supporting that strategic direction.

Both organizations will develop a detailed Statement of Work governing the partnership activities. This document will define technical milestones, system integration objectives, and implementation timelines. It will serve as the roadmap for continued collaboration between QCi and Planck Dynamics throughout the project lifecycle.

While the agreement doesn’t ensure the complete $10 million program materialization, it provides QUBT with substantive positive news following a turbulent trading period. The contract also validates growing market recognition of photonic computing solutions for sophisticated AI applications.

 

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Markets are set for a much more hawkish Warsh Fed than expected

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Why the Warsh Fed sees interest rate hikes ahead
Why the Warsh Fed sees interest rate hikes ahead

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tough talk on inflation Wednesday reverberated through financial markets, with traders expecting that the central bank could start jacking up interest rates in just a few months.

Tapped to serve by President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded lower rates, Warsh during a news conference instead focused on the battle against inflation, which has run above the Fed’s official 2% target for five years.

“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” he said. “I am pleased to report that members of the [Federal Open Market Committee] are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.”

Markets immediately took notice as the new central bank leader sought to establish his inflation-fighting credentials.

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The 2-year Treasury yield, seen as a market reflection of Fed moves, soared as Warsh spoke.

At the same time, futures market traders began placing bets on when the next rate hike would come. The probability for an increase at the July 28-29 meeting quickly climbed to about 1-in-3. Odds for a September hike spiked to 67% around midday Thursday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.

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Dispelling the Warsh narrative

Moreover, traders priced in largely tighter Fed policy well into the future too.

The odds of a second hike by September 2027 rose above 45%. Even further out, the market-implied fed funds rate for May 2031 stood at 4.78%, indicating as many as five hikes in as many years from the current target range of 3.50%-3.75%.

A popular narrative that Warsh was sent to the Fed to ease monetary policy at all costs was quickly dispelled within the space of a 40-minute parley with reporters. At times serious and other times light-hearted, the session was notable for the inflation focus, with Warsh referring to “price stability” a dozen times.

Market veteran Ed Yardeni said he was “blown away” by Warsh’s remarks.

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“We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate (FFR) because he believes that AI is boosting productivity and economic growth while keeping a lid on inflation,” the head of Yardeni Research said in an overnight note. “Instead, he hammered home a strict, orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability.”

The pivot to inflation fighter shook investors, with stock market averages diving along with the spike in Treasury yields.

But apprehension about a possibly hawkish Warsh Fed dissipated Thursday as Wall Street digested the FOMC meeting outcome and focused more on positive developments in the Iran war and the prospect for lower energy costs ahead. Stocks rallied and yields were flat to lower.

Some positives on inflation

There seems reason for optimism that the chairman’s position in retrospect could be seen as a good deal of saber-rattling amid what might already be positive prospects for inflation. Even with popular inflation gauges at multi-year highs and well above the Fed’s 2% target, underlying pressures are easing, with core inflation up just 0.2% in the month in May.

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Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, thinks the Fed actually won’t make any moves this year on rates as it watches the shifting inflation dynamics and other factors play out.

“Far be it for me to disagree with the futures market, but I would be surprised if the Fed raises interest rates this year,” Clemons said. “It is an election year. This is already a hyper-politicized environment. There’s already concerns about politicization at the Fed. I’m not sure they want to feed that.”

In the past, Warsh has said it’s generally prudent to look through temporary supply disruptions that hit prices.

Commodity costs, in fact, are up just 6% since the war began in late February and have come off their May peak by some 17%, as measured by the S&P GSCI index. Should inflation ease and commodity prices continue to retreat — the price of gasoline dipped below $4 a gallon Thursday, according to AAA — and the economy wobble, that could get the central bank back into an easing posture.

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“For now, for the markets, Warsh’s message was comforting and unsettling,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note. “In declaring that inflation will be dealt with in no uncertain terms was comforting. By saying that markets will decide where to set rates rather than having them set with an eye to where the Fed wants them set was unsettling (to today’s traders, but this should, ultimately, prove comforting).”

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U.S. agencies seek stablecoin customer-ID rules akin to banks in new GENIUS Act rule

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Fed proposes rule to deal with crypto debanking by scrapping 'reputation risk'

These standards, according to the rule proposal, “must include reasonable procedures for: (1) verifying the identity of any person seeking to open an account to the extent reasonable and practicable; (2) maintaining records of the information used to verify a person’s identity, including name, address, and other identifying information; and (3) determining whether the person appears on any lists of known or suspected terrorists or terrorist organizations provided to the financial institution by any government agency.”

The Fed opened a 60-day public comment period alongside the other agencies in the joint effort, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., National Credit Union Administration and the Treasury Department’s financial-crimes arm.

In September, the regulators had issued a more preliminary document seeking comments to direct their GENIUS implementation in this and other areas, and the Treasury received 450 comments. This new stage is known as a “notice of proposed rulemaking,” which comes with another comment period and review before the agencies can eventually issue final joint rules and begin enforcing the regulations.

The Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has pursued its own related rule to apply the GENIUS Act anti-money laundering provisions on issuers.

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